Player Discussion John Carlson - Vol. 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'd be willing to go up to $8M max, but I'd try to negotiate around $7.5M

$7.5 has always been my number, but I’m not sure I’d quibble over another $500k

 

[RandyHolt]

No, RH. I didn't forget that Orlov could one time it from Ov. You want to turn the greatest goal scorer of his era into a guy setting up shots for Orlov?

Cut to the chase take 2. What's your walk number, and then whats your plan for the PP if he walks.

 

[Jags]

Cut to the chase take 2. What's your walk number, and then whats your plan for the PP if he walks.

Every indication is that he wants to be here and I think the organization has likely been convinced of his worth. I don't get the sense that he'd take a selfish position and fleece the team to its detriment.

I don't think it's as simple as a walkaway number. He either wants to be here or he doesn't. They'll likely offer him 8m, and he'll either take it or shop around. If he shops, is open to leaving, and likes the fit somewhere else, there's nothing we can really do.

What could we do without him?

• Green will likely want term, and I'm opposed to that unless the number is a fraction of what he's making now, so that doesn't feel like a realistic option.
  
  
• The free agent market for defensemen sucks, so that makes a trade our best option.
  
  
• If Carolina is really as high on Grubauer as rumored, maybe float the idea of a package with Burakovsky and picks to see if Faulk can be pried out of Raleigh. The Isles are also hot for Grubauer, but all they have is an aging Boychuk on a long contract.
  
  
• Insert other trade ideas here. There are a ton of guys around the league we might be able to get that would be serviceable replacements for most of what Carlson does for us. I specified Carolina because that have a real interest in Gruby and a D that would fit. So beyond that it's a total guessing game.
  
  
• Find a bandaid for this year and get in the mix for some of the big names that might be available next season. We're Cup winners now, so it might be okay to dream that we could land someone like EK or Doughty. I doubt we have the space or assets to trade for them, but if any hit the open market next year, who knows?

 

[txpd]

Cut to the chase take 2. What's your walk number, and then whats your plan for the PP if he walks.

I guess I don't have a walk number. Carlson reportedly has said he wants to stay and I think it gets done. If he leaves they are screwed and any plan would be a significant step backward. Orlov just isn't an option. My guess is they would use Niskanen as they have in the past. Bowey isn't an option. I am not sure he is even good enough to make the team. To plan on him on pp1 as the facilitator of their best source of goals is awful.

There may be a right shot defenseman that is solid on the pp that could be gotten. A Justin Fault perhaps. If he walks there are no good options. only bad and worse.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

$7.5 has always been my number, but I’m not sure I’d quibble over another $500k

$500k is not a lot when looking at the big picture. Ditch someone else if you need to. As much as I love a guy like DSP, he's probably gonna get overpaid big time for his playoff performance. Let someone else overpay.

 

[mad4comp]

Carlson will probably stay. Where else is he guaranteed top flight numbers with a chance at a another Stanley cup for the rest of his career? He probably sees what happened to Mike Green and will want to stay.

7 million is as high as I'd go, maybe even for 8 years, and if he wants to walk so be it. Bring up Bowey or like the other guys said, pry out Justin Faulk from the Canes or at worst bring in Green.

Ideally I'd like Carlson and Kempny back, but at worst you have to keep Kempny. a Top 4 of Niskanen/Orlov, Kempny/Bowey or Green is fine moving forward.

 

[RandyHolt]

When has any pending UFA said he has wanted to bolt?

New viewpoint. What else does he stand to attain here? He just got the cup, and his only competition for max free agency $$$ is Mike f***ing Green. He can almost name his price and team. While heavy backloading may get it done, heavy front and back loading may send him packing to go build a winner elsewhere. New challenges.

Here's another viewpoint. I don't think enough PPs are called in the playoffs to warrant worrying about Ovi less Carlson. Yes I realize the irony with a PPG last game. In the end, its lazy fat cat ES play, not glorious PP assist counts, that have me wondering what a safe number is for us. I am weary of any player racking up PPPs galore, let alone doing it by feeding THE premier goal scorer in the league, while a UFA.

 

[RVACapsFan]

Hypothetically, if the price to retain Carlson is too steep, what would it take to pry Karlsson from Ottawa? You’ll recall we had interest before the deadline.

Grubauer’s RFA rights + Burakovsky + how many picks?

Karlsson makes 6.5 AAV now and is a UFA after next season, at which point we could use the savings from Orpik coming off the books to keep him.

 

[Jags]

It just sounds to me like you're taking all the what-ifs a bit too far. It's fun to talk about, but if your reply to everything is "Yeah but..." then it all starts to get repetitive.

I mean, we started with a couple hypotheticals, but now you're following some of those scenarios to conclusions and getting spun up about it. Nothing has happened yet and all indicators suggest pretty strongly that it'll all work out. That's where we are.

"But they all SAY they want to stay and all there is is Mike f***ing Green on the market and JC's not even worth more than X amount and he's getting all these cupcake points on the PP and refs don't even call penalties in the playoffs and oh my god will this ever end and and and and and....."

It's all pure speculation at this point. We all basically agree on his general value and seem to have a good grasp on our options without him, so let's just see what happens next.

 

[hockeykicker]

in the means nothing category, carlson is sure having the time of his life with ovie and backstrom right now. looks like they never wanna separate

 

[Roughing]

Carly is staying. Give him the 8/64 and figure everything else out from there.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

So, I'm likely reading something into this that's not there, but in this video of Ovie's instagram live videos spliced together, he calls Carlson "the richest guy in the world". Big money extension already agreed?



Starts @9:18.

 

[895]

So, I'm likely reading something into this that's not there, but in this video of Ovie's instagram live videos spliced together, he calls Carlson "the richest guy in the world". Big money extension already agreed?



Starts @9:18.

This is kinda ominous actually..

Anything over 8x9 is a bad deal we should walk away from.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

So, I'm likely reading something into this that's not there, but in this video of Ovie's instagram live videos spliced together, he calls Carlson "the richest guy in the world". Big money extension already agreed?



Starts @9:18.

They look soooo hammered. Chiasson and Carlson are gone lmao.

 

[Calicaps]

This is kinda ominous actually..

Anything over 8x9 is a bad deal we should walk away from.

 

[Khrox]

If Carolina is really as high on Grubauer as rumored, maybe float the idea of a package with Burakovsky and picks to see if Faulk can be pried out of Raleigh. The Isles are also hot for Grubauer, but all they have is an aging Boychuk on a long contract.

• 
  
• Insert other trade ideas here. There are a ton of guys around the league we might be able to get that would be serviceable replacements for most of what Carlson does for us. I specified Carolina because that have a real interest in Gruby and a D that would fit. So beyond that it's a total guessing game.

Calgary may work. (Calgary fan, Washington has been my second team for about 12 years now. Became an Ovi fan the first time I saw him play Calgary, been following since). With Smith on his last year, and promising (but unproven, even in a back-up role) prospects, Gruby could get something from Calgary. Brodie doesn't have a great shot, but he is a solid passer. He is a left shot, but arguably plays better on the right side D, and is on a pretty good contract if Carlson walks (4.65 mil/year, with 2 years left). Not sure of Grubauer gets Brodie straight up, but Gruby+middle 6 forward/2nd round pick would probably get it done.

 

[Raikkonen]

Half a million of a difference? 200-250K after taxes? What would he do with the rest of his money to consider 200-250k a big difference?

At this point, Carlson is priority #1 and should be signed for anything from 7M to 8M.

If he wants more than 8 - man up and tell him to f*** off. I think negotiations should make it clear Kuzy's 7,8M is the max club can offer. End of story.

 

[txpd]

Brodie doesn't have a great shot, but he is a solid passer. He is a left shot, .

The left shot is a nonstarter.

 

[895]

Are there any notable big name UFAs who were un-signed this close to July 1 that ended up signing?

Feel kind of worried now. If I were Carlson, why wouldn't I wait 3 weeks to see what offers I get and ask the Caps the match?

 

[RandyHolt]

I heard guys on NHL XM talking as if they knew he would test the market July 1st.

 

[kicksavedave]

I heard guys on NHL XM talking as if they knew he would test the market July 1st.

Disagree. On July 1, he'll likely be in rehab sobering up from this bender

 

[hockeykicker]

Are there any notable big name UFAs who were un-signed this close to July 1 that ended up signing?

Feel kind of worried now. If I were Carlson, why wouldn't I wait 3 weeks to see what offers I get and ask the Caps the match?

dude they just won the cup lol give it a few days. there is 3 weeks til free agency

 

[hockeykicker]

remember stamkos signed june 29th, days before free agency

 

[Silky mitts]

I think Kuzys exact contract is perfect, 8 years 7.8M AAV.

 

[TheSting]

When has any pending UFA said he has wanted to bolt?

New viewpoint. What else does he stand to attain here? He just got the cup, and his only competition for max free agency $$$ is Mike ****ing Green. He can almost name his price and team. While heavy backloading may get it done, heavy front and back loading may send him packing to go build a winner elsewhere. New challenges.

Here's another viewpoint. I don't think enough PPs are called in the playoffs to warrant worrying about Ovi less Carlson. Yes I realize the irony with a PPG last game. In the end, its lazy fat cat ES play, not glorious PP assist counts, that have me wondering what a safe number is for us. I am weary of any player racking up PPPs galore, let alone doing it by feeding THE premier goal scorer in the league, while a UFA.

Bingo! Every free agent says "they wan't to stay" behind the mic. Carl is only 28, a prime age to hit free agency. He will only get this big payday opportunity to cash in one time at his primo age bracket. It's gonna come down to his agents, his family and inner circle blowing in his ear hole..."take all you can get now, hockey is a business" or "sign a lower market deal in the hopes of keeping the roster intact for another run or 2 at another cup.