Post-Game Talk: Jets 4- Preds 3 in OT

[Jets 31]

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Some people focus on the positives, some focus on the negatives

 

[NA Hockey]

As an aside, I think Gabe maybe the best down low PP player in the league but his 5 on 5 game has been mediocre for long periods of time.

 

[JetsFan815]

Why 8 years? You’d think he’d be the most successful we’ve ever had. Doubt Bryan Little or Wheeler were better 5v 5

wheeler i think 15-16 is up there.

this year in terms of a combo of 5v5 goal differential (im calling it 5v5 +/- for keystrokes sake lol) (1st, +27), total points (1st, 43 pts) or pts/60 (1st, 2.53), ehlers has been our most effective fwd at 5v5. the difference in goal-differential is stark. he's basically 2x our next highest fwd (Lowry and Perfetti at +14), and +29 from the lowest of the "regulars" at fwd in KC (excluding Gustafsson here who would be the absolute lowest).

edit: didn't realize he actually ranks 6th in the league at Fwd for 5v5 +/- behind Hyman, Mackinnon, Matthews, Mcdavid and Aho. off quick glance Mackinnon, Matthews and Eberle have similar gaps from 2nd placed fwds on their teams.

I think Wheeler and Ehlers are close. We can't straight up compare their P/60 as Wheeler's peak was in a much more lower scoring era and I am reluctant to compare Goals+/- as Wheeler's had only 1 peak season in front of Helle and Ehlers entire peak has been in front of Helle.

If you just look at their peaks and compare league-wide rankings to negate era effects, it is actually very tight (via EvolvingHockey):

	P/60 (5v5)	RelTM xG+/- per 60	P/60 (all situations)
Wheeler Peak(12-18)	26th	36th	26th
Ehlers Peak (17-now)	20th	40th	41st

P/60 gives straight up scoring impact and the RelTM xG+/-gives us an approximation their non-scoring 5v5 impact, they are both close Ehlers ahead in one, Wheeler in the other. If we include PP, Wheeler pulls ahead.

I personally have peak-Wheeler over peak-Ehlers, they were very close 5v5 at their peak but Wheeler's durability during his peak gives him an edge for me. The guy barely missed any games during this period and was a bull. Ofcourse PP impact pulls him clearly ahead.

Either way I think they are 1 and 2 on Jets and I don't think anyone even comes close. I would imagine a massive dropoff after them and it would be close between Ladd-Scheifele-Perreault for the next spot a full tier down, then PLD-Little vying off for the next tier.

 

[WolfHouse]

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Some people focus on the positives, some focus on the negatives

I'll use that with revenue canada this year

 

[DRW204]

Have to say the street parties really don't have much of an appeal for me, too old don't like crowds but for many it's something they really want to be a part of so I'm happy that they get a chance to celebrate.

i still enjoy partying, tailgates, street-parties & whatnot from time to time. i don't even mind the cover charge if it keeps the undesirables out. but just something about the 17-18 one was different. maybe it was the team or the pandemonium of 15k+ fans, not sure.

 

[Gm0ney]

View attachment 849468

Some people focus on the positives, some focus on the negatives

I'm as glass-half-full as the next guy, but I'm not going to say it's half full when it's 3/4 empty...

The water in this analogy is the 2 points and Hellebuyck's performance.

The empty glass part is the nearly universal terrible play, the blown lead, the reuniting of CSV, the benching of Perfetti and Ehlers, the not-benching of Pionk.

 

[JetsFan815]

How are we 2 wins away from 50 this season though? I love Ehlers but he was absolutely horrible last night, i'm only saying last night but he was awful. I agree Bowness falls back on Scheifele and Connor a little too much but last night Bowness had to make a change. I actually thought Connor played pretty good last night .

We are at 48 wins on the season in part due to that top line not playing together for most of the season due to injuries. By my estimate, this version of the Jets top line has started 12 games together and the Jets are 6-6-0 during these games and the Jets only faced teams currently in the playoffs just 3 times in these games so it was relatively easy competition than they are gonna face from here on.

If Ehlers was terrible last night is the only option to reunite 81-55-13? Esp since 81-23-91 line had been playing well and scoring goals? Could the coach not have kept the 2nd line that was doing well together and instead swapped Ehlers and Namestnikov? Or Ehlers and Toffolli? Or even Ehlers and Barron for that matter?

I think the frustration @Gm0ney and others are experiencing has less to do with Ehlers and more to do with one of the worst 1st lines in the league being reunited again right in time for the playoffs (something that felt inevitable already). Also we all know the change in lines is permanent not just a one off for last night.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Apples and oranges.

Replace the word 'politicians' with surgeons and try your argument again.

Actually, it goes for surgeons too. People often get a 2nd opinion and sometimes it is very different from the 1st one.

Growing up, I was taught to question everything. Not to deny, or argue pointlessly, but simply to examine without automatically conceding to authority.

If you find that objectionable what is it you expect to find here?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

I recognize this avatar. Been a while it seems, nice to see you around still.

Thanks buggsy!

 

[Flair Hay]

Actual results:

I've been waiting for them from Ehlers since day 1.

Talk to me about success when he scores 75+ points and plays a full season.

This is fair, the total results matter. There is a chicken and egg thing here though. Part of the reason he scores less points is due to less minutes. Both 5v5 and PP1. He indisputably is more productive per minute than any other Jet.

Ehlers despite all the fancy stats and promise needs good players to make him better.

He makes everyone around him better by the numbers as well. This is true of most players.

Been saying it for years. his hands and feet are three steps ahead but his brain is 2 behind.

probably a fair assessment.

He is unpredictable, injury prone, error prone, and scores less than other Jets.

unpredictable is uaed with a negative connotation here but im not sure it actually is negative.

while losing puck battles and making too many hotdog passes... His zone entry is inflated by the many many times he flies in to the zone, then does a big skate, dumps or loses a puck somewhere , ending up in a turnover, and then its a mad skate back to the D-zone with almost no actual useful possession time.

the entry stats arent inflated, he is outstanding at this. What you are talking about likely is showing itself in his total points already

as for results? when they really matter?
When the team has lost top liners etc & in the playoffs? He disappears...
4 goals 8 A in 32 GP.
#55 19/13 for 32 points in 37 games.

he is what he is and he deserves what he has.

Again, lack of playoff performance plagued him early. Last couple playoffs he has missed lots of action but did have an OT winner. Big chunk of that was 2017 in his 2nd year. But absolutely a fair criticism.

 

[JetsFan815]

Hamilton was strongly hinting at it being the case a week or two ago on WST. I was surprised at how strongly it was inferred when he said it.

Do you have a link to what Hamilton said? I'm not inclined to fully believe him as he's not been covering the Jets this season so I question the amount of access/sources that he has but it would interesting to read nonetheless. I know he had been implying similar stuff on podcasts last season when Wheeler was here.

 

[Flair Hay]

Death

Taxes

Every fan base on HFBoards gets driven nuts by their coach

Correct

 

[Buffdog]

We are at 48 wins on the season in part due to that top line not playing together for most of the season due to injuries. By my estimate, this version of the Jets top line has started 12 games together and the Jets are 6-6-0 during these games and the Jets only faced teams currently in the playoffs just 3 times in these games so it was relatively easy competition than they are gonna face from here on.

If Ehlers was terrible last night is the only option to reunite 81-55-13? Esp since 81-23-91 line had been playing well and scoring goals? Could the coach not have kept the 2nd line that was doing well together and instead swapped Ehlers and Namestnikov? Or Ehlers and Toffolli? Or even Ehlers and Barron for that matter?

I think the frustration @Gm0ney and others are experiencing has less to do with Ehlers and more to do with one of the worst 1st lines in the league being reunited again right in time for the playoffs (something that felt inevitable already). Also we all know the change in lines is permanent not just a one off for last night.

It seems like the narrative has changed from "Ehlers needs to be on the top line" to just "the top line shouldn't be Connor - Schief".

Much to your chagrin (and the chagrin of many others), you're probably going to see Bones flip flop back and forth between those two options based on how the games are going.

At the end of the day, due to the limitations of some of our forwards, there is no perfect line combo that is not going to have its flaws. Schief was around 25th in scoring for centres in the NHL last time I checked, so its going to be difficult to create a 1st line around him that beats other teams 1st lines consistently in a best vs best matchup. Having Connor on his wing creates some well documented deficiencies, but as we saw in the LA and Nashville games, putting Ehlers there doesn't make it a whole lot better

Thats why we need Lowry's line to step up and create a tough matchup for the other team and have one of Schief and Monahan to feast on their matchup. This will be harder to do on the road than at home, obviously

 

[johnnyonthspot]

The trend I like is that we went from playing poorly and losing to playing poorly and finding a way to win

We've won 4 in a row, but you would never know it

What I don't understand is that the same people who are pissed that we played poorly and won are usually pissed if we played well and lost

I agree they are finding a way to win but usually because of Helly or the other team having a low shooting percentage. I would not characterize myself as being 'pissed' rather concerned that all this 'winning' may result in a first round exit because they play just well enough to win regular season games but nowhere near the level of play you need to win playoff games. I think you would admit they are two very different styles of hockey?

 

[Flair Hay]

We're currently on the second longest winning streak (4) of all teams in a playoff spot (Isles have won 5 in a row). Last night wasn't the prettiest but there are going to be games like that where you find a way to win if you're gonna make a run in the playoffs.

With the cap and the resulting parity in the league, it's completely unrealistic to expect to dominate every game and win.

As for the lines, ESV has had their shit pushed in vs the two playoff teams they've faced. Supporters have moved the goalposts (big surprise) and said "well, they did better than CSV". But that wasn't the promise. "ESV is a dominant top line that will win their matchups and give us a better chance to win games! Just look at these spreadsheets!" That's what we were all told

I know that the perceived negativity can be tiring.

We had a top line that has been statistically one of the worst in the NHL this year. We had a different version of a top line that performed extremely well and didn't seem to be given a chance for a while.

The different version has had its share of struggles. It is still performing better overall on the season. By a pretty big margin by NHL standards.

To me its about what the facts are telling me and not what others positions are and if they are right or wrong?

It's true the ESV seemed to crash down to Earth a bit. But even when it dropped off it still hasn't dropped below the level we are accustomed to from CSV.

We have a punchers chance with either but it still seems like one configuration gives us a better chance to win than the other.

 

[Buffdog]

I agree they are finding a way to win but usually because of Helly or the other team having a low shooting percentage. I would not characterize myself as being 'pissed' rather concerned that all this 'winning' may result in a first round exit because they play just well enough to win regular season games but nowhere near the level of play you need to win playoff games. I think you would admit they are two very different styles of hockey?

They definitely seem to be playing differently than in December, but I'm not sure why.

That said, I strongly believe that it's not a negative to have Helle take over a game and win it for us any more than if McDavid or Mackinnon did the same. He's the best player on the planet at his position this year. Hockey is a team game, and the goaltender is arguably the most important player on the team.

I don't understand why people go "well, you only won because your goalie played great". So what. Winning is the point. It doesn't have to look the same for every team

 

[bustamente]

i still enjoy partying, tailgates, street-parties & whatnot from time to time. i don't even mind the cover charge if it keeps the undesirables out. but just something about the 17-18 one was different. maybe it was the team or the pandemonium of 15k+ fans, not sure.

Yeah, the 17-18 White Out parties just got bigger and bigger as each round ended. I did enough partying in my 20's 30's to last me a couple of lifetimes, but I really get a kick watching all those people gathered together wearing white cheering on this team outside and and inside.

 

[Gm0ney]

They definitely seem to be playing differently than in December, but I'm not sure why.

That said, I strongly believe that it's not a negative to have Helle take over a game and win it for us any more than if McDavid or Mackinnon did the same. He's the best player on the planet at his position this year. Hockey is a team game, and the goaltender is arguably the most important player on the team.

I don't understand why people go "well, you only won because your goalie played great". So what. Winning is the point. It doesn't have to look the same for every team

The buy-in from October-December seems to have disappeared. For a while there, everyone was pulling in the same direction, doing what needed to be done. But it's been a while since we've seen anything resembling that. The Jets still win their fair share...still lots of talent. Lowry's line is still performing. Hellebuyck's still in Vezina mode. Morrissey is a force. It's just not that cohesive team effort and I don't know how much they can accomplish without it.

 

[johnnyonthspot]

They definitely seem to be playing differently than in December, but I'm not sure why.

That said, I strongly believe that it's not a negative to have Helle take over a game and win it for us any more than if McDavid or Mackinnon did the same. He's the best player on the planet at his position this year. Hockey is a team game, and the goaltender is arguably the most important player on the team.

I don't understand why people go "well, you only won because your goalie played great". So what. Winning is the point. It doesn't have to look the same for every team

I am not sure why either and I guess it is frustrating to see them unable to get back to that style of play. If they could then they would be a contender.

I agree that Helly saving their bacon on a nightly basis is like a MacKinnon or McDavid leading their teams to wins but it is harder for a goalie to carry the load (i.e.) play as many games as a skater plus they have a supporting cast and can take a minute or two off after every shift whereas if Helly stands on his head and faces 45 shots he is, understandably, worn down for the next game because the team defence did not help him out at all.

I appreciate the discussion. It is cathartic! haha

If they drop both games to DAL and COl I hope you can walk me back onto the bandwagon in time for the start of the playoffs. haha

 

[Buffdog]

The buy-in from October-December seems to have disappeared. For a while there, everyone was pulling in the same direction, doing what needed to be done. But it's been a while since we've seen anything resembling that. The Jets still win their fair share...still lots of talent. Lowry's line is still performing. Hellebuyck's still in Vezina mode. Morrissey is a force. It's just not that cohesive team effort and I don't know how much they can accomplish without it.

I think that if the team had that buy in again, there'd be a lot less griping about line combos because it wouldn't matter as much

 

[Buffdog]

I am not sure why either and I guess it is frustrating to see them unable to get back to that style of play. If they could then they would be a contender.

I agree that Helly saving their bacon on a nightly basis is like a MacKinnon or McDavid leading their teams to wins but it is harder for a goalie to carry the load (i.e.) play as many games as a skater plus they have a supporting cast and can take a minute or two off after every shift whereas if Helly stands on his head and faces 45 shots he is, understandably, worn down for the next game because the team defence did not help him out at all.

I appreciate the discussion. It is cathartic! haha

If they drop both games to DAL and COl I hope you can walk me back onto the bandwagon in time for the start of the playoffs. haha

I think at the end of the day, both Dallas and Colorado are high quality teams. If the Jets find a way to win both, I don't give a f*** what it looks like. I'd also be happy to see signs of the dominant Jets from months ago even if we lose competitive games

That said, even if they play like shit and get blown out and swept in 4 games in the playoffs, those aren't the kind of things that I let upset me

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I think at the end of the day, both Dallas and Colorado are high quality teams. If the Jets find a way to win both, I don't give a f*** what it looks like. I'd also be happy to see signs of the dominant Jets from months ago even if we lose competitive games

That said, even if they play like shit and get blown out and swept in 4 games in the playoffs, those aren't the kind of things that I let upset me

I really do not want to see a sweep unless it is the Jets doing it and it will upset me if they get swept or at least validate my feelings about their buy-in since January or lack thereof

 

[scelaton]

Your point is valid, but I'm still left surprised at all the overwhelming negativity in so many posts.

I would expect things like "glad we won because we sure stunk in the second", instead I'm reading that our Jets are trash, the coach is a rigid idiot with no idea about what he's doing, and [insert player's name] is a disaster and needs to be in the press box.

I won't go so far as to question some posters' mental health (because I'm just a girl and everyone knows that we become totally irrational and lose our minds for a few days each month) but there's evidence aplenty in here of people with real problems.

I will take a crack at responding to your observations.

HF Jets is a microcosm of the larger sports world and a slice of the wider world in general. A range of people you would not meet outside your familiar world are here in full, anonymous splendor-- some cheerful, some bitter; some articulate, some write madness when they actually feel sadness; some humble, some needing to win every battle, as if they were still on the ice. And, of course, lots with physical and mental problems. Most all of them love the team, but aren't we all sometimes hardest on the ones we love?

Optimism/pessimism is, to a large degree, hard-wired, so it's pointless trying to change people's basic nature. That's a mistake I see made constantly and it's just frustrating for both sides. It's especially frustrating to tell a smart, analytical, pessimist hockey nerd that things are great when the world is burning up, its resources exhausted, the rich are profiting from it all AND Bowness picks the wrong line combinations.

The last thing is, people change over time. I joined HFJ 12 years ago as diversion from real life and was just happy the Jets were back. Over the years, as I am wont to do, I became a student of the game, put in (too) many hours of reading and now and consider myself quite knowledgeable. Masters level, if you will. I love the pure passion of fandom but love the analytical side as well, and the critical review that comes with it. Love squared. But the thing about love is, you have to pick your partners carefully.

 

[Gm0ney]

I will take a crack at responding to your observations.

HF Jets is a microcosm of the larger sports world and a slice of the wider world in general. A range of people you would not meet outside your familiar world are here in full, anonymous splendor-- some cheerful, some bitter; some articulate, some write madness when they actually feel sadness; some humble, some needing to win every battle, as if they were still on the ice. And, of course, lots with physical and mental problems. Most all of them love the team, but aren't we all sometimes hardest on the ones we love?

Optimism/pessimism is, to a large degree, hard-wired, so it's pointless trying to change people's basic nature. That's a mistake I see made constantly and it's just frustrating for both sides. It's especially frustrating to tell a smart, analytical, pessimist hockey nerd that things are great when the world is burning up, its resources exhausted, the rich are profiting from it all AND Bowness picks the wrong line combinations.

The last thing is, people change over time. I joined HFJ 12 years ago as diversion from real life and was just happy the Jets were back. Over the years, as I am wont to do, I became a student of the game, put in (too) many hours of reading and now and consider myself quite knowledgeable. Masters level, if you will. I love the pure passion of fandom but love the analytical side as well, and the critical review that comes with it. Love squared. But the thing about love is, you have to pick your partners carefully.

I've said before there are different types of fans. Some just want to ride the roller coaster and some want to know how the f*** we're not falling out of our seats when we do a loop...but sometimes the two types annoy each other... because if you just want the fun ride you don't want to hear about centripetal force. I'm sure a lot of hockey fans were under the impression that there wouldn't be any math questions.

 

[Buffdog]

Optimism/pessimism is, to a large degree, hard-wired, so it's pointless trying to change people's basic nature. That's a mistake I see made constantly and it's just frustrating for both sides. It's especially frustrating to tell a smart, analytical, pessimist hockey nerd that things are great when the world is burning up, its resources exhausted, the rich are profiting from it all AND Bowness picks the wrong line combinations.

I'll happily take the title of "the one that needs to win every battle"... and this is one I'll pick

In the history of our species, there has never been a better time to be alive than right now, and there no better place than right here

Three or four generations ago you had a constant worry about having to starve to death or die of disease. Now you have enough food in your pantry to keep you alive for a month

In the past 150 years someone came up with a way that you can push a button and your human waste is taken away vs it seeping into he water you pull from your well. Turn a knob, and ypu have unlimited clean water. There's a kid in Africa right now drinking out of a mud puddle FFS

We have it so goddamn good that we need to find petty little shit to worry about like who wins a sports game or worse, which players play the game together

Your attitude isn't as hardwired as you think. How you respond to stimuli is a choice, but most don't know how to use it