GDT: Jets @ Canes 11/13 7PM: Guess who is back?

[the halleJOKEL]

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Eric Staal playing hockey in lyrical form:

 

[Borsig]

Watching Semin play is like watching a dumpster fire burn. A multi million dollar dumpster fire.

 

[VAcaniac]

We have the 12th best PP in the league and Cam is stopping pucks? What is the world coming to. Too bad our first line is so #lazy.

 

[AD Skinner]

I didn't think Semin was all that bad last night, just invisible. Staal was downright atrocious- cherry-picking, bad passes/turnovers, lazy backcheck. I don't know if he can't play wing or doesn't want to play wing or if there's some deeper issue there or what. He played wing fine on Team Canada a few years ago (but I guess anyone can play wing next to Crosby). I don't remember him making a single play that didn't make me throw up arms and say "WTF are you doing??" In the third he made a good hustle play to beat a defenseman to the corner and then flung it out to the crease, without looking, to nobody like a beer leaguer.

 

[Joe McGrath]

I didn't think Semin was all that bad last night, just invisible. Staal was downright atrocious- cherry-picking, bad passes/turnovers, lazy backcheck. I don't know if he can't play wing or doesn't want to play wing or if there's some deeper issue there or what. He played wing fine on Team Canada a few years ago (but I guess anyone can play wing next to Crosby). I don't remember him making a single play that didn't make me throw up arms and say "WTF are you doing??" In the third he made a good hustle play to beat a defenseman to the corner and then flung it out to the crease, without looking, to nobody like a beer leaguer.

You were wondering WTF he was doing when he sent Gerbe in alone?

 

[AD Skinner]

Point taken. That was one heck of a defensive play by Bogosian.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Point taken. That was one heck of a defensive play by Bogosian.

Could have been a game saver, in a game that had no business being as close as it was.

 

[RodTheBawd]

The Jets deserved this one. We couldn't get anything through that defense tonight.

That was the problem. They shouldn't have been trying to get anything through that defense. You've gotta grind, cycle, and control the boards to beat a Maurice team, and the only line I saw doing that effectively was Nash's (and to a lesser extent, the 4th). Getting cute and trying to make passes through 2.5 defenders ain't gonna cut it.

 

[Braxton Wolff]

No puck possession, blindly slapping the puck to nobody or the other team. Is it me or does Eric look skinnier this year?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Watching Semin play is like watching a dumpster fire burn. A multi million dollar dumpster fire.

The same could be said of Mr Eric Staal...

 

[Ole Gil]

The same could be said of Mr Eric Staal...

The difference being dumpster fire Eric Staal plays at about a 60 point pace, while dumpster fire Alex Semin plays at about a 30 point pace.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Plus Eric is a good ontario kid and #notrussian

 

[RodTheBawd]

EStaal gets a pass because he's still helping grow hockey in the south.

 

[Novacane]

You haven't watched the games if you think this year's Staal is the same as last year's Staal.

 

[What the Faulk]

Honestly had to look up how many points Staal has. 7 in 10 with one of his 3 goals as an empty netter. Very quiet production from him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The difference being dumpster fire Eric Staal plays at about a 60 point pace, while dumpster fire Alex Semin plays at about a 30 point pace.

But if you actually watch them on the ice, for all his warts Semin is contributing a lot more to this team than Staal. Which isn't to say he isn't making mistakes in the process, but he's balancing those mistakes against exceptional plays. Staal is in a zone where it's a victory if he connects a pass with someone.

Again though, I don't think this is a mental thing with Staal as it has been in recent years. He looks like he's literally unable to move his feet the way he used to.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Honestly had to look up how many points Staal has. 7 in 10 with one of his 3 goals as an empty netter. Very quiet production from him.

But you're counting 1-1-2 in our first two two games back in early October, before his injury. That was nice production but apparently we're not getting that version of Staal back.

Here's how it's played for him since the injury:

10/28 - Nice play to pick up an assist
11/1 - Deflection assist on a PPG when Mike Smith punched the rebound straight to Tlusty
11/2 - No points
11/4 - Empty net goal
11/7 - PP assist when Lindholm skated the puck in from the red line
11/8 - Scored when Skinner stole the puck and set him up for a wide-open shot from point blank
11/10 - No points
11/13 - No points

They all count the same on the scoreboard, but he hasn't really made a strong play for a point since 11/1. That's 6 games ago and he looks to be trending in the wrong direction.

 

[What the Faulk]

Yeah, I agree. I was just pointing out how easy it is to rack up points sometimes. I don't think he's been particularly noticeable at all, and when he is, it's for the wrong reasons (last night).

 

[tarheelhockey]

Yeah, I agree. I was just pointing out how easy it is to rack up points sometimes. I don't think he's been particularly noticeable at all, and when he is, it's for the wrong reasons (last night).

It's kind of a case study in how ice time determines points to an extent. Skating a lot of PP minutes and being on the ice at the end of games has an inflationary effect even for players who aren't doing much.

 

[What the Faulk]

Yeah that's why I like looking at rate statistics that normalizes for TOI. Riley Nash was pretty good in points/60 last year IIRC

 

[Ole Gil]

Honestly had to look up how many points Staal has. 7 in 10 with one of his 3 goals as an empty netter. Very quiet production from him.

Not just this year. Historically. When people talk about doesn't care lazy Staal and his terrible starts through December, he's usually playing around a 60 point pace. Then he plays at an 80 point pace in the 2nd half to get to 70.

He puts up a lot of points. Even when he looks bad, he still gets points.

There's a definite disconnect between the eye test "He looks slow and bad at hockey" and the results. Whatever it is he does to generate offense is obviously not registering in our brains. Mine included.

---

And I don't buy the Semin is playing an all around game idea this year. So many turnovers and lost battles. He looks very similar to Eric in the way they move about the ice, but as I said, when Semin looks like this, he scores at a 30pt pace. (this year and in last years slump as well, I think?)

You can say it's easy to rack up points. But the only guy putting them up at a 60pt rate when they are playing poorly is Eric.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You can say it's easy to rack up points. But the only guy putting them up at a 60pt rate when they are playing poorly is Eric.

That'll happen when 50% more power play opportunities are involved.

Again, look at how he has scored his points in the month of November. A couple of PP points, an ENG and a play that was 95% the defense (!) and playmaking (!) of Jeff Skinner. They're opportunity points... that's why the "eye test" doesn't mesh with his production.

 

[Ole Gil]

That'll happen when 50% more power play opportunities are involved.

Again, look at how he has scored his points in the month of November. A couple of PP points, an ENG and a play that was 95% the defense (!) and playmaking (!) of Jeff Skinner. They're opportunity points... that's why the "eye test" doesn't mesh with his production.

But he does it every year. His 'bad lazy Staal' offensive production is a 60 point pace. Not just these 10 games. Forever.

 

[tarheelhockey]

But he does it every year. His 'bad lazy Staal' offensive production is a 60 point pace. Not just these 10 games. Forever.

He skates first line, first PP minutes every year. The rest of the team cycles in and out of those opportunities, but he has them in 100% of the games he plays.

How low do you think a center's scoring could realistically go if he never leaves the top line or top PP unit? 50 points? Maybe 40? So he's creating 10 or 20 self-made points over the course of a season? I'm not sure how that compares leaguewide, but at first glance it sure seems close to replacement level as top-6 forwards go.