I think Shanahan has set this up three ways.
1) He keeps Carlyle on for the "final year" of his contract. Mike Babcock comes available next summer, he is hired, Spott remains on to work with the kids until he get his own NHL head coaching job.
2) He keeps Carlyle on for the "final year" of his contract. Todd McLellan comes available next summer, he is hired, Spott remains on to work with the kids until he get his own NHL head coaching job.
3) He keeps Carlyle on for the "final year" of his contract. Neither Babcock nor McLellan become available, or go elsewhere. Spott is promoted to head coach, Derek King and Gord Dineen are promoted to be the Maple Leafs. Tim Horachek remains unless he gets a job elsewhere.
So, either he gets one of his two guys in Babcock/McLellan, or he has Steve Spott who has gone through the whole organization and is both a good coach and is familiar with all our young players, but during this upcoming season, familiar with our "veteran" players.
Win-Win-Win.
I mean, you can add that Carlyle makes the necessary changes, the Leafs make the playoffs, go a couple rounds, and suddenly he looks good as our coach again, and that throws everything out of wack.
Buuuuuut I don't think that will happen, and I don't think Shanahan/Leiweke do either