Well you do have to remember that next years draft is always stronger than this years. Its a constant, basically.What ever makes them look worse in relation to the 2019 and 2017 draft at the same time.
Well you do have to remember that next years draft is always stronger than this years. Its a constant, basically.What ever makes them look worse in relation to the 2019 and 2017 draft at the same time.
There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.Well you do have to remember that next years draft is always stronger than this years. Its a constant, basically.
pretty much this...There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.
I also don't think people are saying 2019 will be clearly better, just that it appears to have better center depth, which it does.
Wait, it doesn't appear to have better center depth.There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.
I also don't think people are saying 2019 will be clearly better, just that it appears to have better center depth, which it does.
Its fine, youre thread is good. Its the evaluation by the rest of posters that is ridiculous.pretty much this...
all I have said was the center depth for this draft is really strong, which "usually" helps a draft overall become a better draft..it is still early to see how 2019 is looking overall, but we can at least start to compare positional strengths and weaknesses between the two which I am trying to see by taking the top 2 C's from 2018 and placing them in 2019 as to how they would stack up.
Yes, because maybe one person says it, you can take it to extreme hyperbole to defend your position that Kotkaniemi is worthy of being a 3rd overall in most drafts. Look, it may work out like some of the reaches I mentioned, but that doesn't mean, that guys like Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, and Hughes are tracking to be better picks at that position. Maybe not all of them will be centers or maintain their stock, a lot can change in 10 months.Wait, it doesn't appear to have better center depth.
It appears to have 10 players better than the 3rd OA this year, and 25 better than the 5th OA this year. Thats not just depth, thats overall quality.
Yes, because maybe one person says it, you can take it to extreme hyperbole to defend your position that Kotkaniemi is worthy of being a 3rd overall in most drafts. Look, it may work out like some of the reaches I mentioned, but that doesn't mean, that guys like Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, and Hughes are tracking to be better picks at that position. Maybe not all of them will be centers or maintain their stock, a lot can change in 10 months.
Except you have to remember guys could emerge, and in a draft that is deep with centers overall, that it is likely that even if guys like Cozens or Dach slip, that a center who is equal to Kotkaniemi emerges. For example, say Dach slips, what's to say Ryan Suzuki doesn't rise from the teens into the top 4 like Sam Bennett, or some relatively forgotten about kid has a Cody Glass type rise. Hell, Scheifele and RyJo were basically unheard of.Exactly my point. Look back at d-1 draft lists and its ridiculous how much it usually changes.
Hischier was ranked outside the top 5 by most in june 2016
Liljegren was always second
Comtois looked like he was poised for a top 5 pick
Heiskanene wasnt ranked in most top 30
Cale Fleury was ranked in most top 30
It goes on and on, it's always like that, people overrate d-1 players.
Arizona didnt even need a C, so thats a bad argument too. Galchenyuk, Strome, Stepan and Dvorak are all too 6 Cs.
Kotkaniemi has around 6 months difference than the top players in this draft. I mean, he's closer to them in age than a few of the top picks from his own draft.
He'd go top 10, easily. Even in a stacked draft for centers. Hayton, at worst, top 15.
Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?I'm not sure I would say top 10 easily. If he had the year he just had but was draft eligible for next year with a lot more natural centers that could hurt Kotka's stock quite a bit. I think teams were more willing to take a risk on him this year because of the lack of natural centers. Having high end guys who played the position all year would definitely hurt Kotkaniemis chances a bit. Right now it looks like he would be around 10 if I had to guess, not top 10 easily.
Kotka obviously wouldnt be the first center off the board. And I dont think he would be ahead of Cozens for sure. Kakko is likely ahead, then likely at least one of Broberg or Byram go ahead of him because teams will take a dman. So that puts him at 5th, in a grouping with 4 or so other guys right now that hes close with That grouping includes a few guys who would've played center all season and been scouted at that position, unlike Kotkaniemi. So yeah I think he owuld be around the top 10, but I dont think its fair to say easily.
Hayton I'm not so sure. There was a few centers a year younger this year that had what looked like more impressive seasons. Maybe he goes top 15 but I think he would be the 5th center at best next year, so depends on what happens at other positions. A lot of people arent exactly sold on him being a top 15 prospect in this past years draft so its hard to say
Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?
Puljujarvi had a similar season and was picked in the top five of, again, one of the "stronger" draft, all that, as a winger again.
What exactly tells you he would go this low ? Do you expect Cozen, Dach, Byram, Broberg, Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and co to just look that much better than the 15/16 drafts ? If so, Im sorry, were just not going to agree on the actual draft and thats where the confusion stems from. First guess though, Im pretty sure this is not it.
Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.
This is obviously how I feel their seasons will play out leading to their draft value, give or take.
I'm a huge fan of Kotkaniemi, ask anyone on the Sens board, the centres in 2019 are special.
Heiskanen was ranked around 15 in febuary, he was in a similar spot to Kotkaniemi come draft day.
Kotkaniemi got the draft position boost because a team desperate for centres at both NHL: and prospect level was picking #3. Do you agree, yes or no?
Sure, this coming year has the best/2nd best Junior A prospect heading into a draft year (depending how you view Turris) ever as somewhere between the 4th-7th best centre prospect available. That's not normal to start a year. Of course there is a lot of movement going to happen throughout the year, but for a guy of that calibre to not be top 3 at his position, and the position every team wants, heading into a draft year speaks to the talent available in this draft.Statistically, the variance between years, especially the top talent is never that much different, you can get some variance at 1, some at 2, but usually it tapers off. The only year you can point out to that would rank as below average in the last... twenty (?) years is 2012 and a lot of it had to do with development, and I believe, the lockout.
Btw, Im fine with someone saying they think X or y is going to be better or whatever, what I am not fine with is ridiculous numbers like saying Hughes, Newhook, Turcotte, Cozen, Kakko, Byram, Poz, Dach, Suzuki, Broberg are all going to be better than Kotkaniemi, thats just wishful thinking.
I'm pretty sure if you go year by year, by each position, theres not more than a 4 or 5 variance when you compare any given pick with the adjacent years.
Obviously, massive busts like Griffin Reinhart will change this heavily, and massive late round gem like Benn will also change this but these are not the norm in the top 10-15.
Bob McKenzie had him 5th. That is based on NHL scout rankings. Is two spots really a desperate reach?
Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?
Puljujarvi had a similar season and was picked in the top five of, again, one of the "stronger" draft, all that, as a winger again.
What exactly tells you he would go this low ? Do you expect Cozen, Dach, Byram, Broberg, Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and co to just look that much better than the 15/16 drafts ? If so, Im sorry, were just not going to agree on the actual draft and thats where the confusion stems from. First guess though, Im pretty sure this is not it.
Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.
This is obviously how I feel their seasons will play out leading to their draft value, give or take.
I'm a huge fan of Kotkaniemi, ask anyone on the Sens board, the centres in 2019 are special.
No, but I did not call it a desperate reach either. I do not know how much the need played into the pick, I just think that it clearly did. I simply wanted to know if the other poster think it was a factor or not. This was the point of my objection in comparing Kotkaniemi pick to Heiskanen, and it did not seem to be addressed at all in the response, so I just want some clarity.
Not at all.Kotkaniemi got the draft position boost because a team desperate for centres at both NHL: and prospect level was picking #3. Do you agree, yes or no?
Just look at the evaluation you make of these guys, its incredibly unrealistic.Sure, this coming year has the best/2nd best Junior A prospect heading into a draft year (depending how you view Turris) ever as somewhere between the 4th-7th best centre prospect available. That's not normal to start a year. Of course there is a lot of movement going to happen throughout the year, but for a guy of that calibre to not be top 3 at his position, and the position every team wants, heading into a draft year speaks to the talent available in this draft.
The forwards from the W are unbelievable. All of Cozens, Dach and Krebs are probably top 3 talent in any draft year, give or take.
Lavoie is going to be a 6-4, smooth skating C/W with a very likely 40+ goal season prior to being drafted. He's going to have a similar/better season statistically to Zadina.
Newhook is likely to destroy the BCHL and win every major award in the CJHL.
Hughes, is Hughes.
I've been on record for the past 1.5-2 years saying that this draft class is exceptional all the way back to the guys Midget seasons heading into the Q, I'm not using any kind of hindsight or shiny new toy syndrome with regards to my thoughts.
Obviously I can be way off, it's only what I personally project these guys as on draft day, it's the main reason I've been so hard on Dorion for not giving the Avs the 4th. I think that you can get a comparable guy in 2019 at 10, and everywhere above that yeilds a better building block. The same thought applies to Kotkaniemi (who again I was very, very high on).
It really isn't.Just look at the evaluation you make of these guys, its incredibly unrealistic.
I’m going to say no because Trevor Timmins has never picked based on need before for the team. At least not in the 1st round. The only player that might have been a pick based on need is Tinordi. They also traded up for him so I bet they just valued him highly. That also blew up in their face so I doubt they would make a move like that again. Certainly not at 3rd overall.
Not at all.