GDT: Jets @ Canes 11/13 7PM: Guess who is back?

[What the Faulk]

Reminds me of 2003-04 when IIRC Vasicek led the team with like 39 points. You almost have to score when you keep getting put in position to.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That'll happen when 50% more power play opportunities are involved.

That may be the case for the small sample size so far this season, but with Staal, it's his PP scoring that has tailed off in recent years, particularly the last 2 (3 years when you look at goals on the PP).

05/06: 100pts, 40 PP; 40% of points on PP
06/07: 70 pts, 26 PP; 37%
07/08: 82 pts, 35 PP; 43%
08/09: 75 pts, 24 PP; 32%
09/10: 70 pts, 23 PP; 33%
10/11: 76 pts, 29 PP; 38%
11/12: 70 pts, 23 PP; 33%
12/13: 53 pts, 9 PP; 17%
13/14: 61 pts, 12 PP; 19%

He's been historically good for 12-15 goals / season on the PP. The last 3? 7, 3, and 1. His PP production has been brutal over the past 3 years.

 

[Ole Gil]

He skates first line, first PP minutes every year. The rest of the team cycles in and out of those opportunities, but he has them in 100% of the games he plays.

How low do you think a center's scoring could realistically go if he never leaves the top line or top PP unit? 50 points? Maybe 40? So he's creating 10 or 20 self-made points over the course of a season? I'm not sure how that compares leaguewide, but at first glance it sure seems close to replacement level as top-6 forwards go.

I'm under the impression that those 20 extra points are premium points, and have a lot of value. Literally every other player on the Canes, if they put up 60 points, we'd be thrilled, no matter what line or how much power play time they got.

I think 10 to 20 points over the course of the season is a bigger gap than you're giving it credit for? Or maybe it isn't. There just don't seem to be many people around the league putting up that many points, let alone doing it when having a bad year.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Are we comparing Eric to every other player in the league, or are we comparing Eric to other 1st line centers in the league?

If it's the latter, Eric's obviously well behind quite a few of them.

 

[Ole Gil]

Are we comparing Eric to every other player in the league, or are we comparing Eric to other 1st line centers in the league?

If it's the latter, Eric's obviously well behind quite a few of them.

We probably should be comparing Eric to other 1st line centers. I think we have a habit of thinking because he's playing poorly, he drops down to something less. Because visually, he looks like pooh, but he still produces points like a mediocre top line center. (the counter argument being that lots of people could produce like a mediocre top line center if given top line center duties/minutes.)

 

[tarheelhockey]

(the counter argument being that lots of people could produce like a mediocre top line center if given top line center duties/minutes.)

That's pretty much what I'm saying.

Baseline production for a player consistently getting top minutes seems to be around 30-40 points. That's for garbage players who luck into the opportunity but don't really contribute anything.

Value-added production for an elite player is around 50 points (ie, 90 point players). For a good but not great player, around 30 points (ie, 70 point player).

We have a guy who produces 60, which suggests his value-added contribution is better than "garbage" but worse than "good". Which is to say, he's replacement level as far as 1Cs are concerned

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Produces 60? Look I'm the furthest thing from a Staal fan, but he's produced 60 exactly how many times in his career?

 

[Ole Gil]

That's pretty much what I'm saying.

Baseline production for a player consistently getting top minutes seems to be around 30-40 points. That's for garbage players who luck into the opportunity but don't really contribute anything.

Value-added production for an elite player is around 50 points (ie, 90 point players). For a good but not great player, around 30 points (ie, 70 point player).

We have a guy who produces 60, which suggests his value-added contribution is better than "garbage" but worse than "good". Which is to say, he's replacement level as far as 1Cs are concerned

Last year there was 1 90+ point forward, 17 70+ point forwards, and 47 60+ forwards. So, I think your Elite, great, good might be a bit stingy.

And the original point, is that Eric Staal at his worst is a 60 point player. So worst case scenario, he's an average top line NHL center offensively. Contrast that with Semin, who when he goes cold, scores at about a 3rd liner pace.

And again, the original point being that there's something happening that we're not seeing that causes Eric to score points when looking bad, but Alex not to.

 

[rocky7]

it may simply be the difference btw center and wing positions.....

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Probably because when Semin's playing poorly, his offensive zone production plummets. He makes all the wrong moves and doesn't get any points because of it. He forces plays that aren't there, or attempts to buy more time when he has none. The defensive side of the game remains consistent, however.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, when Eric's playing poorly, his defensive game suffers greatly. He's still putting up points, mostly because he's making the "safe" moves. He's not turning the puck over and he's earning secondary assists, because he's passing the puck into areas where he's least likely to be forced to rely on that defensive responsibility.

At least, in my observations.

 

[nobuddy]

Probably because when Semin's playing poorly, his offensive zone production plummets. He makes all the wrong moves and doesn't get any points because of it. He forces plays that aren't there, or attempts to buy more time when he has none. The defensive side of the game remains consistent, however.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, when Eric's playing poorly, his defensive game suffers greatly. He's still putting up points, mostly because he's making the "safe" moves. He's not turning the puck over and he's earning secondary assists, because he's passing the puck into areas where he's least likely to be forced to rely on that defensive responsibility.

At least, in my observations.

I would agree with this.