Player Discussion: Kieffer Bellows *Waived - Claimed by Philadelphia Flyers*

[Chapin Landvogt]

Re bolded above. Which prospect has Lou held onto too long while watching their value tank?

I've actually talked about this with a bit more detail in a couple of posts the past few weeks. I can't say I'm familiar with you as a regular poster around these parts (maybe I'm wrong), so if the topic should be of that much interest to you, feel free to check them out.

Lou inherited a team with ONE prospect of value (Bellows)...

Wait, what about Sorokin and Toews?

And Salo and <gulp> Aho?

And of course, we had two other first rounders at that time who were quickly approaching the make-or-break it point.

Ahem...

2014. Dal Colle and Ho-Sang had no value when Lou arrived. Smartly, Lou hung onto Sorokin and Toews. Rest of the draft never had any value.

Yep, I don't see that bolded part being an opinion that will be backed much by people in the know if you take a closer look at the timeline.

In the 18-19 season, Dal Colle's third as a pro, he was a PPG player in the AHL and also had 7 points in 28 NHL games with minimal ice time. There were also a ton bodies ahead of him at the NHL level, particularly for lower-line duties.

Ho-Sang had 10 points in 21 games in his rookie season and then 12 in 22 games his second pro season. In each, he had over 30 points in exactly 50 AHL games. Enter Lamoriello as the GM with a club that looked like it was going to be starving for offense. JHS got into 10 games. Had 2 points and we won like 9 of those game. The fan shitstorm was off the charts when the Isles sent him down in the midst of all that winning. That's just a (vivid) sidenote.

Anyone can think of all that what they will - I happen to think that's when you know if a guy is going to be part of the answer and if not, you flip him while you can - but you're not going to convince someone who's been around the block that they simply "had no value when Lou arrived".

That's just not supported by the situation at the time.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Based on the logic of trading Bellows when he still had value but had yet to break out, we should probably trade Wahlstrom now. Kinda interesting that we don't see the same people using that logic also saying we should trade Wahlstrom, though.

I was also told back in the day that it was obvious DP was going to get injured and cost him his career and Wang should have known better. It was so easy to tell. This board sometimes, lol....

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Based on the logic of trading Bellows when he still had value but had yet to break out, we should probably trade Wahlstrom now. Kinda interesting that we don't see the same people using that logic also saying we should trade Wahlstrom, though.

To be honest, I think that all the time.

Have thought about that a lot the past three summers. I thought about it all last season. I thought about it at the trade deadline and with Lou's comments about a hockey trade. I thought about it heading up to the draft. I've thought about it intensively the past five games.

I don't write much about trade scenarios, but I've thrown out a few the past few years and Wahlstrom was in the middle of most of them.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do.... but I think he's going to need a long, long time to become a scorer in this league - if it actually goes click at some point - and he's the type of guy for whom that needs to be his calling card. He needs to be a scorer. That is how he's going to make it - or not.

More importantly, we need a scorer next to Barzal. I think we're clearly in a win-now phase and Wahlstrom doesn't look close to being the guy to put us over the top.

But someone to put us over the top is what this team needs next to Barzal.

Up to now, over five years of GMing, there's been zero indication that a guy like Wahlstrom would be used to perhaps be part of what brings us what Barzal needs.

 

[Rehabguy]

Well my thoughts on this is if it is fair to say Matthew Barzal and others offensive game suffered under Trotz system it’s safe to say the same applies to both Bellows and Wally. I say give Wally a year or two because his NHL offensive development starts and now the same could have been for Bellows. He needed more time under a different coach to see what he could have done offensively just like the rest of this roster and who can question that a change/modification to the previous system made a difference for individual players on this team.

That’s where a lot of my disappointment comes from and the context behind my posts in this thread. I think we let Bellows go a little too soon. In fact I thought the 1.2 million contract he was signed for was an indication that Lou felt the kid had something to offer but needed a chance under a “new voice”. Not saying he’s going to succeed in this league but assessing his abilities under the previous system I think was foolhardy. Look how much improved Barzals game is under a different coach. Bellows and Wally didn’t have the luxury to develop their skills under offensively oriented coach. It must be a hard way to start your NHL career as a gifted forward under a hyper restrictive system but look at how well the team is doing offensively under a different system.

As I’ve remarked throughout the summer we’ve always had a talented roster and I was excited for this season to start. Trotz is the best coach for a prospect or young player to develop their defensive game. He’s the worst to develop their offensive skills at the NHL level. As much as I appreciated the wins the transition to a more balanced system under Lambert is a welcome one.

 

[Seph]

To be honest, I think that all the time.

Have thought about that a lot the past three summers. I thought about it all last season. I thought about it at the trade deadline and with Lou's comments about a hockey trade. I thought about it heading up to the draft. I've thought about it intensively the past five games.

I don't write much about trade scenarios, but I've thrown out a few the past few years and Wahlstrom was in the middle of most of them.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do.... but I think he's going to need a long, long time to become a scorer in this league - if it actually goes click at some point - and he's the type of guy for whom that needs to be his calling card. He needs to be a scorer. That is how he's going to make it - or not.

More importantly, we need a scorer next to Barzal. I think we're clearly in a win-now phase and Wahlstrom doesn't look close to being the guy to put us over the top.

But someone to put us over the top is what this team needs next to Barzal.

Up to now, over five years of GMing, there's been zero indication that a guy like Wahlstrom would be used to perhaps be part of what brings us what Barzal needs.

Fair enough, appreciate your consistency on the topic. I too would be willing to move Wahlstrom in the right deal, if it would bring back a legit top player in their prime, though I do think we'd still need to add for him to net that.

 

[Rehabguy]

I've actually talked about this with a bit more detail in a couple of posts the past few weeks. I can't say I'm familiar with you as a regular poster around these parts (maybe I'm wrong), so if the topic should be of that much interest to you, feel free to check them out.



Wait, what about Sorokin and Toews?

And Salo and <gulp> Aho?

And of course, we had two other first rounders at that time who were quickly approaching the make-or-break it point.

Ahem...



Yep, I don't see that bolded part being an opinion that will be backed much by people in the know if you take a closer look at the timeline.

In the 18-19 season, Dal Colle's third as a pro, he was a PPG player in the AHL and also had 7 points in 28 NHL games with minimal ice time. There were also a ton bodies ahead of him at the NHL level, particularly for lower-line duties.

Ho-Sang had 10 points in 21 games in his rookie season and then 12 in 22 games his second pro season. In each, he had over 30 points in exactly 50 AHL games. Enter Lamoriello as the GM with a club that looked like it was going to be starving for offense. JHS got into 10 games. Had 2 points and we won like 9 of those game. The fan shitstorm was off the charts when the Isles sent him down in the midst of all that winning. That's just a (vivid) sidenote.

Anyone can think of all that what they will - I happen to think that's when you know if a guy is going to be part of the answer and if not, you flip him while you can - but you're not going to convince someone who's been around the block that they simply "had no value when Lou arrived".

That's just not supported by the situation at the time.

Agreed. As much I think Lou did a good job bolstering Snow’s roster his management of prospects and picks has been questionable. Nice to hear from someone who reasons with their brain and not their emotions.

 

[Top Corner]

To be honest, I think that all the time.

Have thought about that a lot the past three summers. I thought about it all last season. I thought about it at the trade deadline and with Lou's comments about a hockey trade. I thought about it heading up to the draft. I've thought about it intensively the past five games.

I don't write much about trade scenarios, but I've thrown out a few the past few years and Wahlstrom was in the middle of most of them.

I hope I'm wrong, I really do.... but I think he's going to need a long, long time to become a scorer in this league - if it actually goes click at some point - and he's the type of guy for whom that needs to be his calling card. He needs to be a scorer. That is how he's going to make it - or not.

More importantly, we need a scorer next to Barzal. I think we're clearly in a win-now phase and Wahlstrom doesn't look close to being the guy to put us over the top.

But someone to put us over the top is what this team needs next to Barzal.

Up to now, over five years of GMing, there's been zero indication that a guy like Wahlstrom would be used to perhaps be part of what brings us what Barzal needs.

Watching Walhstroms game closely and I just don't see the foot speed and lateral movement
that will allow for him to score in this league on a regular basis. I know many people have high hopes but I think
he's toast.

 

[islandersbob]

I've actually talked about this with a bit more detail in a couple of posts the past few weeks. I can't say I'm familiar with you as a regular poster around these parts (maybe I'm wrong), so if the topic should be of that much interest to you, feel free to check them out.



Wait, what about Sorokin and Toews?

And Salo and <gulp> Aho?

And of course, we had two other first rounders at that time who were quickly approaching the make-or-break it point.

Ahem...



Yep, I don't see that bolded part being an opinion that will be backed much by people in the know if you take a closer look at the timeline.

In the 18-19 season, Dal Colle's third as a pro, he was a PPG player in the AHL and also had 7 points in 28 NHL games with minimal ice time. There were also a ton bodies ahead of him at the NHL level, particularly for lower-line duties.

Ho-Sang had 10 points in 21 games in his rookie season and then 12 in 22 games his second pro season. In each, he had over 30 points in exactly 50 AHL games. Enter Lamoriello as the GM with a club that looked like it was going to be starving for offense. JHS got into 10 games. Had 2 points and we won like 9 of those game. The fan shitstorm was off the charts when the Isles sent him down in the midst of all that winning. That's just a (vivid) sidenote.

Anyone can think of all that what they will - I happen to think that's when you know if a guy is going to be part of the answer and if not, you flip him while you can - but you're not going to convince someone who's been around the block that they simply "had no value when Lou arrived".

That's just not supported by the situation at the time.

IMO Bellows is the only prospect that you could argue Lou wasted value on. However, the timing of the circumstances made it very difficult to expect Lou to get any value out of Bellows. Bellows all time high value was probably after the 2017-2018 WHL season. Lou took over in the summer of 2018. By the end of the 2018-2019 season (1 year on the job for Lou), Bellows value had tanked. 2 of the previous 3 seasons Bellows had failed to live up to his expectations of being a goal scorer. His one good season was his D+2 season where he put up good but not great numbers (#1 and #2 in WHL goals also in their D+2 season scored 70 and 61). At that point Bellows was worth more to the Isles than he was in trade.

NHL regulars like Sorokin and Toews never had declining value. They had separated themselves and were looking like future Isles.

Re: Dal Colle and Ho-Sang. Ho-Sang had no NHL value the moment he was drafted by Garth Snow. According to reports 1/2 or more teams had him on do not draft lists. He was the Isles baby and no one was going to help them out.

Dal Colle was a struggling prospect with virtually no value when Lou took over in 2018. What he did in 2018-19 has little bearing because by that time Dal Colle's value was completely shot. Before Lou took over, Dal Colle had played 138 AHL games and produced 22 goals. Only an idiot GM would trade anything of value for that. Do you honestly believe that a PPG AHL half season, interwoven with 28 crappy NHL games is all of a sudden going to boost a players value considerably?

Hypothetical: Would you have traded anything of value for Kravtsov after his failed first stint with the Rangers (end of 20-21 season)?

TLDR: Bellows was never a blue chip. Nor did he increase his value with his play. He had multiple disappointing seasons after being drafted.
Dal Colle was a blue chipper at the draft. By the time Lou took over in summer of 2018, Dal Colle was a reclamation project at best. In order for the Isles to have gotten any value on Dal Colle he needed to be traded summer of 2018, which would have required the trade of Dal Colle to almost be Lou's first order of business as Isles GM.

 

[CupHolders]

IMO Bellows is the only prospect that you could argue Lou wasted value on. However, the timing of the circumstances made it very difficult to expect Lou to get any value out of Bellows. Bellows all time high value was probably after the 2017-2018 WHL season. Lou took over in the summer of 2018. By the end of the 2018-2019 season (1 year on the job for Lou), Bellows value had tanked. 2 of the previous 3 seasons Bellows had failed to live up to his expectations of being a goal scorer. His one good season was his D+2 season where he put up good but not great numbers (#1 and #2 in WHL goals also in their D+2 season scored 70 and 61). At that point Bellows was worth more to the Isles than he was in trade.

NHL regulars like Sorokin and Toews never had declining value. They had separated themselves and were looking like future Isles.

Re: Dal Colle and Ho-Sang. Ho-Sang had no NHL value the moment he was drafted by Garth Snow. According to reports 1/2 or more teams had him on do not draft lists. He was the Isles baby and no one was going to help them out.

Dal Colle was a struggling prospect with virtually no value when Lou took over in 2018. What he did in 2018-19 has little bearing because by that time Dal Colle's value was completely shot. Before Lou took over, Dal Colle had played 138 AHL games and produced 22 goals. Only an idiot GM would trade anything of value for that. Do you honestly believe that a PPG AHL half season, interwoven with 28 crappy NHL games is all of a sudden going to boost a players value considerably?

Hypothetical: Would you have traded anything of value for Kravtsov after his failed first stint with the Rangers (end of 20-21 season)?

TLDR: Bellows was never a blue chip. Nor did he increase his value with his play. He had multiple disappointing seasons after being drafted.
Dal Colle was a blue chipper at the draft. By the time Lou took over in summer of 2018, Dal Colle was a reclamation project at best. In order for the Isles to have gotten any value on Dal Colle he needed to be traded summer of 2018, which would have required the trade of Dal Colle to almost be Lou's first order of business as Isles GM.

Excellent break down, and couldn’t agree more about Bellows and the timing of his value decline to incoming new management.

It would’ve been irresponsible for Lou to move Bellows or any prospect as soon as he arrived. Unfortunately, Bellows took that year to not progress 12 goals in 71 AHL games. The following year getting caught using PEDS.

Not exactly a screaming endorsement for maintaining value as an asset.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Why is this still on page one?

 

[PK Cronin]

Why is this still on page one?

Because she's tearing it up with Philadelphia now that he's been given a real chance.

 

[Sparksrus3]

Why is this still on page one?

Ok I’ll go bump the Josh Ho Sang thread……. He got injured in his first khl game

 

[Big L]

Because she's tearing it up with Philadelphia now that he's been given a real chance.

Freudian slip?

 

[MJF]

Because she's tearing it up with Philadelphia now that he's been given a real chance.

Obviously Trotz ruined Bellows because he hates kids.

 

[Mike C]

Obviously Trotz ruined Bellows because he hates kids.

He's gonna love Toronto!

Ok I’ll go bump the Josh Ho Sang thread……. He got injured in his first khl game

Army deferment

 

[MattMartin]

Waived again, not sure if posted elsewhere.

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

When he's put back on waivers, the Isles can just reclaim him.

I AM A GOLDEN GOD.

 

[seafoam]

If they claim him I believe he can go to the AHL without hitting waivers again. Not suggesting that, just pointing that out.

 

[Strummergas]

I was told he was gonna be great...

 

[Mike C]

I was told he was gonna be great...

At what??

 

[redbull]

Ok I’ll go bump the Josh Ho Sang thread……. He got injured in his first khl game

Kid ain't no kid anymore, just couldn't put it together. Fell in love with his speed and hands and never figured out how to score/defend as a pro - not even at the AHL level. Amazing talent. Robbie Schremp was another one.

Went down a Mike Bossy YouTube binge earlier tonight for no reason. Isles players need to do a 24hr session of just those clips, how many pucks he put on net, how quickly it was on-off his stick, battling for position in high-danger areas. No perimeter play to score that many.

I feel like it's such a simple message.

I've been involved in minor hockey and it's amazing the coaches who marvel over a kid's speed and cannot see that they lack any hockey sense at all. Some of the best skaters and don't know how to score, it's a completely separate skillset that's really hard to spot in young players.

Gameday tomorrow !

 

[Seph]

If they claim him I believe he can go to the AHL without hitting waivers again. Not suggesting that, just pointing that out.

I wouldn't mind if we did. I think with a couple years in the AHL to work on his skating and positioning he could be a middle 6 forward in the NHL. But the odds aren't crazy high so I also wouldn't be bummed if we didn't claim him.

 

[Mike C]

Kid ain't no kid anymore, just couldn't put it together. Fell in love with his speed and hands and never figured out how to score/defend as a pro - not even at the AHL level. Amazing talent. Robbie Schremp was another one.

Went down a Mike Bossy YouTube binge earlier tonight for no reason. Isles players need to do a 24hr session of just those clips, how many pucks he put on net, how quickly it was on-off his stick, battling for position in high-danger areas. No perimeter play to score that many.

I feel like it's such a simple message.

I've been involved in minor hockey and it's amazing the coaches who marvel over a kid's speed and cannot see that they lack any hockey sense at all. Some of the best skaters and don't know how to score, it's a completely separate skillset that's really hard to spot in young players.

Gameday tomorrow !

I saw an interview with Bossy and he said that he ALWAYS knew where the net was and that's why his release was lightening. He just knew where he was shooting before the puck ever got to him. He thought the game as well as he played it.

 

[BelovedIsles]

Watching Walhstroms game closely and I just don't see the foot speed and lateral movement
that will allow for him to score in this league on a regular basis. I know many people have high hopes but I think
he's toast.

I agree, but I wouldn't go as far as saying he's 'toast.' He just may end up being a middle/low tier 2nd liner. His mobility and decision making are going to limit him. He doesn't move intelligently in the offensive zone to make himself available to use his shot. He does on the rush, but not the cycle. He overhandles the puck and doesn't have the agility to maneuver around defenders. That said, he can still work on his mobility, but I don't think he'll ever be that dynamic, 35-goal winger he was projected to be.

 

[Mike C]

I agree, but I wouldn't go as far as saying he's 'toast.' He just may end up being a middle/low tier 2nd liner. His mobility and decision making are going to limit him. He doesn't move intelligently in the offensive zone to make himself available to use his shot. He does on the rush, but not the cycle. He overhandles the puck and doesn't have the agility to maneuver around defenders. That said, he can still work on his mobility, but I don't think he'll ever be that dynamic, 35-goal winger he was projected to be.

i'd be ok with a mid/low tier 2nd liner especially considering he is growing into a bit of an enforcer out there. isn't that right Tony??