Speculation: Jets FA/Trade goalie options

[scarbrow21]

Elliot would be an excellent addition based on the available options.

1) Won't cost much especially buying low on him because of a down season (.910 last year) which is still better than what we have
2) Term won't matter because he'll be cheap enough.
3) Has experience, has PLAYOFF experience, and would be a solid vet
4) Has something to prove.

 

[Yukon Joe]

I think Elliott might be a good fit. He's got pretty good numbers aside from this year. Is it a reasonable gamble to assume he bounces back? He's got a very large sample of solid results.

I think he fits as a short term, massive improvement on Hutch at the very least.

I will not be disappointed if the Jets pick up Elliott.

As long as the contract is acceptable, I'm fine with Elliott. He's only getting $2.5 mil per season now, probably not looking at much if any of a raise. $2.5 x 2 would be ideal.

 

[csk]

As long as the contract is acceptable, I'm fine with Elliott. He's only getting $2.5 mil per season now, probably not looking at much if any of a raise. $2.5 x 2 would be ideal.

I would be willing to give him longer at that value

 

[surixon]

The more I look into this the more it appears that you are either rolling the dice on a youngish backup or getting a older veteran goalie. The younger option is definitely the more exciting as people have pointed out great success stories like Talbot, Jones etc. We also need to be mindful that it's also the more risky option as the failings of Lack and Scrivens can attest to.

Unless your getting Bishop (And even he hasn't been noticeably better than the following counterparts the last four years) your getting a veteran type acquisition. While this can be construed as a status quo type move it really is likely the safest bet to make if your looking at getting league average goaltending. There isn't a lot of future upside (Jets have that in Helle and Comrie) but a quick look at the last 4 years of each of Mason, Elliot, MAF, Halak show a strong likelihood on greater than .915 goaltending (All have fairly compatible stats across that time period). Elliot would likely be the most receptive of potentially a platoon role if Helle outplays him.

 

[CaptainChef]

Well, there's a reasonable chance we'd be buying low on Elliot. He has had some very good seasons in the past, but is coming off a tough one.

Yep, I'm liking this suggestion a lot as well. The biggest knock on Elliott has been his playoff performances, but if he can get us there, I'm sure Helle & Elliott can win us a round or two.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Yeah, Elliot checks a lot of boxes:
1. Vet
2. Decent numbers
3. UFA (no assets lost in trade)
4. Should be relatively cheap (doesn't impact future signings of Jets' young talent)
5. Leaves open a path for Helle to take over the starter role (as compared to say Bishop who would demand a monster long term contract)
6. Likely happy come to Winnipeg
7. Likely ok-ish to platoon with Helle, if Helle ups his game.

Elliot doesn't check the superstar goalie box. But that box comes at a lot of additional cost that would impact the team in other areas.

It's also a cautious, but high value for the money move that has Chevy written all over it.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, Elliot checks a lot of boxes:
1. Vet
2. Decent numbers
3. UFA (no assets lost in trade)
4. Should be relatively cheap (doesn't impact future signings of Jets' young talent)
5. Leaves open a path for Helle to take over the starter role (as compared to say Bishop who would demand a monster long term contract)
6. Likely happy come to Winnipeg
7. Likely ok-ish to platoon with Helle, if Helle ups his game.

Elliot doesn't check the superstar goalie box. But that box comes at a lot of additional cost that would impact the team in other areas.

It's also a cautious, but high value for the money move that has Chevy written all over it.

After doing some research I'm starting to get on board with bringing him in.

In the last 4 seasons he ranks 11th in sav% as a starter with a very good .919. For comparison sake Bishop has a .920 over the same time period. The other talked about options are in the .917 and lower range. Elliot looks like a very smart, low cost move to substantially improve our goaltending in the near term.

 

[Coach G]

After doing some research I'm starting to get on board with bringing him in.

In the last 4 seasons he ranks 11th in sav% as a starter with a very good .919. For comparison sake Bishop has a .920 over the same time period. The other talked about options are in the .917 and lower range. Elliot looks like a very smart, low cost move to substantially improve our goaltending in the near term.

I agree that Elliot seems like a reasonable solution, but my concern is that Calgary is going to be in the market for a goaltender, too. I'm not all that familiar with their situation, though... is the thinking that they promote John Gillies or someone to back up Johnson next year? Would they not even try to resign Elliot? Seems unlikely to me.
Can anyone shed some light on this?
Edit: it appears that Johnson is a UFA as well, which throws another wrench into the situation.

 

[surixon]

I agree that Elliot seems like a reasonable solution, but my concern is that Calgary is going to be in the market for a goaltender, too. I'm not all that familiar with their situation, though... is the thinking that they promote John Gillies or someone to back up Johnson next year? Would they not even try to resign Elliot? Seems unlikely to me.
Can anyone shed some light on this?
Edit: it appears that Johnson is a UFA as well, which throws another wrench into the situation.

Could be an optic based decision based on how the playoffs went. Perhaps they over think it a bit (Believe better is out there and can be had) and not brig him back.

 

[ulf]

Is Miller a UFA. Should he be a Consideration? Elliot was so bad in the playoffs he's off my list.

 

[ps241]

My first choice is Antti Raanta if the cost isn't stupid.

I am fine with Elliott if we can get him for the right price and term. I echo what most of the others have said and believe he can be part of the solution.

 

[Gm0ney]

Is Miller a UFA. Should he be a Consideration? Elliot was so bad in the playoffs he's off my list.

Miller wants to play on the West Coast I think. I doubt he'd sign here. He didn't appear to enjoy our "Sil-ver Med-al" chant a few years ago either...

 

[Yukon Joe]

Miller wants to play on the West Coast I think. I doubt he'd sign here. He didn't appear to enjoy our "Sil-ver Med-al" chant a few years ago either...

Don't think he cares about the chant, but the story is apparently his wife is an actress of some success, and he really only wants to be in California.

 

[surixon]

Is Miller a UFA. Should he be a Consideration? Elliot was so bad in the playoffs he's off my list.

No interest in Miller, he's older than the other options at 36 and his stats the last 4 years have been pretty pedestrian. Yeah Elliot had a rough series but he's a year removed from leading the Blues to the WCF sporting a .921 save percentage.

 

[gbill2004*]

No interest in Miller, he's older than the other options at 36 and his stats the last 4 years have been pretty pedestrian. Yeah Elliot had a rough series but he's a year removed from leading the Blues to the WCF sporting a .921 save percentage.

That .921 has more to do with the Blues team defense than it does of Elliot's talent. Elliot is maybe a slight upgrade over Pavelec and should be seen as an option this offseason, but more of a fallback option and not a primary target. But considering how Chevy thinks/works, Elliot as a primary target makes sense.

 

[Gm0ney]

That .921 has more to do with the Blues team defense than it does of Elliot's talent. Elliot is maybe a slight upgrade over Pavelec and should be seen as an option this offseason, but more of a fallback option and not a primary target. But considering how Chevy thinks/works, Elliot as a primary target makes sense.

That's not how SV% works.

 

[gbill2004*]

That's not how SV% works.

It is. The type of shots a goalie face matter.

 

[DRW204]

2015-17 5v5 Sv% (rank) - Over 1000 minutes TOI

*Price*: .9364 (1st)
Grubauer: .9315 (7th)
Raanta: .9309 (10th)
Elliott: .9287 (14th)
Darling: .9284 (15th)
Miller: .9281 (19th)
Bishop: .9278 (21st)
Mason: .9267 (24th)
Fleury: .9262 (28th)
Hellebuyck: .9245 (33rd)
Nilsson: .9219 (40th)
Johnson: .9212 (41st)
Halak: .9204 (43rd)
Bernier: .9172 (49th)
Condon: .9164 (52nd)
Pavelec: .9163 (53rd)
Kinkaid: .9158 (54th)
Hutchinson: .9096 (60th)
*Hiller*: .8954 (Last - 62nd)

Price is #1 with a .9364. Hiller is dead last with .8954. Average is .9232. Median is .92455.

Hellebuyck was 3rd (.9389) if you look only at 2015-16. Sample size, etc., etc., but this season pulled him pretty far down. His lower league history, and even his small 2015-16 20 game sample suggests a bounce-back is likely.

I think if the Jets have a chance to get a big upgrade on Hutchinson with possible Hellebuyck upside for a reasonable price then that would be ideal. Let's make Hellebuyck the Mendoza line on this list and avoid those below and pursue those above him.

If we just want to improve on Hutch's performance over the least two seasons, I think the bar is pretty low.

do u have the full list of this?

 

[Gm0ney]

do u have the full list of this?

http://www.corsica.hockey/goalies/ That list is the last 2 seasons, goalies with 1000+ minutes 5v5.

 

[Evil Little]

It is. The type of shots a goalie face matter.

Yes, but why would their defensive deficiencies cause better shots against, but not more shots against?

 

[gbill2004*]

Yes, but why would their defensive deficiencies cause better shots against, but not more shots against?

When Elliot was there St Louis had a good D.

 

[Gm0ney]

It is. The type of shots a goalie face matter.

Not as much as you'd think over the long run.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If it was that easy, every team would have good goaltending. We may not be able to entice a good UFA to come here. We may not be able to come to terms on a trade for one. We may sign a good UFA and he turns out to be a dud for us, and then we're stuck with another Pavelec situation for however many years. I hate to be a pessimist,(lie)but the chances of a bad outcome are greater than a favorable one.

I disagree with both statements here.

I expect that some of the pending UFA goalies might sign with their current teams right after the XD but that is just guesswork.

Right now there are a lot of good goalies scheduled to be available. They range from top goalies like MAF and Bishop to short term bets like Halak and include several very promising backups who appear to have earned shots at the top job. I can't recall a time when there were so many good goalies available. Yes there is potential for a misstep but I don't think the probability of that is higher than the probability of success.

Compared to the Jets pretty much every team does have good goaltending. Is there any other team that had bad goaltending in '12 and hadn't fixed it by last year? Canes? Uh-uh. Ward was good in '12. And after he went bad they went out and got Lack. There's an example of your unfavourable outcome. They do happen with goalies. At least they tried though. What the **** happened to Lack anyway?

So are you suggesting the status quo because it will all blow up in our faces anyway? In that case we have nothing to lose by trying, we are doomed to fail if we don't.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We have access to the same information but draw different conclusions, perhaps? I'd say there's enough circumstantial evidence to support the case to fire the guy.

I'm good with just calling it a hunch. Just do it.

 

[Evil Little]

When Elliot was there St Louis had a good D.

I just meant in regard to the shot quality qualifier on save percentage, in general.

Why would a team have such poor defense that they give up better chances, but not a poor enough defense to give up more chances?