Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part III (Updates in First Post)

[Hasbro]

You don't want to see it. Especially the defense.

2015-16 Colorado Avalanche Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Talking about the scouts.

 

[Foppa2118]

Talking about the scouts.

Not sure on Roy's last year, they added some guys the off season he left. Since Bednar's first year, they've basically just replaced their European scouts Anders Carlsson and Anton Edlund with Alexei Gusarov and Henrik Gradin.

Not sure how much experience Goose has as a scout, but that might be why they haven't placed as much value in Europe lately.

Roy helped improve the scouting staff a lot in his tenure too though.

This is from October 2016 after Roy left.

• Alan Hepple - Director of Amateur Scouting - Based in Ontario Canada
• Joni Lehto - Head, European Scouting - Europe - Based in Finland
• Anders Carlsson - Scout - Europe - Based in Sweden - European Pro and Junior
• Anton Edlund - Scout - Europe - Based in Sweden - European Pro and Junior
• Jerome Mesonero - Scout - Quebec - QMJHL
• Don Paarup - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL
• Norm Robert - Scout - Ontario Canada - OHL
• Neil Shea - Scout - Northeastern US - Based in Boston - NCAA, High School
• John Funk - Scout - Midwestern US - Based in Minnesota - NCAA, High School
• Lyle Wingert - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL
• Wade Klippenstein - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL

This is what it is now.

• Alan Hepple - Director of Amateur Scouting - Based in Ontario Canada
• Joni Lehto - Head, European Scouting - Europe - Based in Finland
• Alexei Gusarov - Scout - Europe
• Henrik Gradin - Scout - Europe
• Jerome Mesonero - Scout - Quebec - QMJHL
• Don Paarup - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL
• Norm Robert - Scout - Ontario Canada - OHL
• Neil Shea - Scout - Northeastern US - Based in Boston - NCAA, High School
• John Funk - Scout - Midwestern US - Based in Minnesota - NCAA, High School
• Lyle Wingert - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL
• Wade Klippenstein - Scout - Western Canada - WHL, BCHL

Joe Sakic & Co - Record with Colorado Avalanche

 

[expatriatedtexan]

How is this Roy's staff and not Sakic's? Did we have two different teams back then?

 

[Foppa2118]

I think we can see the difference between a GM like Dubas who Toronto thought was some sort of wiz kid because he thinks analytics is the answer to everything, and a GM like Sakic who appreciates analytics but not at the expense of building a well rounded team with intangibles that can compete in the playoffs.

Both teams are built around puck possession, but as a result of Dubas' approach we see a soft team in Toronto that gets outcompeted when the games get tough, and isn’t good enough defensively, especially on the blueline, to keep the puck out of the net.

And we see a power house team in Colorado that should be able to compete in the playoffs for a long time, because their core guys have the high end compete level to match their high end skill, and the willingness to put as much effort into back checking and defensive play as they do offense.

 

[Hasbro]

I think we can see the difference between a GM like Dubas who Toronto thought was some sort of wiz kid because he thinks analytics is the answer to everything.

 

[Pokecheque]

I think we can see the difference between a GM like Dubas who Toronto thought was some sort of wiz kid because he thinks analytics is the answer to everything, and a GM like Sakic who appreciates analytics but not at the expense of building a well rounded team with intangibles that can compete in the playoffs.

Both teams are built around puck possession, but as a result of Dubas' approach we see a soft team in Toronto that gets outcompeted when the games get tough, and isn’t good enough defensively, especially on the blueline, to keep the puck out of the net.

And we see a power house team in Colorado that should be able to compete in the playoffs for a long time, because their core guys have the high end compete level to match their high end skill, and the willingness to put as much effort into back checking and defensive play as they do offense.

Here’s the thing: Dubas actually proved that analytics DO work in the most ironic way possible—he went away from them this last offseason and frankly I think it cost him dearly. He gets pegged as the analytics poster boy but this season has proved to me that he’s more of an old school Hockey Guy than anyone could have guessed.

Yes, some of the more recent pickups (Muzzin, Brodie) were analytics-driven. But a few others (Thornton, Simmonds, Foligno) were absolutely the “hockey men” types of acquisitions that everyone said Dubas needed to do in the first place. And in the case of Foligno and Simmonds you’re not just getting those guys for defensive play, you’re getting them to bring an edge.

The Leafs were not too soft, IMO they were too slow, and because of their top-heavy cap structure, didn’t have enough depth when it mattered the most. Tavares went down, Marner and Matthews disappeared (and it’s clear Matthews was playing hurt), and that left Willie Nylander to supply ALL the offense. Chasing “toughness” and “veteran leadership” almost always leads to ruin. The Avs learned that a few years back and they haven’t really bothered with it since.

The Avs, despite having a far smaller analytics department than Toronto, did the analytics thing better than the Leafs and they dared to challenge the notion of having too much skill in a lineup. They already had Girard and Makar, and still went and got Toews.

 

[Foppa2118]

Here’s the thing: Dubas actually proved that analytics DO work in the most ironic way possible—he went away from them this last offseason and frankly I think it cost him dearly. He gets pegged as the analytics poster boy but this season has proved to me that he’s more of an old school Hockey Guy than anyone could have guessed.

Yes, some of the more recent pickups (Muzzin, Brodie) were analytics-driven. But a few others (Thornton, Simmonds, Foligno) were absolutely the “hockey men” types of acquisitions that everyone said Dubas needed to do in the first place. And in the case of Foligno and Simmonds you’re not just getting those guys for defensive play, you’re getting them to bring an edge.

The Leafs were not too soft, IMO they were too slow, and because of their top-heavy cap structure, didn’t have enough depth when it mattered the most. Tavares went down, Marner and Matthews disappeared (and it’s clear Matthews was playing hurt), and that left Willie Nylander to supply ALL the offense. Chasing “toughness” and “veteran leadership” almost always leads to ruin. The Avs learned that a few years back and they haven’t really bothered with it since.

The Avs, despite having a far smaller analytics department than Toronto, did the analytics thing better than the Leafs and they dared to challenge the notion of having too much skill in a lineup. They already had Girard and Makar, and still went and got Toews.

As I mentioned, Sakic appreciates analytics too, he just knows what kind of players (personalities, character, two way play, grit, compete level, ability to perform under pressure, leadership) is necessary to build a winning team.

Marner is definitely too soft and Matthews despite getting his chances, didn't battle through the checking enough to finish them off. The only answer for players that talented not being able to score goals is that they couldn't perform under the pressure and/or they didn't bear down enough and bury their chances.

The difference with the Avs core is that MacKinnon, Mikko, Landy, and Makar have consistently shown they can perform under pressure and produce. And they all have enough grit to compete against physical teams. Dubas seemed to think that the talent alone from guys like Marner would be enough against a team like Montreal who led the league in hits/game.

The other difference is on the blueline. Just like the forwards it's mainly built with puck possession in mind. But Toronto's blueline isn't that good defensively. The Avs is. Their skill guys like Makar, Byram, Toews, and Girard are all good defensively. Toronto's defenseman are similarly built around a skill/possession game, but aren't as good defensively outside of Muzzin.

The end result is Dubas built a much more one dimensional team that doesn't compete or defend as well when the games get tough, and Sakic build a very well rounded group who pretty much all compete and defend well at every position.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

As I mentioned, Sakic appreciates analytics too, he just knows what kind of players (personalities, character, two way play, grit, compete level, ability to perform under pressure, leadership) is necessary to build a winning team.

Marner is definitely too soft and Matthews despite getting his chances, didn't battle through the checking enough to finish them off. The only answer for players that talented not being able to score goals is that they couldn't perform under the pressure and/or they didn't bear down enough and bury their chances.

The difference with the Avs core is that MacKinnon, Mikko, Landy, and Makar have consistently shown they can perform under pressure and produce. And they all have enough grit to compete against physical teams. Dubas seemed to think that the talent alone from guys like Marner would be enough against a team like Montreal who led the league in hits/game.

The other difference is on the blueline. Just like the forwards it's mainly built with puck possession in mind. But Toronto's blueline isn't that good defensively. The Avs is. Their skill guys like Makar, Byram, Toews, and Girard are all good defensively. Toronto's defenseman are similarly built around a skill/possession game, but aren't as good defensively outside of Muzzin.

The end result is Dubas built a much more one dimensional team that doesn't compete or defend as well when the games get tough, and Sakic build a very well rounded group who pretty much all compete and defend well at every position.

I don’t think Marner is soft tbh. I think he’s got a major nerves problem.

He just doesn’t seem to make the right plays, or execute like he can in the regular season. The effort is there imo and you could see how devastated he was with losing. I think the issue with him in the playoffs is between the ears.

 

[flyfysher]

I don’t think Marner is soft tbh. I think he’s got a major nerves problem.

He just doesn’t seem to make the right plays, or execute like he can in the regular season. The effort is there imo and you could see how devastated he was with losing. I think the issue with him in the playoffs is between the ears.

Certain players elevate their game in the POs. Saad and Burakovsky are a couple. Even though Burakovsky hasn’t really broken out yet, he was a PO performer in Washington. I’d rather have Burakovsky than Marner on my team in the POs.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Certain players elevate their game in the POs. Saad and Burakovsky are a couple. Even though Burakovsky hasn’t really broken out yet, he was a PO performer in Washington. I’d rather have Burakovsky than Marner on my team in the POs.

I wouldn’t. If both players were making equal money if easily take Marner.

 

[flyfysher]

I wouldn’t. If both players were making equal money if easily take Marner.

Remind me what the AAV of Marner’s (choke) and Burakovsky’s contracts are? After all, I have to live in the real world.

I could see the TML syndrome at work here. Bring on the most skilled and talented player available and watch him bring dissension to our squad.

 

[Hasbro]

Here’s the thing: Dubas actually proved that analytics DO work in the most ironic way possible—he went away from them this last offseason and frankly I think it cost him dearly.

Like clock work. Same thing with Chayka. "They turned their back on the numbers".

Any failure has nothing to do with analytics. Every success is because the intern who thumbed through Moneyball.

 

[klozge]

Certain players elevate their game in the POs. Saad and Burakovsky are a couple. Even though Burakovsky hasn’t really broken out yet, he was a PO performer in Washington. I’d rather have Burakovsky than Marner on my team in the POs.

2 assists in five games. I like Burakovsky but no, you take Marner every single time

 

[flyfysher]

2 assists in five games. I like Burakovsky but no, you take Marner every single time

I was actually focused on players that ‘rise’ to the occasion in POs.

To replace Rantanen or Landeskog? No. 11M/AAV IIRC on the second line? No. Proven PO performer? No.

Marner is a good player but no room, no money for him (and he has to be better than Rantanen and cheaper too) and he better show me what he brings to a PO team first absent injury before I would even consider signing him.

I cannot foresee Sakic putting up with Marner’s negotiating stance like he did with Dubas.

So in a vacuum, yeah of course hockey fans take Marner over Burakovsky. But we don’t live in a vacuum.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don’t think Marner is soft tbh. I think he’s got a major nerves problem.

He just doesn’t seem to make the right plays, or execute like he can in the regular season. The effort is there imo and you could see how devastated he was with losing. I think the issue with him in the playoffs is between the ears.

Letting your nerves get to you is being soft though IMO. Same with letting the pressure get to you. Anything that you're not making a good enough effort to battle through.

The effort I saw him make with about 20-30 seconds left to go is a prime example of that lack of battle.

It was obvious they weren't coming back at that point but they dumped it in and he skated into the corner not like he was trying to get the puck and fight to the bitter end. He coasted into the corner like he couldn't wait for the game and the pressure to be over. I think that probably encapsulates his entire mentality that series.

 

[Pokecheque]

Like clock work. Same thing with Chayka. "They turned their back on the numbers".

Any failure has nothing to do with analytics. Every success is because the intern who thumbed through Moneyball.

Nope, you're just putting words in my mouth as usual. I've said repeatedly I didn't think Chayka was a good GM, nor was he really that savvy with analytics, we had no evidence really that he was driven by the numbers--he just liked to talk the talk. I've decried his work at building a thoroughly mediocre team for years now.

I've also said before that Dubas has made some egregious errors as Leafs GM--it took him and the Leafs WAY too long to realize Freddy wasn't a good goalie, screwed up the backup situation entirely, and there have been some others along the way. I still say the fatal flaw in Toronto was Shanahan believing he could have analytics guys and anti-analytics guys in the same room. In hindsight, if you were gonna keep Babcock, you should've let Dubas walk and keep Lamoriello and Hunter. Would they have been more successful? I've no idea, but it was never going to work the way they did it. And Dubas made a whole SLEW of moves this year that ran completely counter to what the numbers say, and I don't see how anyone could say that wasn't a mistake. But also...maybe this is the wrong core to build around. Is that a failure of analytics? I don't think so, I think it's a failure of some very human people who happen to use analytics. Shit happens...

If you want to see analytics at work, you can take off your blinders and look at your favorite hockey team. The Avs have integrated analytics at all levels--they've made acquisitions based on the numbers (Burakovsky, Toews) and they have a coach who has publicly said he listens to the numbers and bases some of his decisions. You really think they haven't benefited from analytics? You think their elite roster and scheme wasn't heavily heavily influenced by the numbers?

But you keep doing what you're doing, making up narratives and screaming STATWHACKERS every chance you get. Analytics are here to stay whether you want to acknowledge their value or not. The Avs use them a ton and that's not changing anytime soon. There's no real "poster child" or test case for analytics because almost every single team uses them to some extent, even "old-school" clubs like Dallas.

 

[Hasbro]

Nope, you're just putting words in my mouth as usual. I've said repeatedly I didn't think Chayka was a good GM, nor was he really that savvy with analytics, we had no evidence really that he was driven by the numbers--he just liked to talk the talk. I've decried his work at building a thoroughly mediocre team for years now.

I've also said before that Dubas has made some egregious errors as Leafs GM--it took him and the Leafs WAY too long to realize Freddy wasn't a good goalie, screwed up the backup situation entirely, and there have been some others along the way. I still say the fatal flaw in Toronto was Shanahan believing he could have analytics guys and anti-analytics guys in the same room. In hindsight, if you were gonna keep Babcock, you should've let Dubas walk and keep Lamoriello and Hunter. Would they have been more successful? I've no idea, but it was never going to work the way they did it. And Dubas made a whole SLEW of moves this year that ran completely counter to what the numbers say, and I don't see how anyone could say that wasn't a mistake. But also...maybe this is the wrong core to build around. Is that a failure of analytics? I don't think so, I think it's a failure of some very human people who happen to use analytics. Shit happens...

If you want to see analytics at work, you can take off your blinders and look at your favorite hockey team. The Avs have integrated analytics at all levels--they've made acquisitions based on the numbers (Burakovsky, Toews) and they have a coach who has publicly said he listens to the numbers and bases some of his decisions. You really think they haven't benefited from analytics? You think their elite roster and scheme wasn't heavily heavily influenced by the numbers?

Except signing Compher right?

You’re going to tell me how you know anything that goes on in the Avalanche front office?

And you are saying the same thing. “It’s always the old school guys undermining they boy genius” They are a team that tanked, all their best players are Top 10 picks who have fatal flaws and they never developed any depth or got latter picks to work out to offset those overpaid tin men.

 

[Foppa2118]

Every team takes analytics seriously. So the Avs obviously are no exception. That isn't the issue.

It's knowing how to build a team with the right culture, the right compete, the right character, the right mental toughness, and the right work ethic to play just as hard defensively as you do offensively.

That's where Sakic has excelled and Dubas has failed. If you focus too much on the analytics, and don't put enough emphasis on the other traits, you end up with a group of individuals, not a team.

There's a reason why Nate didn't want there to be many changes to the team the last couple years, and why Sakic followed suit.

The culture the Avs have right now makes them deadly. They're a close knit group off the ice and they play that way on the ice. They play for each other and hold each other accountable.

I bet you MacKinnon, Mikko, and Makar don't have the star persona in that locker room that Matthews and Marner do. Who's gonna tell them they need to get their shit together and start battling harder out there?

The Avs on the other hand do have guys that can have those tough conversation to tell the core guys they need to get going. We know that because they've talked about it. That's why they're a team. Not a group of individuals.

 

[Pokecheque]

Except signing Compher right?

You’re going to tell me how you know anything that goes on in the Avalanche front office?

And you are saying the same thing. “It’s always the old school guys undermining they boy genius” They are a team that tanked, all their best players are Top 10 picks who have fatal flaws and they never developed any depth or got latter picks to work out to offset those overpaid tin men.

Nope, that's you saying that, not me. Straw men as usual.

I literally just called out Dubas for his decisions this past offseason. I've called him out before too. I don't think he shits gold or anything, just acknowledging that the hockey men left him a bit of a mess (two bad contracts in Marleau and Zaitsev with two huge RFAs to sign) and that hampered the process. Like I said, they shouldn't have had the old-school guys driving the bus and then abruptly hand the keys over to the new-age guy. And it turns out...maybe the new-age guy is more of old-school than I thought.

And you conveniently ignore again that the Avalanche are quite possibly the most analytics-driven team in the league. At least the team that's likely benefited the most from them. Yes, Compher and Donskoi are exceptions to that approach, but those are also two of the worst contracts they have on the books. So is Graves. And...so is EJ. Are you seriously saying the Avs are NOT analytics driven based on one player? One?

They've stated publicly that they make decisions based on analytics, Bednar has literally said he will go with one guy over another because the analytics told him so. I know for a fact that ownership has pushed for integration of advanced stats, not just the Avs, but all KSE properties. This isn't a secret, you're just choosing to ignore it because analytics enrages you for some weird reason. And if you don't think trading for Burakovsky was not analytics-driven then I don't know what to tell you. Toews was too. Their entire scheme is informed by analytics.

So go ahead, continue to be the old man wishing analytics would go away--they're not. This is a fight instigated by you that you've already lost several times over.

 

[Richard88]

Nope, that's you saying that, not me. Straw men as usual.

I literally just called out Dubas for his decisions this past offseason. I've called him out before too. I don't think he shits gold or anything, just acknowledging that the hockey men left him a bit of a mess (two bad contracts in Marleau and Zaitsev with two huge RFAs to sign) and that hampered the process. Like I said, they shouldn't have had the old-school guys driving the bus and then abruptly hand the keys over to the new-age guy. And it turns out...maybe the new-age guy is more of old-school than I thought.

And you conveniently ignore again that the Avalanche are quite possibly the most analytics-driven team in the league. At least the team that's likely benefited the most from them. Yes, Compher and Donskoi are exceptions to that approach, but those are also two of the worst contracts they have on the books. So is Graves. And...so is EJ. Are you seriously saying the Avs are NOT analytics driven based on one player? One?

They've stated publicly that they make decisions based on analytics, Bednar has literally said he will go with one guy over another because the analytics told him so. I know for a fact that ownership has pushed for integration of advanced stats, not just the Avs, but all KSE properties. This isn't a secret, you're just choosing to ignore it because analytics enrages you for some weird reason. And if you don't think trading for Burakovsky was not analytics-driven then I don't know what to tell you. Toews was too. Their entire scheme is informed by analytics.

So go ahead, continue to be the old man wishing analytics would go away--they're not. This is a fight instigated by you that you've already lost several times over.

I'm not sure Donskoi is really an exception. When he was signed he was coming off several seasons with San Jose with great possession metrics, and also had very good analytics relating to puck transition through the neutral zone. Now, he has gone on to post 2 seasons with possession metrics among the worst on the team, but that doesn't change the fact that the acquisition of Donskoi originally was based on analytics to a large degree.

 

[Hasbro]

I'm not sure Donskoi is really an exception. When he was signed he was coming off several seasons with San Jose with great possession metrics, and also had very good analytics relating to puck transition through the neutral zone. Now, he has gone on to post 2 seasons with possession metrics among the worst on the team, but that doesn't change the fact that the acquisition of Donskoi originally was based on analytics to a large degree.

Nah that’s impossible. We’re it an analytics acquisition he’d be an all star.

 

[Pokecheque]

Nah that’s impossible. We’re it an analytics acquisition he’d be an all star.

Yep, nonsequitirs and sarcastic one-liners are all you got.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm not sure Donskoi is really an exception. When he was signed he was coming off several seasons with San Jose with great possession metrics, and also had very good analytics relating to puck transition through the neutral zone. Now, he has gone on to post 2 seasons with possession metrics among the worst on the team, but that doesn't change the fact that the acquisition of Donskoi originally was based on analytics to a large degree.

Really? I thought they were average at best--he's certainly good at skating the puck through the NZ, which is one reason I don't like him and Burakovsky on the same line--they're just way too similar. Okay, well, that's still not a great contract, and that invariably happens with FA acquisitions, you're almost always going to overpay and also for a guy who's likely close to or already in a decline. I'm really not mad or even annoyed at the Donk signing--I quite like him as a player--but long-term those resources might have been better spent elsewhere. Oh well...if he plays a part in getting this team through the playoffs then it's all a moot point.

 

[Hasbro]

Nope, that's you saying that, not me. Straw men as usual.

I literally just called out Dubas for his decisions this past offseason. I've called him out before too. I don't think he shits gold or anything, just acknowledging that the hockey men left him a bit of a mess (two bad contracts in Marleau and Zaitsev with two huge RFAs to sign) and that hampered the process. Like I said, they shouldn't have had the old-school guys driving the bus and then abruptly hand the keys over to the new-age guy. And it turns out...maybe the new-age guy is more of old-school than I thought.

And you conveniently ignore again that the Avalanche are quite possibly the most analytics-driven team in the league. At least the team that's likely benefited the most from them. Yes, Compher and Donskoi are exceptions to that approach, but those are also two of the worst contracts they have on the books. So is Graves. And...so is EJ. Are you seriously saying the Avs are NOT analytics driven based on one player? One?

They've stated publicly that they make decisions based on analytics, Bednar has literally said he will go with one guy over another because the analytics told him so. I know for a fact that ownership has pushed for integration of advanced stats, not just the Avs, but all KSE properties. This isn't a secret, you're just choosing to ignore it because analytics enrages you for some weird reason. And if you don't think trading for Burakovsky was not analytics-driven then I don't know what to tell you. Toews was too. Their entire scheme is informed by analytics.

So go ahead, continue to be the old man wishing analytics would go away--they're not. This is a fight instigated by you that you've already lost several times over.

No you said Compher was contrary to the Statwhackers. Which he must be because he hasn’t worked out.

And the Avalanche must be using analytics because they are winning.

When ever a team gets the sheen of being new age in any of the sports and anything goes wrong it is never the analytics fault. Nope, the coach didn’t listen or the GM picked the wrong guy in rebellion to the intern with a math degree and when it’s fails even more spectacularly as with the cases of Dubas and Chayka the excuses fly even higher.

I mean Dubas CAN’T be an analytics guy. His team couldn’t get past the first round.

 

[Foppa2118]

They've stated publicly that they make decisions based on analytics, Bednar has literally said he will go with one guy over another because the analytics told him so. I know for a fact that ownership has pushed for integration of advanced stats, not just the Avs, but all KSE properties. This isn't a secret, you're just choosing to ignore it because analytics enrages you for some weird reason. And if you don't think trading for Burakovsky was not analytics-driven then I don't know what to tell you. Toews was too. Their entire scheme is informed by analytics.

The Avs entire plan is supported by analytics but it isn't driven by analytics. That's the difference IMO.

Burakovsky and Toews were about analytics but not solely about that. They identified that they would be a good fit in the locker room, work hard defensively, and buy into the coach's system.

If you look at Burky, he may not be a Selke finalist, but he works defensively. He doesn't dog back checks. He works. And he's a guy that fits in well in that locker room.

These aren't things you can pick up from analytics. If you give too much weight to analytics over these things, you end up with one dimensional players that don't play as a team.

I don't think Dubas is as good at identifying team chemistry and the intangibles outside of offensive play. I think he's closer to the EA sports side of building what looks like a good team on paper.

Not that he can't be good at this in the future, but that's the problem with thinking these young wiz kids like Chayka and Dubas can make up for their lack of experience, because they understand analytics better than other GM's.