LD Zeev Buium - University of Denver, NCAA (2024 Draft)

[WarriorofTime]

That's not at all the argument I made, but fire away at that strawman.

You don't assess a late birthday ('05 this year) with a normal draft birthyear ('06) based on what the '05 did the previous year (their 17YR old development year) rather you try to predict how the '06 will develop and how they will do in their 18YR old development year (where Buium and other '05s are now).

In simpler terms, scouts get to see Buium play an extra development year before getting to draft him, which is great for Buium since he's taken a massive step forward this year.

Truly unbelievable you fail to grasp this basic concept.

This is completely wrong. You're saying the same thing in a roundabout way. All players are assessed based on where they are today and where they project going forward. Nobody gets bonus points for being in the first 70 % of their birth year. The summer birthdays (June/July/August/first half of September) can get a bit of chatter for relative age effect that comes from never getting to be the early birthday Minor Hockey superstar, plus no additional year at the end before their draft, but that's as far as it goes. You would think being wrong time and time again on how late birthday players are assessed and how they do once drafted would change your tune, but you are obstinant on this.

 

[BKarchitect]

That's not at all the argument I made, but fire away at that strawman.

You don't assess a late birthday ('05 this year) with a normal draft birthyear ('06) based on what the '05 did the previous year (their 17YR old development year) rather you try to predict how the '06 will develop and how they will do in their 18YR old development year (where Buium and other '05s are now).

In simpler terms, scouts get to see Buium play an extra development year before getting to draft him, which is great for Buium since he's taken a massive step forward this year.

Truly unbelievable you fail to grasp this basic concept.

Why wouldn’t you assess NHL draft picks based on their actually first year of eligibility? You’ve got to draw a line in the sand somewhere. Elite is elite. Buffalo didn’t pass on Owen Powers and Columbus didn’t pass on Adam Fantilli because they thought they had an extra year of development. They were judged against the draft class they were in.

 

[Hale The Villain]

August 2005-July 2006
American high school seniors, basically.

Buium more impressive than Hutson because he accelerated

Buium accelated his schooling, but he didn't jump up a level early ala Celebrini.

Both Buium and Hutson spent 3 years playing AAA from 13-15 and then played their 16 and 17 year old development years for the USNTDP.

Then because of the Sep 15 draft cutoff put in place by the NHL to prevent minors from playing NHL games, Hutson (born in Feb '04) got drafted prior to his freshman season while Buium (born in Dec '05) got an extra year to impress the scouts but is in the same development year as his other USNTDP teammates Perreault, Smith, Leonard, etc... as an '05.

Why wouldn’t you assess NHL draft picks based on their actually first year of eligibility? You’ve got to draw a line in the sand somewhere. Elite is elite. Buffalo didn’t pass on Owen Powers and Columbus didn’t pass on Adam Fantilli because they thought they had an extra year of development. They were judged against the draft class they were in.

You absolutely do. There seems to be a disconnect here on that point.

Buium is absolutely being judged against the players in his draft class. It's just the case he's gotten an extra year to show his stuff compared to the '06s and scouts understand that he's a year ahead in development compared to someone like his former teammate Eiserman.

What Fantilli and Power did in their 18YR old development years was very impressive so of course they deserved to get drafted very high. Same goes for Buium, but if someone thinks he did what Celebrini did and jumped a level a year early they may overrate his potential as a result.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Buium accelated his schooling, but he didn't jump up a level early ala Celebrini.

Both Buium and Hutson spent 3 years playing AAA from 13-15 and then played their 16 and 17 year old development years for the USNTDP.

Then because of the Sep 15 draft cutoff put in place by the NHL to prevent minors from playing NHL games, Hutson (born in Feb '04) got drafted prior to his freshman season while Buium (born in Dec '05) got an extra year to impress the scouts but is in the same development year as his other USNTDP teammates Perreault, Smith, Leonard, etc... as an '05.



You absolutely do. There seems to be a disconnect here on that point.

Buium is absolutely being judged against the players in his draft class. It's just the case he's gotten an extra year to show his stuff compared to the '06s and scouts understand that he's a year ahead in development compared to someone like his former teammate Eiserman.

What Fantilli and Power did in their 18YR old development years was very impressive so of course they deserved to get drafted very high. Same goes for Buium, but if someone thinks he did what Celebrini did and jumped a level a year early they may overrate his potential as a result.

Buium was almost 10 months younger his Freshman year than Hutson was in his.

Stepping back, it was arguably more impressive for Buium to even make the USNDTP in his year than it was Hutson in his due to relative age effect. Here were some numbers at the latest USNDTP Evaluation Camp.

10 January
8 February
8 March

= 26 first quarter of the year

3 April
1 May
4 June

= 8 second quarter of the year
= 34 first half of the year

2 July
1 August
5 September

= 8 third quarter of the year
= 42 first three quarters of the year

1 October
3 November
1 December

= 5 fourth quarter of the year
= 13 second half of the year

This isn't a variance, it's a pattern that people year over year are aware about. 26 invites first three months versus 13 invites in the entire last six months, lol. Giving those late birthday kids an extra year before their draft is the least they can do after paddling upstream their whole time to even get to that point.

As far as Celebrini and Buium, certainly nobody questions Celebrini's credentials and ability to do it at such a young age. They are both Shattuck kids.

2019-20: San Jose Jr. Sharks 14U AAA compared to Shattuck 14U AAA
2020-21: Shattuck 14U AAA compared to Shattuck 15U AAA
2021-22: Shattuck 18U Prep compared to USNDTP U17 team
2022-23: Chicago Steel compared to USNDTP U18 team
2023-24: Boston University compared to University of Denver

The biggest skipping here came in 2021 when Celebrini skipped the Shattucks 15U team entirely and jumped straight to the Prep team. You can just relative age effect the two players (Buium 6 months older than Celebrini) and accomplish what you need.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Buium was almost 10 months younger his Freshman year than Hutson was in his.

Stepping back, it was arguably more impressive for Buium to even make the USNDTP in his year than it was Hutson in his due to relative age effect. Here were some numbers at the latest USNDTP Evaluation Camp.


This isn't a variance, it's a pattern that people year over year are aware about. 26 invites first three months versus 13 invites in the entire last six months, lol. Giving those late birthday kids an extra year before their draft is the least they can do after paddling upstream their whole time to even get to that point.

As far as Celebrini and Buium, certainly nobody questions Celebrini's credentials and ability to do it at such a young age. They are both Shattuck kids.

2019-20: San Jose Jr. Sharks 14U AAA compared to Shattuck 14U AAA
2020-21: Shattuck 14U AAA compared to Shattuck 15U AAA
2021-22: Shattuck 18U Prep compared to USNDTP U17 team
2022-23: Chicago Steel compared to USNDTP U18 team
2023-24: Boston University compared to University of Denver

The biggest skipping here came in 2021 when Celebrini skipped the Shattucks 15U team entirely and jumped straight to the Prep team. You can just relative age effect the two players (Buium 6 months older than Celebrini) and accomplish what you need.

Your argument seems to be development seasons don't matter as much as relative age, and that's obviously where we have a disagreement.

I don't put nearly as much weight towards whether a player is born early in the year or later in the year as you do, but to correct you on Celebrini vs. Buium, both spent two years at Shattuck St. Mary's (albeit facing different competition), then Celebrini made the jump to the NCAA after a single USHL season, while Buium played two USHL seasons before his freshman season. That's the obvious difference, not that Celebrini played on the better Shattucks team in the same development season.

I think the rule of thumb should always be to look at number of development seasons prior to being drafted, then afterwards provide consideration to whether a player is slightly less physically/mentally developed due to being born earlier in the year.

For example, Gabriel Perreault played AAA between 13-15, then two years of USNTDP from 16-17 just like his fellow '05 Buium, but he was born in May, while Buium was born in December. Can give bonus points and extra consideration that Buium was 7 months younger in the same development seasons, but it's definitely smarter to compare them vs. comparing Buium to an '06 like Celebrini.

 

[WarriorofTime]

For example, Gabriel Perreault played AAA between 13-15, then two years of USNTDP from 16-17 just like his fellow '05 Buium, but he was born in May, while Buium was born in December. Can give bonus points and extra consideration that Buium was 7 months younger in the same development seasons, but it's definitely smarter to compare them vs. comparing Buium to an '06 like Celebrini.

Perreault isn’t getting drafted this year so there’s no use in looking that way. You need to do an assessment of Buium with the 06 NDTP guys up for the draft like defensemen Cole Hutson and EJ Emery. Them being a year behind in NDTP years only matters to the extent that you think between now and the next five or six years they project out better than Buium.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He’ll be in the league next year.

Maybe the end of it. I think he’s going to go back for his sophomore season.

I don’t know where you live but Zeev is a class of ‘24 high school graduate in the States and this statement is patently false. School years aren’t done by birth year like the NHL draft. Kids his age (September and later 05) are just graduating high school next month.

Celebrini just happens to have accelerated and is also young for his class which makes him seem extra young in college.

It depends where in the country you live. Some states do an almost NHL draft like end of one year to end of next year class and other states do it by what year you are born.

 

[majormajor]

The concept of counting "development seasons" is nonsense to me.

Every day of a kid's life is a development day. It only partly matters what program you are in. Their brains and bodies are gradually improving throughout. Age (not year) remains the best starting point at determining how much runway a player has left.

We have athletes in each draft coming from leagues all around the world, from many different leagues. They don't all start playing hockey or elite hockey at the same time. You certainly factor that information in when you can, but you can't tally up development seasons as any sort of objective measure, because all of those leagues are different from each other and being in the highest one isn't necessarily better for development.

Athletes who start at a higher level sooner can gain an advantage from that if they are good enough to keep being top players on those teams at a younger age, but don't forget that it actually puts them at a development disadvantage if they are below average up against the older players and lose opportunity that way.* And perhaps that sort of disadvantage is largely compensated by a later development spike (see Tij Iginla moving up from a depth role in Portland). That's all the more reason to not muddy the waters with "development seasons", just use age and make some adjustments from there to take a guess on a player's remaining runway.

*I believe, if I remember the study correctly, that there are fewer Fall birthday NHLers but they are disproportionately elite. This would make sense if more prospects got removed early on by being on the younger side of their age group, but the remaining players did much better than average.

It's just the case he's gotten an extra year to show his stuff

That doesn't mean anything. If a player isn't progressing scouts are going to eventually knock him. Everyone's guessing at the trajectory. They don't count years, they count how good you are, and how much improvement you've shown.

If anything I think Buium often being the youngest player in his age group would have put him under the radar for scouts, I bet many of them are re-evaluating him right now.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Perreault isn’t getting drafted this year so there’s no use in looking that way. You need to do an assessment of Buium with the 06 NDTP guys up for the draft like defensemen Cole Hutson and EJ Emery. Them being a year behind in NDTP years only matters to the extent that you think between now and the next five or six years they project out better than Buium.

Scouts will assess Buium relative to Hutson and Emery because they are forced to be in the same draft class, but they'll undoubtedly also compare their development years statistically, as production is a fairly good indicator of offensive ability and projection to higher levels.

It happens to be the case that both Hutson brothers have superior numbers on paper for the USNTDP in the same development year, but that doesn't mean their skillsets are the same or that Cole Hutson is going to pop off with 50 points in his freshman season next year, which is why Buium fully deserves to go significantly higher.

 

[rt]

Buium turned 18 9 weeks into the season,
Hutson turned 19 18 weeks into his Freshman year.

Hutson was 18 for almost 90% of his Freshman year and Buium was 17 for say 35% of his Freshman year so about 65% of the time he was 18.

If Buium was born 11 weeks sooner he would have gone in last summers draft.

A December birthday is literally average age for any given class.

 

[Mattb124]

It isn't uniform. My '04 born child is finishing his 2-year college degree this year while my '06 child is graduating HS this year.

You are correct, it isn’t uniform. The people who pretend it is do not know what they are talking about. The cut-off here in CA for someone his age would have been November. My daughter won’t turn 18 until October of her freshman year.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Most everyone in the states has Sept 1 or August 15 cutoff. I turned 18 Jan of my senior year.

Most people in the States have a summer cut-off. But it varies district to district. Where I grew up in Indiana, cut date was July 1

 

[19Simon19]

Here's my Scouting Report on Zeev Buium.

 

[majormajor]

Here's my Scouting Report on Zeev Buium.

Simon, what did you think of Buium's games in the NCAA championships?

All of these prospects get away with things at the lower levels that we know they can't do at the NHL level, our judgment depends largely on whether we give them credit for being able to adapt. I saw Buium in the finals picking his spots better, not overcarrying. And I thought he defended much much better, certainly compared to early in the year. I wasn't able to tell from your clips when they occurred, to get a better sense of his progression. Seeing the dates of the games would be helpful, by the way, though I don't think any youtube scouts put dates on their clips.

 

[UpsideHockey]

icymi

Zeev Buium - Upside Hockey NHL Draft Prospect Profile​

bit.ly/zeevbuium

 

[57special]

Here's my Scouting Report on Zeev Buium.

interesting take, Simon. I don't disagree with anything you said, really, except maybe a bit about his strength, but i have a higher overall opinion of him. I have all sorts of time for players who can control the puck as he does, at a higher level of hockey than the CHL. He was often playing against opponents 3-5 years older, who had their man strength, and i thought Buium showed he was very sturdy on his skates. His upper body strength will come ... sometimes you can't rush maturity.

He will have to learn to move the puck more quickly at higher levels of hockey, but i actually prefer players who hold onto a bit too long as prospects, as i believe it allows them to develop their puck skills, and push the boundaries of said skills. The ultimate example of this is Bobby Orr, who said many times that he would've never turned into the player he was if he had played more of a systems game, rather than the pond hockey he played growing up.

I love the imagination the Buium has in his skating and puck handling, and while i do agree that he doesn't have great speed, it's decent, and one can easily project him having above average speed with maturity and a bit of technique work. i don't think it's a problem, nor is his passing, which is more than good enough, as he creates many open lanes with his unpredictable moves.

My main question with him is his defense. Not so much defending line rushes and getting beaten to the outside(a classic problem with LHD), as that can be fixed with hard work and technique improvements. I also don't have a problem with his puck handling in the d zone...he'll learn to move it faster, i think. It's more about his play in the D zone before he gets the puck. It doesn't look bad....just sort of there. I just don't know if he cares about playing D, in general. It's sort of like a guy in baseball who is a great hitter, but only plays the field well enough so he can get his AB's.

In some ways, i wonder if he benefits from being compared to a guy like Parekh, who is less physically imposing, a worse defender, playing in a lesser league.

 

[coooldude]

My main question with him is his defense. Not so much defending line rushes and getting beaten to the outside(a classic problem with LHD), as that can be fixed with hard work and technique improvements. I also don't have a problem with his puck handling in the d zone...he'll learn to move it faster, i think. It's more about his play in the D zone before he gets the puck. It doesn't look bad....just sort of there. I just don't know if he cares about playing D, in general. It's sort of like a guy in baseball who is a great hitter, but only plays the field well enough so he can get his AB's.

I agree I'm high on Buium, apparently even moreso than you because I disagreed with this part -- from my viewings during the NCAA Tourney, he was very sound and active in the D zone. Played a very high IQ, good positioning, active stick, and firm on his skates D zone game. I thought it looked like he very much cared about playing D to the point where he was far more reserved in his overall game in order to play that sound D, with the results being obvious. Trusted as a freshman against other best-in-country, top-of-world prospect freshman and sophomores on BU and BC, and stymied them defensively more than imposing his game offensively.

I think if he were solidly 6'2" rather than the 6'0.5" he probably is, he'd be in more general conversation for first D off the board.

 

[57special]

I agree I'm high on Buium, apparently even moreso than you because I disagreed with this part -- from my viewings during the NCAA Tourney, he was very sound and active in the D zone. Played a very high IQ, good positioning, active stick, and firm on his skates D zone game. I thought it looked like he very much cared about playing D to the point where he was far more reserved in his overall game in order to play that sound D, with the results being obvious. Trusted as a freshman against other best-in-country, top-of-world prospect freshman and sophomores on BU and BC, and stymied them defensively more than imposing his game offensively.

I think if he were solidly 6'2" rather than the 6'0.5" he probably is, he'd be in more general conversation for first D off the board.

Agreed. Will be interesting to see his measurables at the combine. I really like him ... just can't really figure out what he is as a player. I have all sorts of respect for a guy who can play at a really high level in the NCAA as a 18 yo, though.

Levshunov will only be picked before him because he is a RHD and 2" taller. If those attributes were reversed with Buium, he would be picked ahead of him.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

Agreed. Will be interesting to see his measurables at the combine. I really like him ... just can't really figure out what he is as a player. I have all sorts of respect for a guy who can play at a really high level in the NCAA as a 18 yo, though.

Levshunov will only be picked before him because he is a RHD and 2" taller. If those attributes were reversed with Buium, he would be picked ahead of him.

I have Buium ahead of Levshunov in my rankings, but I am predicting that Levshunov will go ahead for those reasons as well.

 

[PatrickMcC]

I really wish he was a RHD, would absolutely love him on the Sens.

 

[Castle8130]

Here's my Scouting Report on Zeev Buium.

Interesting listen. I'm a huge fan of Zeev. I think he is the top defenseman of the draft, but I get some of the issues he had in the NCAA

 

[rt]

Here's my Scouting Report on Zeev Buium.

Hey Simon thanks for posting this. It made me like Buium even more. I think many of the clips you selected playing behind the criticisms you made, caused me to very easily dismiss those criticisms based of what I was seeing in real time. It was an affirming experience. In this case, the prosecution helped the defense immensely.

 

[19Simon19]

Simon, what did you think of Buium's games in the NCAA championships?

All of these prospects get away with things at the lower levels that we know they can't do at the NHL level, our judgment depends largely on whether we give them credit for being able to adapt. I saw Buium in the finals picking his spots better, not overcarrying. And I thought he defended much much better, certainly compared to early in the year. I wasn't able to tell from your clips when they occurred, to get a better sense of his progression. Seeing the dates of the games would be helpful, by the way, though I don't think any youtube scouts put dates on their clips.

I haven't watched his final 2 games yet.

From what it looks, he played really well.

I have so many questions with the players in the 9-15 range that depending on those two games, he could definitely move up a few ranks, for sure.

interesting take, Simon. I don't disagree with anything you said, really, except maybe a bit about his strength, but i have a higher overall opinion of him. I have all sorts of time for players who can control the puck as he does, at a higher level of hockey than the CHL. He was often playing against opponents 3-5 years older, who had their man strength, and i thought Buium showed he was very sturdy on his skates. His upper body strength will come ... sometimes you can't rush maturity.

He will have to learn to move the puck more quickly at higher levels of hockey, but i actually prefer players who hold onto a bit too long as prospects, as i believe it allows them to develop their puck skills, and push the boundaries of said skills. The ultimate example of this is Bobby Orr, who said many times that he would've never turned into the player he was if he had played more of a systems game, rather than the pond hockey he played growing up.

I love the imagination the Buium has in his skating and puck handling, and while i do agree that he doesn't have great speed, it's decent, and one can easily project him having above average speed with maturity and a bit of technique work. i don't think it's a problem, nor is his passing, which is more than good enough, as he creates many open lanes with his unpredictable moves.

My main question with him is his defense. Not so much defending line rushes and getting beaten to the outside(a classic problem with LHD), as that can be fixed with hard work and technique improvements. I also don't have a problem with his puck handling in the d zone...he'll learn to move it faster, i think. It's more about his play in the D zone before he gets the puck. It doesn't look bad....just sort of there. I just don't know if he cares about playing D, in general. It's sort of like a guy in baseball who is a great hitter, but only plays the field well enough so he can get his AB's.

In some ways, i wonder if he benefits from being compared to a guy like Parekh, who is less physically imposing, a worse defender, playing in a lesser league.

Thanks man. You've made some great points on Buium.

 

[Legend123]

Love to see an Israeli, and his brother, do so well. Hopefully, Israel, or the sons of (in this case), can keep producing top end talent

 

[57special]

Love to see an Israeli, and his brother, do so well. Hopefully, Israel, or the sons of (in this case), can keep producing top end talent

I wouldn't hold your breath on that. i don't see a future where Israel becomes the next hockey hotbed.