Kotkaniemi and Hayton in the 2019 draft???

Kevin Musto

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Feb 16, 2018
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Hayton is gonna prove you all wrong. It amazes me how many people have opinions based on stats alone and have not seen him play. He is going to surprise you.
I've seen him play. He's like Michael McLeod. There are kids like him from the OHL every year that never amount to elite status. Hayton will be the same. His ceiling is a middle six center. Waste of a top 5 pick. 5 years from now not a single redraft will have him in the top 15.
 
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Alberta Yote

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I've seen him play. He's like Michael McLeod. There are kids like him the OHL every year that never amount to elite status. Hayton will be the same. His ceiling is a middle six center. Waste of a top 5 pick. 5 years from now not a single redraft will have him in the top 15.
The Coyotes need to hire you to scout for them. Quite obviously you know better than them.
 

93LEAFS

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I don't mean play style. Just potential and where they were picked. They're comparable in that regard.
This exact same argument could have been used against Horvat, who he reminds me more of than McLeod. Although, Horvat may be the exception, and I'm not sure he will have the same development curve, as I think Horvat has developed pretty ideally.
 

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Hayton is gonna prove you all wrong. It amazes me how many people have opinions based on stats alone and have not seen him play. He is going to surprise you.

To me the problem with Hayton @ 5th is he looks like a guy who has a good shot of having a Ryan O'reilly kind of career. If he achieves that it will be a solid pickup BUT let's say he is 80% the player ROR is then that is a questionable pick
 

Keduzin

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Don’t k ow anything about this Hayton guy but Kotkaniemi should under no circumstances be drafted top10 unless it is a really, REALLY bad draftclass.
He has all the tools to be the most overrated TOP3 pick ever from Finland, make that top10.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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This exact same argument could have been used against Horvat, who he reminds me more of than McLeod. Although, Horvat may be the exception, and I'm not sure he will have the same development curve, as I think Horvat has developed pretty ideally.

We see this type of player over-drafted every year. This year was Hayton, last year was Rasmussen and Andersson. McLeod was the year before. You could honestly even argue Jost would apply, although I think he earned his draft position with his WJC18 tournament.

I don't understand why teams do this. Centers are not that important that you ignore your scouts evaluation of their abilities. There's a small chance these players turn into a Horvat profile of player, but the fact that their offensive game is so questionable to begin with and they have to be typed as a defensive guy who might have "underrated" offensive upside probably means their offensive upside isn't very high. There's also a small chance Wahlstrom is Bossy or Kotkaniemi is Kopitar. Doesn't mean the best-case scenario should be used as a reason to draft a completely different person. There's no reason for teams to try to force picks into being high-end centers. Either they have top 10 or so ability or not.

The mental contortion that is used to explain away these picks is bizarre. I’ve heard it for over a year from my team and I have no respect for it.
 
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93LEAFS

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We see this type of player over-drafted every year. This year was Hayton, last year was Rasmussen and Andersson. McLeod was the year before. You could honestly even argue Jost would apply, although I think he earned his draft position with his WJC18 tournament.

I don't understand why teams do this. Centers are not that important that you ignore your scouts evaluation of their abilities. There's a small chance these players turn into a Horvat profile of player, but the fact that their offensive game is so questionable to begin with and they have to be typed as a defensive guy who might have "underrated" offensive upside probably means their offensive upside isn't very high. There's also a small chance Wahlstrom is Bossy or Kotkaniemi is Kopitar. Doesn't mean the best-case scenario should be used as a reason to draft a completely different person. There's no reason for teams to try to force picks into being high-end centers. Either they have top 10 or so ability or not.

The mental contortion that is used to explain away these picks is bizarre. I’ve heard it for over a year from my team and I have no respect for it.
Hayton's scoring isn't great, but it wasn't crippling either. Especially when you know his usage. He got drafted a bit too high, but, finding quality centers outside the top 10 of the draft is a significant challenge. I'd also add, it wouldn't be fair to use those comparrisons for those 2, and then just cap Hayton at Horvat (if you are going to extremes atleast use Bergeron). Look at the NHL.com top 20 Centers (I'm just using that due to it being a recent, and a list that while placement can be argued, is probably close to an accurate unbiased representation of the top 20 centers in the league).

1: McDavid (1st Overall)
2: Crosby (1st Overall)
3: Malkin (2nd Overall)
4: Matthews (1st Overall)
5: MacKinnon (1st Overall)
6: Kopitar (11th Overall)
7: Scheifele (7th Overall)
8: Bergeron (45th Overall)
9: Seguin (2nd Overall)
10: Tavares (1st Overall)
11: Stamkos (1st Overall)
12: Kuznetsov (26th Overall)
13: Barkov (2nd Overall)
14: Backstrom (5th Overall)
15: Eichel (2nd Overall)
16: Barzal (16th Overall)
17: William Karlsson (53rd Overall)
18: Couturier (8th Overall)
19: Getzlaf (19th Overall)
20: Draisaitl (3rd Overall)

Now, that just shows how good centers are almost exclusively found at the top of the draft, in most cases, the very top. 50% of the list was drafted in the top 2, another 10% were taken between 3 and 5, another 10% between 6-10. So, about 70% of the leagues top centers were taken in the top 10, with 50% coming in the top 2 picks. We have 2 picks outside the 1st round. Kuznetsov was a top 10 talent who slipped based on being Russian at the height of the KHL scare and making his willingness to come over unclear. Compare this to any other positional list like D-men or wingers, and the breakdown would not be this extreme. Looking quickly at wingers 30% of the top 20 were taken outside the first round (compared to 10% of Centers) and significantly more were taken outside the top 10 in total (60% to 30%), obviously, the example of Kuznetsov applies to Kucherov and Tarasenko. Looking at defenders, its quite similar. With 35% of the defenders being drafted outside the first round (I will admit, the D list seems to be the biggest mess on first glance, but that doesn't mean it isn't representative). Outside of the top 10 is where 60% of the defenders were drafted.

Now, I think Kotkaniemi and Hayton were probably overdrafted. But, teams that are picking high, and don't think they will likely be picking high again, may be prone to reaching and taking a valid chance. Finding centers outside of the very top of the draft is extremely challenging, its the one position where finding good ones outside of the first round is extremely hard. Given forwards are easier to project, and the value attached to centers, it makes sense to occasionally slightly reach for them if your system is barren of them. I mean, league-wide how many legitimate top 60 centers are there who were taken past the first round? Off the top of my head, I got Stepen, Point, Tyler Johnson, Vincent Trochek, Krejci, and ROR.
 

Frk It

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I don't understand why teams do this. Centers are not that important that you ignore your scouts evaluation of their abilities.

I don't think this is what happens. You may disagree with the evaluations, but I doubt very much that teams are ignoring their scouts in order to draft a center.

It's also not as black and white as you suggest. There is a lot more room for interpretation with this. Larkin was a guy who was the 3C for USA in his draft year and billed more as a complete player, and he showed he had some untapped offense. It does happen in some cases.

Rasmussen and Andersson -- we will have to see. Rasmussen wasn't really "over-drafted" for the record, he was taken right where he was ranked. A little different than Andersson in that regard. But yeah, I wasn't a big fan of that pick. Doesn't mean it would be impossible for him to exceed what I think he is, though. Plus teams like good character guys, and I think both probably did great in their interviews.
 

jfhabs

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Both Arizona and Montréal needed a center, yes. But, they also bet on 2 very young players who both have the tools to be be good centers in today's NHL. Most notably great IQ and 2way play.

According to Mackenzie Kotka wasn't really a reach and some teams had Hayton top 10 to, so it's not dramatic either!

It remains to be seen how those players progress for next year's draft, but it's way too early to say they would go around 10 or around 20
 
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Mrb1p

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Both Arizona and Montréal needed a center, yes. But, they also bet on 2 very young players who both have the tools to be be good centers in today's NHL. Most notably great IQ and 2way play.

According to Mackenzie Kotka wasn't really a reach and some teams had Hayton top 10 to, so it's not dramatic either!

It remains to be seen how those players progress for next year's draft, but it's way too early to say they would go around 10 or around 20
Arizona didnt even need a C, so thats a bad argument too. Galchenyuk, Strome, Stepan and Dvorak are all too 6 Cs.
 

PuckLife

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Feb 26, 2015
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Hayton's scoring isn't great, but it wasn't crippling either. Especially when you know his usage. He got drafted a bit too high, but, finding quality centers outside the top 10 of the draft is a significant challenge. I'd also add, it wouldn't be fair to use those comparrisons for those 2, and then just cap Hayton at Horvat (if you are going to extremes atleast use Bergeron). Look at the NHL.com top 20 Centers (I'm just using that due to it being a recent, and a list that while placement can be argued, is probably close to an accurate unbiased representation of the top 20 centers in the league).

1: McDavid (1st Overall)
2: Crosby (1st Overall)
3: Malkin (2nd Overall)
4: Matthews (1st Overall)
5: MacKinnon (1st Overall)
6: Kopitar (11th Overall)
7: Scheifele (7th Overall)
8: Bergeron (45th Overall)
9: Seguin (2nd Overall)
10: Tavares (1st Overall)
11: Stamkos (1st Overall)
12: Kuznetsov (26th Overall)
13: Barkov (2nd Overall)
14: Backstrom (5th Overall)
15: Eichel (2nd Overall)
16: Barzal (16th Overall)
17: William Karlsson (53rd Overall)
18: Couturier (8th Overall)
19: Getzlaf (19th Overall)
20: Draisaitl (3rd Overall)

Now, that just shows how good centers are almost exclusively found at the top of the draft, in most cases, the very top. 50% of the list was drafted in the top 2, another 10% were taken between 3 and 5, another 10% between 6-10. So, about 70% of the leagues top centers were taken in the top 10, with 50% coming in the top 2 picks. We have 2 picks outside the 1st round. Kuznetsov was a top 10 talent who slipped based on being Russian at the height of the KHL scare and making his willingness to come over unclear. Compare this to any other positional list like D-men or wingers, and the breakdown would not be this extreme. Looking quickly at wingers 30% of the top 20 were taken outside the first round (compared to 10% of Centers) and significantly more were taken outside the top 10 in total (60% to 30%), obviously, the example of Kuznetsov applies to Kucherov and Tarasenko. Looking at defenders, its quite similar. With 35% of the defenders being drafted outside the first round (I will admit, the D list seems to be the biggest mess on first glance, but that doesn't mean it isn't representative). Outside of the top 10 is where 60% of the defenders were drafted.

Now, I think Kotkaniemi and Hayton were probably overdrafted. But, teams that are picking high, and don't think they will likely be picking high again, may be prone to reaching and taking a valid chance. Finding centers outside of the very top of the draft is extremely challenging, its the one position where finding good ones outside of the first round is extremely hard. Given forwards are easier to project, and the value attached to centers, it makes sense to occasionally slightly reach for them if your system is barren of them. I mean, league-wide how many legitimate top 60 centers are there who were taken past the first round? Off the top of my head, I got Stepen, Point, Tyler Johnson, Vincent Trochek, Krejci, and ROR.
Great analysis. Thanks for that.
 

93LEAFS

Registered User
Nov 7, 2009
33,841
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Toronto
I don't think this is what happens. You may disagree with the evaluations, but I doubt very much that teams are ignoring their scouts in order to draft a center.

It's also not as black and white as you suggest. There is a lot more room for interpretation with this. Larkin was a guy who was the 3C for USA in his draft year and billed more as a complete player, and he showed he had some untapped offense. It does happen in some cases.

Rasmussen and Andersson -- we will have to see. Rasmussen wasn't really "over-drafted" for the record, he was taken right where he was ranked. A little different than Andersson in that regard. But yeah, I wasn't a big fan of that pick. Doesn't mean it would be impossible for him to exceed what I think he is, though. Plus teams like good character guys, and I think both probably did great in their interviews.
Larkin was pretty much a two and was the number 1 center for the USNTDP U-17s for half the year prior when Eichel graduated. Matthews wasn't bumped up until mid-year and he was given the 3 spot. The Eichel line was clearly #1, trying to figure out who was the 2 or 3 is a bit debatable.

Its always going to be hit and miss with the draft. Some of the notable center reaches of recent years were PLD, Scheifele, and Horvat, all of which are working out. Hell, only a couple years ago it was universally accepted around here that Barkov over Drouin and Jones was a big reach. Now, there are misses, Dylan Strome and Zacha aren't tracking ideally, although, both were ranked around where they were taken (Strome was almost universally top 5, Zacha had much wider variance). Galchenyuk is a massive wild card because his stock had massive variance and risk attached due to missing all but 8 games in his draft year.
 

93LEAFS

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Nov 7, 2009
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Arizona didnt even need a C, so thats a bad argument too. Galchenyuk, Strome, Stepan and Dvorak are all too 6 Cs.
Only one of those guys is a proven top 6 NHL center. Galchenyuk has been moved around so much, you can't really tell what he is at this point. Dvorak is good, but he's probably not a 2nd line center on a team trying to win something right now. Strome is still just potential until he shows it at the NHL. Center (especially a legitimate #1) is probably the biggest need for the Coyotes, so until one emerges, they are probably willing to throw assets at it until its solved.

Outside of the Habs, and Ottawa, how many teams currently have worse center depth than the Coyotes? Maybe Detroit and NYI (although Barzal is a cornerstone, which is the hardest to acquire, and Larkin is a fringe #1 center), so their lacking in depth? There is NYR, Carolina, and Chicago isn't great after Toews. But, I'd say Arizona is in the bottom 25% or so of the league.
 

Mrb1p

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Only one of those guys is a proven top 6 NHL center. Galchenyuk has been moved around so much, you can't really tell what he is at this point. Dvorak is good, but he's probably not a 2nd line center on a team trying to win something right now. Strome is still just potential until he shows it at the NHL. Center (especially a legitimate #1) is probably the biggest need for the Coyotes, so until one emerges, they are probably willing to throw assets at it until its solved.

Outside of the Habs, and Ottawa, how many teams currently have worse center depth than the Coyotes? Maybe Detroit and NYI (although Barzal is a cornerstone, which is the hardest to acquire, and Larkin is a fringe #1 center), so their lacking in depth? There is NYR, Carolina, and Chicago isn't great after Toews. But, I'd say Arizona is in the bottom 25% or so of the league.
Obviously, but potential wise theyre a lot higher than that. Galchenyuk still has that 1C potential, he showed it just two years ago, dont let the stupidness in MTL fool you.

Strome is going to be a top 6 C. Youre talking about a guy that went ppg+ in the AHL at 21, he's not Matthews, but hes damn near the best C player outside of the NHL. He also put up respectable numbers last year late in the season. Im a fan.
 

93LEAFS

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Obviously, but potential wise theyre a lot higher than that. Galchenyuk still has that 1C potential, he showed it just two years ago, dont let the stupidness in MTL fool you.

Strome is going to be a top 6 C. Youre talking about a guy that went ppg+ in the AHL at 21, he's not Matthews, but hes damn near the best C player outside of the NHL. He also put up respectable numbers last year late in the season. Im a fan.
I don't think Galchenyuk will ever be a true #1 center that you'd be comfortable building your team around. Even at his best in Montreal, he wasn't that. At best he's 1b/2a guy who can run a sheltered offensive line. Look, I'm not writing Dylan Strome off, but you could go back 5 years and write that exact same sentence about Ryan Strome.
 
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Frank Drebin

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Are we assuming these 2 were born in October and would have another full season to develop or ranking the prospects "as is" today and inserting them into the 2019 draft?
 

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