Jets Top Prospects Poll: #9 Prospect
- Thread starter puck stoppa
- Start date
puck stoppa
Registered User
I really like Smith and Berdin but went with Kovacevic. I think he can be a late bloomer like Poolman. Too bad he's not playing with the Moose this year.
puck stoppa
Registered User
Darn, I put Green in twice by accident. Just added Berdin, gotta see if I can delete one of the Greens. I don't think I can delete one now, if you vote Green just vote for the first one. Can a MOD delete the second Green?
edit: fixed, thanks Romang.
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DeepFrickinValue
Formally Ruffus
- May 14, 2015
- 5,314
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Skidooboy
Registered User
As I go on in this thread I cant help but laugh.
none of this has ANY meaning.
Where was appleton on this list in 2015? or even 2016?
he wouldn't have been ANYWHERE NEAR the top ten prospects....
Unless you were to spend the time to fly around the world to see all these guys game after game after game, day in day out, you can't really form much of an opinion till they hit the Moose and you finally get to see them all lined up against similar competition. Then it's still a gamble as to wether the skills they show can translate to the NHL.....
look at Lowry vs Dano vs Byfuglien.... draft order, prospect rankings...they don't really seem to mean much.
none of this has ANY meaning.
Where was appleton on this list in 2015? or even 2016?
he wouldn't have been ANYWHERE NEAR the top ten prospects....
Unless you were to spend the time to fly around the world to see all these guys game after game after game, day in day out, you can't really form much of an opinion till they hit the Moose and you finally get to see them all lined up against similar competition. Then it's still a gamble as to wether the skills they show can translate to the NHL.....
look at Lowry vs Dano vs Byfuglien.... draft order, prospect rankings...they don't really seem to mean much.
puck stoppa
Registered User
It's a way to fill in the down time in summer in the boards. No one claims to be an expert, just fun opinion type stuff. Having said that, I find some posters on here very knowledgable and respect their opinions and enjoy reading them.
ThinIce61
Registered User
- Jul 11, 2018
- 2,761
- 5,260
You may be right to a point but the meaning is pretty straightforward for doing this.
Ranking our prospects is a good way to educate our fan base on our prospects as some here do know more than others and have seen more of their games. Or maybe it is just that they drink more beer.
What is important is that doing these rankings occupies our minds and helps us forget the fact there is no hockey now and how close we came to going to the Stanley Cup Finals.
It also distracts us from the fact that we have a sub par footbal team that hasn't won anything since Moses was a little boy.
It is though just a fun exercise to see if we can all come to some kind of consensus on which of or prospects will matriculate to the big club in the coming years. And we can compare to other teams prospect lists.
I think it should probably be Green or Kovacevic at this point, but I'm going with the darkhorse that super-scout Giese says has "slippery" skill like a first rounder - Smith.
The members of this forum have been traditionally pretty good at picking out who's a decent prospect just based on reports, stats, and some viewings.
You mentioned Lowry, so let's look at him. He made the list at #16 after being drafted in 2011. On the 2012 list he rose six spots to #10. On the 2013 list he had climbed another 6 spots to #4. He dropped back to #7 in 2014...and by 2015 he was no longer eligible because he was in the NHL.
Hellebuyck didn't make the list in his draft year because no one had ever heard of this 5th rounder from the NAHL. He put up a great rookie season in the NCAA and the fans here noticed, slotting him in at #10 in 2013. He then won the Richter award the following season and rose to #3 in 2014. #2 in 2015, #3 in 2016. And now he's an NHL starter with a Vezina nomination.
Once the Jets started adding some decent prospects to the pool, HF Jets posters were pretty quick to pick the winners. There are occasional misses, overall it's been a decent gauge.
Here's the Top 10 from 2013:
1. Trouba - Top pairing D
2. Scheifele - Elite C
3. Morrissey - Top pairing D
4. Lowry - 3C
5. Redmond - NHL/AHL Tweener
6. Petan - NHL/AHL Tweener
7. Postma - NHL/AHL Tweener
8. O'Dell - Bust
9. Hellebuyck - Above Average NHL Starter
10. Telegin - Bust
11-20 are all busts, with the exception of Andrew Copp who had just been drafted and ranked #20 (the next year he rose to #12, then #11, then NHL as a bottom-6 forward).
The fact that Appleton rose from #25 in his draft year, to #19 last year and all the way up to #3 this year isn't an indictment of the system. These guys are evaluated on their recent performance, and I think it ends up being more right than wrong.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Also, the whole “draft order is meaningless because of a few outliers” is interesting...
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
"look at Lowry vs Dano vs Byfuglien.... draft order, prospect rankings...they don't really seem to mean much."
Joe Hallenback
Moderator
- Mar 4, 2005
- 15,389
- 21,580
I actually think we do a pretty good job of ordering our prospects. I can't really argue this order too much either
Joe Hallenback
Moderator
- Mar 4, 2005
- 15,389
- 21,580
I think Lowry and Buff are good examples of drafting guys because of size that learned to improve their skating later
Oh... hmmm... not sure what is meant by that comment.
(I was obviously just skimming the thread).
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
That's not the conversation thread, though. That person was infering that draft order doesn't matter because some random exceptions... There are exceptions to every rule... like the rule that drafting guys *because of size* rather than drafting guys that are good in part because they have size is a more harmful than helpful process.
To your end though...
I don't think either are good comps for Stanley at all, anyways.
Lowry always had a strong PCS (my old version of the model) in every year except his draft year (before or after), which he was recovering from mono. If you adjust for that process, Lowry was already a very good player who was good in part because of his size.
Byfuglien scored a lot of points as a defenseman in the dub. His PCS was very high. He had skating issues and weight issues that scared people off. His performance though spoke of something altogether different.
Stanley's was not the same thing. Stanley's best PCS was in his draft+1 year (last year was worse) and even then he was about half of Lowry's D-1 year's PCS.
They may have improved their stock due to improving their skating, but they were already good players with size that garnered results. Stanley may (and has) improve with skating, but I would say he is different than those two, as a player with size who you hope to develops into a good player that garners results.
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Okay.
The draft market is highly inefficient... and has a lot of room for improvement. That said, to counter the older remark that GMoney and I were commenting on, draft order definitely still is meaningful.
truck
Registered User
Went Green again. Probably Kovacevic next.
I don't know if the Jets have ever had a deeper group of D prospects - even without the top end talent.
I don't know if the Jets have ever had a deeper group of D prospects - even without the top end talent.
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