JVR - Are we over him yet?

[The Apologist]

Read it so much you had to ask about it again the Kadri thread (now moved here)?

He drove wide a few times last night, like he usually does, using that big body to protect the puck. Had a few nice passes where he was stretch out around defensemen, again using his size. Playing more physical in corners, laying the body more, which again seems pretty obvious to me.

He's not a star defensively, but he's been fine there this season and was one of the teams better defensive forwards up until the ~40 or so game mark of last year.

Your hate for the guy seems illogical. He's not a perfect player, but people who don't see how he uses his size has a very limited view of what that means.

I asked you to clarify what you thought was wrong with my statement instead of posting the usual one liner with no substance.

I disagree that he has been 'fine' defensively this season. He still misses his checks far too often and tends to check out when the puck hits our zone. Having 'a few nice passes' doesnt cover for this, nor does the first half of last season a career make.
I gave him all the credit in the world when he was playing well. Sadly, its the exception and not the norm.

Well done on playing the old 'hater' card though, very original and well thought out.

 

[Gallagbi]

I asked you to clarify what you thought was wrong with my statement instead of posting the usual one liner with no substance.

Yet if you knew my stance, you'd know what was wrong with it.

I disagree that he has been 'fine' defensively this season. He still misses his checks far too often and tends to check out when the puck hits our zone. Having 'a few nice passes' doesnt cover for this, nor does the first half of last season a career make.
I gave him all the credit in the world when he was playing well. Sadly, its the exception and not the norm.

Well done on playing the old 'hater' card though, very original and well thought out.

It's too obvious not to, sometimes you have to call a spade a spade.

As for the rest, it doesn't hold much weight. I went in to detail about size and you aren't really able to counter it.

Instead you'll fall back on loose opinions about his defensive play through a heavily biased view. Ignoring his ability to win battles on the half boards and clear the zone better than most of our wingers. But then to recognize that, you'd also have to slide on your size argument.

 

[Gallagbi]

Value similar to that of a late first and a top prospect, like Kessel.

No, he's no Kessel, but he's half the price, comes with none of the concerns, and in a similar situation he can give you ~80% of the production.

Depending on the top prospect, I'd likely move him ft the package but I don't know if I see that as his value.

 

[X66]

JVR IMO has played his most complete hockey ever this year(so far). He's also been a lot more noticeable game in and game out. If Kadri was not as snake bitten, he'd have at least 5 more points.

I like what I'm seeing from him.

 

[The Apologist]

JVR IMO has played his most complete hockey ever this year(so far). He's also been a lot more noticeable game in and game out. If Kadri was not as snake bitten, he'd have at least 5 more points.

I like what I'm seeing from him.

Fair enough. I just dont see it. I do agree that when Kadri gets going the points will come however points were never my concern with JVR.

 

[Wendelstache]

He's not gonna be the best defensive guy, or the hardest worker out there but at the end of the day he produces.

Even with inferior linemates we can count on him to produce 25-30g a year.

 

[The Apologist]

He's not gonna be the best defensive guy, or the hardest worker out there but at the end of the day he produces.

Even with inferior linemates we can count on him to produce 25-30g a year.

This is true, but didnt we just run a ppg player out the door for being so one dimensional?

 

[dballislife2]

JVR is a legit around 30ish goal scoring winger in the nhl...thats a big piece towards building a great team...u dont just for some reason want to get rid of this cus ur team is bad right now

 

[The Apologist]

JVR is a legit around 30ish goal scoring winger in the nhl...thats a big piece towards building a great team...u dont just for some reason want to get rid of this cus ur team is bad right now

Again, did we not just do this?

 

[Rogie]

Last year, JVR's CF% was 44.6% 5v5 ES. I have no idea where that would rank him - somewhere very near the bottom of the Corsi rankings along with most ALL of the other Leafs.

This year JVR's CF% is 59.1% and ranks 12th OVERALL. (Komarov ranks 11th)

What a huge change in Corsi.

Competition hasn't changed too much if any.
TWO Different line-mates.
New coach.
New system.
Entire team's Corsi hugely improved.

I have to think breaking up Kessel/Bozak/JVR is/was the best for all 3 of them.

If he still looks to be playing without enough passion (he doesn't to me, but many feel that way), or if he looks like he isn't playing 200 feet and doing MORE defensively, his numbers are showing something different - unless he is so great that he can put up those numbers while not giving 100%$, which I don't think is the case.

 

[The Apologist]

Last year, JVR's CF% was 44.6% 5v5 ES. I have no idea where that would rank him - somewhere very near the bottom of the Corsi rankings along with most ALL of the other Leafs.

This year JVR's CF% is 59.1% and ranks 12th OVERALL. (Komarov ranks 11th)

What a huge change in Corsi.

Competition hasn't changed too much if any.
TWO Different line-mates.
New coach.
New system.
Entire team's Corsi hugely improved.

I have to think breaking up Kessel/Bozak/JVR is/was the best for all 3 of them.

If he still looks to be playing without enough passion (he doesn't to me, but many feel that way), or if he looks like he isn't playing 200 feet and doing MORE defensively, his numbers are showing something different - unless he is so great that he can put up those numbers while not giving 100%$, which I don't think is the case.

Cf% can be greatly affected by linemates can it not? Having the possesion king Nazem Kadri on his line would help that greatly. What other numbers show his defensive play has improved?

 

[Rogie]

Cf% can be greatly affected by linemates can it not? Having the possesion king Nazem Kadri on his line would help that greatly. What other numbers show his defensive play has improved?

Last year, his GA/60 minutes was 3.2 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This year, his GA/60 minutes is 2.0 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This stat means that when JVR is on the ice, the Leafs are scored on at a rate of 2 goals per 60 minutes. So, imagine, if every forward and every Dman was JVR look a like for an entire game, we would give up an average of 2 goals per game.

Last year, if every forward and Dman was a JVR look alike, we gave up 3.2 goals per game.

 

[The Apologist]

Last year, his GA/60 minutes was 3.2 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This year, his GA/60 minutes is 2.0 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This stat means that when JVR is on the ice, the Leafs are scored on at a rate of 2 goals per 60 minutes. So, imagine, if every forward and every Dman was JVR look a like for an entire game, we would give up an average of 2 goals per game.

Last year, if every forward and Dman was a JVR look alike, we gave up 3.2 goals per game.

Fair enough, thats a fair measure although again I believe it is greatly affected by his teammates and not really reflective of him personally.
I guess I personally expect more from him.

 

[Rogie]

Fair enough, thats a fair measure although again I believe it is greatly affected by his teammates and not really reflective of him personally.
I guess I personally expect more from him.

If you think Kadri and Komi are the main reasons that when JVR is on the ice the team gives up 1 goal less per game this year than when he was on the ice last year but that it doesn't reflect on JVR's play, okay, that doesn't make sense to me, but, if that's how you see it then, okay.

 

[Ovate]

Last year, his GA/60 minutes was 3.2 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This year, his GA/60 minutes is 2.0 GA/60 minutes for 5v5 ES.

This stat means that when JVR is on the ice, the Leafs are scored on at a rate of 2 goals per 60 minutes. So, imagine, if every forward and every Dman was JVR look a like for an entire game, we would give up an average of 2 goals per game.

Last year, if every forward and Dman was a JVR look alike, we gave up 3.2 goals per game.

Actually no, that's not what it means at all. And you should be able to realize that intuitively, because JVR is not a defenseman and if he was forced to play that position he would give up a ton of goals (like almost every other forward)

GA per 60 just tells you how many goals against we scored per 60 minutes JVR was on the ice. Doesn't take into account linemates, zone starts, score effects, goaltending, QoC or any other factor. The shift from Kessel and Bozak in the D-Zone to Kadri and Komarov in the O-Zone makes a huge impact on his GA/60, even without changing his play at all.

Also consider that he's only played 209:37 at even strength this year. If our goalies had let in just one more, his GA/60 would jump nearly 0.3. If our goalies had saved one more his GA/60 would drop nearly 0.3. If those kind of swings are possible based on a single goal, that should tell you it's not a reliable stat.

 

[Gallagbi]

Actually no, that's not what it means at all. And you should be able to realize that intuitively, because JVR is not a defenseman and if he was forced to play that position he would give up a ton of goals (like almost every other forward)

GA per 60 just tells you how many goals against we scored per 60 minutes JVR was on the ice. Doesn't take into account linemates, zone starts, score effects, goaltending, QoC or any other factor. The shift from Kessel and Bozak in the D-Zone to Kadri and Komarov in the O-Zone makes a huge impact on his GA/60, even without changing his play at all.

Also consider that he's only played 209:37 at even strength this year. If our goalies had let in just one more, his GA/60 would jump nearly 0.3. If our goalies had saved one more his GA/60 would drop nearly 0.3. If those kind of swings are possible based on a single goal, that should tell you it's not a reliable stat.

The stat is reliable, the sample size is questionable (as is every one at this point), but given the OPs desire to judge on this season it's tough to expand.

 

[The Apologist]

If you think Kadri and Komi are the main reasons that when JVR is on the ice the team gives up 1 goal less per game this year than when he was on the ice last year but that it doesn't reflect on JVR's play, okay, that doesn't make sense to me, but, if that's how you see it then, okay.

Odd that the same player was terrible last year but much improved this year without somewhat factoring in linemates wouldn't you say?

And whos judging on this year alone? Feel free to go back as long as you want. I certainly have no qualms with it.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Actually no, that's not what it means at all. And you should be able to realize that intuitively, because JVR is not a defenseman and if he was forced to play that position he would give up a ton of goals (like almost every other forward)

I don't think that's what the poster meant, but I could be wrong.

GA per 60 just tells you how many goals against we scored per 60 minutes JVR was on the ice. Doesn't take into account linemates, zone starts, score effects, goaltending, QoC or any other factor. The shift from Kessel and Bozak in the D-Zone to Kadri and Komarov in the O-Zone makes a huge impact on his GA/60, even without changing his play at all.

To be fair, you can adjust for some of those factors, and some of the others are only meaningful because the sample is so small.

Also consider that he's only played 209:37 at even strength this year. If our goalies had let in just one more, his GA/60 would jump nearly 0.3. If our goalies had saved one more his GA/60 would drop nearly 0.3. If those kind of swings are possible based on a single goal, that should tell you it's not a reliable stat.

It's not a reliable stat, but it is a valid one (goal differential, that is): there's a very strong correlation between '5on5 GF%' and 'Pt%'. The problem with GF% (and why it's not indicative of a player's ability) is the minuscule sample. There's virtually no YoY correlation, so it's impossible to consider a single year (even multi-year) sample indicative of player's ability; if it were, then a player (and team) would have little variance between multi-year measure of GF percentages.

 

[Rogie]

Odd that the same player was terrible last year but much improved this year without somewhat factoring in linemates wouldn't you say?

And whos judging on this year alone? Feel free to go back as long as you want. I certainly have no qualms with it.

I agree his line-mates most certainly factored into the difference in the GA/60 min difference. I think they've all contributed to each others play; I just also feel that JVR is part of that, in that, he is (I won't say 1/3, because there are 3 on that line), but, he's played well and thus has contributed a large part to the difference in the GA/60.
But, sorry, if I misunderstood you, you said in the last post that it (talking about the improved difference in the GA/60) didn't reflect JVR's play personally, which I understood and read to mean that it had nothing to do with JVR playing better and the difference was only because of his linemates and not anything to do with him.
That is what I thought you meant when you said, "I believe it is greatly affected by his teammates and not really reflective of him personally."

 

[Rogie]

Actually no, that's not what it means at all. And you should be able to realize that intuitively, because JVR is not a defenseman and if he was forced to play that position he would give up a ton of goals (like almost every other forward)

GA per 60 just tells you how many goals against we scored per 60 minutes JVR was on the ice. Doesn't take into account linemates, zone starts, score effects, goaltending, QoC or any other factor. The shift from Kessel and Bozak in the D-Zone to Kadri and Komarov in the O-Zone makes a huge impact on his GA/60, even without changing his play at all.

Also consider that he's only played 209:37 at even strength this year. If our goalies had let in just one more, his GA/60 would jump nearly 0.3. If our goalies had saved one more his GA/60 would drop nearly 0.3. If those kind of swings are possible based on a single goal, that should tell you it's not a reliable stat.

My bad, sorry, I shouldn't have said, if the remaining 4 player were JVR look-a-likes. I thought it would help explain the point but it was a bad analogy. I just meant if all other players on the ice were sporting the same GA/60 stat.

And I understand the size of this year's sample is small and I wasn't making predictions (at least i didn't intend to), I was just citing last year's stats and this years stats and showing the big difference between them so far. This year's numbers are certainly clearly much much better. Not saying they will remain that good, just saying they are much better so far; again, I'm not drawing a conclusion or making any predictions here.

Looking at updated stats after this last win, JVR's GA/60 (5v5ES) remains at 2.00 GA/60.
You could add one more goal to the mix, and add .3 to GA/60 and it would be
2.30 GA/60 this year which is still almost 1 FULL goal/60 minutes better than last year's 3.23 GA/60.
Almost a one goal or .93 goals per game difference - seems like a big difference so far.

 

[thewave]

I like JVR but the teams heating up to much. I think they should wait to see if he heats up more and the offload him for picks and prospects. We can take back a short term dump. Move Lupul (LW) with Kadri and make sure we are bottom 5.

The more I think about it, its the best choice. You can't play Bernier over Reimer because the Goalie tank job just destroys players. Giving a Marlie not named Nylander a spot does not

 

[The Apologist]

I agree his line-mates most certainly factored into the difference in the GA/60 min difference. I think they've all contributed to each others play; I just also feel that JVR is part of that, in that, he is (I won't say 1/3, because there are 3 on that line), but, he's played well and thus has contributed a large part to the difference in the GA/60.
But, sorry, if I misunderstood you, you said in the last post that it (talking about the improved difference in the GA/60) didn't reflect JVR's play personally, which I understood and read to mean that it had nothing to do with JVR playing better and the difference was only because of his linemates and not anything to do with him.
That is what I thought you meant when you said, "I believe it is greatly affected by his teammates and not really reflective of him personally."

I could have worded it better. I meant to say the line as a whole and not just JVR. The line has looked great, just not sure if JVR is a big part of the reason for it or greatly benefitting from it. Seeing as in the past he has tended to conform to the play of his linemates I tend to think you may be right and he may be looking better. I just wish he would be more consistent

 

[Gallagbi]

Seeing as in the past he has tended to conform to the play of his linemates I tend to think you may be right and he may be looking better. I just wish he would be more consistent

Big change from "I think hes also shown that his defensive acumen was not a product of Kessel. He floats all on his own."

 

[The Apologist]

Big change from "I think hes also shown that his defensive acumen was not a product of Kessel. He floats all on his own."

I still think he floats more than his linemates. Anytime hes on the ice with Bozak he seems lost. He still appears to be the last one back way too often.

But yes, I may have been a tad too quick to project it as an all the time thing.

I can admit when im wrong. No worries

 

[ULF_55]

He was not particularly good last night.

I think he should be bringing more, but maybe it is the line combination that is holding him back.

Maybe they should try him with a different center ... someone like Nylander?