I apologize if this has been answered before but I can't find it anywhere ... How does this magic number work? What is the "magic number"? It seems to get higher as team's rank in standings goes up so its not # of points or wins required to be in the playoffs ... I can't figure it out. Please illuminate me. Thanks.
Definitions (using Jets perspective to illustrate)
Magic number - combined total of points gained by Jets and points lost by competing team where playoffs are mathematically assured.
Tragic number - the opposite of Magic number. Combined total of points lost by the Jets and points gained by the competing team that would mathematically eliminate the Jets from playoffs contention.
It's extremely unlikely tragic number will ever come into play this year. It was something to pay attention to in past seasons.
The way you calculate a magic number is:
1. Calculate the maximum number of points the competing team can achieve if they win every remaining game
2 Calculate the number of points the Jets need to gain to finish 1 point above that maximum. This number is the magic number the Jets need to guarantee to finish higher in the standings.
In some cases (which is actually most teams right now) the Jets will control the tiebreaker. As long as that doesn't change then the real magic number would end up being one point less.
Her's an example using St Louis
GR - 16
Points - 75
Max points possible - 107
Jets points - 85
Magic number - 23 (+85= 108)
Magic number with tie breakers - 22
The Jets currently controls the tie breaker with the Blues (ROW 36-32)
Every Jets win reduces the number by 2.
Every Jets OTL or SOL reduce the number by 1.
Every Jets regulation loss does not change the number
Every Blues regulation loss reduces the number by 2
Every Blues OTL or SOL reduces the number by 1
Ever Blues win does not change the number.
8 teams make the playoffs and 7 do not. Once the magic number reaches zero for 7 teams the Jets will have mathematically clinched a playoff spot. Once we get closer to the end I'll start factoring in tie breakers to be more realistic