Prospect Info: Kasper vs Nazar

[haulinbass]

Can't argue with that, his puck decisions aren't the best. Some of it is on him, some on his linemates that always seen to be one step behind and not creating a passing lane. What if he were to play with a smarter and faster winger like Raymond?

Definitely a risk there, but once you get to pick #8, every prospect is going to have at least one flaw.

I definitely think the right team drafting and having the right situation could have a huge impact on how things go. Obviously thats the case for almost all players to atleast some extent, But I think more so for a guy like him.

Savoie is a guy that could burn ya real quick betting against him with his talent level. But regardless, just not high on his center chances in NHL which has a lot to do with his size. There are certain types of players I'm comfortable endorsing positively, there is certain types of guys I'm comfortable endorsing negatively, and theres certain players that fall into that (avoid because I can't draw any comfortable conclusion) and Savoie is that guy for me. I would need a lot more shift-by-shift footage on Savoie to better understand his decision making. It could have a lot to do with simple adjustment factors or he could just be one of those guys that don't have the capacity to think the game quick enough. If that's the case the issues will likely only worsen at higher levels.

What do you mean flaws at #8? Yzermans going to find some guy ranked 67th none of us have talked about and hes going to be the next Patrice Bergeron. So I don't even know why we are talking about all of these guys, we aren't drafting any of them. Lol

 

[Frk It]

This is a list of the top 50 scoring centers in the NHL from the 2021-2022 season. In order to make this list atleast 200 draws had to be taken.

1. Connor McDavid (C) - 6'1
2. Leon Draisaitl (C/W) - 6'2
3. Auston Matthews (C) - 6'3
4. Steven Stamkos (C/W) - 6'1
5. J.T. Miller (C/W) - 6'1
6. Mikko Rantanen (W/C) - 6'4
7. Aleksander Barkov (C) - 6'3
8. Nathan MacKinnon (C/RW) - 6'
9. Nazem Kadri (C) - 6'
10. Matt Duchene (C/RW) - 5'11
11. Filip Forsberg (W/C) - 6'2
12. Sidney Crosby (C) - 5'11
13. Elias Lindholm (C) - 6'
14. Sam Reinhart (C/RW) - 6'2
15. Sebastian Aho (C/LW) - 6'
16. Mika Zibanejad (C) - 6'2
17. Joe Pavelski (C/RW) - 5'11
18. Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C) - 6'1
19. Robert Thomas (C/RW) - 6'
20. John Tavares (C) - 6'1
21. Roope Hintz (LW/C) - 6'3
22. Mark Scheifele (C) - 6'3
23. Dylan Larkin (C) - 6'1
24. Tage Thompson (W/C) - 6'7
25. Elias Pettersson (C/W) - 6'2
26. Anze Kopitar (C) - 6'4
27. Ryan Hartman (C/RW) - 6'
28. Patrice Bergeron (C) - 6'1
29. Claude Giroux (C/W) - 5'11
30. Tomas Hertl (C/LW) - 6'3
31. Chandler Stephenson (C/LW) - 5'11
32. Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10
33.Jeff Skinner (LW/C) - 5'11
34. Ryan Johansen (C) - 6'3
35. Trevor Zegras (C) - 6'
36. Nick Suzuki (C) - 5'11
37. Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW) - 6'3
38. Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW) - 6'1
39. Nico Hischier (C) - 6'1
40. Brock Nelson (C) - 6'3
41. Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) - 6'
42. Mathew Barzal (C) - 6'1
43. Brayden Point (C) - 5'10"
44. Brayden Schenn (C/W) - 6'1
45. Tim Stützle (C/LW) - 6'
46. Ryan O'Reilly (C) - 6'1"
47. Jack Hughes (C) - 5'11
48. Logan Couture (C) - 6'1
49. Josh Norris (C) - 6'2
50. Ryan Strome (C/RW) - 6'2

2 players 5'10 or shorter made this list (Brayden Point (C) - 5'10") and (Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10)

8 players are 5'11

A total of 10 out of 50 players are under the size of 6'

For those of you who are drafting Nazar expecting to get a center, I would temper your expectations. There has NEVER been a lack of prospects available in the 1st round who are undersized, play center in lower level leagues and have good puck carrying abilities. There is a reason however, as to why only 2 players 5'10 and under are in the top 50 of NHL centers.

In most cases, there is a significant size difference in someone who is 5'10 to even 5'11. I would guesstimate roughly 8-10lbs difference on average of what that player is capable of bulking up to without losing playing ability.

Obviously, some smaller guys can have more robust joint and bone structure allowing them to pack on a little more weight, but those are outliers not the norm.

For those of you not as familiar following prospects and player development. I ask you to question why a player like Patrick Kane doesn't player center in the NHL. It certainly is NOT because he isn't capable of carrying the puck down the ice and making smart decisions with the puck.

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

Not sure where you got your stats from, but I don’t think Forsberg has taken 200 draws over his entire career.

 

[haulinbass]

Not sure where you got your stats from, but I don’t think Forsberg has taken 200 draws over his entire career.

No he hasn't taken that many, 63 over his career.

Sorry bro, made the list as fast as I could. Was just copy pasting and quickly verifying. Regardless of a couple errors, it doesn't serve its intended purpose any less effectively! I already knew what the results were going to look like, just trying to help some of the guys on Wings board see some different perspective when trying to analyze our 8th pick.

 

[Frk It]

No he hasn't taken that many, 63 over his career.

Sorry bro, made the list as fast as I could. Was just copy pasting and quickly verifying. Regardless of a couple errors, it doesn't serve its intended purpose any less effectively! I already knew what the results were going to look like, just trying to help some of the guys on Wings board see some different perspective when trying to analyze our 8th pick.

It’s all good, I think the rest are all centers that probably took that many draws or more… So no sweat.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

I am biased but if we're looking at pedigree, the University of Michigan is miles ahead of Rogle in terms of its developmental output. I have a lot of respect for the program that the Abbott brothers have put together there, and I understand why the board is drawn to Rogle based on the years that Seider and Wallinder had there respectively.

But at the end of the day, U of M is churning out NHL talent at a much better clip than Rogle is. Michigan's alumni drafted in the first round the past ten years or so have, for the most part, met or exceeded their draft day expectations (Trouba, Larkin, Werenski, Connor, Norris, Pacioretty, Hughes). The notion of yoinking a kid from Mt. Clemens over to Angelholm to satisfy this board's Europhilia complex is something I'm sure that no NHL executive would seriously consider, barring another pandemic or maybe something like a supervolcano event.

This is one of the best comments I’ve ever seen on this board, sometimes these posters need to have reality brought back to them lmao.

kasper is now sitting at 7 in the final black book rankings, which is my favorite publication. I think the things I like to see best about kasper is his IQ and compete level, which are both invaluable assets in a player. Lambert doesn’t have the IQ imo, savoie doesn’t have the size(I’d still love him as the pick, and nazar I’ve read can disappear in certain games. Kasper May be a comfortable pick to some but I really think there’s a lot to work with there.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This is one of the best comments I’ve ever seen on this board, sometimes these posters need to have reality brought back to them lmao.

kasper is now sitting at 7 in the final black book rankings, which is my favorite publication. I think the things I like to see best about kasper is his IQ and compete level, which are both invaluable assets in a player. Lambert doesn’t have the IQ imo, savoie doesn’t have the size(I’d still love him as the pick, and nazar I’ve read can disappear in certain games. Kasper May be a comfortable pick to some but I really think there’s a lot to work with there.

That's why I've been pounding the drum for this kid since the start of the season. Great IQ, great work ethic and a strong set of fundamental skills (skating, stickhandling, passing) when put together usually gets you a player equal to or better than the sum of their parts.

 

[NickH8]

Changing my vote to Kasper after reading the black book

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Draft this mans.



Film Room: Marco Kasper is a menace - EP Rinkside

In the last 20 years, just 20 under-18 forwards have suited up for 30 or more SHL regular-season contests. Half of those players were able to hit double-digit point totals. Only five of them were able to produce more than Rögle forward Marco Kasper.

 

[MBH]

My argument for Kasper: It seems like every time we read about a prospect that's "safe" with a high-floor-low-ceiling they turn out better than expectations.

Larkin was thought of as a future 2nd/3rd line guy in his draft year and is a decent 1st line talent.
Anton Lundell was a top 5 rookie this past season and looks like he's going to make Sam Bennett completely expendable in Florida.
Joel Eriksson-Ek was a "low ceiling" guy and he turned into a Selke caliber 2nd/3rd line forward. The same could be said of Danault and Pageau.
Ryan Kesler was one of those guys "high floor low ceiling" types in his draft year but turned into a phenomenal 2nd line shutdown center.
Fyodor Svechkov had a really good D+1 in Russia and looks to be a future top 6 guy.
Mason McTavish was probably the best player in the OHL last year, Johnston's inflated stats be damned. He looks like a for sure top line talent.
Matt Beniers also looked phenomenal last year in Michigan, at the Olympics, the WC and in his 10 games with Seattle.

I don't know.
Riley Sheahan was a high-floor low-ceiling guy.
Rasmussen - same thing.
Famously, Doug Wickenheiser over Denis Savard.

So I don't think there's some magic, easy thing here that the entire hockey world has missed.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't know.
Riley Sheahan was a high-floor low-ceiling guy.
Rasmussen - same thing.
Famously, Doug Wickenheiser over Denis Savard.

So I don't think there's some magic, easy thing here that the entire hockey world has missed.

Riley Sheahan and Rasmussen are your arguments? Seriously?
There was enough out about Rasmussen's lack of 5V5 production and skating/stability issues to show it wasn't a great pick. Sheahan was given a late 1st round ranking as a defense-first forward with a heavy shot but only average skating. Kasper is twice the skater either of these guys are presently.

And I don't remember Wickenheiser in his draft year. That was way before my time but he was ranked #1 in the dark ages of scouting. That's not a great argument considering there isn't much data available for comparison.

 

[jfrank21]

Draft this mans.



Film Room: Marco Kasper is a menace - EP Rinkside

Im extremely concerned that Ottawa takes him at 7. There were rumblings that their euro scouts are enamoured with him. And I fully expect my personal favorite guy to get poached before our pick just like the past few drafts. Stutzle....McTavish....Kasper.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Im extremely concerned that Ottawa takes him at 7. There were rumblings that their euro scouts are enamoured with him. And I fully expect my personal favorite guy to get poached before our pick just like the past few drafts. Stutzle....McTavish....Kasper.

Yeah, same. I was bummed when both Stutzle and McTavish went 3rd overall. I'm glad that I was vindicated by them becoming really good players, but I just want the Wings to draft one of the players I invest so much time in reading and watching during their draft year, damnit.

I'm fine with Nazar or Gauthier. I'm less fine with Savoie but can live with it. After these 3 I'm not really high on anyone else in the early 1st and would look to trade back for volume, or degrade Detroit's pick for a mid 1st and an actual player.

 

[MBH]

Riley Sheahan and Rasmussen are your arguments? Seriously?
There was enough out about Rasmussen's lack of 5V5 production and skating/stability issues to show it wasn't a great pick. Sheahan was given a late 1st round ranking as a defense-first forward with a heavy shot but only average skating. Kasper is twice the skater either of these guys are presently.

And I don't remember Wickenheiser in his draft year. That was way before my time but he was ranked #1 in the dark ages of scouting. That's not a great argument considering there isn't much data available for comparison.

Yes. Both guys were defended as "safe" picks.
So is that much a surprise?
I'm sure I could run through other teams' picks and find safe picks that flopped.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yes. Both guys were defended as "safe" picks.
So is that much a surprise?
I'm sure I could run through other teams' picks and find safe picks that flopped.

And you can also find "high ceiling" picks that were total flops as well. It's an unsound argument.

 

[MBH]

And you can also find "high ceiling" picks that were total flops as well. It's an unsound argument.

I'm not making an argument. You are. I'm pointing out the obvious flaw in yours.
I don't think there's any real evidence that safe picks are better picks.

 

[lilidk]

Whoud be nice draft combos Kasper + Ostlund, future Raymond linemates .

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

Kasper is tenacious AF, as the kids say. OK zoomers.

So was Darren Helm. And as much as I loved Helm, and even though we'll probably watch Helm hoist the cup one last time in a few days... I would NOT draft Darren Helm 8th overall.

And much like a typical 1 minute 5 second Darren Helm highlight, you'll note that in Kasper's, he does not score.

The parallels are eerie.

I'd draft Darren Helm 2 Electric Boogaloo 40th overall, maybe, but not 8th.

 

[lilidk]

Kasper is tenacious AF, as the kids say. OK zoomers.

So was Darren Helm. And as much as I loved Helm, and even though we'll probably watch Helm hoist the cup one last time in a few days... I would NOT draft Darren Helm 8th overall.

And much like a typical 1 minute 5 second Darren Helm highlight, you'll note that in Kasper's, he does not score.

The parallels are eerie.

I'd draft Darren Helm 2 Electric Boogaloo 40th overall, maybe, but not 8th.

Why did he last till 5th round if he was so good. Kasper playing in SHL and dominated there . Kasper closer more to Stutzle than to Helm

 

[Gniwder]

Why did he last till 5th round if he was so good. Kasper playing in SHL and dominated there . Kasper closer more to Stutzle than to Helm

Helm was a bit of a late bloomer, he played Junior B and A (MJHL) his D-1 season, and only had 24 points in his draft season in the WHL. Apparently he was "short and skinny" in his own words. Someone really liked his speed because pretty much every forward drafted after him had more points.

As draft prospects they aren't comparable, but I think Pasta is talking about his NHL potential, not draft rating.

I would hope Kasper's potential is closer to Bergeron than Helm. Plus I want to point out that Raymond didn't put up a lot of points in the SHL either, and he's a winger not a center.

 

[Astyanax]

Nazar is also only 18. It's not crazy to think he could grow an inch or two in the next 3 or 4 years. Zetterberg was 5'9" or 5'10" when Detroit drafted him and he ended up around 6'0"ish.

It happens sometimes, but very rarely will a man in his upper teens add 2to 3 inches; weight yes, but no.

 

[jfrank21]

Kasper is tenacious AF, as the kids say. OK zoomers.

So was Darren Helm. And as much as I loved Helm, and even though we'll probably watch Helm hoist the cup one last time in a few days... I would NOT draft Darren Helm 8th overall.

And much like a typical 1 minute 5 second Darren Helm highlight, you'll note that in Kasper's, he does not score.

The parallels are eerie.

I'd draft Darren Helm 2 Electric Boogaloo 40th overall, maybe, but not 8th.

Tell me you havent watched any extended games/footage of Kasper without telling me.....Helm is not his comparable. At all. I get it, we all want a star at 8 overall, but if we only end up drafting a Ryan Kesler light, without the hip surgeries, would that really be a disappointing pick?

 

[jfrank21]

It happens sometimes, but very rarely will a man in his upper teens add 2to 3 inches; weight yes, but no.

It happens all the time. Quite a few of my shorter friends added an inch or two after graduating high school. And quite honestly, even if Frank doesnt actually grow an inch, I can guarantee that his NHL stat page will list him at 5'11 by the time he hits the league. It happens with all the shorter guys. So say he ends up actually filling out a little, and hits 195....is 5'11 195 really that tiny in the grand scheme of things? Some people act like he's only 5'8 165 right now...instead of his combine confirmed, solid 5'10 181.

 

[Vector Cereal]

This is a list of the top 50 scoring centers in the NHL from the 2021-2022 season. In order to make this list atleast 200 draws had to be taken.

1. Connor McDavid (C) - 6'1
2. Leon Draisaitl (C/W) - 6'2
3. Auston Matthews (C) - 6'3
4. Steven Stamkos (C/W) - 6'1
5. J.T. Miller (C/W) - 6'1
6. Mikko Rantanen (W/C) - 6'4
7. Aleksander Barkov (C) - 6'3
8. Nathan MacKinnon (C/RW) - 6'
9. Nazem Kadri (C) - 6'
10. Matt Duchene (C/RW) - 5'11
11. Filip Forsberg (W/C) - 6'2
12. Sidney Crosby (C) - 5'11
13. Elias Lindholm (C) - 6'
14. Sam Reinhart (C/RW) - 6'2
15. Sebastian Aho (C/LW) - 6'
16. Mika Zibanejad (C) - 6'2
17. Joe Pavelski (C/RW) - 5'11
18. Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C) - 6'1
19. Robert Thomas (C/RW) - 6'
20. John Tavares (C) - 6'1
21. Roope Hintz (LW/C) - 6'3
22. Mark Scheifele (C) - 6'3
23. Dylan Larkin (C) - 6'1
24. Tage Thompson (W/C) - 6'7
25. Elias Pettersson (C/W) - 6'2
26. Anze Kopitar (C) - 6'4
27. Ryan Hartman (C/RW) - 6'
28. Patrice Bergeron (C) - 6'1
29. Claude Giroux (C/W) - 5'11
30. Tomas Hertl (C/LW) - 6'3
31. Chandler Stephenson (C/LW) - 5'11
32. Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10
33.Jeff Skinner (LW/C) - 5'11
34. Ryan Johansen (C) - 6'3
35. Trevor Zegras (C) - 6'
36. Nick Suzuki (C) - 5'11
37. Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW) - 6'3
38. Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW) - 6'1
39. Nico Hischier (C) - 6'1
40. Brock Nelson (C) - 6'3
41. Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) - 6'
42. Mathew Barzal (C) - 6'1
43. Brayden Point (C) - 5'10"
44. Brayden Schenn (C/W) - 6'1
45. Tim Stützle (C/LW) - 6'
46. Ryan O'Reilly (C) - 6'1"
47. Jack Hughes (C) - 5'11
48. Logan Couture (C) - 6'1
49. Josh Norris (C) - 6'2
50. Ryan Strome (C/RW) - 6'2

2 players 5'10 or shorter made this list (Brayden Point (C) - 5'10") and (Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10)

8 players are 5'11

A total of 10 out of 50 players are under the size of 6'

For those of you who are drafting Nazar expecting to get a center, I would temper your expectations. There has NEVER been a lack of prospects available in the 1st round who are undersized, play center in lower level leagues and have good puck carrying abilities. There is a reason however, as to why only 2 players 5'10 and under are in the top 50 of NHL centers.

In most cases, there is a significant size difference in someone who is 5'10 to even 5'11. I would guesstimate roughly 8-10lbs difference on average of what that player is capable of bulking up to without losing playing ability.

Obviously, some smaller guys can have more robust joint and bone structure allowing them to pack on a little more weight, but those are outliers not the norm.

For those of you not as familiar following prospects and player development. I ask you to question why a player like Patrick Kane doesn't player center in the NHL. It certainly is NOT because he isn't capable of carrying the puck down the ice and making smart decisions with the puck.

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

Just going off of this list and central scouting's listed heights at their respective draft day, I've got:
Barzal - 5'11
Aho - 5'11
Schmaltz - 5'11
Thomas - 5'11
Hartman 5'11
And Hughes was listed at 5'10.

So at least based on draft day, 15 (30%) of the top 50 centers were under 6'. The distribution of players is not even of course, but assuming it was, you'd have say 30% 5'10-11, 30% 6'0-1, 30% 6'2-3, and the remaining 10% 6'4+. If anything there's an enrichment of under 6'0 (with the info we have on draft day) centers that end up in the top 50.

There's a safety element with bigger guys no doubt - if Savoie doesn't make a top 6, how easily does he shift to a 4th line role vs Gauthier? But I don't think height is nearly as big a factor as it's made out to be, especially with how the league is trending.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Kasper is tenacious AF, as the kids say. OK zoomers.

So was Darren Helm. And as much as I loved Helm, and even though we'll probably watch Helm hoist the cup one last time in a few days... I would NOT draft Darren Helm 8th overall.

And much like a typical 1 minute 5 second Darren Helm highlight, you'll note that in Kasper's, he does not score.

The parallels are eerie.

I'd draft Darren Helm 2 Electric Boogaloo 40th overall, maybe, but not 8th.

This is a bad take.

Like...realbad.

You're watching a 17-18 year old kid in a MEN'S PRO LEAGUE and complaining that he isn't scoring at will against MEN'S PRO LEAGUE PLAYERS. It was already mentioned that there have been exactly 5 first year draft eligible players in that same MEN'S PRO LEAGUE that have scored more than him in their draft years. Not to mention he holds the record for PPG in the postseason by a first year draft eligible.

 

[Astyanax]

It happens all the time. Quite a few of my shorter friends added an inch or two after graduating high school. And quite honestly, even if Frank doesnt actually grow an inch, I can guarantee that his NHL stat page will list him at 5'11 by the time he hits the league. It happens with all the shorter guys. So say he ends up actually filling out a little, and hits 195....is 5'11 195 really that tiny in the grand scheme of things? Some people act like he's only 5'8 165 right now...instead of his combine confirmed, solid 5'10 181.

Hey, I'm not anti-nazar. I love his game, but count on him growing 2 or 3 inches is unrealistic. If we pick him, great and I trust in the Stevie show, but not for him grow. Feel the same about savoie.