Friedman: Kings may be interested in Steve Mason

[BrindamoursNose]

Please explain the claim that Mason is top 10 given the fact that he is outside of that group in all but 1 statistically relevant category for goaltenders over the past 3 seasons:

24th in GAA at 2.41
t-10 in SV% at .921
19th in SO at 7
27th in W at 41


edit: Neuvirth is a top 3 backup? He is also on his 4th team in 4 years, and was cast off by the Sabres (for Chad Johnson). They are, in this case, quite notably a team who are anything but set at the goaltender position...

Because the one category he excelled in is the only one that doesn't generally take into account overall team play, but rather merit of the goaltender.

 

[covfefe]

So your argument is that SV% has no correlation to team play, but GAA does? I am interested to understand this further. Particularly given that SV% as a metric is, by extension, based on...a goalie's ratio of saves to shots (the difference between the two being...goals allowed)

I recall us having fundamentally different opinions as to how to quantify the performance of a goaltender on a previous occasion, and I'll leave it at that.

 

[Starat327]

Please explain the claim that Mason is top 10 given the fact that he is outside of that group in all but 1 statistically relevant category for goaltenders over the past 3 seasons:

24th in GAA at 2.41
t-10 in SV% at .921
19th in SO at 7
27th in W at 41


edit: Neuvirth is a top 3 backup? He is also on his 4th team in 4 years, and was cast off by the Sabres (for Chad Johnson). They are, in this case, quite notably a team who are anything but set at the goaltender position...

Just out of curiosity. What did you limit your search parameters to? As in, how many minutes/games played. I remember them being much higher than that, but don't have the site in front of me.

Also, Neuvirth. If I remember correctly, was jettisoned by Buffalo because he was actually playing well and affecting their tank.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

So your argument is that SV% has no correlation to team play, but GAA does? I am interested to understand this further. Particularly given that SV% as a metric is, by extension, based on...a goalie's ratio of saves to shots (the difference between the two being...goals allowed)

I recall us having fundamentally different opinions as to how to quantify the performance of a goaltender on a previous occasion, and I'll leave it at that.

My argument is that Save Percentage is the stat with the least amount of dependence on team play.

I've known many bad goaltenders to have a great GAA due to a supreme defense. Rarely do those goaltenders also have a supreme save percentage as well. I believe SV% is by far the best indicator of goaltending performances because it literally tallies how many shots faced the goalie saves.

Of course you can argue shot quality if you want, but again this is my argument of the most common stats. Wins are ludicrous to even add in, IMO. They've got to be the 4th or 5th most important stat.

Yes, we've disagreed before on goaltending performance.

 

[covfefe]

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-3-nhl-seasons-goalies-stats.html

Happy to rehash the search parameters if that pleases you. Of goalies who have started at least 100 games in the past 3 seasons, Mason is:

13/17 in GAA
T5th/17 in SV% - quite clearly above avg. and very impressive relative to your d-corps. Tied with Luongo for this spot, .001 ahead of 4 other big names. Not trying to downplay the impressiveness of the figure, just pointing out that there is quite marginal separation between the 3rd and 10th spots here.
13th/17 in SO's
17th/17 in W - pretty irrelevant in this discussion, imo

I am unconvinced by anyone who says Mason is top 10 in the league with the above in mind. His SV% is unquestionably impressive, but it is also marginally (.001) higher than 3 (4?) guys I think everyone takes ahead of Mason: Fleury, Lundqvist, Rask, and Bishop.

Your second point might be true, I have no idea as to the internal dialogues that led to Neuvirth getting traded for Johnson. But it seems a bit far fetched that a rebuilding team would willingly rid themselves of (what your fan base seems to claim is) one of the single best backups in the league (by extension a reasonably competent stating goalie). Why would they not just...start him less often and keep him for the future?

Anyway, my argument is not that Mason is garbage, as hyperbole isn't my style. I simply don't believe that Mason is top 10 - he is average, and it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest with the above in mind.

 

[Starat327]

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-3-nhl-seasons-goalies-stats.html

Happy to rehash the search parameters if that pleases you. Of goalies who have started at least 100 games in the past 3 seasons, Mason is:

13/17 in GAA
T5th/17 in SV% - quite clearly above avg. and very impressive relative to your d-corps. Tied with Luongo for this spot, .001 ahead of 4 other big names. Not trying to downplay the impressiveness of the figure, just pointing out that there is quite marginal separation between the 3rd and 10th spots here.
13th/17 in SO's
17th/17 in W - pretty irrelevant in this discussion, imo

I am unconvinced by anyone who says Mason is top 10 in the league with the above in mind. His SV% is unquestionably impressive, but it is also marginally (.001) higher than 3 (4?) guys I think everyone takes ahead of Mason: Fleury, Lundqvist, Rask, and Bishop.

Your second point might be true, I have no idea as to the internal dialogues that led to Neuvirth getting traded for Johnson. But it seems a bit far fetched that a rebuilding team would willingly rid themselves of (what your fan base seems to claim is) one of the single best backups in the league (by extension a reasonably competent stating goalie). Why would they not just...start him less often and keep him for the future?

Anyway, my argument is not that Mason is garbage, as hyperbole isn't my style. I simply don't believe that Mason is top 10 - he is average, and it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest with the above in mind.

Thanks for posting, I couldn't remember which site I used. I think his even strength stats are what a lot of us focus on to make the claim that he is that good.

Save % is probably the most relevant to individual goalie performance, but I'm not going to nitpick. Wins and Shutouts are to me, completely irrelevant to the discussion. Mason lets in very few soft goals ( let's get the red line joke out of the way now), and stood on his head to carry us to the playoffs. I might be able to name 10 goalies I'd take over him over the last three years, but it'd probably be difficult, and he'd be right outside the top 10, if not in it. A lot of people still have a heavy bias from his CBJ days.

 

[Tripod]

http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-3-nhl-seasons-goalies-stats.html

Happy to rehash the search parameters if that pleases you. Of goalies who have started at least 100 games in the past 3 seasons, Mason is:

13/17 in GAA
T5th/17 in SV% - quite clearly above avg. and very impressive relative to your d-corps. Tied with Luongo for this spot, .001 ahead of 4 other big names. Not trying to downplay the impressiveness of the figure, just pointing out that there is quite marginal separation between the 3rd and 10th spots here.
13th/17 in SO's
17th/17 in W - pretty irrelevant in this discussion, imo

I am unconvinced by anyone who says Mason is top 10 in the league with the above in mind. His SV% is unquestionably impressive, but it is also marginally (.001) higher than 3 (4?) guys I think everyone takes ahead of Mason: Fleury, Lundqvist, Rask, and Bishop.

Your second point might be true, I have no idea as to the internal dialogues that led to Neuvirth getting traded for Johnson. But it seems a bit far fetched that a rebuilding team would willingly rid themselves of (what your fan base seems to claim is) one of the single best backups in the league (by extension a reasonably competent stating goalie). Why would they not just...start him less often and keep him for the future?

Anyway, my argument is not that Mason is garbage, as hyperbole isn't my style. I simply don't believe that Mason is top 10 - he is average, and it doesn't seem unreasonable to suggest with the above in mind.

When you eliminate the backups on that list when you search by SV%, Mason is 6th. You might not like him, but he stops the pucks just as well as the other guys you listed.

Then add in that Philly's best Dmen....are Gudas and MDZ. Not like he is hiding behind a great defense or a great team.

As for Neuvirth, he was 4th in SV% in the league last year. And yes, Buffalo did trade him away because he was playing too good the year before. Hell, fans were booing when the team was winning.

 

[Kingspiracy]

Thanks for posting, I couldn't remember which site I used. I think his even strength stats are what a lot of us focus on to make the claim that he is that good.

Save % is probably the most relevant to individual goalie performance, but I'm not going to nitpick. Wins and Shutouts are to me, completely irrelevant to the discussion. Mason lets in very few soft goals ( let's get the red line joke out of the way now), and stood on his head to carry us to the playoffs. I might be able to name 10 goalies I'd take over him over the last three years, but it'd probably be difficult, and he'd be right outside the top 10, if not in it. A lot of people still have a heavy bias from his CBJ days.

One regular poster here posted some interesting statistics about SA and SV%, showing that in a lot of cases goalies that faced fewer shots against had a poorer SV% than guys that were getting shelled each night. I'm not certain why, perhaps due to getting warmed up and not falling asleep in net or due to quality of chances, but it made for interesting reading.

Mason is a good netminder, not sure why the flyers would move him.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah not sure why Philly would do this, unless they absolutely love Stolarz and want to bring him up.

Mason might want 6mill plus a year he needs a new contract

Yeah. This is the only way it makes even a shred of sense.

I've just kinda worked on the assumption that Mason is going to be the one the Flyers choose to go with moving forward...the one who gets the contract before this summer. But then, Neuvirth did step in for the playoffs and look better. He also may come with more reasonable contract demands if the Flyers really are sold on some of their many assorted high-end goaltending prospects. They've got a heck of pipeline going there right now - many of them could be at least a few years off, but if Mason is wanting some kind of "starting goaltender megadeal" contract, like a $6Mx 6 years type thing...that would really handcuff Philly to Mason as their future in net long-term, which i can see why they may not want that.

 

[Vikke]

Neuvirth stepped in and looked good in the playoffs because he was hurt during the final month, which forced Mason to play something like 19 (?) straight games, a lot of back to backs and he was understandably out of energy. It showed. Let's not pretend Neuvirth is a better goalie.

 

[PALE PWNR]

5v5 Save Percentage >5000 minutes played 2013-2016

1. .9388 Carey Price
2. .9349 Steve Mason
3. .9331 Tuuka Rask
4. .9323 Henrik Lundqvist
5. .9313 Roberto Luongo
6. .9306 Corey Crawford
7. .9305 Brian Elliot
8. 9304 Cory Schneider
9. .9303 Braden Holtby
10. .9283 Ben Bishop
11T. .9281 Jonathan Quick
11T. .9281 Craig Anderson
13T. .9278 Cam Talbot
13T. .9278 Devan Dubnyk
15. .9263 Marc-Andre Fleury
16. .9262 Semyon Varlamov
17T. .9256 Frederik Andersen
17T. .9256 Sergei Bobrovsky
19. .9242 Pekka Rinne
20T. .9231 Jonathan Bernier
20T. .9231 Mike Smith
22. .9229 Jimmy Howard
23. .9228 Jaroslav Halak
24. .9217 Ryan Miller
25. .9209 Antti Niemi
26. .9197 Jonas Hiller
27. .9187 Eddie Lack
28. .9185 Ondrej Pavelec
29. .9180 Kari Lehtonen
30. .9159 Cam Ward
31. .9153 Ben Scrivens

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=SvPct&sortdir=DESC

 

[Liver King]

Neuvirth stepped in and looked good in the playoffs because he was hurt during the final month, which forced Mason to play something like 19 (?) straight games, a lot of back to backs and he was understandably out of energy. It showed. Let's not pretend Neuvirth is a better goalie.

which one would you rather keep, if you had to choose

 

[Rebels57]

which one would you rather keep, if you had to choose

Most Flyers fans will tell you that Mason should be the guy we extend.

He's played behind some brutal defenses and bad PKs and has still put up very good to great numbers. As the Flyers D improves over the next few seasons, he may be back in that .920-.925 save percentage range.

Additionally, Neuvirth doesn't appear to be durable enough to handle heavy workloads.

 

[covfefe]

When you eliminate the backups on that list when you search by SV%, Mason is 6th. You might not like him, but he stops the pucks just as well as the other guys you listed.

Then add in that Philly's best Dmen....are Gudas and MDZ. Not like he is hiding behind a great defense or a great team.

As for Neuvirth, he was 4th in SV% in the league last year. And yes, Buffalo did trade him away because he was playing too good the year before. Hell, fans were booing when the team was winning.

I appreciate that you guys want to stick up for your guy and think that's laudable. Nonetheless, I'll put my money where my mouth is and list 10+ goalies I easily take before Mason in a free-for-all expansion draft:

- Price
- Schneider
- Lundqvist
- Rask
- Rinne
- Murray
- Quick
- Holtby
- Jones
- Bishop
- Fleury
- Crawford

To me, Mason is a tier below those guys and in a crop that includes Bobrovsky, Allen, Mrazek, Varlamov, a few others who escape me as I am hungover AF. I'd like to be convinced otherwise, and I'm sure you'll be slighted at the inclusion of Fleury and Crawford, but they are proven winners and that means something in this league.

I will never understand anyone sticking up for Neuvirth who is as middle of the road as it gets. Teams do not continually trade away talented netminders. He had his chance to shine in Washington and lost out to Holtby, was moved by two teams with very lacking netminders...What other signals do you need to see that he is not the guy in the long-run?? You also have no idea as to Buffalo's internal dialogues and I will never understand why you pretend as much. Neuvirth is a suitcase and there is a reason for that. Yes he was 4th in the league on an arbitrary GP basis - Thomas Greiss was 2nd..............................


Either way, I'd love for Appleyard to pop in here and spit some knowledge at me but have no doubt that such a discussion is far below his hourly

 

[Rebels57]

Neuvirth stepped in and looked good in the playoffs because he was hurt during the final month, which forced Mason to play something like 19 (?) straight games, a lot of back to backs and he was understandably out of energy. It showed. Let's not pretend Neuvirth is a better goalie.

Yeah he played 18 of 19 to close out last season with three sets of back-to-backs mixed in, in must win games as the Flyers were trying to claw into the playoffs. He just had nothing left by the time the Caps series started.

 

[Rebels57]

I appreciate that you guys want to stick up for your guy and think that's laudable. Nonetheless, I'll put my money where my mouth is and list 10+ goalies I easily take before Mason in a free-for-all expansion draft:

- Price
- Schneider
- Lundqvist
- Rask
- Rinne
- Murray
- Quick
- Holtby
- Jones
- Bishop
- Fleury
- Crawford

To me, Mason is a tier below those guys and in a crop that includes Bobrovsky, Allen, Mrazek, Varlamov, a few others who escape me as I am hungover AF. I'd like to be convinced otherwise, and I'm sure you'll be slighted at the inclusion of Fleury and Crawford, but they are proven winners and that means something in this league.

I will never understand anyone sticking up for Neuvirth who is as middle of the road as it gets. Teams do not continually trade away talented netminders; you also have no idea as to Buffalo's internal dialogues and I will never understand why you pretend as much. Neuvirth is a suitcase and there is a reason for that. Yes he was 4th in the league on an arbitrary GP basis - Thomas Greiss was 2nd..............................


Either way, I'd love for Appleyard to pop in here and spit some knowledge at me but have no doubt that such a discussion is far below his hourly

Mason should not be below Jones, or 16-17 Rinne, but the rest I will agree on.

Murray the jury is still out but can't argue against it at the moment.

 

[PALE PWNR]

Mason's total Sv% is drug down significantly by a terrible Flyers PK over the past 3 years. Of the goalies I listed above his PKS% is 28th out of those 31 goalies. Only Andersen, Scrivens, Reimer, and Hiller have lower.

 

[Tripod]

5v5 Save Percentage >5000 minutes played 2013-2016

1. .9388 Carey Price
2. .9349 Steve Mason
3. .9331 Tuuka Rask
4. .9323 Henrik Lundqvist
5. .9313 Roberto Luongo
6. .9306 Corey Crawford
7. .9305 Brian Elliot
8. 9304 Cory Schneider
9. .9303 Braden Holtby
10. .9283 Ben Bishop
11T. .9281 Jonathan Quick
11T. .9281 Craig Anderson
13T. .9278 Cam Talbot
13T. .9278 Devan Dubnyk
15. .9263 Marc-Andre Fleury
16. .9262 Semyon Varlamov
17T. .9256 Frederik Andersen
17T. .9256 Sergei Bobrovsky
19. .9242 Pekka Rinne
20T. .9231 Jonathan Bernier
20T. .9231 Mike Smith
22. .9229 Jimmy Howard
23. .9228 Jaroslav Halak
24. .9217 Ryan Miller
25. .9209 Antti Niemi
26. .9197 Jonas Hiller
27. .9187 Eddie Lack
28. .9185 Ondrej Pavelec
29. .9180 Kari Lehtonen
30. .9159 Cam Ward
31. .9153 Ben Scrivens

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...0&teamid=0&type=goals&sort=SvPct&sortdir=DESC

And here is what is frustrating.

In the playoffs, everyone saw our passive PK get eaten alive by Washington. They changed to an aggressive style when Neuvirth went in.

So then what happens this year? They dumb coaches have us playing a passive style again. So dumb.

 

[Vikke]

which one would you rather keep, if you had to choose

I mean, it obviously depends a LOT on contract demands etc, but I'd rather have Mason if his asking price is reasonable.

 

[biturbo19]

I mean, it obviously depends a LOT on contract demands etc, but I'd rather have Mason if his asking price is reasonable.

Yeah. Although i think term is probably the biggest potential sticking point. You don't want to run into a situation where you extend Mason to a long-term deal with the sort of job security many veteran starters look for...only to end up with a Howard being surpassed by Mrazek type situation.

Even if Mason's dollar figure is "reasonable"...if he wants say Jimmy Howard money, like ~$5.3M x 6 years...do you want to commit to Mason as your "starter" with that kind of money for the next half dozen seasons? Especially when you've got Stolarz, Hart, Sandstrom, Lyon, Tomek, etc. coming along.

Have to be pretty sold on Mason's ability to be better that he has at crunch time under pressure to sign a guy right through into his expected declining year.


It's not just about getting Mason at "good value"...it's about the opportunity cost of locking yourself in to that particular guy as your starter for a long time, if you think there might be even better (and cheaper) options coming along down the pipeline.

 

[Bleedred]

As a Devils fan, I hope the Flyers trade Mason and sign Neuvirth to a 5 or 6 year deal. Mason is the superior goaltender, I don't think Hextall is that dumb though. Holmgren would have already done it yesterday, if not 6 months ago after the playoffs ended.

Since the Sharks are my second favorite team, I can't stand the Kings either. Although I don't hate them as much as the Flyers. I'd rather see them roll Budaj, dude is terrible. But I'd laugh if Flyers management gave up on Mason and chose Neuvirth, then gave Neuvirth some really dumb contract.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Kypreos confirmed that the kings looked into mason on headlines tonight.

 

[Starat327]

One regular poster here posted some interesting statistics about SA and SV%, showing that in a lot of cases goalies that faced fewer shots against had a poorer SV% than guys that were getting shelled each night. I'm not certain why, perhaps due to getting warmed up and not falling asleep in net or due to quality of chances, but it made for interesting reading.

Mason is a good netminder, not sure why the flyers would move him.

I think it's pretty subjective. As a goalie, I myself like to be more involved in the game and see more shots. As you said, it keeps you more focused on the game than if you are spending 3 minutes watching your team barrage the other keeper. However, there's a caveat. I don't like to be shelled with high % shots. If my team continues to allow breaks on me, and high percent shots, it gets tiring, both physically and mentally, and you start to slip. I can certainly understand both schools of thought, it just really depends on the individuals own psyche.

 

[Rebels57]

Yeah, he does actually.

But I don't think anyone would expect you to post otherwise when it comes to a Flyer.

Yeah 27 saves on 30 shots doesn't look great on paper last night against Carolina, but all 3 goals were practically unstoppable and he made multiple huge saves when the game was still up for grabs. The Flyers D is going to bleed goals until they get their top defensive pair back, much like any other Defense in the league would.

 

[Curufinwe]

Well this would have been a disaster for the Flyers. Neuvirth hasn't got out of the 2nd period in his last two games.