John Tavares - Generational UFA

[Ainec]

*let's just say he doesn't pull a Stamkos

I made a list of the top free agents since Ilya Kovalchuk (when salary cap was 59.4M).

You pay for top tier elite talents like Kovalchuk, Suter, and Tavares. You stay away from Richards, Okposo, Lucic, Ladd, Eriksson, Beleskey (no hindsight to this). And you manage to sign Niskanen, Stralman, Green to reasonable contracts because stupid GMs spent their wad elsewhere. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that teams should throw out huge $ at quality free agents (unicorns, but here he is) and make it work to their benefit.

Tavares is a top 10 center. And if you really want to be in the minority on it, a top 15 C. Unlike the other top free agents on this list he is on the younger side of entering free agency. On top of that, he has little injury history and no character defect.

I roll my eyes at anyone implying they should not sign Tavares as a free agent because of cap implications and having holes elsewhere on the roster. Clueless! Pay the man 8x14M+ and celebrate if you get him for less.

2018 80M salary cap
Tavares

2017 75M
Kevn Shattenkirk 4 year 26.65m
Alexander Radulov 5 year 31.25m
Karl Alzner lol
Justin Williams

2016 73M
Kyle Okposo lol
David Backes lol
Milan Lucic lol
Andrew Ladd lol
Loui Eriksson lol

2015 71.4M
Mike Green 3 year 18M
Matt Beleskey lol
Mike Ribiero lol
Cody Franson lol

2014 69M
Matt Niskanen 7 year 40.25M
Ryan Miller 3 year 18M
Anton Stralman 5 year 22M

2013 64.3M
Paul Stastny 4 year 28M

2012 60-70.2M
Ryan Suter 13 year 98M
Zach Parise 13 year 98M

2011 64.3M
Brad Richards 9 year 60M

2010 59.4M salary cap
Ilya Kovalchuk 17 year 102M contract after turning down 12 year 101M from Atlanta

edit: adding Chara

one of the best UFA signing in history: Zdeno Chara
7.5M cap 44M cap ceiling with the Boston Bruins at the age of 29
prorates to
13.63M 80M cap ceiling for John Tavares at the age of 27​

Click to read more...

 

[Trap Jesus]

Is anyone really debating this? He's a very rare unrestricted free agent considering talent + age + the willingness to go to the open market (other young, talented players usually get locked up well before). People won't necessarily be happy paying the full price tag, but it's a necessary evil.

 

[Ainec]

Is anyone really debating this? He's a very rare unrestricted free agent considering talent + age + the willingness to go to the open market (other young, talented players usually get locked up well before). People won't necessarily be happy paying the full price tag, but it's a necessary evil.

I don't pop into Tavares threads much but on the few occasions that I did people were saying they would walk away at 12M. Which is unbelievably funny

Pop into the Carlson thread and you have people saying it's a horrible deal for the Caps. Like come on

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

I thought you were going to do a rough breakdown of cap for Tavares versus salary cap and identify something interesting, like Tavares would be way above or below some of the others. Alas...

Also, anyone else notice the Richards saga was 7 years ago? Where has the time gone?!

 

[bleedblue94]

are people forgetting stamkos made it to this same point and signed in tb at the 11th hour during the courting period just before he actually went ufa status so he could get the 8th year.

But yes, it is a rare situation w the quality and youth as a potential ufa

 

[Ainec]

I thought you were going to do a rough breakdown of cap for Tavares versus salary cap and identify something interesting, like Tavares would be way above or below some of the others. Alas...

Also, anyone else notice the Richards saga was 7 years ago? Where has the time gone?!

2012 60-70.2M
Ryan Suter 13 year 98M
Zach Parise 13 year 98M

would be the same as

2018 80M
John Tavares 13 year 130M (10M cap)

but Tavares is even more of a lottery win than Suter on July 1st

 

[Mickey Marner]

The Iles were a middling team with Tavares making 5.5M. Walking at 12M is probably a good idea. If his play slips even slightly that's a worse contract than Toews and Price.

 

[Ainec]

are people forgetting stamkos made it to this same point and signed in tb at the 11th hour during the courting period just before he actually went ufa status so he could get the 8th year...

he never made it to UFA? Lots of elite players make it to their June but not July 1st.

 

[Binary Code]

On UFA market, cap adjusted Tavares is probably worth 15M +

 

[Ainec]

The Iles were a middling team with Tavares making 5.5M. Walking at 12M is probably a good idea. If his play slips even slightly that's a worse contract than Toews and Price.

You can't compare a skater with a goaltender and Kane would be the better comparable in terms of point production. If your GM gets Kane at 10.5 without giving any asset you build him a statue

 

[Ainec]

Take 2 players here:
2016 73M
Kyle Okposo lol
David Backes lol
Milan Lucic lol
Andrew Ladd lol
Loui Eriksson lol

turn them into Tavares

b-but over 10m cap!

 

[bleedblue94]

he never made it to UFA? Lots of elite players make it to their June but not July 1st.

and taveras may not even make it to ufa if he still resigns with NYI for the 8th contract year. That's Lou's bargaining chip since he is still the only one that can offer the 8th year and he's said he won't trade JT's rights.

JT is not currently a ufa, he is a ufa on July 1. Same situation stammer was in when he resigned. We will see what happens...

 

[Ainec]

and taveras may not even make it to ufa if he still resigns with NYI for the 8th contract year. That's Lou's bargaining chip since he is still the only one that can offer the 8th year and he's said he won't trade JT's rights.

JT is not currently a ufa

this is a discussion board, there's 90 pages on the JT is talking to 5 teams thread

it's a few days from July 1st, yes there's a good chance he pulls a Stamkos but this is worth discussing and dispelling the notion that you can win by not entering the Tavares sweepstakes

 

[bleedblue94]

this is a discussion board, there's 90 pages on the JT is talking to 5 teams thread

it's a few days from July 1st, yes there's a good chance he pulls a Stamkos but this is worth discussing and dispelling the notion that you can win by not entering the Tavares sweepstakes

Your thread titles says this situation is unprecedented and I am just pointing out that is incorrect. This literally happened last year.

 

[Ainec]

Your thread titles says this situation is
unprecedented


I am just pointing out that is incorrect. This literally happened last year.

Why stop at Stamkos, there's Benn, Getzlaf, Perry etc not sure what you're trying to argue

 

[Mickey Marner]

You can't compare a skater with a goaltender and Kane would be the better comparable in terms of point production. If your GM gets Kane at 10.5 without giving any asset you build him a statue

Kane has been worth his 10.5M salary 2/3 years and he will be 30 this season. Kane has outscored Tavares by 51 points in those 3 seasons. For reference, Tavares has out-scored Josh Bailey by 61 points in those same seasons.

 

[sabresfan129103]

So what you're saying is stay away from JVR in FA.

 

[bleedblue94]

Why stop at Stamkos, there's Benn, Getzlaf, Perry etc not sure what you're trying to argue

HA, those other names you mentioned didn't get to the ufa courting period, so they are irrelevant.

The only thing I am saying is that this situation is not unprecedented as you claimed it to be. It literally just happened last year with stamkos along with all the same arguments pro and con. Just higher dollar amounts bc of cap growing. That's all.

 

[justafan22]

He's a future hall of famer who is on the market.

Hossa, and maybe Kovalchuk (though I think the 5 years away destroyed his chances) are the only two talents since Chara in 2006 that compare for hitting the market.

 

[rent free]

A team should only be interested in him if they need help at then 1 or 2 center position and can afford him long term.

 

[Ainec]

So what you're saying is stay away from JVR in FA.

yes sir, he's going to get 40m+ i think

 

[Ainec]

HA, those other names you mentioned didn't get to the ufa courting period, so they are irrelevant.

The only thing I am saying is that this situation is not unprecedented as you claimed it to be. It literally just happened last year with stamkos along with all the same arguments pro and con. Just higher dollar amounts bc of cap growing. That's all.

Stamkos didn't make it to July 1st. This is on the assumption that Tavares makes it there which would be unprecedented

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Tavares is overrated...never scored 40 goals and never had 90 points

anyone paying him 11+ mil is insane and will regret it down the line

 

[Ainec]

Tavares is overrated...never scored 40 goals and never had 90 points

anyone paying him 11+ mil is insane and will regret it down the line

Hey, the Oilers can still succeed with Lucic RNH and Strome - $15M-16.5M

I'm sure Tampa can do just fine with Tavares Gourde and J.T. Miller $17M

might have to pay a pick for a team to take Callahan

 

[SI90]

are people forgetting stamkos made it to this same point and signed in tb at the 11th hour during the courting period just before he actually went ufa status so he could get the 8th year.

But yes, it is a rare situation w the quality and youth as a potential ufa

Stamkos only met with TOR. Tavares has teams flying to LA setting up sales pitch meetings and presentations