Pre-Game Talk: Jets at Toronto Tuesday February 9th at 6pm

[Aggie204]

Just shut down this guy and we're good.

I gather the “L” is for Lame boy?

 

[HannuJ]

Just a very quick rant about Beaulieu... WHY?

As illustrated in the shot heat maps below, with Beaulieu on the ice the Jets yield 24% more expected goals than NHL average (5v5). When Beaulieu is not on the ice, the Jets are at around NHL average.

View attachment 404815

can we pin this?

 

[Howard Chuck]

Bringing this over from the PGT.

Barring enough injuries I doubt we see both Heinola and Samberg.
Could it be to avoid ELC hassles that they are waiting until later in the season.
Then they could bring Heinola up when there are fewer games left then what he needs to trigger his first contract? I believe Playoff games don't count towards that.

Is it 9 games that he can play without it kicking in?
He's played 1 so far so maybe when there's 7 games left he gets inserted?
Total speculation on my part but a potential theory.

Seems like Chevy would need a gun put to his head to not slide that ELC.

I agree with you and I don’t know all of the intricacies of ELCs etc. I know hockey is a business, it’s just hard a s a fan to wait and be reasonable

 

[Howard Chuck]

Somebody call Mo.
Plead with him.

maybe he'll adjust the healthy scratch list...?

It’s the impatiently throwing of the paper that makes me laugh. It’s just such an angry thing to do when something annoys you

 

[Aggie204]

More Crossiant in my life please.

 

[larmex99]

Matthews hasn’t looked good lately.......

 

[None]

Just a very quick rant about Beaulieu... WHY?

As illustrated in the shot heat maps below, with Beaulieu on the ice the Jets yield 24% more expected goals than NHL average (5v5). When Beaulieu is not on the ice, the Jets are at around NHL average.

View attachment 404815

Something something public tracking. Yada yada hogwash etc.
15-8-1 or something.

You're not allowed to expect changes because they have a winning record.


I'm being entirely facetious. I dislike the decision to make zero changes as much as anyone.

 

[Jets 31]

If Dubois, Connor and Ehlers gets rolling i like our chances in the next 3 games. And Helly concentrates on stopping the puck not playing it.

 

[Jets 31]

More Crossiant in my life please.

That crossiant got a little burnt last game.

 

[Aggie204]

That crossiant got a little burnt last game.

The stank was already in the net. It just got passed from Helle.

 

[Jets 31]

The stank was already in the net. It just got passed from Helle.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Brilliant...

Possibly.
It will lead to an ass whooping; making the decision to play skill over age much easier for a certain coach.

 

[Whileee]

Something something public tracking. Yada yada hogwash etc.
15-8-1 or something.

You're not allowed to expect changes because they have a winning record.


I'm being entirely facetious. I dislike the decision to make zero changes as much as anyone.

I'm cautious about a variety of takes based on public data and models, but in the case of Beaulieu I literally feel like throwing things at the TV at times, and the metrics reinforce that. It's the same feeling I had when Stuart and Harrison were on the Jets' D.

My view of Thompson has softened a bit. I actually like how he has played at 5v5. My main issue is my usual preference to see a young player that's ready and as good as a vet (or close) to get the playing time. But I'm okay with playing a vet if he's playing well enough.

 

[Whileee]

If Dubois, Connor and Ehlers gets rolling i like our chances in the next 3 games. And Helly concentrates on stopping the puck not playing it.

Agree. I liked what Maurice said about that line today. He made the point that PLD has shown good defensive zone positioning and approach, not cheating for offense but playing beneath the puck. He mentioned how that was something they hoped he would bring to that line. I've noticed the same. They are all talented enough that I think the offense will come, but if they can be a scoring line while not bleeding chances in their own zone, that's a good step forward for the Jets.

 

[Buffdog]

Agree. I liked what Maurice said about that line today. He made the point that PLD has shown good defensive zone positioning and approach, not cheating for offense but playing beneath the puck. He mentioned how that was something they hoped he would bring to that line. I've noticed the same. They are all talented enough that I think the offense will come, but if they can be a scoring line while not bleeding chances in their own zone, that's a good step forward for the Jets.

Ehlers and Connor need some time to acclimate to playing with a centre who plays defense (time with statsny not withstanding)

 

[TEH FIRST NOEL]

I gather the “L” is for Lame boy?

it's probably the "l" in DERELICTE.

 

[Orrrules]

Have to protect our d prospects from the Kraken. Best to just bite the bullet this season.

 

[Orrrules]

Scratch that last post at least for our 1st and 2nd year players as they are exempt.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Brilliant...

This is exactly the right thing to do after a game like that. Give every player a chance at redemption.

 

[Jets 31]

This is exactly the right thing to do after a game like that. Give every player a chance at redemption.

Except for BOOBOO, he's a mess .

 

[None]

I'm cautious about a variety of takes based on public data and models, but in the case of Beaulieu I literally feel like throwing things at the TV at times, and the metrics reinforce that. It's the same feeling I had when Stuart and Harrison were on the Jets' D

I hope that when the league has fully integrated player and puck tracking that they make it publicly available through their API. It would almost certainly increase the precision of a lot of the public analytics.

Beaulieu's usage is bizarre. I hope it's not a case of some kind of private snake oil-like metric that tracks how often he's facing the puck carrier or something that's justifying how he's deployed. The public models aren't so bad that a private analysis is going to completely flip how he's performed. I refuse to believe that; and I'm not completely confident in public tools either. And yet he's been deployed at times opposite as you would expect.
I don't know what to think of it, I'm actually buying the lightning rod conspiracy.

 

[Gm0ney]

Have to protect our d prospects from the Kraken. Best to just bite the bullet this season.

Unless the Jets explicitly protect Stanley, he'll be available to Seattle in the expansion draft...unless you're talking about security through obscurity. Heinola and Samberg will be exempt no matter what the Jets do with them this year.

 

[voyageur]

Just a very quick rant about Beaulieu... WHY?

As illustrated in the shot heat maps below, with Beaulieu on the ice the Jets yield 24% more expected goals than NHL average (5v5). When Beaulieu is not on the ice, the Jets are at around NHL average.

View attachment 404815

Thanks for this -- Beaulieu is the poster boy for analytics matching eyetest. Even his intangibles are tangible.

He should be sitting/resting, but instead we're likely to see PoMo in full-on doubledown mode, playing Beaulieu across all situations and at the worst possible time given the stretch of games we're diving into.

You don't get a Beaulieu "going" by playing him more. He's already going as he means to go on.

Jesus Christ guys you realize he was a 0 in the +/- before last game, and since we have only scored 1 PK goal, it's not skewed, that's 5 on 5 folks. That one bad game allowed him to catch up to Morrissey in GA/60, but if you say anything negative about Josh, who is supposed to be leading this team, there will be stats from 2016-2018 to support him. Or a knock on his d partners. Well hell Beaulieu had 28 points and was +8 in 2016-2017. That's only 3 off Josh's career high, which he isn't going to break this year, in spite of QBing PP1.

Who's been the better PKer this year? Please enlighten us common folk. And hey who is the best PP team this year? I can tell you that shutting down that PP is going to be the key for our team, and staying out of the box. Hopefully the boys have been watching some video.

But it's getting to be sickening, quite frankly, these shitposts attacking one player. Maybe we need counter shitposts or a quarter jar for all the shit.

I hope we win this game. This is a big series to measure ourselves. To win on the road, going to need a team effort and good goaltending.

 

[ps241]

I hope that when the league has fully integrated player and puck tracking that they make it publicly available through their API. It would almost certainly increase the precision of a lot of the public analytics.

Beaulieu's usage is bizarre. I hope it's not a case of some kind of private snake oil-like metric that tracks how often he's facing the puck carrier or something that's justifying how he's deployed. The public models aren't so bad that a private analysis is going to completely flip how he's performed. I refuse to believe that; and I'm not completely confident in public tools either. And yet he's been deployed at times opposite as you would expect.
I don't know what to think of it, I'm actually buying the lightning rod conspiracy.

Nice measured response to a measured base post with a light your hair on fire fan moment after viewing heat maps.

Either there is a gap between the public and private models, a different team priority with the same models, or there is a superstition or belief around roles needed to optimize team chemistry.

Maybe you have to live and travel with the team to get “it”.

I do know this is incredibly common in the NHL.