Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)

[Foppa2118]

Honestly, I have no interest in arguing about this. Just wait and see

Ok I'll wait for this Westworld-NHL merger you're predicting is right around the corner. Should be interesting.

 

[Pokecheque]

I will say this—analytics or no analytics—trying to add to your core via free agency almost never works. You always overpay and almost never get that player’s prime years. That’s why it never, ever worked for the Rangers, and I think the signing of Tavares will be looked upon as a mistake years from now. The only ones I think that worked were Hossa in Chicago (helped by a MASSIVELY cap-circumventing contract and relatively cheap deals for their core players) and the ultimate FA signing of all time in any sport: Zdeno Chara. No one could’ve predicted he would’ve played for so long at a prime level well past his thirties, but he did.

That might be one thing Sakic learned from Lacroix—he never went big in free agency. He built the core via the draft and only augmented it through trades. I think that’s a huge difference, especially when trying to manage the cap.

 

[Foppa2118]

That’s the problem with the “whiz kid” argument, whether it’s for or against analytics. They always get seen as a “test case” for the science, that debate’s already over and has been for years. People are waiting and hoping Dubas ultimately fails because that will somehow be an indictment of analytics. A bunch of his worst decisions were ones that ran counter to what the numbers say. But that’s fine, some on here will never be convinced and I’m not interested in convincing them.

It wouldn't be an indictment on analytics because like I said, all the teams believe in analytics now.

The "whiz kid" argument is about how Dubas over relied on analytics for most of his tenure to build the team they have now, at the expense of old school hockey knowledge about team building and chemistry.

It doesn't matter that he brought in some players that supposedly ran counter to the numbers recently, the damage was already done. That's why Shannahan correctly identified they lacked killer instinct. Because he like Sakic knows what a good team looks like and how it meshes together.

What they have now is an EA sports teams that just looks good on paper but doesn't play as a team. Holding each other accountable and playing for each other.

 

[Pokecheque]

It wouldn't be an indictment on analytics because like I said, all the teams believe in analytics now.

The "whiz kid" argument is about how Dubas over relied on analytics for most of his tenure to build the team they have now, at the expense of old school hockey knowledge about team building and chemistry.

It doesn't matter that he brought in some players that supposedly ran counter to the numbers recently, the damage was already done. That's why Shannahan correctly identified they lacked killer instinct. Because he like Sakic knows what a good team looks like and how it meshes together.

What they have now is an EA sports teams that just looks good on paper but doesn't play as a team. Holding each other accountable and playing for each other.

I guess I need to ask the question as to what specific moves were made that were strictly analytics-based. And if you list the Barrie deal I’m not convinced that was one of them. Don’t listen to what all the analytics folks who have no connection to the team say about Kerfoot, it was just a good old fashioned hockey trade that didn’t work out for the Leafs (and right now, it ain’t working out for the Avs either).

What other moves did Dubas make that were all about the analytics?

 

[Pokecheque]

BTW I’m not convinced at all that Shanahan twisted Dubas’s arm to snag a bunch of old vets, Friedman implied very strongly that getting players with an “edge” was all the “Whiz Kid’s” idea.

I’ll probably have a long post later that lists where I think the Leafs went wrong. It’s a pretty long list.

 

[Foppa2118]

I guess I need to ask the question as to what specific moves were made that were strictly analytics-based. And if you list the Barrie deal I’m not convinced that was one of them. Don’t listen to what all the analytics folks who have no connection to the team say about Kerfoot, it was just a good old fashioned hockey trade that didn’t work out for the Leafs (and right now, it ain’t working out for the Avs either).

What other moves did Dubas make that were all about the analytics?

It's mainly the idea that they have a core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly surrounded with guys like Kerfoot, Galchenyuk, Spezza, etc. There's just too many guys like that.

Even when the smaller soft players like Kerfoot and Nylander are playing well there's too many other guys not playing well and I bet nobody feels that comfortable going up to the darlings on the team like Matthews and Marner to hold them accountable and tell them they need to get their shit together.

I've also always felt that Reilly is overrated as a complete defenseman. I just don't like their blueline all together. It's always been a problem for them.

Toronto is kind of the epitome of the discussion I had earlier this season (maybe with you I think I can't remember) about how skating the puck out of the zone isn't really representative of defensive ability. Defending when you don't have the puck. This has always been a problem for Toronto.

I can see it because it reminds me of those Roy era Avalanche teams that had a similar problem, albeit for a different reason with different style defenseman. But both teams in general were just too top heavy with forwards and not enough good defenseman that know how to defend properly when they don't have the puck.

My critique isn't so much about the players being analytic darlings. It's that they built a team with a poor team culture and adding a few Foligno's and Tavares hasn't been enough to change that. The culture is rooted into the team to prop up the superstars in Toronto, so when the superstars fail, not enough of the others are prepared to step up.

 

[Nihiliste]

Ok I'll wait for this Westworld-NHL merger you're predicting is right around the corner. Should be interesting.

20-25 years is a long time, but well within most of our lifetimes
People joked about something as simple as possession analytics just a few years ago; meanwhile we're doing incredible research in neuroscience and AI daily that will change every single field within our lifetimes.

 

[Foppa2118]

20-25 years is a long time, but well within most of our lifetimes
People joked about something as simple as possession analytics just a few years ago; meanwhile we're doing incredible research in neuroscience and AI daily that will change every single field within our lifetimes.

I don't see that being applied to sports (especially hockey with all its emotions) the same way it will be applied to other areas of life.

You might as well just run a sim every season to see who the Cup winner is at that point. Have everyone gather in the arena and watch the jumbotron do the calculations to tell you who won.

I do think many other areas of life and especially the work force will change drastically in that time though for the reasons you mentioned.

 

[Nihiliste]

I don't see that being applied to sports the same way it will be applied to other areas of life.

You might as well just run a sim every season to see who the Cup winner is at that point. Have everyone gather in the arena and watch the jumbotron do the calculations to tell you who won.

I do think many other areas of life and especially the work force will change drastically in that time though for the reasons you mentioned.

People will still be interested in seeing humans stretch their physicality to the limit but roster construction, drafting, and strategy will be conducted based on statistical models to a much greater degree.

Sports are already just a weighted RNG that people apply narratives to though. You may be right that people lose interest in the product once that curtain is pulled back.

 

[Foppa2118]

People will still be interested in seeing humans stretch their physicality to the limit but roster construction, drafting, and strategy will be conducted based on statistical models to a much greater degree.

To a greater degree I think you're right, but I don't think NHL teams will be modeling out every aspect of every players brain like you originally alluded to in 20 years or so.

That kind of thing will cost a fortune and require an insane amount of data and player testing first of all, and will be reserved for certain aspects of life, and will probably be very faulty and unreliable for quite a while before its made more accurate.

 

[Pokecheque]

This was in posted by someone in response to Pierre railing on about analytics again saying you couldn’t quantify what Casey Cizikas brings but, um…yeah you can. Quite literally.

 

[Pokecheque]

It's mainly the idea that they have a core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Reilly surrounded with guys like Kerfoot, Galchenyuk, Spezza, etc. There's just too many guys like that.

Even when the smaller soft players like Kerfoot and Nylander are playing well there's too many other guys not playing well and I bet nobody feels that comfortable going up to the darlings on the team like Matthews and Marner to hold them accountable and tell them they need to get their shit together.

I've also always felt that Reilly is overrated as a complete defenseman. I just don't like their blueline all together. It's always been a problem for them.

Toronto is kind of the epitome of the discussion I had earlier this season (maybe with you I think I can't remember) about how skating the puck out of the zone isn't really representative of defensive ability. Defending when you don't have the puck. This has always been a problem for Toronto.

I can see it because it reminds me of those Roy era Avalanche teams that had a similar problem, albeit for a different reason with different style defenseman. But both teams in general were just too top heavy with forwards and not enough good defenseman that know how to defend properly when they don't have the puck.

My critique isn't so much about the players being analytic darlings. It's that they built a team with a poor team culture and adding a few Foligno's and Tavares hasn't been enough to change that. The culture is rooted into the team to prop up the superstars in Toronto, so when the superstars fail, not enough of the others are prepared to step up.

It may be that they just built around the wrong players. Avs found that out the hard way before 2017. Nothing analytics or otherwise gonna save you from that. You can only assemble that core and hope it’s the right one as you build around it.

But I agree that they needed more than Rielly. Muzzin, Holl, and Brodie aren’t terrible by any means but Dermott not developing as hoped really threw a wrench into things.

We’ll see if they figure it out. They got one, two seasons to fix things before I’m guessing they make major changes at the top.

 

[Foppa2118]

This was in posted by someone in response to Pierre railing on about analytics again saying you couldn’t quantify what Casey Cizikas brings but, um…yeah you can. Quite literally.

This is much easier if you're just looking at your own team like it sounds like Parnas is referring to, because you have a baseline and multiple seasons worth of samples compare it to.

In that situation you can rely almost entirely on the numbers, because you already know your own players very well.

When you're talking about bringing in UFA's from other teams, or making trades, or looking at players in Europe you're introducing a ton of new variables that can mislead you into thinking the numbers they have playing for a certain coach, with a certain system, in a certain role, with a certain amount of depth or lack of depth on the team, is going to be the same on your team. It might or it might not.

You can cut down on that variance tremendously by adding to the numbers with the old fashioned way of talking to the player himself if you can, or those around him that watched him daily and knew him best, and watching video of how he performed in certain environments like pressure situations that are inherently going to have very small sample sizes that probably won't impact the overall numbers very much.

That's also a very vague statement he made that's basically just saying better players have better numbers. It's more of an answer to why analytics are helpful, which hopefully I've been clear on, I agree with.

 

[Foppa2118]

It may be that they just built around the wrong players. Avs found that out the hard way before 2017. Nothing analytics or otherwise gonna save you from that. You can only assemble that core and hope it’s the right one as you build around it.

But I agree that they needed more than Rielly. Muzzin, Holl, and Brodie aren’t terrible by any means but Dermott not developing as hoped really threw a wrench into things.

We’ll see if they figure it out. They got one, two seasons to fix things before I’m guessing they make major changes at the top.

Yeah the Avs definitely suffered from similar problems, just for different reasons than analytics.

Relying on Duchene for so long as the 1C is a perfect example. Some may think it was a coincidence that the team and MacKinnon himself turned things around almost the game after Duchene was traded, but I don't think that was a coincidence at all.

I'd also argue that sticking with Barrie would have been a similar mistake. Not that Barrie had the same chemistry/personalty issues in the locker room that Duchene had, or that he can't fit onto a Cup team, but the way the Avs were built at the time, he just wasn't good enough defensively to keep and give a big contract too.

This would have prevented them from bringing in a defenseman like Toews who's better defensively, and kept the blueline too one dimesnionsal.

 

[Pistache]

Sakic did good, not great. The reason? He is the only one who sees something special in Bednar. This guy does not have NHL level. He can’t pass the second round with this roster. The role of a coach is to prepare his players for the most important games and this guy fail every time the last two years (maybe three….hope not). He can’t change his strategy during playoffs to adjust to the opponent. No tactics to prevent falling in the classic trap. I hope I am wrong and they will win tonight….if not…he is the first one to go next week.

 

[Nihiliste]

The trade deadline was clearly a disaster. Sakic had information on the health of our players and brought in two guys that absolutely don’t help the team. Huge black mark

 

[AnimalMother73]

Bednar was not a bad choice given his success at the lower levels. However his inability to in game adjust and/or get past the 2nd round with this roster is concerning.

 

[Islay1989]

Are people for real with this crap about Bednar? Lost to favoured Sharks and Preds, lost to Dallas taking them to game 7 with Michael f***ing Hutchinson between the pipes and now lost a #2C for the entire 2nd round because Kadri is a f***ing moron. Honestly, some takes are so bad they border on drivel.

 

[Pokecheque]

One thing's for sure, Sakic can no longer hold off on addressing the 3rd line center option, nor can he mess around with goaltending depth--both HAVE to be addressed this offseason regardless of what happens in this series. No more interim measures or waiting to see if Compher or Jost fill the void. We know now those two cannot, and something else has to be done.

 

[nammerus]

One thing's for sure, Sakic can no longer hold off on addressing the 3rd line center option, nor can he mess around with goaltending depth--both HAVE to be addressed this offseason regardless of what happens in this series. No more interim measures or waiting to see if Compher or Jost fill the void. We know now those two cannot, and something else has to be done.

Add a 2C as well.

Pretty crazy that Sakic and co. have let this position fester for so long, especially with the team smack dab in the middle of their contention window.

 

[Nihiliste]

Does Joe have the balls to be as creative and aggressive as JBB? Stay tuned and we’ll find out

 

[Pokecheque]

Add a 2C as well.

Pretty crazy that Sakic and co. have let this position fester for so long, especially with the team smack dab in the middle of their contention window.

To be fair, he addressed the 2C issue by trading for Kadri, and at least in the first year, both in regular and postseason, that was an adequate solution. Unfortunately it was not this season, though let's not forget that the Burke/Saad/Kadri line carried the team while the top line struggled to figure shit out to begin the season.

Also, Jost was an adequate, though not great, 3C during the regular season. I suppose I can't necessarily bust him for not addressing that this season, but there is NO excuse now.

I'm really not sure what they're doing for 2C, at the very least they need to get a center who is either a decent 2C or a good (not just adequate) 3C, and hope that Newhook can and will transition to the center position over the course of next year. Of course...if the Avs pull off a big trade for a center it might be one of those guys going the other way.

 

[Iceberg]

Are people for real with this crap about Bednar? Lost to favoured Sharks and Preds, lost to Dallas taking them to game 7 with Michael f***ing Hutchinson between the pipes and now lost a #2C for the entire 2nd round because Kadri is a f***ing moron. Honestly, some takes are so bad they border on drivel.

I agree that people are going way over board with this criticism of Bednar. He has done a great job getting this team to where it is right now. Definitly the better coaching work we've seen since the glory days.

Having said that, it's pretty obvious that Vegas looks a lot more prepared for the playoffs. Bednar has been outcoached by DeBoer in this series, and it's concerning the way we lost this last one, with silly mistakes been made at key moments (and it happenend last year in game 7 too).

We are still a young team overall, specially on D, but those kind of mistakes shouldn't happen and it falls on him, imo.

 

[Islay1989]

I agree that people are going way over board with this criticism of Bednar. He has done a great job getting this team to where it is right now. Definitly the better coaching work we've seen since the glory days.

Having said that, it's pretty obvious that Vegas looks a lot more prepared for the playoffs. Bednar has been outcoached by DeBoer in this series, and it's concerning the way we lost this last one, with silly mistakes been made at key moments (and it happenend last year in game 7 too).

We are still a young team overall, specially on D, but those kind of mistakes shouldn't happen and it falls on him, imo.

I will give you lineup decisions and agree with that. As for mental mistakes, a coach can only do so much. Can't cure stupid.

 

[Iceberg]

I will give you lineup decisions and agree with that. As for mental mistakes, a coach can only do so much. Can't cure stupid.

I don't know, Graves has been pulling that crap all season and we all know that Bednar gives his defenders the green light to be agressive.