Prospect Info: Kasper vs Nazar

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

He is 100% committed to Michigan.

But his CHL rights are also held by the London Knights. Another powerhouse player developer… if he ever changes course.

You 100% do not want a player dropping out of college to play in Canadian juniors. Those guys are generally busts. I forget who posted it, but someone on the mains put up a list of players that went from NCAA hockey to CHL and it was a who's who of draft busts. (Probably soon to include Tyler Boucher)

 

[Gniwder]

A good college hockey program is as good a place to develop as anywhere else. I'd say it's tied if not better than Rogle/Frolunda. The issue with Swedish pro hockey is some of the mid to lower tier guys get left behind. If a guy like Niederbach played in the NCAA I think it could be better for him, hopefully he gets a good role in Rogle.

The issue with college vs juniors is that the kids wind up signing at an older age and the player has more leverage. Beniers wasn't eligible for a slide, and neither was Power.

As far as development though, I think it's better than juniors. The level of competition is higher for the top conferences.

You 100% do not want a player dropping out of college to play in Canadian juniors. Those guys are generally busts. I forget who posted it, but someone on the mains put up a list of players that went from NCAA hockey to CHL and it was a who's who of draft busts. (Probably soon to include Tyler Boucher)

ChoLOL.

My list is Savoie, Kasper then Nazar. I did not originally have Savoie only because I did not think he'll be available at 8, but now I think there's a small chance.

 

[NickH8]

I think Nazar has one of the highest ceilings in the draft. He's so manipulative with the puck on his stick and just creates offense. Him or Savoie would be perfect for us. Kasper is really only a guy I'd take if none of Nazar, Savoie, or Gauthier are available. He's starting to fall right outside guys I'd consider at 8 in my rankings.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Doesn't kind of depend on which one is available?

Odds are pretty good that both are available at pick number 8

 

[Holden Caufield]

You 100% do not want a player dropping out of college to play in Canadian juniors. Those guys are generally busts. I forget who posted it, but someone on the mains put up a list of players that went from NCAA hockey to CHL and it was a who's who of draft busts. (Probably soon to include Tyler Boucher)

Yeah, Usually somebody changes paths when they are not succeeding on their current path. So chances are they were already failing at college hockey and trying to revive their prospects. (Like Boucher)

But some prospects have ‘uncommitted’ and went the CHL route after the NHL draft. But before ever playing a game of college hockey. (Like Jon Carlson)

It’s rare, but there a couple reasons it could happen. I doubt that scenario has much or any Impact on their ‘bust rate’.

 

[Dotter]

Savoie is going to be the most skilled and BPA... and can play center.

I don't like small players, but I'll make an exception for this kid. He's going to be a very special player.

That said, highly doubtful he'll be available at #8. Maybe some GMs will shy away due to his size. Because if he was 2-inches taller, he'd go top 3 easily.

 

[Gniwder]

Yeah, Usually somebody changes paths when they are not succeeding on their current path. So chances are they were already failing at college hockey and trying to revive their prospects. (Like Boucher)

But some prospects have ‘uncommitted’ and went the CHL route after the NHL draft. But before ever playing a game of college hockey. (Like Jon Carlson)

It’s rare, but there a couple reasons it could happen. I doubt that scenario has much or any Impact on their ‘bust rate’.

John Carlson signed his ELC his draft year so he became ineligible for college hockey. That contract slid, but he still got his $87.5k signing bonus.

Guess he needed the money. Plus the Caps were thin on defense back then so he was projected to get promoted quickly, and he joined the Caps in his D+2 season.

Not quite the same as ChoLOL quitting college hockey, then heading back for a season of junior. For some unknown reason, Blash then decided to promote him to the NHL the following season, Huge mistake that I think negatively impacted his development.

 

[WaW]

I think the two are very close in terms of required development time + ceiling. The tiebreaker for me considering neither feels clearly ahead of the other in terms of who is BPA, is that Kasper is pretty clearly a center, while Nazar might end up becoming a winger. So I'd go Kasper.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yeah, Usually somebody changes paths when they are not succeeding on their current path. So chances are they were already failing at college hockey and trying to revive their prospects. (Like Boucher)

But some prospects have ‘uncommitted’ and went the CHL route after the NHL draft. But before ever playing a game of college hockey. (Like Jon Carlson)

It’s rare, but there a couple reasons it could happen. I doubt that scenario has much or any Impact on their ‘bust rate’.

I don't know what the success rate is for the guys that decommit. Is there a list somewhere?

Also UM has a phenomenal track record, especially in recent years. I think that Nazar is in a great spot to be a top line center on that team next season and would much rather see him playing against 18 to 24 year olds in college than 16 to 20 year olds in Canadian juniors.

Brisson, Bordeleau, Beniers, Duke, Johnson, Beecher all signed and left. (Duke probably signed 1 year too early) so there are plenty of spots up for grabs at UM.

 

[Holden Caufield]

I don't know what the success rate is for the guys that decommit. Is there a list somewhere?

Also UM has a phenomenal track record, especially in recent years. I think that Nazar is in a great spot to be a top line center on that team next season and would much rather see him playing against 18 to 24 year olds in college than 16 to 20 year olds in Canadian juniors.

Brisson, Bordeleau, Beniers, Duke, Johnson, Beecher all signed and left. (Duke probably signed 1 year too early) so there are plenty of spots up for grabs at UM.

I don’t think Nazar should decommit. Michigan will be as good of spot as any for him.

Just pointing out if he bails for some reason. His back up spot could be worse.

 

[CountMC]

My argument for Kasper: It seems like every time we read about a prospect that's "safe" with a high-floor-low-ceiling they turn out better than expectations.

Larkin was thought of as a future 2nd/3rd line guy in his draft year and is a decent 1st line talent.
Anton Lundell was a top 5 rookie this past season and looks like he's going to make Sam Bennett completely expendable in Florida.
Joel Eriksson-Ek was a "low ceiling" guy and he turned into a Selke caliber 2nd/3rd line forward. The same could be said of Danault and Pageau.
Ryan Kesler was one of those guys "high floor low ceiling" types in his draft year but turned into a phenomenal 2nd line shutdown center.
Fyodor Svechkov had a really good D+1 in Russia and looks to be a future top 6 guy.
Mason McTavish was probably the best player in the OHL last year, Johnston's inflated stats be damned. He looks like a for sure top line talent.
Matt Beniers also looked phenomenal last year in Michigan, at the Olympics, the WC and in his 10 games with Seattle.

So what I'm getting at is this; nobody really knows Kasper's ceiling and just because he looks like he could be a good 3rd liner doesn't mean that is all there is to his game. I don't know how high his ceiling is but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him exceed those 3rd line at best expectations like the players I listed above. Each of them plays (or played) with a ton of heart, grit, smarts and have non-stop motors.

The Rogle J20 team was not a very strong one but he scored better than a point per game there as the team's top center. The Austrian J20 team belongs in D1A but he was also there as the top center. On the Austrian men's team he was the top line LW and looked like he belonged.

His points per game on the season wasn't much lower than Lucas Raymond's in about the same amount of playing time per game, but he currently holds the record for playoff points per game amongst first year draft eligible players in the SHL. He had the highest corsi rating amongst forwards on his team that played the whole postseason, and he had 0.5ppg in the Champions Hockey League matches.

Even if Kasper only ends up as a 3rd line center then he's still incredibly valuable. Those guys play 16-18 minutes a night and still get around 40 points a season and help your team create mismatches and take a lot of defensive responsibility. A good 3rd line center is more valuable than a 2nd line winger.

EDIT: I'll also add that I'm a fan of Nazar who I think will be a solid scorer in the NHL.

100% to what I bolded. A very good 3rd line center who plays in all situations can be your 4th or 5th most valuable forward if you are contending. They are also way more difficult to acquire than a scoring winger.

When I think about Kasper I see a player who has already figured out how to successfully play in one of the best leagues in the world. The next thing he will likely do is figure out how to dominate there, then play in the NHL and then figure out how to be very successful in the NHL. He projects very well based on how he can figure out difficult situations. The offense will likely be there with him.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Neither.

Kasper is big enough to play center but it looks like his ceiling is the 3rd line. I know COVID messed up everyone's development, but that guy hasn't had a good year since 2019 and even then he wasn't setting the world on fire with his scoring.

Nazar appears to be the poor man's Savoie.

I'd rather have Savoie, or Gauthier, but they'll probably both be gone. But if they're both gone, that almost certainly means that Kemell, Geekie, and Lambert are all still there, and I'd take any one of those 3 over Kasper or Nazar.

Is this still going off the "way too early" rankings that were published a few days after the 2021 entry draft?

 

[HoweFan]

Nazar, Geekie, Savoie, Lambert, or Kasper? I’m easily swayed by almost every report I read. I’m probably leaning towards Savoie if he’s there but if Kasper is the choice I’m fine because nobody has likely scouted him more than us.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Nazar, Geekie, Savoie, Lambert, or Kasper? I’m easily swayed by almost every report I read. I’m probably leaning towards Savoie if he’s there but if Kasper is the choice I’m fine because nobody has likely scouted him more than us.

So here's snippets from the eliteprospects draft guide. The full reports are really thorough this year and it's worth the money.

I think they underrate Kasper's passing and puckhandling and Gauthier's shot and skating by about 0.5 points each but these are pretty good.
The scoring scale goes 1 to 9. 5 is at minimum league average now. A 3 or lower is not NHL caliber.

 

[NickH8]

So here's snippets from the eliteprospects draft guide. The full reports are really thorough this year and it's worth the money.

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I think they underrate Kasper's passing and puckhandling and Gauthier's shot and skating by about 0.5 points each but these are pretty good.
The scoring scale goes 1 to 9. 5 is at minimum league average now. A 3 or lower is not NHL caliber.

Swap Savoie to the bottom and that's how I'd rank them, Nazar, Gauthier, Kasper, Savoie.
I've read a little more into Savoie and I don't know if I like him more than those other 3, but he's still a top 15 pick in my book. People smarter than me question his sense, which makes you question how high you want to draft him. However, he is a case of sense does not equal vision as his vision for passing is very good. Basically he's best when his team already has possession in the o-zone and creating plays there, he's not going to be driving transitions at an above average rate.
Kasper appeals to me as the safe pick, he'll be a solid 2-way second line center in the NHL with good speed and physicality. I don't think he'll put up crazy points but he could carve out a Jordan Staal type of career where he pots 40 a year mostly just due to tilting the ice his teams way and playing effective hockey. Effectiveness is the name of his game, doing what it takes to help his team win. I think Gauthier brings similar things with more goal scoring though which puts him slightly above Kasper in my opinion.
And then you've got Nazar who I flip flop on, but his ceiling is high. He's a manipulative and speedy little guy. Unlike Savoie he will be a one man transition for you while also bringing the high end offensive abilities. The reason I flip flop on him is because in the spot our team is in a guy like Gauthier or Kasper who you can confidently project as a center and stabilizes the middle 6 long term is so attractive, and we've got Raymond who brings that game but better and Berggren who may be good enough to do it at a 2nd line rate.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Swap Savoie to the bottom and that's how I'd rank them, Nazar, Gauthier, Kasper, Savoie.
I've read a little more into Savoie and I don't know if I like him more than those other 3, but he's still a top 15 pick in my book. People smarter than me question his sense, which makes you question how high you want to draft him. However, he is a case of sense does not equal vision as his vision for passing is very good. Basically he's best when his team already has possession in the o-zone and creating plays there, he's not going to be driving transitions at an above average rate.
Kasper appeals to me as the safe pick, he'll be a solid 2-way second line center in the NHL with good speed and physicality. I don't think he'll put up crazy points but he could carve out a Jordan Staal type of career where he pots 40 a year mostly just due to tilting the ice his teams way and playing effective hockey. Effectiveness is the name of his game, doing what it takes to help his team win. I think Gauthier brings similar things with more goal scoring though which puts him slightly above Kasper in my opinion.
And then you've got Nazar who I flip flop on, but his ceiling is high. He's a manipulative and speedy little guy. Unlike Savoie he will be a one man transition for you while also bringing the high end offensive abilities. The reason I flip flop on him is because in the spot our team is in a guy like Gauthier or Kasper who you can confidently project as a center and stabilizes the middle 6 long term is so attractive, and we've got Raymond who brings that game but better and Berggren who may be good enough to do it at a 2nd line rate.

I think all 4 have what it takes to be successful NHLers. There are some question marks but Detroit has done much better the last 3 years at the draft than before.

Savoie may be better as a winger that runs your powerplay. That's great, but with Raymond that makes him a bit redundant. Will it be a 70+ point 1st line guy or as a 50 point 2nd liner? The more I read about Savoie the more I question if he's really the guy, but that could just be me getting cold feet.

Nazar probably does have the highest potential of them but is he going to reach that high end? He could become a Sebastian Aho or Brayden Point but he's more likely to become a Vincent Trocheck or a Nick Suzuki. All are good outcomes and I don't think there's a high bust probability.

Cutter Gauthier could become a guy that pots 30 a year either on wing or center and both outcomes would be great. Another guy that I don't think has a high bust probability. I think the worst you're getting is Josh Anderson 2.0 which is a 20 goal physical winger who plays up and down your lineup.

Kasper is an ultimate Swiss army knife like the guide says. He can play on any line and be effective. His top end is a mystery because we didn't really see him play much against his peer group but I wouldn't be surprised to see him become a really great, high motor #2 matchup center like Danault or Cirelli.

 

[haulinbass]

This is a list of the top 50 scoring centers in the NHL from the 2021-2022 season. In order to make this list atleast 200 draws had to be taken.

1. Connor McDavid (C) - 6'1
2. Leon Draisaitl (C/W) - 6'2
3. Auston Matthews (C) - 6'3
4. Steven Stamkos (C/W) - 6'1
5. J.T. Miller (C/W) - 6'1
6. Mikko Rantanen (W/C) - 6'4
7. Aleksander Barkov (C) - 6'3
8. Nathan MacKinnon (C/RW) - 6'
9. Nazem Kadri (C) - 6'
10. Matt Duchene (C/RW) - 5'11
11. Filip Forsberg (W/C) - 6'2
12. Sidney Crosby (C) - 5'11
13. Elias Lindholm (C) - 6'
14. Sam Reinhart (C/RW) - 6'2
15. Sebastian Aho (C/LW) - 6'
16. Mika Zibanejad (C) - 6'2
17. Joe Pavelski (C/RW) - 5'11
18. Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C) - 6'1
19. Robert Thomas (C/RW) - 6'
20. John Tavares (C) - 6'1
21. Roope Hintz (LW/C) - 6'3
22. Mark Scheifele (C) - 6'3
23. Dylan Larkin (C) - 6'1
24. Tage Thompson (W/C) - 6'7
25. Elias Pettersson (C/W) - 6'2
26. Anze Kopitar (C) - 6'4
27. Ryan Hartman (C/RW) - 6'
28. Patrice Bergeron (C) - 6'1
29. Claude Giroux (C/W) - 5'11
30. Tomas Hertl (C/LW) - 6'3
31. Chandler Stephenson (C/LW) - 5'11
32. Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10
33.Jeff Skinner (LW/C) - 5'11
34. Ryan Johansen (C) - 6'3
35. Trevor Zegras (C) - 6'
36. Nick Suzuki (C) - 5'11
37. Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW) - 6'3
38. Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW) - 6'1
39. Nico Hischier (C) - 6'1
40. Brock Nelson (C) - 6'3
41. Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) - 6'
42. Mathew Barzal (C) - 6'1
43. Brayden Point (C) - 5'10"
44. Brayden Schenn (C/W) - 6'1
45. Tim Stützle (C/LW) - 6'
46. Ryan O'Reilly (C) - 6'1"
47. Jack Hughes (C) - 5'11
48. Logan Couture (C) - 6'1
49. Josh Norris (C) - 6'2
50. Ryan Strome (C/RW) - 6'2

2 players 5'10 or shorter made this list (Brayden Point (C) - 5'10") and (Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10)

8 players are 5'11

A total of 10 out of 50 players are under the size of 6'

For those of you who are drafting Nazar expecting to get a center, I would temper your expectations. There has NEVER been a lack of prospects available in the 1st round who are undersized, play center in lower level leagues and have good puck carrying abilities. There is a reason however, as to why only 2 players 5'10 and under are in the top 50 of NHL centers.

In most cases, there is a significant size difference in someone who is 5'10 to even 5'11. I would guesstimate roughly 8-10lbs difference on average of what that player is capable of bulking up to without losing playing ability.

Obviously, some smaller guys can have more robust joint and bone structure allowing them to pack on a little more weight, but those are outliers not the norm.

For those of you not as familiar following prospects and player development. I ask you to question why a player like Patrick Kane doesn't player center in the NHL. It certainly is NOT because he isn't capable of carrying the puck down the ice and making smart decisions with the puck.

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

 

[NickH8]

This is a list of the top 50 scoring centers in the NHL from the 2021-2022 season. In order to make this list atleast 200 draws had to be taken.

1. Connor McDavid (C) - 6'1
2. Leon Draisaitl (C/W) - 6'2
3. Auston Matthews (C) - 6'3
4. Steven Stamkos (C/W) - 6'1
5. J.T. Miller (C/W) - 6'1
6. Mikko Rantanen (W/C) - 6'4
7. Aleksander Barkov (C) - 6'3
8. Nathan MacKinnon (C/RW) - 6'
9. Nazem Kadri (C) - 6'
10. Matt Duchene (C/RW) - 5'11
11. Filip Forsberg (W/C) - 6'2
12. Sidney Crosby (C) - 5'11
13. Elias Lindholm (C) - 6'
14. Sam Reinhart (C/RW) - 6'2
15. Sebastian Aho (C/LW) - 6'
16. Mika Zibanejad (C) - 6'2
17. Joe Pavelski (C/RW) - 5'11
18. Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C) - 6'1
19. Robert Thomas (C/RW) - 6'
20. John Tavares (C) - 6'1
21. Roope Hintz (LW/C) - 6'3
22. Mark Scheifele (C) - 6'3
23. Dylan Larkin (C) - 6'1
24. Tage Thompson (W/C) - 6'7
25. Elias Pettersson (C/W) - 6'2
26. Anze Kopitar (C) - 6'4
27. Ryan Hartman (C/RW) - 6'
28. Patrice Bergeron (C) - 6'1
29. Claude Giroux (C/W) - 5'11
30. Tomas Hertl (C/LW) - 6'3
31. Chandler Stephenson (C/LW) - 5'11
32. Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10
33.Jeff Skinner (LW/C) - 5'11
34. Ryan Johansen (C) - 6'3
35. Trevor Zegras (C) - 6'
36. Nick Suzuki (C) - 5'11
37. Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW) - 6'3
38. Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW) - 6'1
39. Nico Hischier (C) - 6'1
40. Brock Nelson (C) - 6'3
41. Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) - 6'
42. Mathew Barzal (C) - 6'1
43. Brayden Point (C) - 5'10"
44. Brayden Schenn (C/W) - 6'1
45. Tim Stützle (C/LW) - 6'
46. Ryan O'Reilly (C) - 6'1"
47. Jack Hughes (C) - 5'11
48. Logan Couture (C) - 6'1
49. Josh Norris (C) - 6'2
50. Ryan Strome (C/RW) - 6'2

2 players 5'10 or shorter made this list (Brayden Point (C) - 5'10") and (Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10)

8 players are 5'11

A total of 10 out of 50 players are under the size of 6'

For those of you who are drafting Nazar expecting to get a center, I would temper your expectations. There has NEVER been a lack of prospects available in the 1st round who are undersized, play center in lower level leagues and have good puck carrying abilities. There is a reason however, as to why only 2 players 5'10 and under are in the top 50 of NHL centers.

In most cases, there is a significant size difference in someone who is 5'10 to even 5'11. I would guesstimate roughly 8-10lbs difference on average of what that player is capable of bulking up to without losing playing ability.

Obviously, some smaller guys can have more robust joint and bone structure allowing them to pack on a little more weight, but those are outliers not the norm.

For those of you not as familiar following prospects and player development. I ask you to question why a player like Patrick Kane doesn't player center in the NHL. It certainly is NOT because he isn't capable of carrying the puck down the ice and making smart decisions with the puck.

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

How did Nazar measure at the combine? You certainly have a point. Some people go around expecting every player near the top of the draft to he an exception. The thing with Nazar though is center or wing he's a very good pick.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This is a list of the top 50 scoring centers in the NHL from the 2021-2022 season. In order to make this list atleast 200 draws had to be taken.

1. Connor McDavid (C) - 6'1
2. Leon Draisaitl (C/W) - 6'2
3. Auston Matthews (C) - 6'3
4. Steven Stamkos (C/W) - 6'1
5. J.T. Miller (C/W) - 6'1
6. Mikko Rantanen (W/C) - 6'4
7. Aleksander Barkov (C) - 6'3
8. Nathan MacKinnon (C/RW) - 6'
9. Nazem Kadri (C) - 6'
10. Matt Duchene (C/RW) - 5'11
11. Filip Forsberg (W/C) - 6'2
12. Sidney Crosby (C) - 5'11
13. Elias Lindholm (C) - 6'
14. Sam Reinhart (C/RW) - 6'2
15. Sebastian Aho (C/LW) - 6'
16. Mika Zibanejad (C) - 6'2
17. Joe Pavelski (C/RW) - 5'11
18. Yevgeni Kuznetsov (C) - 6'1
19. Robert Thomas (C/RW) - 6'
20. John Tavares (C) - 6'1
21. Roope Hintz (LW/C) - 6'3
22. Mark Scheifele (C) - 6'3
23. Dylan Larkin (C) - 6'1
24. Tage Thompson (W/C) - 6'7
25. Elias Pettersson (C/W) - 6'2
26. Anze Kopitar (C) - 6'4
27. Ryan Hartman (C/RW) - 6'
28. Patrice Bergeron (C) - 6'1
29. Claude Giroux (C/W) - 5'11
30. Tomas Hertl (C/LW) - 6'3
31. Chandler Stephenson (C/LW) - 5'11
32. Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10
33.Jeff Skinner (LW/C) - 5'11
34. Ryan Johansen (C) - 6'3
35. Trevor Zegras (C) - 6'
36. Nick Suzuki (C) - 5'11
37. Pierre-Luc Dubois (C/LW) - 6'3
38. Ivan Barbashyov (C/LW) - 6'1
39. Nico Hischier (C) - 6'1
40. Brock Nelson (C) - 6'3
41. Nick Schmaltz (C/RW) - 6'
42. Mathew Barzal (C) - 6'1
43. Brayden Point (C) - 5'10"
44. Brayden Schenn (C/W) - 6'1
45. Tim Stützle (C/LW) - 6'
46. Ryan O'Reilly (C) - 6'1"
47. Jack Hughes (C) - 5'11
48. Logan Couture (C) - 6'1
49. Josh Norris (C) - 6'2
50. Ryan Strome (C/RW) - 6'2

2 players 5'10 or shorter made this list (Brayden Point (C) - 5'10") and (Mikael Granlund (C) - 5'10)

8 players are 5'11

A total of 10 out of 50 players are under the size of 6'

For those of you who are drafting Nazar expecting to get a center, I would temper your expectations. There has NEVER been a lack of prospects available in the 1st round who are undersized, play center in lower level leagues and have good puck carrying abilities. There is a reason however, as to why only 2 players 5'10 and under are in the top 50 of NHL centers.

In most cases, there is a significant size difference in someone who is 5'10 to even 5'11. I would guesstimate roughly 8-10lbs difference on average of what that player is capable of bulking up to without losing playing ability.

Obviously, some smaller guys can have more robust joint and bone structure allowing them to pack on a little more weight, but those are outliers not the norm.

For those of you not as familiar following prospects and player development. I ask you to question why a player like Patrick Kane doesn't player center in the NHL. It certainly is NOT because he isn't capable of carrying the puck down the ice and making smart decisions with the puck.

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

Nazar is also only 18. It's not crazy to think he could grow an inch or two in the next 3 or 4 years. Zetterberg was 5'9" or 5'10" when Detroit drafted him and he ended up around 6'0"ish.

 

[haulinbass]

How did Nazar measure at the combine? You certainly have a point. Some people go around expecting every player near the top of the draft to he an exception. The thing with Nazar though is center or wing he's a very good pick.

Him and Ostlund both came in at 5'10

I was really disappointed to learn Ostlund didn't hit 5'11 as I thought he was.

I do agree Nazar is a very good player with some very nice offensive upside. A lot to like in that department.

But for the Red Wings, we really need to land a guy capable of playing 2C. Landing a winger who isn't a superstar does not really push the needle for us in my opinion. This is a very underwelming draft, I'm not sensing to many superstars here and I'm not pegging Nazar as quite being that outlier as a superstar winger. This team will not get far down the road without finding a decent 2C. Realistically the chances of trading for one are low as history has proven and the likeliness of ending up in a catastrophic contract that comes back to hurt the team is high in UFA. Not saying it is impossible, but very unlikely and if I'm Yzerman I'm not passing by any shot at a center.

Nazar is also only 18. It's not crazy to think he could grow an inch or two in the next 3 or 4 years. Zetterberg was 5'9" or 5'10" when Detroit drafted him and he ended up around 6'0"ish.

This is always a possibility, but doesn't seem to be the normal. Most players have reached their heights by this point. If you have any substantiol data to display higher odds than I am under the impression of then I would really be very interested in that. I'm always open to finding hope here, but I need to see some data that can convince me its more than wishful thinking.

 

[Gniwder]

Does this mean Nazar can't do it, of course not. But lets be realistic and temper expectations.

Kris Draper - 5'11" 190 lbs
Steve Yzerman - 5'11" 185 lbs

also:
Pavel Datsyuk 5'10" 189 lbs (height might depend on which leg he stands on)

For some reason, I don't think this management staff is going to be as concerned about center height as other teams. I will agree that Nazar has a lower probability of becoming an NHL center than Kasper. If there's a short guy that winds up being a center, I think it's Savoie, not Nazar.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This is always a possibility, but doesn't seem to be the normal. Most players have reached their heights by this point. If you have any substantiol data to display higher odds than I am under the impression of then I would really be very interested in that. I'm always open to finding hope here, but I need to see some data that can convince me its more than wishful thinking.

Do Guys Grow Until 25? Growth Factors, Timing & More

Typically boys stop growing in height at age 16 but it's not set in stone. I'm not finding any firm data that shows what percentage in a quick google search. My anecdotal story is, at age 14 I was 5'8" or so as a highschool freshman. By Senior year I was just under 6'1". By age 22 I was a shade above 6'3" before I stopped getting taller.

Also look at Soderblom. Didn't Detroit draft the guy at 6'6" and now he's 6'8"? Edvinsson is another guy I saw listed at around 6'5" by some outlets but then 6'6" and 6'7" recently.

 

[haulinbass]

Kris Draper - 5'11" 190 lbs
Steve Yzerman - 5'11" 185 lbs

also:
Pavel Datsyuk 5'10" 189 lbs (height might depend on which leg he stands on)

For some reason, I don't think this management staff is going to be as concerned about center height as other teams. I will agree that Nazar has a lower probability of becoming an NHL center than Kasper. If there's a short guy that winds up being a center, I think it's Savoie, not Nazar.

I have just seen way to many bad decisions by Savoie, much higher rate of turnovers than I am comfortable seeing especially playing at a junior level. I definitely understand the talent level, but between the size and decision making he finds himself off my draft list at 8. What I'm hoping is that a team bites on his talent before 8 and Gauthier falls to us. It is really hard to say how this top 10 is going to shake out.

 

[haulinbass]

Do Guys Grow Until 25? Growth Factors, Timing & More

Typically boys stop growing in height at age 16 but it's not set in stone. I'm not finding any firm data that shows what percentage in a quick google search. My anecdotal story is, at age 14 I was 5'8" or so as a highschool freshman. By Senior year I was just under 6'1". By age 22 I was a shade above 6'3" before I stopped getting taller.

Also look at Soderblom. Didn't Detroit draft the guy at 6'6" and now he's 6'8"? Edvinsson is another guy I saw listed at around 6'5" by some outlets but then 6'6" and 6'7" recently.

I wonder if its more common for larger boys to continue growing? I find some logic in a concept around adding an inch from 6'4 to 6'5 is a smaller percentage of growth than say someone going from 5'10 to 5'11. Especially if you look at it from probably a bone/body mass standpoint. More detectable than say someone going from 5'10 to 5'10 and a half. I don't know Lol.

But now that you got me thinking about it I feel like some of the big guys continued growing later than smaller guys. I'm 6' and I think I finished my height around 16?

Regardless, from what we come up with I don't think I would be drafting someone undersized and expecting growth. Obviously if you did draft a guy and he grew that would be a pleasant bonus.

 

[Gniwder]

I have just seen way to many bad decisions by Savoie, much higher rate of turnovers than I am comfortable seeing especially playing at a junior level. I definitely understand the talent level, but between the size and decision making he finds himself off my draft list at 8. What I'm hoping is that a team bites on his talent before 8 and Gauthier falls to us. It is really hard to say how this top 10 is going to shake out.

Can't argue with that, his puck decisions aren't the best. Some of it is on him, some on his linemates that always seen to be one step behind and not creating a passing lane. What if he were to play with a smarter and faster winger like Raymond?

Definitely a risk there, but once you get to pick #8, every prospect is going to have at least one flaw.