Kessel - Interesting article...

[Dipsy Doodle]

Kessel is the type of player I could see getting us a top ten pick. That COULD be huge if they draft right. Imagine bringing in a Horvat type in the next year or two.
That extends the window tremendously.

But Horvat didn't score more than 40 points until 4 years after he was drafted.

In the meantime we'd have traded an elite winger for what? A good prospect and cap space that could go to a far lesser player?

Seems to me a trade like that would be closer to ending our window than extending it. Picks in that range don't typically become impact players right out of the box - I wouldn't count on that happening.

 

[Gurglesons]

And if you get a Derrick Pouliot? Then what? We traded a 90 pt player for a risk? I'd rather go with the devil I know.

Obviously you get a 1st and a roster player. Who knows. I think there are ways you could win a Kessel trade.

 

[Gurglesons]

But Horvat didn't score more than 40 points until 4 years after he was drafted.

In the meantime we'd have traded an elite winger for what? A good prospect and cap space that could go to a far lesser player?

Seems to me a trade like that would be closer to ending our window than extending it. Picks in that range don't typically become impact players right out of the box - I wouldn't count on that happening.

Technically three.

Getting a Horvat like player for our fourth line in a year that can grow into knocking out some of the ice time for Sid would be huge.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Said this before but it's at the point where Phil's name should always be up for sale until you get a slam dunk package back.
Don't get it?
Continue to work with him to get the best out of 'em.

 

[Peat]

Right now the only realistic way to be odds on to win a Kessel trade is to have already signed his replacement in free agency and be selling him on for futures.

I say this in the belief that if there was non-risky offers to swap Kessel for players who'd do more to help us now, or a very enticing futures package, that Kessel would already be traded. Since he's not, his valuation on the market probably falls short of where it needs to be to make sense for us and that is unlikely to change anytime soon.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Technically three.

Getting a Horvat like player for our fourth line in a year that can grow into knocking out some of the ice time for Sid would be huge.

He was drafted in '13 and only scored more than 40 in '17.

If we dealt Kessel for a top 10 pick this season and were lucky enough to get a Horvat-like player on a Horvat-like trajectory in that spot, he wouldn't be playing in the NHL until '20-'21 and wouldn't score more than 40 points until '22-'23.

In other words, not really something we should count on, and the timeline doesn't make sense either. In an absolutely ideal scenario, we'd be giving up an elite winger for a guy who wouldn't make a significant impact for years.

Unless we've got a great plan for that extra cap space, the magic bean strategy probably isn't the best one to keep this team a contender. We ought to be wary of giving up a superstar winger on a sweetheart deal for Prospect X.

 

[TheGuiminator]

It’s been a long time that I want to see Kessel out of Pittsburgh. He doesn’t bring anything special to the table anymore. Yes he’s a good playmaker with a good shot, but that’s about it. He doesn’t bring energy, he’s lazy, soft defensively and it’s only gonna get worse from then on. There’s a lot of young players that could bring what Kessel does with even more drive. Phil did pretty good for the time he was on the team but now it’s time to move on. He peaked last year during the season and had a solid playoff run in 2016. That’s the most he had to offer and that’s good enough for me.

JR should make a package deal involving Kessel, Brassard and Maatta and try to bring some decent, young and fast players, so we can have more depth. Playing Kessel on the 3rd line with an ineffective center like Brassard won’t make him any favor, so trade him before his value goes down.

 

[ColePens]

Kessel literally had 90 points last year. 92 to be exact. Nothing special? On pace for about 80 points this year (82-83 to be exact). Nothing special? Finished 2nd in the CS voting of the 2016 playoffs, right? He should have won. One of the games that sticks out in that Sens 2017 series is when the Pens COULD NOT score and Kessel comes down and gets our only goal, which we won 1-0. How many times have we watched that game in the Bylsma era and prayed for secondary scoring outside Geno/Sid. Insert Phil Kessel.

I could not disagree with you more. He's the definition of special. Sure his neutral zone and defensive ability is a lot in question. He plays an interesting brand of hockey. But good luck finding a winger like him for 6.8m on the open market who can put up 70-90 points. 70-90 points nowdays is getting you a shit load of money. So unless you want to pay someone 10m (more than Sid/Geno) to play similar to Kessel, good luck.

 

[TheGuiminator]

Kessel literally had 90 points last year. 92 to be exact. Nothing special? On pace for about 80 points this year (82-83 to be exact). Nothing special? Finished 2nd in the CS voting of the 2016 playoffs, right? He should have won. One of the games that sticks out in that Sens 2017 series is when the Pens COULD NOT score and Kessel comes down and gets our only goal, which we won 1-0. How many times have we watched that game in the Bylsma era and prayed for secondary scoring outside Geno/Sid. Insert Phil Kessel.

I could not disagree with you more. He's the definition of special. Sure his neutral zone and defensive ability is a lot in question. He plays an interesting brand of hockey. But good luck finding a winger like him for 6.8m on the open market who can put up 70-90 points. 70-90 points nowdays is getting you a **** load of money. So unless you want to pay someone 10m (more than Sid/Geno) to play similar to Kessel, good luck.

I think you misread my post, I said he doesn’t bring anything special ANYMORE. So I’m talking about this season. I did consider his success during the 2016 playoff and last year’s regular season. If you watch him play right now, he’s not as good as his point total shows, expect him to decline even more as the season go on. He won’t reach 90 points again, last season was his peak.

 

[Gurglesons]

He was drafted in '13 and only scored more than 40 in '17.

If we dealt Kessel for a top 10 pick this season and were lucky enough to get a Horvat-like player on a Horvat-like trajectory in that spot, he wouldn't be playing in the NHL until '20-'21 and wouldn't score more than 40 points until '22-'23.

In other words, not really something we should count on, and the timeline doesn't make sense either. In an absolutely ideal scenario, we'd be giving up an elite winger for a guy who wouldn't make a significant impact for years.

Unless we've got a great plan for that extra cap space, the magic bean strategy probably isn't the best one to keep this team a contender. We ought to be wary of giving up a superstar winger on a sweetheart deal for Prospect X.

Horvat was drafted in the summer of 2013.

2013-14
2014-15 68 GP 25 pts
2015-16 82 GP 40 pts

It was technically three seasons. Having a player that can step in in a year and put up 25 pts and play a sound defensive game in the bottom four in a year is huge.

So he’d hopefully be an impact 2C when Sid was 35. Giving us another four years of contention if Sid stays healthy and on pace that we imagine. Basically, the San Jose model. They packaged picks acquired by moving players together to move up and take Couts which extended their window

Also, I’d hope for a Patches like return. A 30-50 pt winger, and a pick / prospect like Suzuki.

 

[House of tpo]

This guy, Kingerski, is a huge Sullivan apologist and dislikes Kessel and Geno...he’s written other articles belittling Phil and G...I wouldn’t take anything he writes on the subject to be gospel...

you're absolutely right kingerski also hates murray ,hated sprong

 

[Ogrezilla]

I think you misread my post, I said he doesn’t bring anything special ANYMORE. So I’m talking about this season. I did consider his success during the 2016 playoff and last year’s regular season. If you watch him play right now, he’s not as good as his point total shows, expect him to decline even more as the season go on. He won’t reach 90 points again, last season was his peak.

he's still at a point per game. Better than his 2016 or 2017 seasons.

Phil Kessel is a guy that can win you a hockey game on any shift even if he's having an otherwise bad game. He's just really really good. You almost never trade a guy like him and come out ahead, at least in the short term.

And people said that same shit about him not being as good as his totals show his whole career. It's BS because he keeps doing it every year. He has had stretches where he's looking like this his whole career and every time he's come out of it. And every time he has people saying he's no good, he's on the decline, and every time they look silly.

Some day he'll really decline. Maybe this is the one. But he's clearly worth giving some time to. We just let Bryan Rust work through his shit, we can do the same for Phil Kessel.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

I think you misread my post, I said he doesn’t bring anything special ANYMORE. So I’m talking about this season. I did consider his success during the 2016 playoff and last year’s regular season. If you watch him play right now, he’s not as good as his point total shows, expect him to decline even more as the season go on. He won’t reach 90 points again, last season was his peak.

For 6.8m cap, he doesn't need to score 90 to be a bargain. Look at the other guys who just got deals making more.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It’s been a long time that I want to see Kessel out of Pittsburgh. He doesn’t bring anything special to the table anymore. Yes he’s a good playmaker with a good shot, but that’s about it. He doesn’t bring energy, he’s lazy, soft defensively and it’s only gonna get worse from then on. There’s a lot of young players that could bring what Kessel does with even more drive. Phil did pretty good for the time he was on the team but now it’s time to move on. He peaked last year during the season and had a solid playoff run in 2016. That’s the most he had to offer and that’s good enough for me.

JR should make a package deal involving Kessel, Brassard and Maatta and try to bring some decent, young and fast players, so we can have more depth. Playing Kessel on the 3rd line with an ineffective center like Brassard won’t make him any favor, so trade him before his value goes down.

Kessel is 11th in the league in regular season scoring since '16-'17:

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Kessel makes 6.8 mil per. Starting next year (with Kucherov's extension) the average cap hit of the players above him is 8.9 mil, and that's including MacKinnon and Marchand's sweetheart deals bringing down the average. Ovechkin has a grand total of one more point than Kessel over that span.

Kessel is also 2nd in playoff scoring over the last 3 playoffs, behind only Crosby:

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

This is not a player you look to move unless you get something really special in return.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Kessel is 11th in the league in regular season scoring since '16-'17:

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

Kessel makes 6.8 mil per. Starting next year (with Kucherov's extension) the average cap hit of the players above him is 8.9 mil, and that's including MacKinnon and Marchand's sweetheart deals bringing down the average. Ovechkin has a grand total of one more point than Kessel over that span.

Kessel is also 2nd in playoff scoring over the last 3 playoffs, behind only Crosby:

Player Season Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

This is not a player you look to move unless you get something really special in return.

Exactly. The only way you entertain trading Kessel is in a big trade of one impact player for another. Something like the Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones deal.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Horvat was drafted in the summer of 2013.

2013-14
2014-15 68 GP 25 pts
2015-16 82 GP 40 pts

It was technically three seasons. Having a player that can step in in a year and put up 25 pts and play a sound defensive game in the bottom four in a year is huge.

I said "score more than 40 points". Honestly, if you're giving up a Kessel, a 40 point player isn't shit. The guy scored 92 points last year and is still over a P/G this year.

So he’d hopefully be an impact 2C when Sid was 35. Giving us another four years of contention if Sid stays healthy and on pace that we imagine. Basically, the San Jose model. They packaged picks acquired by moving players together to move up and take Couts which extended their window

Also, I’d hope for a Patches like return. A 30-50 pt winger, and a pick / prospect like Suzuki.

Right...hopefully.

So if absolutely everything breaks right (how many Horvats do you think there have been over the last few years? You're talking like it's an inevitability when it's more like a lotto win) we get a very good two-way center in a few years, and in the meantime we've deep-sixed our contender status.

No thanks. I hate to keep harping on this, but didn't the Guentzel for Bennett fiasco suggest that maybe a little discretion is in order when talking about trading an established productive winger for a magic bean?

We're not Montreal. We're a contender, they were a lotto team last year. A move that makes sense for them doesn't necessarily make sense for us - not to mention, Patches was coming off a terrible season, and Kessel's coming off a career-high.

 

[Gurglesons]

I said "score more than 40 points". Honestly, if you're giving up a Kessel, a 40 point player isn't ****. The guy scored 92 points last year and is still over a P/G this year.



Right...hopefully.

So if absolutely everything breaks right (how many Horvats do you think there have been over the last few years? You're talking like it's an inevitability when it's more like a lotto win) we get a very good two-way center in a few years, and in the meantime we've deep-sixed our contender status.

No thanks. I hate to keep harping on this, but didn't the Guentzel for Bennett fiasco suggest that maybe a little discretion is in order when talking about trading an established productive winger for a magic bean?

We're not Montreal. We're a contender, they were a lotto team last year. A move that makes sense for them doesn't necessarily make sense for us - not to mention, Patches was coming off a terrible season, and Kessel's coming off a career-high.

When the cap crunch hits next year we have to start moving people out. Age will also need to start be moving out. Kessel has the most value.

Also, technically that trade was Jake for Sam and their 1st. So Bennett and Valkimaki. If you don’t follow the Flames he’s a great young D in their line-up who many Flames consider their top prospect. But, whatevs.

We’d likely have Sheary, Kessel, Simon, Sprong, Rust, Hornqvist, and Hagelin or whoever if we move Jake at wing adding Bennett who is on the top line in Calgary and a stud D prospect. Who knows how that goes moving forward.

 

[Clare2904]

So, what happens if Sully ever scratches Phil?

For all the rumours of a rift Sully has never done it, even when he would clearly be justified.

 

[BrookswasHere44]

Kessel didn't play a lot in the 3rd period of a 3-0 game because a defensively responsible line was put out there?

What's wrong with that? This isn't an article, it's a blog and it's lazy

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

When the cap crunch hits next year we have to start moving people out. Age will also need to start be moving out. Kessel has the most value.

Also, technically that trade was Jake for Sam and their 1st. So Bennett and Valkimaki. If you don’t follow the Flames he’s a great young D in their line-up who many Flames consider their top prospect. But, whatevs.

We’d likely have Sheary, Kessel, Simon, Sprong, Rust, Hornqvist, and Hagelin or whoever if we move Jake at wing adding Bennett who is on the top line in Calgary and a stud D prospect. Who knows how that goes moving forward.

Guentzel's a 24 year old who works better with Sid than any winger we've ever had, is arguably the clutchest player in the league, and currently on pace for 34 goals and 75 points. Bennett's on pace for 14 goals and 34 points, and Valimaki's a scratch ticket with 2 points in 22 games.

If we're still defending that proposal we don't have much of a shared reality to work with. It would make us a much worse team right now and for the forseeable future, which is exactly what the proposed Kessel deal would do.

When it's time for the cap crunch, Kessel shouldn't be moved unless he gets a great return. He's a bargain for what he brings. We have a lot of other players who aren't worth their dough who should get thrown overboard before Phil.

 

[ColePens]

I'm actually all for "resting" or strategically using Kessel in games which we lead 3-0. Keep him short on minutes. Put him on o-zone faceoffs only. Keep those legs as fresh as you can. We don't have many games we are up 3-0 in the 3rd with a team who looks like utter shit. I'm happy he only played a minute.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

Kessel didn't play a lot in the 3rd period of a 3-0 game because a defensively responsible was put out there?

What's wrong with that? This isn't an article, it's a blog and it's lazy

Its that a big part of it? Probably.

But ask yourself this. No matter how big a lead, do you ever remember Kessel being used this way before.

There definetly seems to be some level of frustration or mistrust there.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Not playing your worst defensive forward when your up 3-0 in the third seems like a pretty good coaching move to me.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Its that a big part of it? Probably.

But ask yourself this. No matter how big a lead, do you ever remember Kessel being used this way before.

There definetly seems to be some level of frustration or mistrust there.

It’s a one off thing though. Kessel’s minutes even going back to last season are quite varied game by game. He never went 11 mins low but there were lots of 14/15 min games and obviously with a bunch of 20 minute games too.

His ATOI this season is exactly his career average at 18:17 (which is higher than the 16/17 season).

I’m sure Phil’s style/approach to the game isn’t Sully’s favourite but he produces so he becomes a part of the game plan

 

[ChaosAgent]

And if you get a Derrick Pouliot? Then what? We traded a 90 pt player for a risk? I'd rather go with the devil I know.

There's no rule that says that if you acquire futures in 1 trade, that you can't use those futures or others that you already had to trade for a win-now type player (cough *PMD*).

I get the Kessel point production but we need to recognize that this guy is a badly, badly flawed player in a lot of ways (defense, board play, receiving passes cleanly, slap shot). He's always walking a fine line between having his considerable negatives outweigh his considerable positives (amazing wrister, surprisingly great playmaking instincts, speed through the NZ). Even his vaunted role on the PP; last year was great but this year we're like in 10th place where we often are. Yeah, he accumulates points on it but it would be nice if we had a RHS that could actually one-time a puck, or who didn't struggle so badly in possessing the puck during zone entry.

Another thing is where he plays 5-on-5. Kessel-Malkin is a chance-generation machine for the other team at this point and must be separated at all costs. Him and Brassard never worked and Sid would prefer to play with skilled grinders. That leaves Sheahan, which...blech. When we babysat him with 2 smart, tough, defensively-sound players (Hagelin, Bonino), they made up for his shortcomings and let him shine.

I guess my overall point is that I think Kessel's value around the league is probably wildly different across various front offices. He inspires such strong opinions for and against that I have to believe a couple of Kessel-admirers are out there. If all they are willing to trade is a 1st and 2 3rds, fine! Again, there's no rule against using those assets or others to bring in a PMD later.