Lars Eller: Cult of Eller Edition

[Sorinth]

Buddy, there's a reason you can't just take a massive chunk of someone's stats and pretend they don't exist. That's exactly what cherrypicking is, and you did it after saying you wouldn't. That's what is so funny, and it seems to be an extremely common practice among those who think Eller is the second coming of Jesus.

The biggest hole in your argument is that you assume Eller would be just as good or consistently better on the powerplay than Plekanec and Desharnais, and yet have no proof for that whatsoever. So you're punishing Desharnais and especially Plekanec for their powerplay production, taking that away, and using it to Eller's advantage.

I'm not pretending they don't exist I'm comparing players on more equal footing. If Desharnais can't outproduced a supposed 3rd line scrub like Eller without the need for the PP then he just isn't that good to begin with.

And for this supposed hole in my argument; over that same time frame here's the production on the PP per 60min

Plekanec 4.75
Eller 3.57
Desharnais 3.21

 

[CHaracter79]

I think you definitely overrate Eller. You keep repeating that he will outproduce Desharnais and Plekanec when given the same role, and I can't see how that's possible. The only justification for that is you cherrypicking his best stats of the past 5 seasons, and even then, you're still exaggerating when you say Eller had better playoff stats in consecutive years. He had great stats two years ago, but last year it was back to normal.

I know the most common excuse is that Eller's linemates are possibly the worst players ever to play in the NHL, but at some point if Eller is good enough, you'd expect him to find a way to produce. Desharnais was actually really solid when he played on the third line last year, if I remember correctly.

You mean like scoring more goals then the #1 C on the team with almost no PP time ?

 

[JohnLennon]

I'm not pretending they don't exist I'm comparing players on more equal footing. If Desharnais can't outproduced a supposed 3rd line scrub like Eller without the need for the PP then he just isn't that good to begin with.

And for this supposed hole in my argument; over that same time frame here's the production on the PP per 60min

Plekanec 4.75
Eller 3.57
Desharnais 3.21

No you're not! You take out the powerplay stats entirely, which accounts for a ton of the ice time those players earned! How can you not understand that simply removing everyone's powerplay stats and pretending they don't exist makes absolutely no sense?

As for your second set of statistics, he's clearly far behind Plekanec. Not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. Especially since you won't find anyone who thinks Desharnais should be our first line center... Also relevant is that you are choosing the time in Eller's career when he was at his very highest, but he fell hard pretty quickly after that.

Dude..stop digging your hole.

Now even strength is irrelevant, playoffs is irrelevant, Eller decent star over a full year is irrelevant.. quality of linemates is irrelevant.. OK...

One plays mostly of the on the first wave of the PP for about a minute.. the other plays in the last 20 seconds, where the puck is usally deep in the zone. Using that stats IS cherry-picking. So I don't why you insist using that.

You clearly can't accept Eller has offensive potential to outproduce DD and Plekanec when you said even straight stats on 3 seasons is less relevant than ES+PP between a first center and a 3rd center.

I don't even think it's worth responding to you after this. You haven't made a single good argument and you're just putting words in my mouth that I literally never even came close to saying. Who the hell said even strength and playoffs are irrelevant? What are you whining about man?

It's shocking how you can't comprehend that simply removing powerplay points from someone's point total makes no sense. But most people think that Eller is probably a better payer than Desharnais. No way is he better than Plekanec, in my opinion. Most of the stats that the staunch Eller supporters posted even showed that Plekanec is objectively better. Stop creating fake arguments for other people so you can attack them. This entire post of yours had no content and was utterly useless.

You mean like scoring more goals then the #1 C on the team with almost no PP time ?

It's shocking that you read that far back but yet still happened to miss that I've repeated over and over that I prefer Eller over Desharnais...?

 

[optimus2861]

No you're not! You take out the powerplay stats entirely, which accouts for a ton of the ice time those players earned!

Using the word "earned" on a team coached by Michel Therrien is funny.

 

[LaP]

No you're not! You take out the powerplay stats entirely, which accouts for a ton of the ice time those players earned! How can you not understand that simply removing everyone's powerplay stats and pretending they don't exist makes ansolutely no sense?

As for your second set of statistics, he's clearly far behind Plekanec. Not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. Especially since you won't find anyone who thinks Desharnais should be our first line center...

So what does make sense exactly?

Anyone who remotely know hockey already know DD is not a first line center. At this point we got to try someone else.

There's 2 options. Eller or Galchenyuk. Make your choice mine is already done. I would try Galchenyuk. But Eller could be tried too.

Saying Eller has never shown any sign of top 6 production is being totally dishonest. He has certainly shown he is inconsistent and that he should not be able to do the job as a top 6 for a long period of time but he has certainly shown enough to get a try if this is the option the team chose.

But all this doesn't matter. We need to try someone else. Eller is just one of the options that has never been tried.

 

[CHaracter79]

Buddy, there's a reason you can't just take a massive chunk of someone's stats and pretend they don't exist. That's exactly what cherrypicking is, and you did it after saying you wouldn't. That's what is so funny, and it seems to be an extremely common practice among those who think Eller is the second coming of Jesus.

Im all for Eller staying on the third line.. hopefully we could improve on our # 1C seein as how our #3 C had more goals then him.

but how could you compare two players that dont have equal playin time on the PP..

 

[JohnLennon]

Im all for Eller staying on the third line.. hopefully we could improve on our # 1C seein as how our #3 C had more goals then him.

but how could you compare two players that dont have equal playin time on the PP..

Probably not by removing their entire season's worth of powerplay points and then pro-rating whatever is left. I agree, though, I'd prefer Eller as our third line center, but I also don't want Desharnais as our top center either.

 

[CHaracter79]

No you're not! You take out the powerplay stats entirely, which accounts for a ton of the ice time those players earned! How can you not understand that simply removing everyone's powerplay stats and pretending they don't exist makes absolutely no sense?

As for your second set of statistics, he's clearly far behind Plekanec. Not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. Especially since you won't find anyone who thinks Desharnais should be our first line center... Also relevant is that you are choosing the time in Eller's career when he was at his very highest, but he fell hard pretty quickly after that.



I don't even think it's worth responding to you after this. You haven't made a single good argument and you're just putting words in my mouth that I literally never even came close to saying. Who the hell said even strength and playoffs are irrelevant? What are you whining about man?

It's shocking how you can't comprehend that simply removing powerplay points from someone's point total makes no sense. But most people think that Eller is probably a better payer than Desharnais. No way is he better than Plekanec, in my opinion. Most of the stats that the staunch Eller supporters posted even showed that Plekanec is objectively better. Stop creating fake arguments for other people so you can attack them. This entire post of yours had no content and was utterly useless.



It's shocking that you read that far back but yet still happened to miss that I've repeated over and over that I prefer Eller over Desharnais...?

well i was only stating a fact. regardless of your position

 

[JohnLennon]

So what does make sense exactly?

Anyone who remotely know hockey already know DD is not a first line center. At this point we got to try someone else.

There's 2 options. Eller or Galchenyuk. Make your choice mine is already done. I would try Galchenyuk. But Eller could be tried too.

Saying Eller has never shown any sign of top 6 production is being totally dishonest. He has certainly shown he is inconsistent and that he should not be able to do the job as a top 6 for a long period of time but he has certainly shown enough to get a try if this is the option the team chose.

But all this doesn't matter. We need to try someone else. Eller is just one of the options that has never been tried.

My choice has always been Galchenyuk. I just don't think Eller is good enough for the top 6 right now. But you make a good point in saying that Eller has definitely shown offensive upside for the top 6. His problem is that these are almost always brief flashes, and he is plagued with inconsistency, as you said. Unless he fixes that, he is a third liner. I am totally not against giving Eller a shot and hopefully he impresses, but Galchenyuk is my guy.

 

[Nynja*]

Buddy, there's a reason you can't just take a massive chunk of someone's stats and pretend they don't exist.

So you see nothing wrong with comparing Davey's powerplay points to Eller's lack of powerplay points (due to lack of powerplay ice time), at all? Its perfectly legitimate to add Davey's PP points to his running total to show his offensive dominance over Eller who was never given any PP time to begin with?

Who is cherry picking again?

 

[LaP]

but how could you compare two players that dont have equal playin time on the PP..

You can't and it should not be done.

The DD versus Eller debate is asinine at best.

Eller being bad in the mind of some people doesn't make DD good and DD being bad in the mind of others doesn't make Eller any better.

The bottom line is DD production is not good enough. There's nothing more to be said. Plekanec is a better center than DD but can't be number 1 either.

So we have 3 options.

1. Definitively move Galchenyuk at center and trade DD or Eller for a winger (best option imo).
2. Try Galchenyuk at center and move Eller or DD on the wing until the trade deadline and then re-evaluate (2nd best option).
3. Try Eller as a first line center and DD as a 3rd center until the trade deadline and then re-evaluate (3rd option).

While the 3rd option is not the one i would try it's still a viable option cause despite what the Eller haters might say we have absolutely not solid proof it would not work we just think it would not cause Eller is inconsistent.

I don't really care what MT does as long as DD and Plekanec are not our two top 6 centers next season. In fact if we can have a very good return (winger) for Plekanec i would not even mind him being traded and DD being used as a 2nd line center and Eller as the 3rd both having about equal 5 on 5 ice time but DD playing on the PP and Eller on the PK.

As long as something is tried to address the lack of scoring i don't care what it is. Replacing Weise for Kassian is not what i would personally call trying something.

 

[CHaracter79]

Probably not by removing their entire season's worth of powerplay points and then pro-rating whatever is left. I agree, though, I'd prefer Eller as our third line center, but I also don't want Desharnais as our top center either.

its the closest possible comparaison.. with no PP time.

It makes sense.

none of them have that advantage

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

I don't even think it's worth responding to you after this. You haven't made a single good argument and you're just putting words in my mouth that I literally never even came close to saying. Who the hell said even strength and playoffs are irrelevant? What are you whining about man?

It's shocking how you can't comprehend that simply removing powerplay points from someone's point total makes no sense. But most people think that Eller is probably a better payer than Desharnais. No way is he better than Plekanec, in my opinion. Most of the stats that the staunch Eller supporters posted even showed that Plekanec is objectively better. Stop creating fake arguments for other people so you can attack them. This entire post of yours had no content and was utterly useless.

When Eller's playoffs is brought up and compared to DD's and Plekanec's, you keep saying it has doesn't mean much. Yet you keep saying that you have no idea how Eller can outproduce DD and Plekanec.

You feel the need to add powerplay stats between 2 players that doesn't have the same role the PP at all, so i dont see how is it a fair comparaison. DD plays on the 2 first wave of the PP, with the best players.. Eller plays 15-20 seconds with his 3rd line wingers.. How can you think that's a fair comparaison.

Also, since when PP stats are that important. DD plays about 2 min per game vs 14-15min at even strength. Eller plays about 20 seconds of PP per game on 12-13 min on ES.

I'd understand that if we compare Plek and DD, we can use the PP since they play about the same on the PP..

Comparing their even strength production is much more valid and precise than ES+PP.

 

[Nynja*]

I don't really care what MT does as long as DD and Plekanec are not our two top 6 centers next season.

Whats wrong with Pleks as #2C? He excels in that role. Look at Patrice Bergeron in Boston this year, spent half the season as #1C because Krjeci was injured, and he looked significantly worse than as #2C.

 

[JohnLennon]

When Eller's playoffs is brought up and compared to DD's and Plekanec's, you keep saying it has doesn't mean much. Yet you keep saying that you have no idea how Eller can outproduce DD and Plekanec.

You feel the need to add powerplay stats between 2 players that doesn't have the same role the PP at all, so i dont see how is it a fair comparaison. DD plays on the 2 first wave of the PP, with the best players.. Eller plays 15-20 seconds with his 3rd line wingers.. How can you think that's a fair comparaison.

Also, since when PP stats are that important. DD plays about 2 min per game vs 14-15min at even strength. Eller plays about 20 seconds of PP per game on 12-13 min on ES.

I'd understand that if we compare Plek and DD, we can use the PP since they play about the same on the PP..

Comparing their even strength production is much more valid and precise than ES+PP.

At this point I'm sure you're confusing me with someone else. I'd like to see you quote me on that.

 

[JohnLennon]

So you see nothing wrong with comparing Davey's powerplay points to Eller's lack of powerplay points (due to lack of powerplay ice time), at all? Its perfectly legitimate to add Davey's PP points to his running total to show his offensive dominance over Eller who was never given any PP time to begin with?

Who is cherry picking again?

Do you even know what cherrypicking stats means? Also, I think comparig their stats is completely stupid because they're in two completely different roles. You'll notice I never compared their stats, only you and others did. It doesn't take away from the fact that simply removing a set of stats from a player in order to facilitate a comparison makes no sense.

its the closest possible comparaison.. with no PP time.

It makes sense.

none of them have that advantage

It doesn't make sense and will never make sense to compare the production of two players in entirely different roles, especially when you remove an entire set of their points.

 

[LaP]

Whats wrong with Pleks as #2C? He excels in that role. Look at Patrice Bergeron in Boston this year, spent half the season as #1C because Krjeci was injured, and he looked significantly worse than as #2C.

I meant DD+Plekanek are not the two used. One can be.

It can be Galchenyuk+Plekanec.
Even Galchenyuk + DD if Plekanec can land a good top 6 winger.
Or Galchenyul+Plekanec+Eller with DD on the wing.
Or Galchenyuk+Plekanec+DD with Eller on the wing.

 

[Dagenais Bar Down*]

Whats wrong with Pleks as #2C? He excels in that role. Look at Patrice Bergeron in Boston this year, spent half the season as #1C because Krjeci was injured, and he looked significantly worse than as #2C.

That is a bit of a disservice to a player like Bergeron. They are more of a 1A/1B, and if Bergeron were injured I think you'd find that Krejci looks significantly less like a 1A or 1B.

 

[Tourist]

Eller and DD have generally played completely different roles under Therrien so it's difficult to adequately compare them solely based on stats.

DD does play with better offensive linemates, have more offensive zone starts and PP time, so obviously he has more opportunities to accumulate points.

However, by centering Pacioretty, he also has to face better defensive players. The other team is much more aware defensively when he steps on the ice simply because of Pacioretty's presence, who is easily our best offensive weapon. Moreover, by being used as a go-to offensive player, DD has a more pressure to put up points.

Eller has never operated under these conditions for a full season. His mandate has mostly been to lead the shutdown line, win defensive zone faceoffs, safely get the puck out of the zone into the opponent's territory, score some points here or there. He performs these important tasks well, especially considering how his numbers stack up against numbers of other players from other teams playing a similar role. If he was given more offensive responsibilities, he would surely produce more but it's difficult to predict at what rate because he's never consistently played against the best defenders or had the pressure to be a go-to offensive weapon. Also worth noting, when Eller steps on the ice right now his main job is to provide good defense. If he is put in a more offensive role, will that affect his defensive soundness? It's easier to play excellent defense when your main focus is defense, much harder when you are actually relied on to score points too. This is what makes a player like Toews so special, the ability to put up points all the while playing impeccable hockey without the puck.

Anyway, I agree with the sentiment that Eller has produced well enough in his current role to earn an extended look in a more offensive role. But I don't think he has produced well enough in his current role to claim that without a doubt he would be a better option in a offensive role than DD.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

At this point I'm sure you're confusing me with someone else. I'd like to see you quote me on that.

I presented you a lot of Eller stats, including his playoffs stats in the last 2 years compared to Plekanec and Gallagher and you keep saying that I cherry-pick my stats. So it's pretty clear you don't think those stats are very relevant.

 

[Sorinth]

No you're not! You take out the powerplay stats entirely, which accounts for a ton of the ice time those players earned! How can you not understand that simply removing everyone's powerplay stats and pretending they don't exist makes absolutely no sense?

As for your second set of statistics, he's clearly far behind Plekanec. Not sure exactly what you're trying to prove. Especially since you won't find anyone who thinks Desharnais should be our first line center... Also relevant is that you are choosing the time in Eller's career when he was at his very highest, but he fell hard pretty quickly after that.

We are trying to determine the relative offensive abilities of these players, right?

If Desharnais and Plekanec are better offensive players then all else being equal they will produce more at ES. Do you disagree with this premise? If you don't then removing the PP production is fine as a comparison as it levels the playing field. Ideally we would also remove the effects on linemates, zone starts, etc... but those are much harder to determine.


Eller is ahead of Desharnais, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, slightly below Pacioretty. You said there was no proof that Eller could produce on the PP, yet there it is in black and white. Eller is one of our better PP producers.

 

[JohnLennon]

I presented you a lot of Eller stats, including his playoffs stats in the last 2 years compared to Plekanec and Gallagher and you keep saying that I cherry-pick my stats. So it's pretty clear you don't think those stats are very relevant.

Why would playoff stats not be relevant? I've literally never said that.

 

[Sorinth]

Eller and DD have generally played completely different roles under Therrien so it's difficult to adequately compare them solely based on stats.

DD does play with better offensive linemates, have more offensive zone starts and PP time, so obviously he has more opportunities to accumulate points.

However, by centering Pacioretty, he also has to face better defensive players. The other team is much more aware defensively when he steps on the ice simply because of Pacioretty's presence, who is easily our best offensive weapon. Moreover, by being used as a go-to offensive player, DD has a more pressure to put up points.

Can you find a single other team where the top line center puts up similar production to the 3rd line center due to this supposed worse matchups?

 

[Talks to Goalposts]

Eller and DD have generally played completely different roles under Therrien so it's difficult to adequately compare them solely based on stats.

DD does play with better offensive linemates, have more offensive zone starts and PP time, so obviously he has more opportunities to accumulate points.

However, by centering Pacioretty, he also has to face better defensive players. The other team is much more aware defensively when he steps on the ice simply because of Pacioretty's presence, who is easily our best offensive weapon. Moreover, by being used as a go-to offensive player, DD has a more pressure to put up points.

Are you seriously putting up an argument that playing with Pacioretty makes it harder to score because you play against better defensive players?

That goes completely against any recorded evidence from the past 3 seasons. Players that play with Pacioretty see their offense explode because he is just that good of a hockey player. The marginal increase in opposition quality is completely overshadowed by the benefit of the far superior linemate.

 

[JohnLennon]

We are trying to determine the relative offensive abilities of these players, right?

If Desharnais and Plekanec are better offensive players then all else being equal they will produce more at ES. Do you disagree with this premise? If you don't then removing the PP production is fine as a comparison as it levels the playing field. Ideally we would also remove the effects on linemates, zone starts, etc... but those are much harder to determine.


Eller is ahead of Desharnais, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, slightly below Pacioretty. You said there was no proof that Eller could produce on the PP, yet there it is in black and white. Eller is one of our better PP producers.

No, it doesn't make sense man. These players are all playing different roles... it makes no sense to compare their stats directly, especially when you simply remove a whole set of statistics like powerplay points.

I'd also like to know the information behind those powerplay stats you threw up, like what time period they were from and the ice time behind them, among other things. Even if Eller was better for a period of time on the powerplay, clearly the coaching staff doesn't see him as a worthy candidate for the powerplay.

Saying things like "Eller is ahead of Gallagher, slightly below Pacioretty" is exactly why those of you who overrate Eller sound so out to lunch, by the way.