Sportsnet: Kessel confident of Leafs avoiding tailspin

[Gary Nylund]

Here is a perfect example of that.

Take a sample of the Leafs season 13 games between Nov21 - Dec 12th. Leafs went 3-9-1 .. However the 3 wins and SO loss were a result of;

Sat, Nov 23 vs Washington Win 2-1 SO Reimer SV%: 0.980 Shots: 28-50
Wed, Nov 27 @ Pittsburgh SOL 6-5 SO Bernier Shots: 24-48
Thu, Dec 5 vs Dallas Win 3-2 OT Bernier SV% 0.960 Shots:24-50
Sat, Dec 7 @ Ottawa Win 4-3 SO Reimer SV%: 0.940 Shots 31-50

Leafs gave up 50 shots 3 times and won all 3 games getting badly outplayed based on .940 - .980 sv% by Bernier/Riemer and in their SOL to Pitts they gave up 48 shots with a shot differential of 24 in the game.

The team got badly outshot 198 to 107 but recorded 7 of a possible 8 points on unsustainable goaltending sv%. They could have lost all 13 games straight and the collapse would have happened far before the end of the season if not for what could best be described as luck or good fortune. But the team was playing very poorly well before the season ending collapse.

Yup. This team was a contender for all-time bad defensively. I wasn't happy even the first dozen games of the year when we played like crap but were winning. So many were saying but we won, the goalie is part of the team too blah blah blah.

You don't go far when the team outside of the goalie is playing like a dumpster file. I'm amazed the collapse didn't come earlier.

 

[Tak7]

Yup. This team was a contender for all-time bad defensively. I wasn't happy even the first dozen games of the year when we played like crap but were winning. So many were saying but we won, the goalie is part of the team too blah blah blah.

You don't go far when the team outside of the goalie is playing like a dumpster file. I'm amazed the collapse didn't come earlier.

Many of us feared the collapse. I know lots within the analytics community around November / December kept on continuously saying that what the Leafs were doing was completely unsustainable.

It's worth noting that Carlyle and his "sleepless nights" and "nervous time in the coach's office", knew the same thing as well.

Which makes it even more mind boggling that they weren't able to correct it.

It wasn't a shock that the season unraveled. It WAS a shock at just how suddenly, and terribly, it did.

 

[King85Kong]

Many of us feared the collapse. I know lots within the analytics community around November / December kept on continuously saying that what the Leafs were doing was completely unsustainable.

It's worth noting that Carlyle and his "sleepless nights" and "nervous time in the coach's office", knew the same thing as well.

Which makes it even more mind boggling that they weren't able to correct it.

It wasn't a shock that the season unraveled. It WAS a shock at just how suddenly, and terribly, it did.

It really is true. People were calling it on this board, and others called them crazy, and rhat the stats are wrong we will keep winning. Boy did that blow up in their face. The stats were accurate, and was only a matter of time. We need to play better this year if we hope to make the playoffs and go a couple rounds.

 

[glue]

Many of us feared the collapse. I know lots within the analytics community around November / December kept on continuously saying that what the Leafs were doing was completely unsustainable.

It's worth noting that Carlyle and his "sleepless nights" and "nervous time in the coach's office", knew the same thing as well.

Which makes it even more mind boggling that they weren't able to correct it.

It wasn't a shock that the season unraveled. It WAS a shock at just how suddenly, and terribly, it did.

That sadly appears to be the leafs motto....how epic can we make this collapse..I think last year hurt the least though cause part of me already knew it was coming

 

[Mess]

That sadly appears to be the leafs motto....how epic can we make this collapse..I think last year hurt the least though cause part of me already knew it was coming

The outcome was inevitable it was only a matter of time. It could have gone south much earlier based on the teams poor play well before the collapse itself.

If the players were fooled into thinking it was only the last 15 games then they are naive, because management brought in nearly 1/2 a new forward crew and defense as a response to the entire season not just the last few games results.

 

[dimi78]

So you think that getting hemmed in your own zone 2/3rds of the game being out shot often 2-1 is a recipe for success?

Make all the lame excuses that you want, but the leafs terrible style of play caught up with them.

It's so ridiculous...
I'm trying to imagine the Hawks THOROUGHLY outplaying another team and winning, and then a leaf fans chiming in "excuse me... but this is not a successful way to play. You need to start hemming yourself in your own zone and getting out-shot 2-1. That's what REAL winners do. And then when your EXHAUSTED goalie eventually goes down for being ridiculously overworked, you have a pathetically lame excuse to fall back on".

It's just so embarrassing...

I just wish people would read this and then think Phanuef and the entire team as a matter of fact... Bernier wasn't the only one who was over worked...The way this team was structured play is what netted these results. They played the same way last year in the short season.

I understand your frustration just about every Leaf fan has it. Where I disagree is in the point of view that there's not a good team within these players as a group. From what I've seen these past 2 years not just this season is by far the worst coaching job in my 35 + years of watching the Leafs. That game that I bold in your post is Carlyle hockey. He was fired for that from Anaheim... Changes needed to be made but I can tell you this much you can bring freaking Team Canada to be the Leafs and even they would not fair much better with this game plan and micromanaged bench Carlyle deploys.

I'm not going to respond to this but in a way Leaf fans deserve this for siding with the media, especially Don Cherry when it came to Ron Wilson. The fans and the media a like fired Ron Wilson when he got just about as zero goaltending as anybody could get... You get what you ask for a defense 1st coach well how does playing defense for 70% of the TOI sound? You get what you ask for sometimes.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

Their starting goalie being injured is a "lame excuse"?

It really is just so embarrasing.

A starting goalie has never been injured in the history of the NHL. Jonathan Bernier was the first ever starting goalie to get injured. Ever. Look it up. Its a fact.

It so embarrassing. It really is.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

The outcome was inevitable it was only a matter of time. It could have gone south much earlier based on the teams poor play well before the collapse itself.

If the players were fooled into thinking it was only the last 15 games then they are naive, because management brought in nearly 1/2 a new forward crew and defense as a response to the entire season not just the last few games results.

They should have traded for a new backup like say....Jonathan Quick. Because if Bernier ever gets injured...might as well fold up and go home. A team cannot possibly win..keep their heads above water with a backup goalie.

Its never ever happened in the history of the NHL. A team cannot survive without their starting goalie. I don't even know why they should try.

 

[The Great Gazoo]

A starting goalie has never been injured in the history of the NHL. Jonathan Bernier was the first ever starting goalie to get injured. Ever. Look it up. Its a fact.

It so embarrassing. It really is.

And when it happens, it's a good excuse to why a team struggles, and loses more than they win. Hopefully this year if it happens, they can overcome it. That's partly why you keep Reimer, and mostly why they spent a lot of their cap this summer improving the depth of the roster on D, and in the bottom six.

 

[theIceWookie]

I see this being said a lot by both players and fans:



And I don't like it at all. We were getting badly outplayed pretty much all season long, and were managing to scrape out wins against the odds. It wasn't just a "bad stretch," it was the good luck running out for a fairly bad team. We played without the puck, in our own zone, all season long - if anything we were lucky to do decently for as long as we did without collapsing.

The logic in Kessel's quote is basically saying "we don't need to change, we were a good team last year who just got unlucky! Things will get better by themselves!" In reality, we were a weak team, terrible at puck possession, that needs to make serious changes to be a good playoff team.

In reality we were a team without depth. We have the star players but we never had the depth. Do you honestly think it's a coincidence that our star players all dropped off around the same time? Yeah it's not.

The added depth this year is a good thing. Friedman mentioned that management noticed this too and worked to change up the team to alleviate the heavy load it placed on it's stars.

 

[Mess]

In reality we were a team without depth. We have the star players but we never had the depth. Do you honestly think it's a coincidence that our star players all dropped off around the same time? Yeah it's not.

The added depth this year is a good thing. Friedman mentioned that management noticed this too and worked to change up the team to alleviate the heavy load it placed on it's stars.

What depth?

If you let NHLers Bolland, Kulemin, Raymond, McClement walk and replace them with Santorelli, Booth, Winnik and Komarov your depth hasn't improved.

If you had Bodie, Smith, Holland and Ashton last year and you have them this year that is the same not different.

Replacing Gunnarsson, Gleason and Ranger with Polak and Robidas doesn't increase depth.

Is Kontiola the career KHLer that is about to turn 30 the depth difference maker or 26 year old returning Frattin who put up 7 points last year?

 

[The Great Gazoo]

The changes that were made eliminated spots for Orr and McLaren. That alone makes the team better.

Replacing Gunnarsson, Gleason and Ranger with Polak and Robidas doesn't increase depth.

HAHAHAHAHAHA, what?!

 

[Morbo]

A starting goalie has never been injured in the history of the NHL. Jonathan Bernier was the first ever starting goalie to get injured. Ever. Look it up. Its a fact.

It so embarrassing. It really is.

what are you talking about? who said that?

 

[hockeyfanz*]

And when it happens, it's a good excuse to why a team struggles, and loses more than they win. Hopefully this year if it happens, they can overcome it. That's partly why you keep Reimer, and mostly why they spent a lot of their cap this summer improving the depth of the roster on D, and in the bottom six.

Maybe if you are relying on your starting goalie to win you hockey games every night..then you are not a good team? The Leafs were winning when Bernier was posting .940+ SV %....thats not realistic over the course of a season.

Reimer played last season at a very respectable .911 clip. To suggest that this is an incompetent backup goalie is ridiculous.

Of course when your team allows 40 plus shots on a regular basis..it stands to reason that the goalie will have to play exceptionally well in order for your team to stand a chance of winning. A respectable .911 on 40 shots is not good enough...amounts to only 36.4 saves....or 3.6 goals...

The Leafs scored 231 GF or an avg of...2.8 Goals per game.... As you can see not good enough to win on most nights.

 

[Morbo]

.911 is not really "respectable" though, that isn't a very good save percentage at all.

 

[The Great Gazoo]

I never said Reimer was an incompetent back up goalie.

 

[Ace88*]

.911 is not really "respectable" though, that isn't a very good save percentage at all.

I suggest you look at save %'s around the league then.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

.911 is not really "respectable" though, that isn't a very good save percentage at all.

25th in the league for goalies who started at least 30 games. I'd say thats pretty respectable for a backup goalie.

Are you serious?

As good as Enroth/Hiller/Anderson..

Better than..

Howard/Bryzgalov/Budaj/Gustavsson/Brodeur/Backstrom/Nabokov/Ward/Pavelec

 

[Morbo]

Meh, take a closer look at at your "better than" list. Brodeur? Pavelec? Ward? Come on.

 

[The Great Gazoo]

.911 is fine for a backup. If you're relying on that from your starter, you're in trouble. Reimer was injured down the stretch, that was reasonably obvious. And when Bernier came back, I would suggest it was too soon. Both goalies struggled due to health reasons. It shouldn't be discounted as part of the reason the team went into the tailspin it did.

 

[Daisy Jane]

.911 is fine for a backup. If you're relying on that from your starter, you're in trouble. Reimer was injured down the stretch, that was reasonably obvious. And when Bernier came back, I would suggest it was too soon. Both goalies struggled due to health reasons. It shouldn't be discounted as part of the reason the team went into the tailspin it did.

Reimer was obviously injured?

 

[The Great Gazoo]

Reimer was obviously injured?

Got conked in the LA game he replaced Bernier in. It wasn't confirmed, but it was pretty noticeable imo.

 

[Faltorvo]

the final tally at seasons end is all that counts, did you win the cup or not, if you won it luck played a huge part in it, if you didn't win it, your luck just ran out somewhere whether it be a bounce or an injury.

just bury the godamned past already, it's gone and reliving it is, is just not smart(to put a positive spin on it), n'est ce pas!

I'm glad that Phil who is as dour and shy a guy as seems to play in the league can muster enough positivity to not dwell on the kind of non-sense that lives on and on, and on and friggin on. and on in LeafLand

We all saw the same thing last season we all had to go through the same disappointment, the managemnt saw it too apparently and decided to do something about it other then whining, pissing and moaning. They have willfully overhauled the roster for the second time in 5 years making the bottom 6 a more offensively dangerous and better skating bunch and adding sorely needed depth, which was the centre of the majority of the teams problems last year.

Sport like time moves forward, moaning and whining about the past does not change the reality of that past but only leads to stagnation and more failure, like a self fulfilling prophecy.

Positivity should not be mistaken for pollyannaism, positivity exists in a far brighter world then the negativity some seem to revel in

wait ummmmmmm,whattt?

how do you know we brought in better players than what we let loose without looking into the past and comparing them?

I just ummmm,what?

 

[therealkoho]

wait ummmmmmm,whattt?

how do you know we brought in better players than what we let loose without looking into the past and comparing them?

I just ummmm,what?

is what I said

They have willfully overhauled the roster for the second time in 5 years making the bottom 6 a more offensively dangerous and better skating bunch and adding sorely needed depth, which was the centre of the majority of the teams problems last year.

Bolland didn't play enough

McClement for all the love he got couldn't shoot his way out of a wet paper-bag and has ZERO imagination when it comes to offense which when Bozak and Bolland were both out he needed to step up and he did not. He really isn't exactly an NHL elite level skater either, and his 4th line replacement Jerrod Smithson was a little less of the same package

Holland was too green last year to be effective every shift, but his replacement the Peter Holland who got major Marlie playoff minutes in all situations will be a much more assertive, more comfortable and confident player

Mason Raymond had to be told who played net that night as he was never in his own end long enough to figure it out, but yeah he popped some goals

Santorelli has always been known as a very good playmaker and under Torterella become a capable 2 way guy and was solid on Kesler's RW, I'm sure with his wheels and puck handling abilities he and Kadri will get along just fine.

Booth has shown a very above average skill set and until Richards blind sided him a few years back was on the cusp of becoming a bona fide star in the league, he has since been enigmatic somewhat in Vancouver, but looked like the real deal in his last 20 or so games when he played significant minutes

Danny Winnick was a key guy for a pretty good Ducks team playing PP #1 and doing a solid job as a 3rd line winger, he easily replaces McClement.

Leo Komarov and Petri Kontiola were both excellent as 2/3rds of the 2nd line of the Bronze medal Finnish Olympic team, it's #1 PK duo, playing against the best players in the world, they also both led their respective KHL teams in scoring. NHL unproven? Yep for sure, but nice upgrade over Smithson/Carter/McLaren/Orr(54 games dressed???) none of whom are very capable AHL scorers, let alone the NHL

 

[Disgruntled Observer*]

And when it happens, it's a good excuse to why a team struggles, and loses more than they win. Hopefully this year if it happens, they can overcome it. That's partly why you keep Reimer, and mostly why they spent a lot of their cap this summer improving the depth of the roster on D, and in the bottom six.

Only 15 goalies played more games than Bernier. Half the starting goalies in the league. He played 55 games, and only EIGHT goalies in the entire freaking league played 60+.
In fact, 55 games is almost standard for a starting goalie. Maybe just a little shy of standard.

So let's not pretend that Bernier was out most of the season.
If a team can't lose their starter for a couple of weeks without the wheels COMPLETELY falling off, then it's a flaw in the OVERALL TEAM!!!!!