Joe Sakic - Record as Colorado Avalanche GM - Part II (Updates in First Post)

[cgf]

Maybe not... still not sure what it has to do with Sakic's work at the TDL.

Yeah, I misread your initial post as "could do" not "could've done" and started riffing off that.

Once I noticed, in came the edit.

 

[MarkT]

Well, I think that's a bit of an unfair hypothetical you're setting up saying "selling all the team's assets, winning one cup, then sucking for a decade" because that's not what I want at all. What I want is to win a cup (or cups) before the retool that's invariably coming in the mid-2020s...during which we too would probably make the playoffs more years than not, just like the Sharks have...and the team to be able to win again during a 2nd window that we'd still have the assets to open even with the addition or two that I think should've been made last summer.

But you're right. If choosing between a hypothetical decade of cup-less playoff seasons vs a decade with 1 cup but the team missing the playoffs more often than not, I pick the latter. And that probably is a central point of conflict in this discussion.

Definitely a central point of conflict, and having confirmed that I'm not sure there's anywhere to go but to politely agree that we each think each other's philosophy is incorrect.

Chicago made some mistakes, but they also had some significant advantages that won't be available to us as the mistakes they made didn't come close to outweighing the boons that they wrought from the cap-circumventing contracts they got to lock in under the previous CBA. Had Captain Serious & the rapist gotten to sign their current deals under that CBA as well, then even with the errors that were made Chicago could have won another 2 cups.

I don't look at those ridiculous contracts as pure "boon" though. Without those ridiculous contracts, Hossa would have been a free agent 3 years ago and Keith would have been a free agent last year. Both situations would have given the Hawks a chance to move on from the older players and instead keep guys like Panarin, Teravainen, and Hinostroza, who could be making up the current core of the team along with Toews and Kane. And yeah, Chicago could have won two more cups, but that is certainly not guaranteed, or even likely given how difficult it is to win any cups at all. And I'm not sure you're really thinking hard about the serious mistakes Chicago has made. Just the Bolland and Seabrook contracts plus the Panarin trade are enough to make me say they shouldn't be used as an archetype of a contending team - they're a team who had a chance at being a long-term success story but they blew it with a series of horrible decisions. If they had just made mildly intelligent moves, they could right now be in the process of transitioning away from Kane and Toews (maybe even trading them) and getting ready to win another cup with the new crop of players led by Panarin. Even in their current state they would likely have made the playoffs had Cam Ward been replaced with an actual NHL goalie and/or Crawford was able to remain healthy.

 

[cgf]

Definitely a central point of conflict, and having confirmed that I'm not sure there's anywhere to go but to politely agree that we each think each other's philosophy is incorrect.



I don't look at those ridiculous contracts as pure "boon" though. Without those ridiculous contracts, Hossa would have been a free agent 3 years ago and Keith would have been a free agent last year. Both situations would have given the Hawks a chance to move on from the older players and instead keep guys like Panarin, Teravainen, and Hinostroza, who could be making up the current core of the team along with Toews and Kane. And yeah, Chicago could have won two more cups, but that is certainly not guaranteed, or even likely given how difficult it is to win any cups at all. And I'm not sure you're really thinking hard about the serious mistakes Chicago has made. Just the Bolland and Seabrook contracts plus the Panarin trade are enough to make me say they shouldn't be used as an archetype of a contending team - they're a team who had a chance at being a long-term success story but they blew it with a series of horrible decisions. If they had just made mildly intelligent moves, they could right now be in the process of transitioning away from Kane and Toews (maybe even trading them) and getting ready to win another cup with the new crop of players led by Panarin. Even in their current state they would likely have made the playoffs had Cam Ward been replaced with an actual NHL goalie and/or Crawford was able to remain healthy.

Yeah, at this point I think all we can really do is wait until the summer & see what has happened.


As for the hawks; the Seabrook deal is a real killer for them now, but that happened after their window had already been closed by having to pay Toews & the Rapist market value. Bickell was a terrible move, same for Bolland & Ward, the Panarin trade was dumb too, and the list doesn't end there...but those mistakes wouldn't have killed them or even happened (in the case of Panarin), if they were paying each of Toews & the Rapist 4M a year less. That would've covered all of Panarin's post-ELC raise & they wouldn't have needed to sell off Saad in the first place because those contracts increased the margin of error they had during their window dramatically.

Plus we're only talking about the negatives that they suffered which could be avoided by us, not the positives that they enjoyed which cannot be replicated...which also included the rabbits that they pulled out of their hat on multiple occasions & the draw they were to NCAA- & Euro-FAs, which we just don't have a history of being.

PS - Hossa didn't cost them anyone thanks to his "skin condition" that sprung up the instant he stopped being effective & Keith is still a big piece for them; one that they are going to lean on heavily to continue helping them blood in their young blueliners.

 

[MarkT]

As for the hawks; the Seabrook deal is a real killer for them now, but that happened after their window had already been closed by having to pay Toews & the Rapist market value. Bickell was a terrible move, same for Bolland & Ward, the Panarin trade was dumb too, and the list doesn't end there...but those mistakes wouldn't have killed them or even happened (in the case of Panarin), if they were paying each of Toews & the Rapist 4M a year less. That would've covered all of Panarin's post-ELC raise & they wouldn't have needed to sell off Saad in the first place because those contracts increased the margin of error they had during their window dramatically.

Plus we're only talking about the negatives that they suffered which could be avoided by us, not the positives that they enjoyed which cannot be replicated...which also included the rabbits that they pulled out of their hat on multiple occasions & the draw they were to NCAA- & Euro-FAs, which we just don't have a history of being.

PS - Hossa didn't cost them anyone thanks to his "skin condition" that sprung up the instant he stopped being effective & Keith is still a big piece for them; one that they are going to lean on heavily to continue helping them blood in their young blueliners.

All I'm trying to do is convince you to stop using Chicago as an example of a team whose "window has closed" due to the inevitability of cup windows closing - their window didn't close due to inevitability - it closed due to possibly dozens of poor decisions. If you want to use an example, find a team that more or less did everything right and still had their cup window close on them.

P.S. If Hossa had signed a current CBA contract, he'd have been a UFA in 2016 (at the latest), which would have allowed Chicago to let him walk or trade him rather than losing Teravainen, then Panarin. Same goes for Keith and the trading of Hjalmarsson.

 

[cgf]

All I'm trying to do is convince you to stop using Chicago as an example of a team whose "window has closed" due to the inevitability of cup windows closing - their window didn't close due to inevitability - it closed due to possibly dozens of poor decisions. If you want to use an example, find a team that more or less did everything right and still had their cup window close on them.

P.S. If Hossa had signed a current CBA contract, he'd have been a UFA in 2016 (at the latest), which would have allowed Chicago to let him walk or trade him rather than losing Teravainen, then Panarin. Same goes for Keith and the trading of Hjalmarsson.

None of those poor decisions would've closed their window though if not for the 20M+ being spent on those two forwards. Which is why I keep bringing them up when talking about previous cup winners...nevermind that their mistakes were still far outweighed by the shrewd decision & good finds that they made throughout their window.

Hossa was better than Teravainen in 2016, so if he had become a UFA they would've still dumped TT to re-sign Hossa...which likely would've cost them even more than what he was already signed for since his fall was very steep & abrupt; it's wasn't like Seabrook's long descent into ever deeper mediocrity.

Ditto Keith v Hjalmarsson, they would still have kept Keith if his contract had expired before the hammer needed to get paid. Those vets were just too crucial to their cup dreams to be let go at that time. Which is why I don't think their contracts compare at all to the deals that their stars signed under the new CBA.

 

[MarkT]

None of those poor decisions would've closed their window though if not for the 20M+ being spent on those two forwards, though. Which is why I keep bringing them up when talking about previous cup winners...nevermind that their mistakes were still far outweighed by the shrewd decision & good finds that they made throughout their window.

Hossa was better than Teravainen in 2016, so if he had become a UFA they would've still dumped TT to re-sign Hossa...which likely would've cost them even more than what he was already signed for since his fall was very steep & abrupt; it's wasn't like Seabrook's long descent into ever deeper mediocrity.

Ditto Keith v Hjalmarsson, they would still have kept Keith if his contract had expired before the hammer needed to get paid. Those vets were just too crucial to their cup dreams to be let go at that time. Which is why I don't think their contracts compare at all to the deals that their stars signed under the new CBA.

Those are exactly the kind of decisions a smart team doesn't make if they want to content forever. You don't keep Hossa if it means you have a trade a young player with tons of potential. You also don't keep an ageing Keith if it means losing younger players who are nearly as good.

And can you please explain again how Kane and Toews being signed to 10M each has any bearing whatsoever on whether or not a smart team could continue contending for a very long time (in the current era) if they just make good decisions.

 

[cgf]

Those are exactly the kind of decisions a smart team doesn't make if they want to content forever. You don't keep Hossa if it means you have a trade a young player with tons of potential. You also don't keep an ageing Keith if it means losing younger players who are nearly as good.

And can you please explain again how Kane and Toews being signed to 10M each has any bearing whatsoever on whether or not a smart team could continue contending for a very long time (in the current era) if they just make good decisions.

But you can't contend forever, so they needed to try to squeeze in as many cup runs as they could before the clock struck midnight, which is why losing Hossa or Keith over TT or Hammer would've closed their window even faster. Even if they had traded their core for a younger core at the peak of their value after that 3rd cup, the hawks wouldn't have instantly gone back to contending. That new core would've need time to grow together & become contenders so I can't blame them for trying to sneak another cup in before entering their re-tool.

And I'm not sure what you're asking. Those contracts consumed so much of the cap that it wouldn't have taken good/smart decisions to surround them with a cup caliber core & cup caliber depth as they aged, but omnipotent decison-making...especially with Toews' offensive downturn.

 

[Foppa2118]

Nor is it for the offseason

Either way, the dumbest thing Joe could've done at the TDL was waste any sort of (even pseudo-)asset on a washed up "playoff vet" like Derick Brassard...

Personally, I have no issues with trading a 3rd round pick for a vet like Brassard. Even if it wasn't the move some were hoping for, everyone would have been even more upset if he did nothing.

That 3rd rounder most likely won't amount to much (especially with the Avs drafting in the middle rounds) and they'll get a 6th rounder back when they let Brassard walk, for whatever that's worth (not much).

That said, Brassard could do absolutely nothing in his tenure with the Avs, and then score a huge OT winner to help the Avs advance to the next round, and it would make that trade absolutely worth it. Even one big goal to tie a game, or to spark a comeback, and win one game makes it worth it.

That's why you bring in guys like him and Boedker. Not to be major parts of the team, but just hoping they can come up with a big play or two when the team needs it. The kind of play you wouldn't have got if they weren't there.

 

[Hasbro]

The Rockies never hesitated to trade picks to get immediate help.

Whatever happened to those guys.

 

[klozge]

May Sakic's PS4 never break. What a guy...

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Matt Duchene

for

D Samuel Girard
C Shane Bowers
C Vladislav Kamenev
G Andrew Hammond*
D Bowen Byram (2019 4th overall)
C Matthew Stienburg (2019 63rd overall)
G Justus Annunen (2018 64th overall)
D Danila Zhuravlyov (2018 146th overall)

* Hammond no longer with organization

 

[Foppberg]

Matt Duchene

for

D Samuel Girard
C Shane Bowers
C Vladislav Kamenev
G Andrew Hammond*
D Bowen Byram (2019 4th overall)
C Matthew Stienburg (2019 63rd overall)
G Justus Annunen (2018 64th overall)
D Danila Zhuravlyov (2018 146th overall)

* Hammond no longer with organization

True, but his performance in game 5 vs Nashville last year was about the best possible value we could've gotten from him.

 

[Foppa2118]

2019 NHL Draft


Picks

• 1st Round (#4) - Bowen Byram - D - Left - 6'1" 195 lbs - Vancouver (WHL)
• 1st Round (#16) - Alex Newhook - C - 5'10" 192 lbs - Victoria (BCHL)
• 2nd Round (#47) - Drew Helleson - D - 6'3" 194 lbs - USA (NTDP)
• 3rd Round (#63) - Matthew Stienburg - C - 6'1" 182 lbs - St. Andrews College (CAHS)
• 3rd Round (#78) - Alex Beaucage - RW - 6'2" 192 lbs - Rouyn-Norande (QMJHL)
• 5th Round (#140) - Sasha Mutala - RW - 6'0" 200 lbs - Tri-City (WHL)
• 6th Round (#171) - Luka Burzan - C/RW - 6'0" 184 lbs - Brandon (WHL)
• 7th Round (#202) - Trent Miner - G - 6'1" 187 lbs - Vancouver (WHL)

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Matt Duchene

for

D Samuel Girard
C Shane Bowers
C Vladislav Kamenev
G Andrew Hammond*
D Bowen Byram (2019 4th overall)
C Matthew Stienburg (2019 63rd overall)
G Justus Annunen (2018 64th overall)
D Danila Zhuravlyov (2018 146th overall)

* Hammond no longer with organization

This trade looks even better considering what the return has been on the good players traded recently.

 

[Grigowski]

Matt Duchene

for

D Samuel Girard
C Shane Bowers
C Vladislav Kamenev
G Andrew Hammond*
D Bowen Byram (2019 4th overall)
C Matthew Stienburg (2019 63rd overall)
G Justus Annunen (2018 64th overall)
D Danila Zhuravlyov (2018 146th overall)

* Hammond no longer with organization

...and then signs Duchene back for 6 x 7 Mill.

That would be the deal/steal of the century and Sakic would be the manager of the year on July 1st!

Imagine.....

 

[Bubba Thudd]

I know it's a little lot late, but we should add a poll to this thread.
Rate Sakic on a scale of 1 - 5 with 5 being the best.
Allow people to change their vote as the season goes on.
Might be interesting to watch it vary between a 2 and a 5.

 

[Foppa2118]

I know it's a little lot late, but we should add a poll to this thread.
Rate Sakic on a scale of 1 - 5 with 5 being the best.
Allow people to change their vote as the season goes on.
Might be interesting to watch it vary between a 2 and a 5.

That's an interesting idea. I was gonna make a new thread after Sakic made a move or two in UFA since we're over 1k posts. Seemed like a good time to start one since most of us have been holding off judgment until then. I'll add a poll to that one.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

That's an interesting idea. I was gonna make a new thread after Sakic made a move or two in UFA since we're over 1k posts. Seemed like a good time to start one since most of us have been holding off judgment until then. I'll add a poll to that one.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I know it's a little lot late, but we should add a poll to this thread.
Rate Sakic on a scale of 1 - 5 with 5 being the best.
Allow people to change their vote as the season goes on.
Might be interesting to watch it vary between a 2 and a 5.

I would prefer two separate threads (one now and one beginning of Oct) so we have records of who changed their mind.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I know it's a little lot late, but we should add a poll to this thread.
Rate Sakic on a scale of 1 - 5 with 5 being the best.
Allow people to change their vote as the season goes on.
Might be interesting to watch it vary between a 2 and a 5.

Yeah once Barrie is gone we need something other than Landeskog's leadership, or Makar's height to fight about.

 

[Pokecheque]

Yeah once Barrie is gone we need something other than Landeskog's leadership, or Makar's height to fight about.

I have full confidence in our ability to find something inane to fight about for several pages/threads.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I have full confidence in our ability to find something inane to fight about for several pages/threads.

If it ends up being goal-tending again for part of next season. I'm going to lose my mind.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Joe will be a solid 3.5. He's no PL but he's also no EL. He seems to have learned a bit and has made at least one home-run but he's had a few blunders he still needs to make amends for.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

There is like a night and day difference in quality between the Sakic/Roy era and what Sakic is doing now. Joe has been one of the best GM's in the league the past few years and one of the worst before Roy left. Makes it somewhat difficult to grade his performance.

 

[MarkT]

There is like a night and day difference in quality between the Sakic/Roy era and what Sakic is doing now. Joe has been one of the best GM's in the league the past few years and one of the worst before Roy left. Makes it somewhat difficult to grade his performance.

It's almost as if Roy was behind the bad moves...