Kakko vs Höglander

[WTG]

The stats kinda show that he played at a 3rd line role last year.

7th among forwards in total TOI and 6th among forwards in 5x5 TOI

Most reports have him slotted for the 3rd line this upcoming season as well.

Vancouver Canucks Depth Charts Roster and Line Projection - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Look he might end up playing some second line duty due to injuries I just project him as an elite 3rd liner for most of his career.

If I'm wrong that's a great problem for the Canucks right?

Kakko has a clearer path to top 6 MPG this season as well since the NYR moved out Buchnevich.

Idk that Hoglander Horvat connection was pretty good. Green even commented on it early in preseason. I have my doubts they are going to split those two up. Especially for a struggling Pearson. But you never know with Green.

 

[wetcoast]

Idk that Hoglander Horvat connection was pretty good. Green even commented on it early in preseason. I have my doubts they are going to split those two up. Especially for a struggling Pearson. But you never know with Green.

Hogs does have the advantage of a low bar in Pearson to be sure and Jim Benning not being able to manage the salary cap and letting Toffoli walk in free agency helps as well.

Kakko still has the clearer path to top 6 MPG though.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Kakko and it's not even remotely close.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Weird take basically saying Hoglander will have zero improvements in his career and i'd argue he's already better than that at even strength (top 60 in 5v5 point)


"one of the best defensive forwards in the league" is a major exaggeration. The power forward excuse is one thrown around for big players underperforming. To say it's not close when Hoglander right now is a far better player is laughable.

It isn't an exaggeration at all, if anything it is underselling Kakko as by nearly every metric he was THE best defensive forward in the league; whilst being much younger than any of his peers.

 

[Fatass]

Kakko has been disappointing, but he has by far the higher ceiling.

 

[Regal]

Don’t be sensitive. Hog lander is and always will be a 3rd liner at best. I’m not the only one saying it. Lots of people share this view and they aren’t wrong.

This isn’t disrespectful. It’s a compliment for a player of that caliber to be considered a top 9 forward. He should consider himself lucky.

No one cares about disrespect, but you are very clearly wrong.

The stats kinda show that he played at a 3rd line role last year.

7th among forwards in total TOI and 6th among forwards in 5x5 TOI

Most reports have him slotted for the 3rd line this upcoming season as well.

Vancouver Canucks Depth Charts Roster and Line Projection - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Look he might end up playing some second line duty due to injuries I just project him as an elite 3rd liner for most of his career.

If I'm wrong that's a great problem for the Canucks right?

Kakko has a clearer path to top 6 MPG this season as well since the NYR moved out Buchnevich.

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Hoglander was actually 3rd on the team among forwards in 5v5 minutes, and 4th in 5v5 minutes per game, ahead of even Pettersson. Yes, he was 7th in total ice time per game among forwards, but that's not due to PP time, it's because of Motte's 3 minutes of PK time, and no one will argue that Motte is a top 6er on the team. Meanwhile, his 4 most common linemates by far were Horvat, Pearson, Boeser and Miller and he was in the top 6 pretty much the entire year last year, mostly on the Horvat line.

Besides that, he produced like one. He tied for 48th in the league in 5v5 points, and was 2nd on the team, only 2 behind Boeser, and well ahead of Miller and Horvat. He also led the team in 5v5 goals and was tied for 42nd in the league there. Among players with at least 500 minutes, he was tied for 70th in 5v5 P/60, again 3rd on the team, behind Pettersson and only 0.04 behind Boeser. He was also tied for 58th in G/60 at 5v5 among those with at least 500 minutes, which was 2nd on the team. And he did this with a very sustainable 9% on-ice shooting percentage and 11% individual shooting percentage.

Meanwhile, he led the team in CF%, was 2nd in SF%, 4th in GF%, 2nd in xGF%, and 2nd in HDCF%. The underlying numbers suggest he was one of the best play-drivers on the team, and because he mostly played on the Horvat line, he played against strong competition.

The regression numbers also suggest he was one of the best drivers on the team:

So when he played the minutes of a 2nd liner, played mostly on Horvat's wing, which is widely considered the 2nd line, produced better than a 2nd liner and drove play as well as anyone on the team, everything points to him being a second liner.

I know you said something before about not seeing the IQ and skill to play in the top 6 and I think maybe you watched the wrong games. Until Pettersson's injury I was hoping that they'd be put together instead, because I thought his IQ and possession game would be a perfect fit for him. He's strong on his skates and hard to knock off the puck, and routinely makes little plays to gain or keep possession, and I thought he was regularly getting the puck to others in good areas to create something. He's not like a Jannik Hansen, who could drive play and produce in spurts, but too often killed play for more skilled players. I think he'll be a very good complementary top 6 player for years, and if he's a third liner, it would be on a crazy deep team like Tampa. The capfriendly chart is a bit ridiculous. I haven't seen anyone who knows the team put Pearson ahead. Hoglander was better last year than Pearson has ever been. He did have a lull in the middle of the season though, where his decision making didn't seem as good, so perhaps that's the issue.

 

[AsparaGus]

No one cares about disrespect, but you are very clearly wrong.



I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Hoglander was actually 3rd on the team among forwards in 5v5 minutes, and 4th in 5v5 minutes per game, ahead of even Pettersson. Yes, he was 7th in total ice time per game among forwards, but that's not due to PP time, it's because of Motte's 3 minutes of PK time, and no one will argue that Motte is a top 6er on the team. Meanwhile, his 4 most common linemates by far were Horvat, Pearson, Boeser and Miller and he was in the top 6 pretty much the entire year last year, mostly on the Horvat line.

Besides that, he produced like one. He tied for 48th in the league in 5v5 points, and was 2nd on the team, only 2 behind Boeser, and well ahead of Miller and Horvat. He also led the team in 5v5 goals and was tied for 42nd in the league there. Among players with at least 500 minutes, he was tied for 70th in 5v5 P/60, again 3rd on the team, behind Pettersson and only 0.04 behind Boeser. He was also tied for 58th in G/60 at 5v5 among those with at least 500 minutes, which was 2nd on the team. And he did this with a very sustainable 9% on-ice shooting percentage and 11% individual shooting percentage.

Meanwhile, he led the team in CF%, was 2nd in SF%, 4th in GF%, 2nd in xGF%, and 2nd in HDCF%. The underlying numbers suggest he was one of the best play-drivers on the team, and because he mostly played on the Horvat line, he played against strong competition.

The regression numbers also suggest he was one of the best drivers on the team:

View attachment 460126

So when he played the minutes of a 2nd liner, played mostly on Horvat's wing, which is widely considered the 2nd line, produced better than a 2nd liner and drove play as well as anyone on the team, everything points to him being a second liner.

I know you said something before about not seeing the IQ and skill to play in the top 6 and I think maybe you watched the wrong games. Until Pettersson's injury I was hoping that they'd be put together instead, because I thought his IQ and possession game would be a perfect fit for him. He's strong on his skates and hard to knock off the puck, and routinely makes little plays to gain or keep possession, and I thought he was regularly getting the puck to others in good areas to create something. He's not like a Jannik Hansen, who could drive play and produce in spurts, but too often killed play for more skilled players. I think he'll be a very good complementary top 6 player for years, and if he's a third liner, it would be on a crazy deep team like Tampa. The capfriendly chart is a bit ridiculous. I haven't seen anyone who knows the team put Pearson ahead. Hoglander was better last year than Pearson has ever been. He did have a lull in the middle of the season though, where his decision making didn't seem as good, so perhaps that's the issue.

I’m not going to try and be the smartest guy in the room. When 98% of the world is saying he’s a top-9 player at best and you’re saying otherwise, it’s not me that’s sticking his neck out. It’s you. This is a YOU problem. I’m good just repeating what the rest of NHL observers are saying.

Again, this isn’t a slight on the player. He’s alright, I guess… But the Canucks will have other players to be excited about. Why specifically this player? Why is this the one you need to convince people that he’s as good as a lottery pick? When it’s painfully obvious that it’s not even close.

This is new shiny toy syndrome. You’ll forget about him by game 32 this season. He’ll fade into the background like a solid 3rd liner should.

 

[wetcoast]

No one cares about disrespect, but you are very clearly wrong.



I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers, but Hoglander was actually 3rd on the team among forwards in 5v5 minutes, and 4th in 5v5 minutes per game, ahead of even Pettersson. Yes, he was 7th in total ice time per game among forwards, but that's not due to PP time, it's because of Motte's 3 minutes of PK time, and no one will argue that Motte is a top 6er on the team. Meanwhile, his 4 most common linemates by far were Horvat, Pearson, Boeser and Miller and he was in the top 6 pretty much the entire year last year, mostly on the Horvat line.

Besides that, he produced like one. He tied for 48th in the league in 5v5 points, and was 2nd on the team, only 2 behind Boeser, and well ahead of Miller and Horvat. He also led the team in 5v5 goals and was tied for 42nd in the league there. Among players with at least 500 minutes, he was tied for 70th in 5v5 P/60, again 3rd on the team, behind Pettersson and only 0.04 behind Boeser. He was also tied for 58th in G/60 at 5v5 among those with at least 500 minutes, which was 2nd on the team. And he did this with a very sustainable 9% on-ice shooting percentage and 11% individual shooting percentage.

Meanwhile, he led the team in CF%, was 2nd in SF%, 4th in GF%, 2nd in xGF%, and 2nd in HDCF%. The underlying numbers suggest he was one of the best play-drivers on the team, and because he mostly played on the Horvat line, he played against strong competition.

The regression numbers also suggest he was one of the best drivers on the team:

View attachment 460126

So when he played the minutes of a 2nd liner, played mostly on Horvat's wing, which is widely considered the 2nd line, produced better than a 2nd liner and drove play as well as anyone on the team, everything points to him being a second liner.

I know you said something before about not seeing the IQ and skill to play in the top 6 and I think maybe you watched the wrong games. Until Pettersson's injury I was hoping that they'd be put together instead, because I thought his IQ and possession game would be a perfect fit for him. He's strong on his skates and hard to knock off the puck, and routinely makes little plays to gain or keep possession, and I thought he was regularly getting the puck to others in good areas to create something. He's not like a Jannik Hansen, who could drive play and produce in spurts, but too often killed play for more skilled players. I think he'll be a very good complementary top 6 player for years, and if he's a third liner, it would be on a crazy deep team like Tampa. The capfriendly chart is a bit ridiculous. I haven't seen anyone who knows the team put Pearson ahead. Hoglander was better last year than Pearson has ever been. He did have a lull in the middle of the season though, where his decision making didn't seem as good, so perhaps that's the issue.

Fair enough, even when I wrote the 5X5 I was just trying to avoid an awkward sentence with even strength minutes.

So that's my bad there

2020-21 Vancouver Canucks Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

He was 6th in ES MPG on the Canucks.

Analytics are great but not everything either here.

We saw the great rookie season form Hughes 19-20 then saw how the league adjusted to him.

Multiple media accounts also are talking about a 3rd line with Hogs/Podz and Dickinson but who really knows and yes Pearson isn't a lock for 2nd line minutes either.

But I stand by the opinion that Kakko has a clearer path to top 6 MPG than Hoglander does.

I also think that alot of the hype of Hoglander being a potential top 6 player came more from a short sample WJHC than his play in the SHL but like I said if he eventually becomes a solid top 6 guy then it's a good thing for the Canucks but I was told similar things about Jake Virtanen when there were obvious signs that he wasn't very good top 6 material.

Hopefully he becomes that top 6 winger others see here but I'm not convinced yet.

 

[Nabrules]

Canucks fan saying Kakko here but the face that it’s even up for discussion shows the rise to Hoglander and the slow cook for kakko.

 

[Regal]

I’m not going to try and be the smartest guy in the room. When 98% of the world is saying he’s a top-9 player at best and you’re saying otherwise, it’s not me that’s sticking his neck out. It’s you. This is a YOU problem. I’m good just repeating what the rest of NHL observers are saying.

Again, this isn’t a slight on the player. He’s alright, I guess… But the Canucks will have other players to be excited about. Why specifically this player? Why is this the one you need to convince people that he’s as good as a lottery pick? When it’s painfully obvious that it’s not even close.

This is new shiny toy syndrome. You’ll forget about him by game 32 this season. He’ll fade into the background like a solid 3rd liner should.

That's a lot of words to say nothing at all except to tell everyone you don't know a damn thing. I made the argument for him. You're just mindlessly spouting off like a fool. I'd love to see these 98% who supposedly agree with you. You're a joke

 

[wetcoast]

That's a lot of words to say nothing at all except to tell everyone you don't know a damn thing. I made the argument for him. You're just mindlessly spouting off like a fool. I'd love to see these 98% who supposedly agree with you. You're a joke

Hey let's relax a bit here , after he might be one of those morons referred to in another thread, you know, the one were people voting for the Norris are morons......

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

It isn't an exaggeration at all, if anything it is underselling Kakko as by nearly every metric he was THE best defensive forward in the league; whilst being much younger than any of his peers.

Kakko did have a great year defensively but those could be a bit misleading, no? I don’t remember him being used in a checking role against top lines and his zone starts were 62-38 offensive last year as well. I think it’s possible his defensive metrics go down a bit this year as a top 6 player but those offensive metrics go way up depending if he plays with Panarin or Zibanejad

 

[Bankerguy]

Hoglander has 2nd line highend potential, Kakko has first line potential
I would say that Hoglander is like almost at 2nd line level right now. Watch him put up 50 pts nxt year while Kakko struggles to hit 30

 

[Ace of Hades]

Don’t be sensitive. Hog lander is and always will be a 3rd liner at best. I’m not the only one saying it. Lots of people share this view and they aren’t wrong.

This isn’t disrespectful. It’s a compliment for a player of that caliber to be considered a top 9 forward. He should consider himself lucky.

So basically you got nothing, showed your Oiler bias, and provided nothing of any value to the discussion. Still have not produced any reasoning for your horrendous claims. Basically talking out of your ass. A few people is not a lots or 98 percent.

I guess Puljujarvi is a fourth liner at best, and that should be compliment for a player of that caliber, and should consider himself lucky too, based on your own logic.

 

[biturbo19]

Right now, Hoglander may be slightly better...but it's close. Long-term, i still very comfortably bet on Kakko and the higher "ceiling" there.

That said, Hoglander has shown the ability to play and thrive as a highly productive "top-6 forward" at even strength. His potential ceiling isn't as high as Kakko's overall, but the comments labelling his "ceiling" as a "3rd liner" are out to lunch here. It's just the Powerplay aspect that hasn't been there. It may be lack of opportunity, but it also very well may not ever be there, given his style of play. That definitely factors into his ultimate "upside", and along with other elements, in why i'd consider Kakko's ceiling that much higher. But in terms of playing 5v5 minutes, Top-6 isn't even so much a "ceiling" for Hoglander, as it is the actual level of play he's demonstrated an ability to achieve. Albeit in a small sample that needs reinforcement to confirm.

Unless the PP ability (opportunity?) comes in, that'll always cap his production level to something in the ~40s pts bulk points range. That's a fair critique, if he can't add significant value in that role as a "Top-6 Forward". But in Vancouver at least, and plenty of other teams, that's probably fine so long as the 1st unit PP minutes are well spoken for. After all, on any given team...only 3 or 4 of your "Top-6 Forwards" are going to consistently get those prime, top powerplay unit opportunities anyway.

 

[Ace of Hades]

The homer rangers fans calling it Kakko and its not even close are hilarious.

The stats kinda show that he played at a 3rd line role last year.

7th among forwards in total TOI and 6th among forwards in 5x5 TOI

Most reports have him slotted for the 3rd line this upcoming season as well.

Vancouver Canucks Depth Charts Roster and Line Projection - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Look he might end up playing some second line duty due to injuries I just project him as an elite 3rd liner for most of his career.

If I'm wrong that's a great problem for the Canucks right?

Kakko has a clearer path to top 6 MPG this season as well since the NYR moved out Buchnevich.

His deployment was that of a second liner as he played on the second line.

His TOI is reduced because of the fact that Green is a moron who did not trust him enough to play him at late stages of the game. However as user Regal stated above, his overall TOI was that of a second liner.

He drived a lot of the play on his line, and made his linemates better as well as a result.

Calling him a third liner when he produced second line production is silly. He is also not one dimentional, as he was solid on both ends of the ice as a rookie and played as a veteran for a fair amount of time.

Hoglander is slotted to play in the second line again next season, and was significantly better than Kakko.

You predict him to be an elite third liner based of nothing of substantial reasoning.

 

[canuckking1]

It isn't an exaggeration at all, if anything it is underselling Kakko as by nearly every metric he was THE best defensive forward in the league; whilst being much younger than any of his peers.

To be one of the best defensive forwards in the league you have to be consistently matched up against the best players and shut them down. It's a major exaggeration for a prospect that's been extremely disappointing offensively.

 

[ddlennon]

To be one of the best defensive forwards in the league you have to be consistently matched up against the best players and shut them down. It's a major exaggeration for a prospect that's been extremely disappointing offensively.

to be good defensive forward you have to be good on offense ? lmao

 

[John Johnson]

to be good defensive forward you have to be good on offense ? lmao

Re-read his post again I don't think you quite understood.

 

[wetcoast]

The homer rangers fans calling it Kakko and its not even close are hilarious.



His deployment was that of a second liner as he played on the second line.

His TOI is reduced because of the fact that Green is a moron who did not trust him enough to play him at late stages of the game. However as user Regal stated above, his overall TOI was that of a second liner.

He drived a lot of the play on his line, and made his linemates better as well as a result.

Calling him a third liner when he produced second line production is silly. He is also not one dimentional, as he was solid on both ends of the ice as a rookie and played as a veteran for a fair amount of time.

Hoglander is slotted to play in the second line again next season, and was significantly better than Kakko.

You predict him to be an elite third liner based of nothing of substantial reasoning.

I never said he was one dimensional just that I think he projects as a 3rd liner in his career, The fact that he did play on the second line doesn't take away that he was on the border of top 6 in MPG and at ES guys like Lockwood and Highmore played about 30 seconds less per game than he did.

We also don't know that he is slotted to play on the second line as i stated above I had a link with projected lines and the talk in the Vancouver media is that he is likely slotted to play with Podz and newly acquired Jason Dickinson (who is a black hole offensively and poor on faceoffs)

No doubt that if Hoglander does indeed start on a 3rd line with him you will complain that he really is a second liner and being held back...we have seen that movie before with Virtanaen.

Like I said before the bar is Pearson, unless guys get shuffled and play on off wings ect...there are alot of guys in the league not on the top 6 on their teams that are better than Pearson as well.

 

[canuckking1]

I never said he was one dimensional just that I think he projects as a 3rd liner in his career, The fact that he did play on the second line doesn't take away that he was on the border of top 6 in MPG and at ES guys like Lockwood and Highmore played about 30 seconds less per game than he did.

We also don't know that he is slotted to play on the second line as i stated above I had a link with projected lines and the talk in the Vancouver media is that he is likely slotted to play with Podz and newly acquired Jason Dickinson (who is a black hole offensively and poor on faceoffs)

No doubt that if Hoglander does indeed start on a 3rd line with him you will complain that he really is a second liner and being held back...we have seen that movie before with Virtanaen.

Like I said before the bar is Pearson, unless guys get shuffled and play on off wings ect...there are alot of guys in the league not on the top 6 on their teams that are better than Pearson as well.

Highmore played 18 games (Not a single game with Pettersson in the lineup) and Lockwood played 2. You clearly didn't watch the Canucks this season as he was on the 2nd line at ES all season bar a few games and by results at 5v5 (top 60 in 5v5 scoring) he faired well there. Your posts in this thread sound like you haven't updated any information on this past season and are a year behind. Basically projecting him as a 3rd liner (he's already there and arguably better) means he'll get worse and see zero improvements in his career.

 

[Luck 6]

Why is his upside only 3rd liner?

The skill clearly isn’t there…

 

[Ace of Hades]

I never said he was one dimensional just that I think he projects as a 3rd liner in his career, The fact that he did play on the second line doesn't take away that he was on the border of top 6 in MPG and at ES guys like Lockwood and Highmore played about 30 seconds less per game than he did.

We also don't know that he is slotted to play on the second line as i stated above I had a link with projected lines and the talk in the Vancouver media is that he is likely slotted to play with Podz and newly acquired Jason Dickinson (who is a black hole offensively and poor on faceoffs)

No doubt that if Hoglander does indeed start on a 3rd line with him you will complain that he really is a second liner and being held back...we have seen that movie before with Virtanaen.

Like I said before the bar is Pearson, unless guys get shuffled and play on off wings ect...there are alot of guys in the league not on the top 6 on their teams that are better than Pearson as well.

I did not say you believed he was one dimensional. That statement was adding accordingly to what kind of player he is.

Projected lines (which itself is too early) dont mean much when they can be changed from any point in time.

Ofcourse, any reasonable person would have it as a complaint. You want a young player to be successful, put them in positions to succeed. You simply dont seem to understand this concept that he has produced as a relatively decent second line forward and drived play on his line. Hoglander at his age is significantly better than Virtanen ever was.

 

[summer tooth]

I personally believe Kappo Kakko could still easily turn things around, but one or two more underperforming years and he starts getting into "bust" territory. He has more potential to develop into a superstud, and is more likely to be better going forward, but right now at this moment if I had to choose which one to play with, it's Hoglander.

 

[Regal]

I did not say you believed he was one dimensional. That statement was adding accordingly to what kind of player he is.

Projected lines (which itself is too early) dont mean much when they can be changed from any point in time.

Ofcourse, any reasonable person would have it as a complaint. You want a young player to be successful, put them in positions to succeed. You simply dont seem to understand this concept that he has produced as a relatively decent second line forward and drived play on his line. Hoglander at his age is significantly better than Virtanen ever was.

Yea, I understand the apprehension to some degree in comparison to Jake. Virtanen produced at a 2nd line rate at 5v5 in '20, then was awful last season and now might be out of the league. But despite somewhat similar production, Hoglander's underlying numbers are much better than Jake's were, he's younger, doesn't have the track record of poor play, doesn't have question marks about his fitness or commitment, and just visually, Hoglander looked like a far smarter player and was far more consistent shift to shift and game to game. While possible, I just don't see any reason to believe his play will regress.