- Feb 24, 2015
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Like any sport, hustling is better than coasting. See it in soccer, basketball, etc.We seem to lose games when we stop skating. Gliding to pucks and waiting for them to come to us. We have to skate for 60 minutes if we want to beat Vegas. We stop skating and we might as well hand them the series.
Well I won't see same users posting how we are the best team ever after we win than.We do have an ignore feature. I’d suggest make use of it.
It's not insurmountable. They've come back after being scored first 1 on 5 times when on average they'd have done it about 1.0 - 1.5 times, depending on when that first goal was scored.
A statistical anomaly that happened 14 times this season alone.
OR in a situation where they have about a 30% chance of winning, they've won one out of five times.
They already did once out of five times. That 3 goal comeback doesn't magically "not count" just because it would be convenient if it didn't count.
I understand what he's saying.
And he's wrong.
"spouting a stat"? Oh man. Is that what we're going to call it when someone counts to five correctly?
That's not how any of this works. Not the least of which is that it is not a comparable amount of variance on either side. Like, obsessing about a sample size of five is ridiculous enough, but "sample size of five" plus ".. and I'll just remove whatever samples don't please me" is even crazier.
FACT: If the Jets are scored on first in the playoffs, they have a significantly higher than 0% chance to win the game.
FACT: when the Jets have been scored on first in this playoffs, they have won ALMOST EXACTLY AS OFTEN as statistically expected.
FACT: the 'plus luck' that the Jets enjoyed in winning that game they were scored on first is almost exactly identical to the sum of all the 'minus luck' that the Jets suffered in not winning those other four games they were scored on first. Do you know how we can tell that? Because the Jets were almost exactly on average for "measured comebacks versus expected comebacks" during that five game sample. If measured equals expected, the net sum of luck is zero.
FACT: Even if the Jets DID have a 0% chance of winning when being scored on first in this playoffs, their winning rate when THEY score first has been so high that, if maintained throughout a year, would make them a certain President's Trophy winner and the clear cut playoff favorite.
... this last one is really the biggest of them all -- even taking this flawed line of reasoning at face value, it still would have us as a championship caliber team.
You can't quantify why the Jets will lose going forward if they give up the first goal.....but we know they probably will. The Jets' opponents have detailed knowledge of our tendencies when down in a game.You're reluctant to acknowledge these kinds of things and bring up "small sample sizes". But we've played 14 games. We're talking about 5 of them. That's 36% of our games. Seems like a pretty good sample size.
You can't quantify why the Jets will lose going forward if they give up the first goal.....but we know they probably will.
Lowsy's hurt so he gets a pass from me. Laine looks to have something bothering him as well but it might just be fatigue. Agree on Ehlers needing to step up big time.Lowry, Laine, Ehlers have been garbage all playoffs. I'm getting sick of defending these guys. If those 3 don't wake up we're sunk.
We need to re-sign Stastny as well or we're not going to have any chance at repeating this years success. Ship out Perreault if need be.
This going on about Laine when tonight he was hitting shooting making nice passes? And didnt cause any goals against us is interesting
The game was lost because 4 idiots decided to go for a line change when the puck was still on our side of center, I will defend Conner to the death on that one.
A series of real solid posts AlphaLackey. It does seem a bit weird someone has to work so hard to explain pretty common sense concepts.I understand what he's saying.
And he's wrong.
"spouting a stat"? Oh man. Is that what we're going to call it when someone counts to five correctly?
That's not how any of this works. Not the least of which is that it is not a comparable amount of variance on either side. Like, obsessing about a sample size of five is ridiculous enough, but "sample size of five" plus ".. and I'll just remove whatever samples don't please me" is even crazier.
FACT: If the Jets are scored on first in the playoffs, they have a significantly higher than 0% chance to win the game.
FACT: when the Jets have been scored on first in this playoffs, they have won ALMOST EXACTLY AS OFTEN as statistically expected.
FACT: the 'plus luck' that the Jets enjoyed in winning that game they were scored on first is almost exactly identical to the sum of all the 'minus luck' that the Jets suffered in not winning those other four games they were scored on first. Do you know how we can tell that? Because the Jets were almost exactly on average for "measured comebacks versus expected comebacks" during that five game sample. If measured equals expected, the net sum of luck is zero.
FACT: Even if the Jets DID have a 0% chance of winning when being scored on first in this playoffs, their winning rate when THEY score first has been so high that, if maintained throughout a year, would make them a certain President's Trophy winner and the clear cut playoff favorite.
... this last one is really the biggest of them all -- even taking this flawed line of reasoning at face value, it still would have us as a championship caliber team.
Sorry I saw it different. Connor was not trying to stick handle through 4 guys its more like they attacked him and caused the turned over BIG difference.Those "4 idiots" were teammates going on a line change. When the line changes, you dump the puck in. You don't try and stickhandle past THREE opposing players. Save your risky, egotistical flourishes for another time and just do what your team needs you to do: dump the puck in.
At center ice, four of the players on the ice thought that their teammate would do the expected, sensible thing. Instead, he screwed up, hence the goal.
I will defend your right to be wrong on this one. Just not to the death. I mean, I hardly even know you...
The Jets need to stay out of the casinos etc. to avoid the Vegas Flu. That's the goal.
Laine appears to have no confidence handling pucks right now.Lowsy's hurt so he gets a pass from me. Laine looks to have something bothering him as well but it might just be fatigue. Agree on Ehlers needing to step up big time.
Which is why when playing the point on the PP he also had to retreat to his own end.... and bring the puck up the ice. That's not his game and is asking for trouble if he's to do that regularly, which I don't think hes supposed to.l But it happened once, and one time is one time too many.Laine appears to have no confidence handling pucks right now.
Laine appears to have no confidence handling pucks right now.
Last census there were 705,244 people living in Winnipeg proper. Based on this suggestion I'd place you at 705, 244th on the list of those I'd be comfortable making roster decisions.That’s exactly why I would go with Appleton in his place with Petan in Ehlers place and Niku in for Enstrom! Poolman in for Chariot.....
maybe time to start Mason in net too? haha noThat’s exactly why I would go with Appleton in his place with Petan in Ehlers place and Niku in for Enstrom! Poolman in for Chariot.....
i can't forget what it was exactly.
That’s exactly why I would go with Appleton in his place with Petan in Ehlers place and Niku in for Enstrom! Poolman in for Chariot.....