Justin Holl

[IPS]

Honestly, I don’t mind the idea of Babcock coaching another NHL team at a sub-optimal level while creation friction with star players and management.

I've been wanting to see Babcock coach another team since he's been fired. I've been of the firm belief that he's been a poor coach for a long time who's been riding his reputation. Doesn't seem like anyone's interested in hiring him though. .

 

[PromisedLand]

Hard to argue your rankings. In my mind everyone of our Defensmen have played great. Rielly of course is the polarizing one of the bunch for some. I really think people need to pump the breaks on him being "useless" or a "liability". He is a high risk/reward defenseman with average defensive zone abilities. But he logs a f*** ton of minutes, and generate a lot from the back end. Holl has been such a treat to watch, just does everything right it seems. Love what Derms and Bogo have brought to the table as well. I think the second Dermott realized he is better being a defense first D-man instead of a high risk puck mover he became a completely different player. Just remarkable watching his progression. at this point, I'd protect Rielly, Brodie, Holl, Dermott in expansion. If Seattle takes Muzz (which i'd imagine they would) then run the following D next year:

Rielly - Brodie
Dermott - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren
Bogo

Muzz has a full NTC until the last year of his contract

 

[Twine Tickler]

Muzz has a full NTC until the last year of his contract

I was reading on this board that the NMC vs NTC makes a difference when coming to the expansion draft. Wherein you only have to protect NMC. I will not pretend to be an expert on this, so if anyone on here knows the ruling on that I'd actually love to know myself lol. But as per capfriendly his NMC moves to a NTC this coming offseason and then a modified NTC on July 1, 2023

 

[PromisedLand]

coming offseason and then a modified NTC on July 1, 2023

my understanding is that if one has nmc or full NTC they are automatically protected. may be someone else can chime in

 

[Suntouchable13]

It would be Dermott's rights can be claimed in expansion. He is a restricted free agent after the end of this year. So Seattle could select him and sign him, or if they cannot agree on a deal, they can move the player. That is my understanding at least.

If what i believe is true, it would be hard for me to believe seattle would select Micheyev over a 24 year old budding D-Man. But that's just my opinion. In my mind, if we plan on keeping Dermott beyond this year, we will have to protect him. I am certainly not interested in giving up assets to Seattle in place of them selecting one player over another. Not 1 trade in that fashion worked out for the team in Vegas expansion (see Marchsault, Theodore, Karlson)

I wouldn't protect Dermott over Holl. If they take him, so be it. We have Lehtonen, we have Sandin, we have Lily.

 

[Twine Tickler]

my understanding is that if one has nmc or full NTC they are automatically protected. may be someone else can chime in

that was my interpretation as well, I just read otherwise on here. Which really means nothing I guess lol. But there is a lot of knowledge on that stuff on here so I just trusted it without checking myself haha

 

[BlueForever75]

Holl is becoming a great player for the Leafs. But his consistency lacks at times from game to game. He was so solid against Edmonton and McDavid. One of the main reasons McDavid was shut down. But last night against Vancouver 2 of the 3 goals were on him and letting his man beat him (one of them was a penalty that resulted in a goal).

I dont know if that was him being gassed or what. But he needs to work on his conditioning to become the horse he needs to be for us.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I wouldn't protect Dermott over Holl. If they take him, so be it. We have Lehtonen, we have Sandin, we have Lily.

I am not sure I would do that personally. I totally see your angle, but Holl has been our best overall defensemen this year IMO. I respect if people do not agree, but I cannot imagine he is outside of anyone's top 4 for best performing D-men this year. He is on a fantastic deal for 2 more seasons, which will really help mitigate the flat cap. I'd be more inclined to move out Muzz if possible. Again, I love Muzz, I just cannot see a situation where Sandy and Lilly are not full time leafs next year. And I really think Holl is ready to shoulder the Vet role on whatever pairing he is on. Whether thats will Derms or Sandy. It just would really suck to put all this time into Derms to see him get scooped for free. He is playing excellent IMO, and really just simplified his game to the perfect balance.

 

[LeafGrief]

If we're talking expansion draft, I think we're 100% protecting Holl and 4+4 this year. We don't have to sign Hyman until after the draft, so we only really need to protect the big 4 forwards. I'd much rather lose Kerfoot or Dermott than Holl. His level of play, with $2m for two additional years left on his contract, is too good to let go. Dermott is a good player, but Holl is just way more valuable.

 

[zeke]

I don't think Dubey will leave the expansion draft up to chance.

He will discuss with Seattle the players they may want and sweeten the pot as need be to make sure he keeps the players he wants.

 

[LeafGrief]

I don't think Dubey will leave the expansion draft up to chance.

He will discuss with Seattle the players they may want and sweeten the pot as need be to make sure he keeps the players he wants.

I don't think any GM leaves the expansion up to chance, even the garbage ones. Francis will be calling everyone up to make deals and see if people are willing to part with prospects like Theodore to keep their guys. For us, I think Dermott and Kerfoot (or even Engvall and Mikheyev) are expendable enough that it might not be worth what Francis is asking to take someone else. That said, if Francis will take a 3rd round pick to take Hutchinson instead of Mikheyev or Engvall then send him that 3rd.

 

[Buds17]

my understanding is that if one has nmc or full NTC they are automatically protected. may be someone else can chime in

Being claimed in an expansion draft would be a move but not a trade. NMCs require protection. NTCs do not.

 

[zeke]

I don't think any GM leaves the expansion up to chance, even the garbage ones. Francis will be calling everyone up to make deals and see if people are willing to part with prospects like Theodore to keep their guys. For us, I think Dermott and Kerfoot (or even Engvall and Mikheyev) are expendable enough that it might not be worth what Francis is asking to take someone else. That said, if Francis will take a 3rd round pick to take Hutchinson instead of Mikheyev or Engvall then send him that 3rd.

Yeah we're a good team that will lose a good player.

Dermott hits the sweet spot for both us and Seattle I think. Sucks to lose him but we're gonna lose something good - and he's probably not good enough for us to sacrifice a 1st or anything like that to keep him.

 

[Buds17]

I don't think Dubey will leave the expansion draft up to chance.

He will discuss with Seattle the players they may want and sweeten the pot as need be to make sure he keeps the players he wants.

I agree. Dubas will probably want to touch base with Seattle considering the Leafs figure to have a useful piece "available" both up front and on the blueline. Though not to the extent of VGK, I still think Seattle can be reasonably successful here as they can be enticed to select and avoid players.

 

[EC]

Holl won't be exposed. If anything. I say Kerfoot. he's been good this year but 3.5MM can go elsewhere. He's not playing centre. I'll let him go and bring up Robertson next year. Dermott, Holl, Mikheyev, Engvall are all cheaper options and are proving to be good players for the Leafs in their roles so they are too valuable to be expansion casualties

 

[Mickey Marner]

Unless Seattle wants Kerfoot, I think we trade with them. The price will be steep and it could backfire if Muzzin falls off a cliff, but we must protect our top-four.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Kerfoot to Seattle makes a lot of sense as well. Good player, Pacific Northwest guy, decent contract. We can definitely replace Kerf with existing pieces. I am not sure we would need to add much to have them take him, and its less of a potential risk as he is relatively capped out on potential in my opinion. Not sure what the price would be, but If it were outrageous I would tell Ronny to f*** off and take whoever he wants. Do not negotiate with terrorists lol. Almost every deal Vegas made during its expansion drastically worked in their favor. Not interested in being a part of that 2.0

 

[zeke]

tbh the guy i'm most worried about losing is Engvall. I think they'd scoop him right up at his price.

he's the guy Dubas needs to protect imo. Kerfoot and Dermott are more expendable considering contracts.

even worried they might scoop up Anderson.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Being claimed in an expansion draft would be a move but not a trade. NMCs require protection. NTCs do not.

my understanding is that if one has nmc or full NTC they are automatically protected. may be someone else can chime in

This is the official wording from NHL.com

So my guess is Muzz could go unprotected based on his deal moving from NMC to NTC after this season.

Now if thats the case:

Protect: Rielly, Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Matthews, Marner, Willy, JT, and Campbell.

Exempt: Micheyev (under 2nd year player), Envall?? (2nd year player)

which would leave only pending UFA's (Hyman, Andersen, BOGO, Spezz, Boyd, Jumbo and Simmer) unprotected. Albeit if selected by Seattle could return back to Toronto in UFA. Therefore we can all but say these act as "protected"

leaving really only Kerf and Muzz exposed. Both of which have decent AAV's and both of which have more than capable understudies. I also think that given those 2 would be exposed, Seattle would be more inclined to take Kerf as he is the cheaper, and younger option. Giving us a better shot at keeping all 5 of Rielly, Muzz, Brodie, Holl, and Derms. in contrast, if we protect Muzz in place of Derms, I would say Seattle more than likely would take Derms over Kerf.

So long story long, Protect Rielly, Brodie, Holl, Derms and hope kerf is selected over Muzz. Because Dermott has more potential upside than Kerf at this point, and Muzz is entering the back 9 of his career.

 

[Twine Tickler]

tbh the guy i'm most worried about losing is Engvall. I think they'd scoop him right up at his price.

he's the guy Dubas needs to protect imo. Kerfoot and Dermott are more expendable considering contracts.

even worried they might scoop up Anderson.

Aren't 2nd year NHL players exempt? this is Engvall's second year in the NHL, does his time with the Marlies come into play?

 

[zeke]

Aren't 2nd year NHL players exempt? this is Engvall's second year in the NHL, does his time with the Marlies come into play?

yeah some his north american ELC pro years count.

 

[Its not your fault]

I wouldn't protect Dermott over Holl. If they take him, so be it. We have Lehtonen, we have Sandin, we have Lily.

Then you deal Dermott.

 

[Buds17]

View attachment 403592
This is the official wording from NHL.com

So my guess is Muzz could go unprotected based on his deal moving from NMC to NTC after this season.

Now if thats the case:

Protect: Rielly, Brodie, Holl, Dermott, Matthews, Marner, Willy, JT, and Campbell.

Exempt: Micheyev (under 2nd year player), Envall?? (2nd year player)

which would leave only pending UFA's (Hyman, Andersen, BOGO, Spezz, Boyd, Jumbo and Simmer) unprotected. Albeit if selected by Seattle could return back to Toronto in UFA. Therefore we can all but say these act as "protected"

leaving really only Kerf and Muzz exposed. Both of which have decent AAV's and both of which have more than capable understudies. I also think that given those 2 would be exposed, Seattle would be more inclined to take Kerf as he is the cheaper, and younger option. Giving us a better shot at keeping all 5 of Rielly, Muzz, Brodie, Holl, and Derms. in contrast, if we protect Muzz in place of Derms, I would say Seattle more than likely would take Derms over Kerf.

So long story long, Protect Rielly, Brodie, Holl, Derms and hope kerf is selected over Muzz. Because Dermott has more potential upside than Kerf at this point, and Muzz is entering the back 9 of his career.

The Leafs could leave both Muzzin and Brodie unprotected due to expiring NMCs in their contracts. I think that's potentially a risky way to approach things though. If the intention is ultimately to steer Seattle towards selecting Kerfoot, then there can only really be one way of ensuring that happens. Hoping it isn't too costly if they do take that route.

 

[Twine Tickler]

The Leafs could leave both Muzzin and Brodie unprotected due to expiring NMCs in their contracts. I think that's potentially a risky way to approach things though. If the intention is ultimately to steer Seattle towards selecting Kerfoot, then there can only really be one way of ensuring that happens. Hoping it isn't too costly if they do take that route.

Its not that leaving Muzz unprotected would solely to make it more attractive for Seattle to take Kerf, I honestly think we have the organizational depth to accommodate either one of them leaving. When you factor in their contracts as well, and our need to resign Hyman, It just makes sense.

 

[zeke]

The Leafs could leave both Muzzin and Brodie unprotected due to expiring NMCs in their contracts. I think that's potentially a risky way to approach things though. If the intention is ultimately to steer Seattle towards selecting Kerfoot, then there can only really be one way of ensuring that happens. Hoping it isn't too costly if they do take that route.

whatever the cost is, if it costs more than the value of dermott, then you just let them have dermott.