Confirmed with Link: Jets re-sign Connor Hellebuyck on a six-year, $37M contract ($6.167M AAV).

[objectiveposter]

There is no such thing as a team or player option under the NHL CBA.

should have given him a 2 year deal then as the backup....his stock was real low... Helle would have gladly taken it after a terrible season trying to be the starter. 2 years to prove himself as a starter....and if he wasj not capable he could just be a decent backup.

 

[Romang67]

should have given him a 2 year deal then as the backup....his stock was real low... Helle would have gladly taken it after a terrible season trying to be the starter. 2 years to prove himself as a starter....and if he wasj not capable he could just be a decent backup.

Then after the two years as a starter, at least one of which would have been as a Vezina finalist, he could have gone to arbitration, done another year or two, and have cleaned up as a UFA. Either that or have Chevy completely at his mercy in contract negotiations.

It's an extremely rash idea to put yourself in a position where your player is one year from arbitration. That's what we're trying to avoid with Trouba.

You really seem eager to be rid of our Vezina finalist starting goalie.

 

[KingBogo]

Lundqvist had 2 great seasons before he got his big contract. I highly doubt the rangers would have given him that contract after just 1 good year.

Chevy should have never allowed the team to be put in this difficult scenario. 1 year deal (without team option for year2) has forced the jets into taking a huge risk. Considering Mason was signed for multiple years as the starter the Jets should have given Helle a 2 year deal to prove himself or just be a decent backup. Instead now the Jets are at his mercy for 6 seasons with just 1 year of a track record as a legit starter.

Chevy blew it.

Sometimes decisions have to be made and a GM has to trust the player will become the player they think they will become. Scheifele ended the 15-16 season on a tear looking like a promising star. Chevy jumped at the chance to sign him long term before an established track record at what is now one of the most team friendly contracts in the league. If Chevy balks at that point and signs a 2 year bridge, we would all be sitting around now debating if Chevy can keep the Scheifele deal under $9.5 M and how will we be able to sign Laine after that.

 

[Romang67]

1. quit making it sound like Helle was some sort of goalie prodigy. Helle was a 5th round draft pick for a reason. When he made the jump from minor to the pros he struggled greatly and was forced to completely change his game last year. His NCAA play is irrelevant.
2.Lundqvist and price didnt get contracts making them among the highest paid goalies until they proved it for multiple seasons. In fact, how many top tier goalies (who werent a flash in the pan) received both a high salary and long terms after just 1 good season? It rarely, if ever, happens.

3. I dont know if this was allowed by cba rules but last year the jets should have given helle a 2 year deal with the second year being a team option. Helles stock was extremely low last year after a terrible year...should have forced him into a 2nd year team option. Jets exercise that option this year and if he has another great year then sign him to a huge contract.

1. Pre-draft goalie prodigies hardly exist. Right now I think we have three goaltenders in the league that were drafted in the first round. The best goalie of this generation was drafted in the 7th round. Arguably the two best goaltenders in NHL history were drafted in the 10th and 3rd round. What the goalies do after they are drafted but before they hit the NHL gives you a much better idea of how good they actually will be. And you may not have noticed, but few goalies have done as well as Hellebuyck did in the time between draft and the NHL. Hellebuyck proceeded to put up above average stats in his first year in the NHL, after which yes he had a transition period (much like Lundqvist had a season where he put up a .912 sv%, and Price had a season where he put up a .905 sv% before they hit their primes). If Hellebuyck wasn't a prodigy, you must rest assured that his career at least sharply resemble some of the best goalies in the league. You did this before this season as well, where you kept bringing up Hellebuyck's draft position as if it actually mattered when he followed up his draft (which was his second draft btw, he actually went undrafted his first year) with putting up statistically the best career numbers for a goaltender in NCAA history.

2. @KingBogo pointed this out already, but:

Hellebuyck signed his first big contract ($6.167M per year with an $80M cap [7.7%]) after 166 games with a .917 sv%. Age 25.

Lundqvist signed his first big contract ($6.875M per year with a $56.7M cap [12.1%]) after 218 games with a .916 sv%. Age 26. Equivalent to a $9.7M contract for Hellebuyck.

Price signed his first big contract ($6.5M per year with a $70.2M cap [9.3%]) after 271 games with a .915 sv%. Age 25. Equivalent to a $7.4M contract for Hellebuyck.

More games, significantly more money. The question is if those extra games would tell us more about Hellebuyck's likely level as a goaltender, or if it just would drive up the price and bring him closer to UFA (again, if we actually were to go with your suggestions, we'd likely lose him in 2-3 years, or be paying him in the $8-10M range).

A Hot Goalie Isn’t a Better Goalie

Research suggests that a 3000 shot sample is when sv% starts to stabilize. If we were to ignore last year which you so gracefully suggested was a throw-away year because he needed to "completely change his game" to become the goalie today, we have a 30 game sample to begin next season to have a fairly good idea of who he is as a goaltender. Either way, he is extremely unlikely to dip down even to average starter in the league, which means his contract, which puts him at #16 for cap hit against salary cap at the time of signing is likely a good one.

3. The NHL doesn't allowed team or player option years, so that's a non-starter. Your other suggestion, that we simply sign him for two years and let him sit one year away from UFA with arbitration rights, is as much a non-starter. He would be able to do whatever he wanted in negotiations with another good year, which would kill us from a cap standpoint.

 

[Romang67]

So if you saw Lundqvist as a good example, I can only assume that if Hellebuyck increases his overall save percentage at all over the next 50 games, you'd have been fine with Chevy offering him $10M next summer after your suggested two-year show-me contract?

 

[ffh]

1. Pre-draft goalie prodigies hardly exist. Right now I think we have three goaltenders in the league that were drafted in the first round. The best goalie of this generation was drafted in the 7th round. Arguably the two best goaltenders in NHL history were drafted in the 10th and 3rd round. What the goalies do after they are drafted but before they hit the NHL gives you a much better idea of how good they actually will be. And you may not have noticed, but few goalies have done as well as Hellebuyck did in the time between draft and the NHL. Hellebuyck proceeded to put up above average stats in his first year in the NHL, after which yes he had a transition period (much like Lundqvist had a season where he put up a .912 sv%, and Price had a season where he put up a .905 sv% before they hit their primes). If Hellebuyck wasn't a prodigy, you must rest assured that his career at least sharply resemble some of the best goalies in the league. You did this before this season as well, where you kept bringing up Hellebuyck's draft position as if it actually mattered when he followed up his draft (which was his second draft btw, he actually went undrafted his first year) with putting up statistically the best career numbers for a goaltender in NCAA history.

2. @KingBogo pointed this out already, but:

Hellebuyck signed his first big contract ($6.167M per year with an $80M cap [7.7%]) after 166 games with a .917 sv%. Age 25.

Lundqvist signed his first big contract ($6.875M per year with a $56.7M cap [12.1%]) after 218 games with a .916 sv%. Age 26. Equivalent to a $9.7M contract for Hellebuyck.

Price signed his first big contract ($6.5M per year with a $70.2M cap [9.3%]) after 271 games with a .915 sv%. Age 25. Equivalent to a $7.4M contract for Hellebuyck.

More games, significantly more money. The question is if those extra games would tell us more about Hellebuyck's likely level as a goaltender, or if it just would drive up the price and bring him closer to UFA (again, if we actually were to go with your suggestions, we'd likely lose him in 2-3 years, or be paying him in the $8-10M range).

A Hot Goalie Isn’t a Better Goalie

Research suggests that a 3000 shot sample is when sv% starts to stabilize. If we were to ignore last year which you so gracefully suggested was a throw-away year because he needed to "completely change his game" to become the goalie today, we have a 30 game sample to begin next season to have a fairly good idea of who he is as a goaltender. Either way, he is extremely unlikely to dip down even to average starter in the league, which means his contract, which puts him at #16 for cap hit against salary cap at the time of signing is likely a good one.

3. The NHL doesn't allowed team or player option years, so that's a non-starter. Your other suggestion, that we simply sign him for two years and let him sit one year away from UFA with arbitration rights, is as much a non-starter. He would be able to do whatever he wanted in negotiations with another good year, which would kill us from a cap standpoint.

just on your last point wouldn't signing a 2 year contract take him to free agency. that and chevy being confident that he would get awarded 5.5 million now on arbitration kind of forced his hand to make a long term deal at 500k more then he thought a 1 year deal would come in at.

 

[KingBogo]

just on your last point wouldn't signing a 2 year contract take him to free agency. that and chevy being confident that he would get awarded 5.5 million now on arbitration kind of forced his hand to make a long term deal at 500k more then he thought a 1 year deal would come in at.

Yeah a 2 year deal would have been the worst option. Best is just what Chevy did and go long term. The 2nd is 1 year deal and adjust up or down next season accordingly. With our pending cap crunch there is a ton of risk with this option if Helly has another .920+ season. Just happy the deal is done and we can move on to worrying about Trouba's Arb hearing a week from today.

 

[Romang67]

just on your last point wouldn't signing a 2 year contract take him to free agency. that and chevy being confident that he would get awarded 5.5 million now on arbitration kind of forced his hand to make a long term deal at 500k more then he thought a 1 year deal would come in at.

I think what was suggested (even with hindsight, which was interesting) was a 2-year contract last year, which would have brought him to within one year of free agency at that point. Otherwise, yes, it would have taken him straight to UFA, which would have been disastrous unless he falters. All suggestions with letting him become a UFA at 28 or putting him within a year of UFA with arbitration rights are literally only good ideas if Hellebuyck collapses.

In those situations, even with average stats, he could have told Chevy to hand him a blank check or he'll be gone first thing when he hits UFA.

 

[Jetsfan79]

All things being equal, signing a goalie to this type of deal after 1 good season is risky. Difference here in my opinion is the fact that Helle has excelled at every level leading up to the NHL and also consider that rigorous dedication in adapting his game during last off season's training. He is very focused and seems like the type who lives and breathes in improving himself no matter the cost. I just don't see his overall foundational game downturning in the long run.

I do realize the "eye test" factor is harder to pin down in the goaltender position. But I just know Helle is no Jim Carey. Chevy did not blow it. At worse it's an understandable risk which I would categorize as no higher than medium risk. The higher risk I think is signing him to a shorter term contract only to then needing to bust the bank and screwing up your cap situation royally with the next contract.

 

[Romang67]

All things being equal, signing a goalie to this type of deal after 1 good season is risky. Difference here in my opinion is the fact that Helle has excelled at every level leading up to the NHL and also consider that rigorous dedication in adapting his game during last off season's training. He is very focused and seems like the type who lives and breathes in improving himself no matter the cost. I just don't see his overall foundational game downturning in the long run.

I do realize the "eye test" factor is harder to pin down in the goaltender position. But I just know Helle is no Jim Carey. Chevy did not blow it. At worse it's an understandable risk which I would categorize as no higher than medium risk. The higher risk I think is signing him to a shorter term contract only to then needing to bust the bank and screwing up your cap situation royally with the next contract.

Pretty much exactly my take. Yes, there is risk in this contract. But with the options being letting him get to UFA much earlier, or bringing him dangerously close to UFA with arbitration rights, we didn't really have a choice.

In fact, best option might have been to offer him a long-term contract with like $4-5M salary per year last year. And boy would that have gone over well on here!

I believe Hellebuyck will play at a high level for a while. Hopefully I'm right. I don't often make absolute statements that can come back to bite me later on here, but I will straight up say that I think Chevy made the right decision.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Their skilled players have aged and lost effectiveness for the most part. That and they have next to no depth anymore. They were the trend setters for playing the fast skilled game so not really sure what you mean by your first sentence.

The point was there is more then one way to win a cup.

Not that I don't think center depth isn't very important to winning but imo the Jets still have a very strong contingent down the middle so I am not concerned there.

There is no one key position that leads to a cup. Quick lead LAK to their cups. Crosby/Malkin/Murray lead the Pens to theirs. Depth/Crawford lead the 'Hawks, etc, etc. Goaltending is a common denominator but it alone won't do it. See Carey Price.

You can't (accurately) say, just do such and such and you will win. The final key ingredient in every SC winner is having the stars align. You need to have *A* strong team - not the strongest - just somewhere close, stay relatively injury free, draw the right opponents at the right time on your path through the playoffs. And you need to not have a letdown series, etc, etc.

 

[Robinson2187]

Late to post but this is great. I haven't felt this good about Jets goaltending since Bob Essensa.

 

[ps241]

1. Pre-draft goalie prodigies hardly exist. Right now I think we have three goaltenders in the league that were drafted in the first round. The best goalie of this generation was drafted in the 7th round. Arguably the two best goaltenders in NHL history were drafted in the 10th and 3rd round. What the goalies do after they are drafted but before they hit the NHL gives you a much better idea of how good they actually will be. And you may not have noticed, but few goalies have done as well as Hellebuyck did in the time between draft and the NHL. Hellebuyck proceeded to put up above average stats in his first year in the NHL, after which yes he had a transition period (much like Lundqvist had a season where he put up a .912 sv%, and Price had a season where he put up a .905 sv% before they hit their primes). If Hellebuyck wasn't a prodigy, you must rest assured that his career at least sharply resemble some of the best goalies in the league. You did this before this season as well, where you kept bringing up Hellebuyck's draft position as if it actually mattered when he followed up his draft (which was his second draft btw, he actually went undrafted his first year) with putting up statistically the best career numbers for a goaltender in NCAA history.

2. @KingBogo pointed this out already, but:

Hellebuyck signed his first big contract ($6.167M per year with an $80M cap [7.7%]) after 166 games with a .917 sv%. Age 25.

Lundqvist signed his first big contract ($6.875M per year with a $56.7M cap [12.1%]) after 218 games with a .916 sv%. Age 26. Equivalent to a $9.7M contract for Hellebuyck.

Price signed his first big contract ($6.5M per year with a $70.2M cap [9.3%]) after 271 games with a .915 sv%. Age 25. Equivalent to a $7.4M contract for Hellebuyck.

More games, significantly more money. The question is if those extra games would tell us more about Hellebuyck's likely level as a goaltender, or if it just would drive up the price and bring him closer to UFA (again, if we actually were to go with your suggestions, we'd likely lose him in 2-3 years, or be paying him in the $8-10M range).

A Hot Goalie Isn’t a Better Goalie

Research suggests that a 3000 shot sample is when sv% starts to stabilize. If we were to ignore last year which you so gracefully suggested was a throw-away year because he needed to "completely change his game" to become the goalie today, we have a 30 game sample to begin next season to have a fairly good idea of who he is as a goaltender. Either way, he is extremely unlikely to dip down even to average starter in the league, which means his contract, which puts him at #16 for cap hit against salary cap at the time of signing is likely a good one.

3. The NHL doesn't allowed team or player option years, so that's a non-starter. Your other suggestion, that we simply sign him for two years and let him sit one year away from UFA with arbitration rights, is as much a non-starter. He would be able to do whatever he wanted in negotiations with another good year, which would kill us from a cap standpoint.

This post is a 10 out of 10.

 

[ps241]

7.8% of the cap. Not bad at all.

If this were done when Pavs signed his deal (summer 2012), the equivalent would've been a $5M AAV.

As a Percent of the Cap at Time of Signing (should I call that "PotCaToS" or "PCATS"?) he's 16th on the list of highest paid goalies, behind Lundqvist, Bob, Rinne, Rask, Price, Holtby, Crawford, Schneider, Lehtonen, Varlamov, Quick, Fleury, Smith, Luongo and Howard.

If you account for his 2017-18 cap hit of $2.25M, this would be like Chevy signing him last summer for $5.6M x 7 - but without all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about signing a guy coming off a bad 2016-17 season for that kind of term and money...

I borrowed this and gave you credit ......I hope you don’t mind GmOney.

 

[PhilJets]

Did i post already good signing

 

[Trinity]

It's a gamble. Do you not remember the Pavelec contract? We have a very small sample size of Helle.

Hmmmmm......

 

[AKAChip]

Hmmmmm......

There’s an even smaller sample size of Hellebuyck playing bad as there is of him playing well.

 

[Trinity]

There’s an even smaller sample size of Hellebuyck playing bad as there is of him playing well.

Not if you count his NHL play prior to last season. In the NHL he's been bad or mediocre much more than he's been good or very good.

 

[AKAChip]

Not if you count his NHL play prior to last season. In the NHL he's been bad or mediocre much more than he's been good or very good.

Goalie numbers generally stay fairly consistent at all levels so his AHL numbers are relevant in this conversation more so than they would if he were a skater.

 

[Trinity]

Goalie numbers generally stay fairly consistent at all levels so his AHL numbers are relevant in this conversation more so than they would if he were a skater.

lol I'm not buying the AHL numbers argument but nice try!

 

[AKAChip]

lol I'm not buying the AHL numbers argument but nice try!

Oh well. It was worth a try. Sorry for wasting your time.

 

[Trinity]

Oh well. It was worth a try. Sorry for wasting your time.

lol you seem like a cool guy though!

 

[AKAChip]

lol you seem like a cool guy though!

My mom thinks so.

 

[Trinity]

My mom thinks so.

We are going to need your sense of humor with the way Hellebuyck is playing.

 

[Duke749]

Well this bump was dumb considering someone is ignorantly comparing Pavelec to Hellebuyck when in reality there is nothing similar to them.

That said, I understand being skeptical of big goalie contracts. But it’s still early so claiming to be some genius at this stage is definitely premature.