Kotkaniemi and Hayton in the 2019 draft???

[Frank Drebin]

What ever makes them look worse in relation to the 2019 and 2017 draft at the same time.

Well you do have to remember that next years draft is always stronger than this years. Its a constant, basically.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well you do have to remember that next years draft is always stronger than this years. Its a constant, basically.

There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.

I also don't think people are saying 2019 will be clearly better, just that it appears to have better center depth, which it does.

 

[AmericanDream]

There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.

I also don't think people are saying 2019 will be clearly better, just that it appears to have better center depth, which it does.

pretty much this...

all I have said was the center depth for this draft is really strong, which "usually" helps a draft overall become a better draft..it is still early to see how 2019 is looking overall, but we can at least start to compare positional strengths and weaknesses between the two which I am trying to see by taking the top 2 C's from 2018 and placing them in 2019 as to how they would stack up.

 

[Mrb1p]

There are exceptions, no one was saying 2016 was better than 2015, and no one was saying 2017 was better than 2016. It also applied to 2014 after 2013.

I also don't think people are saying 2019 will be clearly better, just that it appears to have better center depth, which it does.

Wait, it doesn't appear to have better center depth.

It appears to have 10 players better than the 3rd OA this year, and 25 better than the 5th OA this year. Thats not just depth, thats overall quality.

 

[Mrb1p]

pretty much this...

all I have said was the center depth for this draft is really strong, which "usually" helps a draft overall become a better draft..it is still early to see how 2019 is looking overall, but we can at least start to compare positional strengths and weaknesses between the two which I am trying to see by taking the top 2 C's from 2018 and placing them in 2019 as to how they would stack up.

Its fine, youre thread is good. Its the evaluation by the rest of posters that is ridiculous.

Hughes ? Hell yeah. Turcotte? Damn, sure. Cozens ? I can get behind that. SEVEN GOALS DACH ? Come the f*** on.

Edit: Id like to point out that I don't think Hayton is worthy of a top 10 pick at all, so Id probabably take him ahead of the whole top ten and more, too. But I see a huge gap in between the two top Cs of 2018, like ridiculous one. Hayton is this years Andersson, but worse.

 

[93LEAFS]

Wait, it doesn't appear to have better center depth.

It appears to have 10 players better than the 3rd OA this year, and 25 better than the 5th OA this year. Thats not just depth, thats overall quality.

Yes, because maybe one person says it, you can take it to extreme hyperbole to defend your position that Kotkaniemi is worthy of being a 3rd overall in most drafts. Look, it may work out like some of the reaches I mentioned, but that doesn't mean, that guys like Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, and Hughes are tracking to be better picks at that position. Maybe not all of them will be centers or maintain their stock, a lot can change in 10 months.

 

[Mrb1p]

Yes, because maybe one person says it, you can take it to extreme hyperbole to defend your position that Kotkaniemi is worthy of being a 3rd overall in most drafts. Look, it may work out like some of the reaches I mentioned, but that doesn't mean, that guys like Turcotte, Cozens, Dach, and Hughes are tracking to be better picks at that position. Maybe not all of them will be centers or maintain their stock, a lot can change in 10 months.

Exactly my point. Look back at d-1 draft lists and its ridiculous how much it usually changes.

Hischier was ranked outside the top 5 by most in june 2016
Liljegren was always second
Comtois looked like he was poised for a top 5 pick
Heiskanene wasnt ranked in most top 30
Cale Fleury was ranked in most top 30

It goes on and on, it's always like that, people overrate d-1 players.

 

[93LEAFS]

Exactly my point. Look back at d-1 draft lists and its ridiculous how much it usually changes.

Hischier was ranked outside the top 5 by most in june 2016
Liljegren was always second
Comtois looked like he was poised for a top 5 pick
Heiskanene wasnt ranked in most top 30
Cale Fleury was ranked in most top 30

It goes on and on, it's always like that, people overrate d-1 players.

Except you have to remember guys could emerge, and in a draft that is deep with centers overall, that it is likely that even if guys like Cozens or Dach slip, that a center who is equal to Kotkaniemi emerges. For example, say Dach slips, what's to say Ryan Suzuki doesn't rise from the teens into the top 4 like Sam Bennett, or some relatively forgotten about kid has a Cody Glass type rise. Hell, Scheifele and RyJo were basically unheard of.

So, just looking at the sheer amount of potentially highly regarded centers in this draft, shows there is a significant chance a fair amount of high-end ones emerge.

 

[Andrei79]

Kotkaniemi has around 6 months difference than the top players in this draft. I mean, he's closer to them in age than a few of the top picks from his own draft.

He'd go top 10, easily. Even in a stacked draft for centers. Hayton, at worst, top 15.

 

[jfhabs]

Arizona didnt even need a C, so thats a bad argument too. Galchenyuk, Strome, Stepan and Dvorak are all too 6 Cs.

Stepan has 3 years left on his contract, Galchenyuk 2. It's good projection/planning to draft a center considering it's a rare commodity and they are deeper at every other position in terms of prospects.
Except from Strome they didn't have any other center with top 6-9 potential. It's also easier to shift a center to wing then the opposite... Dvorak/Galchenyuk could easily plays wing depending on how things plays out.

 

[newfy]

Kotkaniemi has around 6 months difference than the top players in this draft. I mean, he's closer to them in age than a few of the top picks from his own draft.

He'd go top 10, easily. Even in a stacked draft for centers. Hayton, at worst, top 15.

I'm not sure I would say top 10 easily. If he had the year he just had but was draft eligible for next year with a lot more natural centers that could hurt Kotka's stock quite a bit. I think teams were more willing to take a risk on him this year because of the lack of natural centers. Having high end guys who played the position all year would definitely hurt Kotkaniemis chances a bit. Right now it looks like he would be around 10 if I had to guess, not top 10 easily.

Kotka obviously wouldnt be the first center off the board. And I dont think he would be ahead of Cozens for sure. Kakko is likely ahead, then likely at least one of Broberg or Byram go ahead of him because teams will take a dman. So that puts him at 5th, in a grouping with 4 or so other guys right now that hes close with That grouping includes a few guys who would've played center all season and been scouted at that position, unlike Kotkaniemi. So yeah I think he owuld be around the top 10, but I dont think its fair to say easily.

Hayton I'm not so sure. There was a few centers a year younger this year that had what looked like more impressive seasons. Maybe he goes top 15 but I think he would be the 5th center at best next year, so depends on what happens at other positions. A lot of people arent exactly sold on him being a top 15 prospect in this past years draft so its hard to say

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm not sure I would say top 10 easily. If he had the year he just had but was draft eligible for next year with a lot more natural centers that could hurt Kotka's stock quite a bit. I think teams were more willing to take a risk on him this year because of the lack of natural centers. Having high end guys who played the position all year would definitely hurt Kotkaniemis chances a bit. Right now it looks like he would be around 10 if I had to guess, not top 10 easily.

Kotka obviously wouldnt be the first center off the board. And I dont think he would be ahead of Cozens for sure. Kakko is likely ahead, then likely at least one of Broberg or Byram go ahead of him because teams will take a dman. So that puts him at 5th, in a grouping with 4 or so other guys right now that hes close with That grouping includes a few guys who would've played center all season and been scouted at that position, unlike Kotkaniemi. So yeah I think he owuld be around the top 10, but I dont think its fair to say easily.

Hayton I'm not so sure. There was a few centers a year younger this year that had what looked like more impressive seasons. Maybe he goes top 15 but I think he would be the 5th center at best next year, so depends on what happens at other positions. A lot of people arent exactly sold on him being a top 15 prospect in this past years draft so its hard to say

Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?
Puljujarvi had a similar season and was picked in the top five of, again, one of the "stronger" draft, all that, as a winger again.

What exactly tells you he would go this low ? Do you expect Cozen, Dach, Byram, Broberg, Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and co to just look that much better than the 15/16 drafts ? If so, Im sorry, were just not going to agree on the actual draft and thats where the confusion stems from. First guess though, Im pretty sure this is not it.

 

[BondraTime]

Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?
Puljujarvi had a similar season and was picked in the top five of, again, one of the "stronger" draft, all that, as a winger again.

What exactly tells you he would go this low ? Do you expect Cozen, Dach, Byram, Broberg, Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and co to just look that much better than the 15/16 drafts ? If so, Im sorry, were just not going to agree on the actual draft and thats where the confusion stems from. First guess though, Im pretty sure this is not it.

Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.

This is obviously how I feel their seasons will play out leading to their draft value, give or take.

I'm a huge fan of Kotkaniemi, ask anyone on the Sens board, the centres in 2019 are special.

 

[Mrb1p]

Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.

This is obviously how I feel their seasons will play out leading to their draft value, give or take.

I'm a huge fan of Kotkaniemi, ask anyone on the Sens board, the centres in 2019 are special.

Statistically, the variance between years, especially the top talent is never that much different, you can get some variance at 1, some at 2, but usually it tapers off. The only year you can point out to that would rank as below average in the last... twenty (?) years is 2012 and a lot of it had to do with development, and I believe, the lockout.

Btw, Im fine with someone saying they think X or y is going to be better or whatever, what I am not fine with is ridiculous numbers like saying Hughes, Newhook, Turcotte, Cozen, Kakko, Byram, Poz, Dach, Suzuki, Broberg are all going to be better than Kotkaniemi, thats just wishful thinking.

I'm pretty sure if you go year by year, by each position, theres not more than a 4 or 5 variance when you compare any given pick with the adjacent years.

Obviously, massive busts like Griffin Reinhart will change this heavily, and massive late round gem like Benn will also change this but these are not the norm in the top 10-15.

 

[theVladiator]

Heiskanen was ranked around 15 in febuary, he was in a similar spot to Kotkaniemi come draft day.

Kotkaniemi got the draft position boost because a team desperate for centres at both NHL: and prospect level was picking #3. Do you agree, yes or no?

 

[le_sean]

Kotkaniemi got the draft position boost because a team desperate for centres at both NHL: and prospect level was picking #3. Do you agree, yes or no?

Bob McKenzie had him 5th. That is based on NHL scout rankings. Is two spots really a desperate reach?

 

[BondraTime]

Statistically, the variance between years, especially the top talent is never that much different, you can get some variance at 1, some at 2, but usually it tapers off. The only year you can point out to that would rank as below average in the last... twenty (?) years is 2012 and a lot of it had to do with development, and I believe, the lockout.

Btw, Im fine with someone saying they think X or y is going to be better or whatever, what I am not fine with is ridiculous numbers like saying Hughes, Newhook, Turcotte, Cozen, Kakko, Byram, Poz, Dach, Suzuki, Broberg are all going to be better than Kotkaniemi, thats just wishful thinking.

I'm pretty sure if you go year by year, by each position, theres not more than a 4 or 5 variance when you compare any given pick with the adjacent years.

Obviously, massive busts like Griffin Reinhart will change this heavily, and massive late round gem like Benn will also change this but these are not the norm in the top 10-15.

Sure, this coming year has the best/2nd best Junior A prospect heading into a draft year (depending how you view Turris) ever as somewhere between the 4th-7th best centre prospect available. That's not normal to start a year. Of course there is a lot of movement going to happen throughout the year, but for a guy of that calibre to not be top 3 at his position, and the position every team wants, heading into a draft year speaks to the talent available in this draft.

The forwards from the W are unbelievable. All of Cozens, Dach and Krebs are probably top 3 talent in any draft year, give or take.

Lavoie is going to be a 6-4, smooth skating C/W with a very likely 40+ goal season prior to being drafted. He's going to have a similar/better season statistically to Zadina.

Newhook is likely to destroy the BCHL and win every major award in the CJHL.

Hughes, is Hughes.

I've been on record for the past 1.5-2 years saying that this draft class is exceptional all the way back to the guys Midget seasons heading into the Q, I'm not using any kind of hindsight or shiny new toy syndrome with regards to my thoughts.

Obviously I can be way off, it's only what I personally project these guys as on draft day, it's the main reason I've been so hard on Dorion for not giving the Avs the 4th. I think that you can get a comparable guy in 2019 at 10, and everywhere above that yeilds a better building block. The same thought applies to Kotkaniemi (who again I was very, very high on).

 

[theVladiator]

Bob McKenzie had him 5th. That is based on NHL scout rankings. Is two spots really a desperate reach?

No, but I did not call it a desperate reach either. I do not know how much the need played into the pick, I just think that it clearly did. I simply wanted to know if the other poster think it was a factor or not. This was the point of my objection in comparing Kotkaniemi pick to Heiskanen, and it did not seem to be addressed at all in the response, so I just want some clarity.

 

[newfy]

Rantanen had a worst season than Kotkaniemi in his draft year, in a "stronger" draft and was picked in the top top 10, all that as a winger. How familiar are you, really, with Kotkaniemis season ?
Puljujarvi had a similar season and was picked in the top five of, again, one of the "stronger" draft, all that, as a winger again.

What exactly tells you he would go this low ? Do you expect Cozen, Dach, Byram, Broberg, Hughes, Turcotte, Newhook, and co to just look that much better than the 15/16 drafts ? If so, Im sorry, were just not going to agree on the actual draft and thats where the confusion stems from. First guess though, Im pretty sure this is not it.

Familiar enough to make judgements on him. Pulujarvi is ridiculously athletic and are you going to pretend his WJC in his draft year didnt have an impact on him going 4th? 17 points in those 7 games, leading the tournament had a bigger impact than anything else he did that season vs Kotkaniemis 0 points in 0 games played at the WJC. People didnt even know he was a for sure center until the u18s, forget about the WJC. Same with Rantanen, had a solid showing at the world juniors which has a huge impact on draft position. Kotkaniemi didnt play at the WJC which is rare for a top 3 picked center on almost any team except Canada.

And what do you mean what tells me he would go this low? I said he would go around 10, which could be anywhere from 8-12 in my books. You really think thats super low considering thats right around where he was projected this past draft anyways (6-8)? I'v ealready said why I think this. There are a couple guys it appears this next draft that are natural centers and will have played it their entire draft year so a team would likely take them over Kotkaniemi if they wanted a center. Similar talent level with less questions around playing center means a team would like take one of them higher. I think Hughes, Cozens and Dach would go higher likely, plus a couple dmen and Kakko. That puts him at 7th, and it wouldnt surprise me by this time next year if guys like Turcotte or Newhook are considered more highly putting him around ten. Like the guy below me said, I have him right around the same tier as Newhook and Tuurcottes and some of these guys might flake out as well, but if theyre in the same tier and play center the entire season I could see them being picked ahead as well. Less projection needed to see how these guys are in the center of the ice than with Kotkaniemi where scouts really only had his u18 to go on.

I said I dont know if I would say top 10 easily because to me that implied that he was a lock for top 5 or 6, which I dont think is a fair assessment. Going into the draft this year I dont think a lot of people would've said he was a lock for the top 5. He could go top 5 or 6 next year, but I dont think its a lock because of the centers available in 2019. There appears to be more depth at the position than usual

Off the bat, looking only at the C position, I'd bet a lot on Hughes, Cozens and Dach having more value at the draft than Kotkaniemi. Then it gets interesting. Kotkaniemi, to me, would be in the group of Turcotte/Newhook. Hayton would be in a group of guys after that for me.

This is obviously how I feel their seasons will play out leading to their draft value, give or take.

I'm a huge fan of Kotkaniemi, ask anyone on the Sens board, the centres in 2019 are special.

I agree with you. If you say anything even slightly negative about Kotkaniemi though Mrb1p will jump all over you though so just be careful and choose your words carefully

 

[le_sean]

No, but I did not call it a desperate reach either. I do not know how much the need played into the pick, I just think that it clearly did. I simply wanted to know if the other poster think it was a factor or not. This was the point of my objection in comparing Kotkaniemi pick to Heiskanen, and it did not seem to be addressed at all in the response, so I just want some clarity.

I’m going to say no because Trevor Timmins has never picked based on need before for the team. At least not in the 1st round. The only player that might have been a pick based on need is Tinordi. They also traded up for him so I bet they just valued him highly. That also blew up in their face so I doubt they would make a move like that again. Certainly not at 3rd overall.

 

[Mrb1p]

Kotkaniemi got the draft position boost because a team desperate for centres at both NHL: and prospect level was picking #3. Do you agree, yes or no?

Not at all.

 

[Mrb1p]

Sure, this coming year has the best/2nd best Junior A prospect heading into a draft year (depending how you view Turris) ever as somewhere between the 4th-7th best centre prospect available. That's not normal to start a year. Of course there is a lot of movement going to happen throughout the year, but for a guy of that calibre to not be top 3 at his position, and the position every team wants, heading into a draft year speaks to the talent available in this draft.

The forwards from the W are unbelievable. All of Cozens, Dach and Krebs are probably top 3 talent in any draft year, give or take.

Lavoie is going to be a 6-4, smooth skating C/W with a very likely 40+ goal season prior to being drafted. He's going to have a similar/better season statistically to Zadina.

Newhook is likely to destroy the BCHL and win every major award in the CJHL.

Hughes, is Hughes.

I've been on record for the past 1.5-2 years saying that this draft class is exceptional all the way back to the guys Midget seasons heading into the Q, I'm not using any kind of hindsight or shiny new toy syndrome with regards to my thoughts.

Obviously I can be way off, it's only what I personally project these guys as on draft day, it's the main reason I've been so hard on Dorion for not giving the Avs the 4th. I think that you can get a comparable guy in 2019 at 10, and everywhere above that yeilds a better building block. The same thought applies to Kotkaniemi (who again I was very, very high on).

Just look at the evaluation you make of these guys, its incredibly unrealistic.

 

[BondraTime]

Just look at the evaluation you make of these guys, its incredibly unrealistic.

It really isn't.

Cozens and Dach are 6-3 and 6-4 skilled centres who are going to put up massive years after putting up fantastic 16 year old seasons. Not sure what's unrealistic about their projections?

Krebs is an extremely skilled winger with amazing skating and offensive skills. Had an unreal season in Kootenay, and should put up huge numbers this year. Will probably be around in the 7-10 range. Don't think that's unrealistic?

Hughes is one of the best prospects in the past decade, don't feel like I need to say much here.

Newhook was 2nd in points in the BCHL before breaking his wrist, had the best 16 year old season in league history. Had he not been injured he may have won all the awards in the CJHL as a 16 year old. After missing the last month and a half of the season he only won top rookie in the BCHL and CJHL and was a finalist (finished 2nd) for the BCHL MVP, as a 16 year old. After missing the last 14 games...lost the league scoring title by 8 points. Had he kept his pace he'd have won the title by 12 points. What's unrealistic about his projection?

Lavoie just posted 30 goals from the 2nd line and got better and better as the year went on. What's unrealistic about his projection of 40+ goals this season?

I'd like to hear your projections, and how realistic they are

 

[theVladiator]

I’m going to say no because Trevor Timmins has never picked based on need before for the team. At least not in the 1st round. The only player that might have been a pick based on need is Tinordi. They also traded up for him so I bet they just valued him highly. That also blew up in their face so I doubt they would make a move like that again. Certainly not at 3rd overall.

Not at all.

Fair enough, agree to disagree I guess.

 

[The Great Weal]

I can't have Dach over Kotkaniemi until he proves that he can score goals.