Joe Thornton VS William Nylander

[Tmart335]

PP1
Matthews
Nylander Robertson
Rielly Marner

PP2
Tavares
Spezza Simmonds/Vesey
Lehtonen/Brodie Thornton (to be honest, I don't know if Joe has played the point on the PP, but his ability to pass...)

tavares is a beast in front of the net on the pp. think you have to have him on the first unit.

leafs have enough firepower , that they can still ice a nice second unit without Tavares

 

[SeaOfBlue]

PP1
Matthews
Nylander Robertson
Rielly Marner

PP2
Tavares
Spezza Simmonds/Vesey
Lehtonen/Brodie Thornton (to be honest, I don't know if Joe has played the point on the PP, but his ability to pass...)

Simmonds/Vesey should be the net front on the 2nd PP, and Tavares should be the net front on the 1st PP. Move Robertson to the 2nd unit.

 

[meefer]

Simmonds/Vesey should be the net front on the 2nd PP, and Tavares should be the net front on the 1st PP. Move Robertson to the 2nd unit.

PP1, Matthews has the best hands on the team. Deflections, rebounds, and the requirement of the other team having to dedicate a player to his presence presents a 4 v 3 over the rest of the ice. That's why I have him as the net presence on PP1. I'm curious how that would look.

PP2, Tavares is the same situation as I placed Matthews. I want our best hands in front of the net. It forces a more collapsed D awareness and opens up ice triangular attacks opening up good shot opportunities from the hashes.

I know who our best shooters are. They are also our most dangerous net front presences. I would like to see how this forces the opposition to adapt to covering that threat and how it affects the opening of the ice to our options. It may not work, but I'd like to see it tried.

 

[meefer]

tavares is a beast in front of the net on the pp. think you have to have him on the first unit.

leafs have enough firepower , that they can still ice a nice second unit without Tavares

Agreed. Maybe he'll be positioned there on the 1st unit. I think Matthews offers the same, if not better presence. Both offer exceptional hands for tip-ins, and can respond well to rebounds. Both force the D to pay greater attention to their net front presence, opening up ice for others. I have no idea if it would work, but I'd be interested to see if it has a cumulative positive affect.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Agreed. Maybe he'll be positioned there on the 1st unit. I think Matthews offers the same, if not better presence. Both offer exceptional hands for tip-ins, and can respond well to rebounds. Both force the D to pay greater attention to their net front presence, opening up ice for others. I have no idea if it would work, but I'd be interested to see if it has a cumulative positive affect.

I'm not sure you want your best shooter/best player standing in front of the net during a powerplay. You're placing him squarely in the house and making him easy to defend.
The goal of any team on the PK vs Toronto is to keep the puck away from Matthews. Putting him in the middle of the ice makes that a far simpler task. Play a tight box and allow them to move the puck around the outside.

 

[Dayjobdave]

The Leafs have so many pp weapons I hope they build three or more different rotations to keep opponents guessing and to play the hot hand.

Plus that would give us more to debate on here.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

PP1, Matthews has the best hands on the team. Deflections, rebounds, and the requirement of the other team having to dedicate a player to his presence presents a 4 v 3 over the rest of the ice. That's why I have him as the net presence on PP1. I'm curious how that would look.

PP2, Tavares is the same situation as I placed Matthews. I want our best hands in front of the net. It forces a more collapsed D awareness and opens up ice triangular attacks opening up good shot opportunities from the hashes.

I know who our best shooters are. They are also our most dangerous net front presences. I would like to see how this forces the opposition to adapt to covering that threat and how it affects the opening of the ice to our options. It may not work, but I'd like to see it tried.

He also has the best shot on the team, if not the entire NHL... They are not going to waste that in front of the net. Tavares and Nylander are both amazing in front of the net, so why would they put Matthews there?

Simmonds and Vesey are also used as net front guys on the PP. You can probably find better guys, including using both Brodie and Lehtonen, than putting them anywhere other than in front of the net.

 

[BAM]

June 1, 2015 Kyle Dubas hires director of sports science Jeremy Bettle.
quote: “In hiring Dr. Bettle, our sole objective is to be able to have our players know that as a program, we are doing everything we can in all aspects to optimize their performance and maximize their potential as a hockey player, regardless of what stage of their career they’re at.”

Mike Babcock on the way he’s managed Auston Matthews & John Tavares’ ice time: “We want to play as high tempo as we can… We believe and agree with our sports science guys that this is the best way to get it done”

Leafs Hire Director of Sports Science & Performance | Maple Leafs Hockey News and Discussion
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018...time-we-want-to-play-as-high-tempo-as-we-can/

Fastforward to 2021 Bettle name gone from the organization, and the department mostly dissolved.
Maple Leafs Management

Notice how Babcock chooses his words carefully. He says "We".

You're literally defending a guy who loves to blame everyone but himself.

Go look at any Babcock presser when the Leafs got eliminated. Has he ever said "it was my fault"? NEVER.

High-tempo and ice-time is one thing, giving equal ice-time to your worst forwards in comparison to your best is completely different.

Babcock also did the same thing in Detroit...I guess Dubas had his fingers on that too??

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You're probably right about Thornton playing 2C in a pinch over Nylander, but he certainly isn't going to play meaningful offensive situations ahead of him.

Nylander is going to score more goals than Thornton is going to get points. Maybe twice as many.

I have a feeling Thornton with some PP time could break 45 points so I hope you are right lol. Twice as many is a bit crazy though

 

[ottomaddox]

You're literally defending a guy who loves to blame everyone but himself.

Go look at any Babcock presser when the Leafs got eliminated. Has he ever said "it was my fault"? NEVER.

High-tempo and ice-time is one thing, giving equal ice-time to your worst forwards in comparison to your best is completely different.

Babcock also did the same thing in Detroit...I guess Dubas had his fingers on that too??

No. Babcock doesn't stand there and apologize for mistakes or losing. That's ok. Most pro coaches of his stature are the same.

Marleau's ice time was not the reason TOR was eliminated by Boston. Hyman was injured and it really put TOR in a jam. Dubas traded Linholm (a penalty killer) before the trade deadline for a useless Nic Petan. So yeah. Babs had to play some players he likely wouldn't in normal circumstances.

On the other hand Dubas seemed to over apologize for things that were out of his hands, and for things that he had control of.

Dubas has no fingers on Babcock winning a cup with Detroit, or going to the cup finals with Anaheim. At the present time Kyle Dubas is looking for a playoff birth with TOR.

 

[Joey Hoser]

I have a feeling Thornton with some PP time could break 45 points so I hope you are right lol. Twice as many is a bit crazy though

Not really crazy. Thornton's probably going to play 60-70 games on the third and fourth lines with maybe some 2nd PP time. I'd probably put his over/under at like 20 points.

 

[zeke]

After Babcock was fired, Keefe put willy on the top PP unit for the first time in his career.

He then immediately produced at a 42gl/77pt pace the rest of the season, and 1pt shy of ppg in the playoffs.

 

[Joey Hoser]

No. Babcock doesn't stand there and apologize for mistakes or losing. That's ok. Most pro coaches of his stature are the same.

Marleau's ice time was not the reason TOR was eliminated by Boston. Hyman was injured and it really put TOR in a jam. Dubas traded Linholm (a penalty killer) before the trade deadline for a useless Nic Petan. So yeah. Babs had to play some players he likely wouldn't in normal circumstances.

Babcock played Marleau and an injured Hyman in life-or-death minutes against Boston in game 7 instead of guys like Tavares and Matthews and you're pointing the blame at Lindholm, Petan and the GM?

Seriously?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Not really crazy. Thornton's probably going to play 60-70 games on the third and fourth lines with maybe some 2nd PP time. I'd probably put his over/under at like 20 points.

20 points would definitely be below what I am expecting purely because of how good a passer Joe still is. Will be interesting to see, especially with the shorter season which may help old guys who don't have to play as many games

 

[zeke]

Spezza the 2 years before coming to the Leafs produced at a 16pt pace at ES on a weak offensive Dallas team. He then bounced back to a 26pt pace at ES with the Leafs, despite a drop in ice time. He was also around a 10pt pace on the PP on the 2nd unit on both teams.

Thornton produced at a 27pt pace at ES last year on a bad SJ team and a 40pt pace the year before on a decent one. He also was around a 10pt pace on the 2nd PP unit. If he sees a similar ES bounceback with the leafs as Spezza did, then you're looking at around a 35-40pt pace at ES, plus another 10 on the 2nd PP unit.

No guarantee that happens, but its a solid possibility.

 

[meefer]

I'm not sure you want your best shooter/best player standing in front of the net during a powerplay. You're placing him squarely in the house and making him easy to defend.
The goal of any team on the PK vs Toronto is to keep the puck away from Matthews. Putting him in the middle of the ice makes that a far simpler task. Play a tight box and allow them to move the puck around the outside.

I appreciate the input, thanks. I suppose it's really a numbers game, to which I don't have the numbers. We are, however, familiar with the defensive PK structures that teams employ when Matty is held further outside the house. His shot is lethal, agreed. I'm simply curious to see how teams would adapt to his net presence. I suspect they'd have to collapse or isolate one player to offset his danger in that position. If that is their response, does the increase in open ice favor us vs a more traditional PP arrangement?

 

[meefer]

He also has the best shot on the team, if not the entire NHL... They are not going to waste that in front of the net. Tavares and Nylander are both amazing in front of the net, so why would they put Matthews there?

Simmonds and Vesey are also used as net front guys on the PP. You can probably find better guys, including using both Brodie and Lehtonen, than putting them anywhere other than in front of the net.

Please see my post #91

 

[ottomaddox]

Babcock played Marleau and an injured Hyman in life-or-death minutes against Boston in game 7 instead of guys like Tavares and Matthews and you're pointing the blame at Lindholm, Petan and the GM?

Seriously?

No. There was all sorts of blame to go around. Also toronto was not as good as Boston.

 

[Coachcorner]

I've been thinkin everybody who saying Johnny Tavares ain't on our first powerplay unit.... is wrong. Fully wrong.

The man takes faceoffs and just has it all. Not many has it all, he has. He is also our Captain, so forget about it.

 

[notDatsyuk]

PP1
Matthews
Nylander Robertson
Rielly Marner

PP2
Tavares
Spezza Simmonds/Vesey
Lehtonen/Brodie Thornton (to be honest, I don't know if Joe has played the point on the PP, but his ability to pass...)

...is easily negated by his slowness, which would be a huge handicap when the other team gets the puck.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Not really crazy. Thornton's probably going to play 60-70 games on the third and fourth lines with maybe some 2nd PP time. I'd probably put his over/under at like 20 points.

Last year Joe aveagd 0.44 ppg, while Willie averaged 0.87. With Joe fading and Willie improving, double doesn't sound unreasonable.

 

[cookie]

Nylander isn’t the traditional net front guy we’re accustomed to. It isn’t to say he isn’t getting work done but he’s not some hard to move big body that actively obscures goaltenders’ view or tip point shots. And he doesn’t have to be. Just like how basketball strategy has moved centers away from under the room to provide better floor spacing, the Leafs are also running a non-traditional power play like many other teams. Point shots are rarely used but instead the focus is on puck movement, especially from the half boards to the slot. From what my eye test is seeing, Willy cleans up the organized chaos both Matthews and Tavares cause. And he’s real good at it. The constant movement seems to be helpful in providing alternatives to the puck carrier and Willy does have the sense to skate by the goalie’s line of sight when the situation calls for it.

Given the respect Matthews gets, one strategy might see the leafs play a guy like Nylander or Spezza on the opposite wall to compensate for their relatively slower but lethal shots. This could open up the bumper play and the middle of the slot, which was something the Blue Jackets were doing in their series (and something teams do in a panic).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I appreciate the input, thanks. I suppose it's really a numbers game, to which I don't have the numbers. We are, however, familiar with the defensive PK structures that teams employ when Matty is held further outside the house. His shot is lethal, agreed. I'm simply curious to see how teams would adapt to his net presence. I suspect they'd have to collapse or isolate one player to offset his danger in that position. If that is their response, does the increase in open ice favor us vs a more traditional PP arrangement?

If Toronto can't get the puck to the outside shooter(Matthews) then that is on them. They are far too talented a group to not figure it out. Tampa Bay continues to get the puck to Stamkos on the outside when he's playing(and not injured) and Washington continues to find Ovechkin on the outside.

By putting Matthews on the outside it forces the team to play a more relaxed box which should open up the middle of the ice for Tavares/Marner/Nylander. Here's the kicker, you can't be stagnant. The Leaf's biggest issue on their powerplay is they allowed teams to keep them to the outside by standing still. Teams ran aggressive penalty kills against Toronto. If Toronto was moving, this would be a dream. Instead they were standing still and it became a nightmare for the PP. Which is why that heavily loaded first PP struggled for good parts of the year. It's like the 4 of them believed the hype that they were going to be unstoppable...And they were out to prove the media wrong.

 

[BAM]

No. There was all sorts of blame to go around. Also toronto was not as good as Boston.

A healthy Leaf team without Kadri getting suspended was better than the Bruins

It took Kadri being suspended from game 2 onwards for the Bruins to even win a game 7.

Kadri eliminated the biggest advantage that the Leafs had.

The Bruins had no answer for Matthews, Tavares AND Kadri.

Bergeron line can only shut one down, leaving Krejci and a shit 3rd line to matchup against Tavares-Marner and the Kadri 3rd line.

 

[ottomaddox]

A healthy Leaf team without Kadri getting suspended was better than the Bruins

It took Kadri being suspended from game 2 onwards for the Bruins to even win a game 7.

Kadri eliminated the biggest advantage that the Leafs had.

The Bruins had no answer for Matthews, Tavares AND Kadri.

Bergeron line can only shut one down, leaving Krejci and a shit 3rd line to matchup against Tavares-Marner and the Kadri 3rd line.

I disagree. We still can't be certain that with Kadri around we get past Boston. Tukka Rask was playing amazing for BOS (0.934 in 24 playoff games). It's possible, but not certain.