Rumor: LA and their 2nd overall pick

[FabricDetails]

These are the things I kinda feel sometimes but I'm afraid to put them into print.

Yet, no hesitation for using a Top 10 pick on a goalie (albeit, the best goalie prospect since Carey Prince, but still). Just saying I would think your hesitation levels wouldn't be there for ranking Stutzle over Byfield.

Honestly I don't think that's a controversial statement at all, especially because of the WJC (fair or unfair). Are they the same age?

 

[Bench]

Yet, no hesitation for using a Top 10 pick on a goalie (albeit, the best goalie prospect since Carey Prince, but still). Just saying I would think your hesitation levels wouldn't be there for ranking Stutzle over Byfield.

Honestly I don't think that's a controversial statement at all, especially because of the WJC (fair or unfair). Are they the same age?

Byfield represents so much potential. He could be a dominant force. But I just love how Stutzle plays.

 

[Winger98]

It's also really rare for the top 3 in a draft to be drafted 1, 2 and 3. There is a huge amount of variance in the draft itself, the kids being drafted are very young and rarely will be able to step onto their teams right away. We are going to be a cellar team for awhile, so I'm in no rush as a fan. Hopefully we get Wright in two years.

I'm hoping we Ranger our way to Wright in two years and move up something crazy like nine spots to do it.

 

[FabricDetails]

I'm hoping we Ranger our way to Wright in two years and move up something crazy like nine spots to do it.

If they don't change the system in two years, hehe.

 

[Killerjas]

So recap:

Byfield likely is nothing more than an average 1C or a good 2C, with a floor of a 3C

Rossi is going to be a good 1C or 2C, with a floor of a fringe 2C.

I learned today that Rossi has a higher ceiling and a higher floor than Byfield. How is he not going to go #1 overall..

The chances for Rossi being a center is in my opinion not great, he will pan out more at wing.

 

[Henkka]

Just love to see these playoff series how bigger players are lot more harder to play against. Rossi would be useless at current playoffs, where Byfield would be great force like Kirby Dach. Once again, referees allow clutch and crabbing when it means most and strong players will get an edge.

Rossi would be nice regular season player. But I don't really care about regular season. It determines high caphits for productive players. That's about it. Playoffs are different hockey, and that is the thing what finally matters.

 

[ZDH]

People ripped on me for proposing mantha 1st and 2nd a while back and in this thread im seeing Veleno, 1st, 2nd and Larkin's name...

 

[Killerjas]

People ripped on me for proposing mantha 1st and 2nd a while back and in this thread im seeing Veleno, 1st, 2nd and Larkin's name...

That is just 1 dude... There is no reason to trade Mantha, Veleno or Larkin.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'm hoping we Ranger our way to Wright in two years and move up something crazy like nine spots to do it.

Feels like a foregone conclusion doesn’t it?

Chicago jumped up and got Dach when their Cup contenting roster was aging. Montreal jumped up and got Kotkaniemi, which is still a pick that I think turns out okay over time. And I feel like they were destined for Lafreniere until they made the playoffs. Speaking of, New York endured a rebuild and was awarded Kakko and Lafreniere. Toronto endured a rebuild and were rewarded with Matthews. Additionally, while it’s been some time since Boston was near the bottom, they did benefit from Toronto and ended up with the Seguin pick.

All Original 6 teams have benefitted from the lottery in the last 10 years....except one. It feels like we are paying our dues, and magically balance is going to be returned in 2022.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Just love to see these playoff series how bigger players are lot more harder to play against. Rossi would be useless at current playoffs, where Byfield would be great force like Kirby Dach. Once again, referees allow clutch and crabbing when it means most and strong players will get an edge.

Rossi would be nice regular season player. But I don't really care about regular season. It determines high caphits for productive players. That's about it. Playoffs are different hockey, and that is the thing what finally matters.

But that's dangerous. That's how you take Dylan McIlrath over damn near anyone else in the first round. It needs to be bigger but similr skating/skill. Skating/skill/hockey IQ are vastly more important. If a guy happens to be big, BONUS, but you don't do your drafting based on size. Drafting on size gets you 2017's draft. Size should never be more than a factor that tilts an otherwise equal coin-flip of a pick.

 

[Ezekial]

They really endured that rebuild in New York. What did they go? 2 whole years without the playoffs?

 

[GOZetterberg]

Just love to see these playoff series how bigger players are lot more harder to play against. Rossi would be useless at current playoffs, where Byfield would be great force like Kirby Dach. Once again, referees allow clutch and crabbing when it means most and strong players will get an edge.

Rossi would be nice regular season player. But I don't really care about regular season. It determines high caphits for productive players. That's about it. Playoffs are different hockey, and that is the thing what finally matters.

And yet Brad Marchand is a force both in the regular season and in the playoffs

 

[ArmChairGM89]

And yet Brad Marchand is a force both in the regular season and in the playoffs

Yes it’s more about a mentality than actual size. Rossi is not high on my list but he has a bulldog mentality. That’s what’s important for playoff hockey.

 

[SirloinUB]

I love the idea of trading up for 2nd overall without giving up our 4th overall. I recognize that’s a pipe dream but for shits and giggles I’m going to try to make it happen. I mean who wouldn’t want more picks at the very top of the draft, right?

First a couple of disclaimers:
I’m sure some of these values will be off so instead of thinking of them as specific trades I’m just hoping to build a framework for how my pipe dream Could be implemented. I’d be willing to massage each deal to make it happen.
I’m sure some of you won’t like the idea at all and that’s fine too.
I’m also fairly sure LA would rather pick at 2nd overall but it’s a long off season so I’m going to assume they’re open to the idea of unloading that pick.

with all that in mind her is the plan:

On the trade board I saw oilers fans supportive of trading their 1st (14th overall) + Neal for a 2nd (45th or 58th). I think obtaining an extra 1st is essential so that’s step 1.

We then trade 14th overall + Hronek (plus more? a 2nd? Veleno? McIsaac? All 3 lol?) for 2nd overall.

Now I can draft Byfield at 2nd and take Drysdale at 4th.

What do you all think?

 

[Vector Cereal]

Yes it’s more about a mentality than actual size. Rossi is not high on my list but he has a bulldog mentality. That’s what’s important for playoff hockey.

I think it's been said before, but I like that we have a few guys who have stepped up big for (non-NHL at the moment) playoffs. Just cherrypicking, but Marchand seems to have always stepped up in playoffs going back to his junior production. I haven't seen a real systematic study on if guys who elevate their game in juniors/ahl playoffs tend to do so in the NHL - might be hard, since usually the top scorers in NHL playoffs dominated the lower levels, so they likely couldn't elevate their scoring much more in junior playoffs vs regular season.

Nonetheless:

Mastro 2018-2019 regular season (reg) 1.11PPG, playoffs(po) 1.36PPG
Rasmussen 2017-18 reg 1.26PPG, po 2.36PPG
Mantha 2015-16 reg 0.75PPG, po 1.22PPG
Bert 2014-17 (combined) reg 0.56PPG, po 0.93PPG
Smith 2017-18 reg 0.65PPG, po 1.00PPG

 

[jkutswings]

What do you all think?

I think it would be fantastic, but the resources to get LA to move from 2 all the way to 14 would be so painful that Detroit wouldn't do it.

I'd love it, but if I'm in the Kings' shoes...what on earth could convince me to not only NOT take my choice of Byfield or Stutzle, but to then drop past that next half dozen very good prospects in the next tier?

#2 for #14 + Hronek + Larkin? I think it would be something in that neck of the woods - maybe even more - and that's a nasty price to pay.


EDIT: Here's a proposed chart from way back in 2011 (so high picks are probably even more valuable now), but it basically says that #14 only has half the value of #2.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

So essentially, you'd have to START with saying, give me #2 overall for #13 AND #14 overall. And you'd probably have to bump it up a bit from that theoretical, to actually convince a team to do it.

 

[raymond23]

Unfortunately this rumor means zilch to us.

 

[SirloinUB]

I think it would be fantastic, but the resources to get LA to move from 2 all the way to 14 would be so painful that Detroit wouldn't do it.

I'd love it, but if I'm in the Kings' shoes...what on earth could convince me to not only NOT take my choice of Byfield or Stutzle, but to then drop past that next half dozen very good prospects in the next tier?

#2 for #14 + Hronek + Larkin? I think it would be something in that neck of the woods - maybe even more - and that's a nasty price to pay.


EDIT: Here's a proposed chart from way back in 2011 (so high picks are probably even more valuable now), but it basically says that #14 only has half the value of #2.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

So essentially, you'd have to START with saying, give me #2 overall for #13 AND #14 overall. And you'd probably have to bump it up a bit from that theoretical, to actually convince a team to do it.

I mostly agree with you. My hope though is that Hronek would be a big bridge in the gap value. Summer of 2019 The Athletic had Hronek at 16 in a redraft behind (11) Girard, (12) Chyrchrun, (13) Fabbro, (14) Borgstrom, (15) Kyrou. Since then I’d think he climbed at least 2 or 3 spots on that list. So in a sense my base offer is in fact 13th + 14th. Moreover, I think a proven asset has more value than the 13th overall pick - I mean would any of us ship out Hronek for the 11th, 12th or 13th pick straight up?

Overall I agree that something would be needed to push it over the hump. The opportunity cost of trading out the 2nd overall pick is significant and I’m not sure a combo of 32, Veleno or another prospect could get it done.

thanks for humouring me!

 

[MBH]

But that's dangerous. That's how you take Dylan McIlrath over damn near anyone else in the first round. It needs to be bigger but similr skating/skill. Skating/skill/hockey IQ are vastly more important. If a guy happens to be big, BONUS, but you don't do your drafting based on size. Drafting on size gets you 2017's draft. Size should never be more than a factor that tilts an otherwise equal coin-flip of a pick.

Nobody's talking about drafting a slow guy at 4.
Even in the OHL Rossi has more success zipping around the perimeter than making his way to the net.
I kind of feel like Stutzle plays the same game - though it's more understandable since he's playing against men.
A smallish guy like Perfetti, though, beats guys on-one-one to get past them into better areas.

And Henkaa has a point.
I'm sitting here watching Milan Lucic and Sam Bennett do their thing once again.
I watch the Flames and I'm like, when did Milan Lucic start playing hockey again. Bennett's a playoff stud every year.
Little, high flying spark plugs like Dube always seem to be a thing in the playoffs.
But the smallish skill guys without dynamic skating often end up as powerplay specialists who can't do shit at 5 on 5.

I'd love to see a study on points/60 ...
What happens to 215+guys
What happens to 195-210 guys
What happens to U195 guys
playoffs vs non playoffs.

 

[Bench]

They really endured that rebuild in New York. What did they go? 2 whole years without the playoffs?

No kidding.

People just feel like they've been worse, though, because Lundqvist was dragging them into the playoffs for so many years. The one year he got some decent support they went to the finals.

 

[jkutswings]

The opportunity cost of trading out the 2nd overall pick is significant and I’m not sure a combo of 32, Veleno or another prospect could get it done.

Yeah, I think the bottom line is what tier of player that LA thinks Byfield and Stutzle will be. If they're confident that either is a 1C in the NHL, I think any trade worth making is dead. But if they're not sold on either guy being significantly better than the next handful of options, you might be able to package something together (assuming you take that first step and acquire #14 overall).

I'm not optimistic, but good food for thought.

 

[jkutswings]

No kidding.

People just feel like they've been worse, though, because Lundqvist was dragging them into the playoffs for so many years. The one year he got some decent support they went to the finals.

Bench giving credit to the goalie?

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Nobody's talking about drafting a slow guy at 4.
Even in the OHL Rossi has more success zipping around the perimeter than making his way to the net.
I kind of feel like Stutzle plays the same game - though it's more understandable since he's playing against men.
A smallish guy like Perfetti, though, beats guys on-one-one to get past them into better areas.

And Henkaa has a point.
I'm sitting here watching Milan Lucic and Sam Bennett do their thing once again.
I watch the Flames and I'm like, when did Milan Lucic start playing hockey again. Bennett's a playoff stud every year.
Little, high flying spark plugs like Dube always seem to be a thing in the playoffs.
But the smallish skill guys without dynamic skating often end up as powerplay specialists who can't do shit at 5 on 5.

I'd love to see a study on points/60 ...
What happens to 215+guys
What happens to 195-210 guys
What happens to U195 guys
playoffs vs non playoffs.

I guess what I was saying that size shouldn't be a determining factor on a guy. If they're in the same tier skills wise, go bigger guy. But focus on skill. I mean, Datsyuk and Zetterberg were both 190-195. They were also FORCES in the playoffs. You definitely need size in the playoffs. You can't have an all small roster. However, it isn't something you prioritize. Priortizing size gets you Rasmussen, not Necas or everyone's favorite Vilardi. Prioritizing size gets you Logan Stanley instead of Dante Fabbro. It is strength, not size, that determines playoffs. The Wings for years and years and years and years made their hay in the playoffs with Lidstrom, Larionov, Fedorov, Yzerman, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, etc. etc. etc. At the top of the draft, you should be getting those types of players. The size? You can get that later. You can pick up Milan Lucic or Dallas Drake for a song because they've slogged through a bunch of bad regular seasons and their team just wants to free up the money. It needs to happen, but your size guys don't have to be your high talent guys. If one is staring you in the face (Byfield), you take him and you dance with glee. But you don't try to force it or make it a priority to grab one. Draft talent, fill needs other ways.

 

[Bench]

Bench giving credit to the goalie?

Hey man, it's not just me. Take a look at the Rangers team MVP winners.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Hey man, it's not just me. Take a look at the Rangers team MVP winners.

I don't see Ryan Callahan in there. WHY AM I LIED TO ABOUT INTANGIBLES!? Next you're going to tell me that Jonathan Toews isn't a team MVP either!