I don't think we should throw out Blake's first season because of an anomalous shooting %, anymore than we can throw out this somewhat 'good' year for Burmistrov by virtue of a possibly anomalous Corsi rating.
All said, Blake to Burmistrov isn't a good comparison.
Huh???
It's not throwing out, it's stating that that production isn't a good standard of Wheeler's abilities at the time.
You can actually do that...
One, there's a difference between progression where you have a directional trend and statistical anomaly where you can even see the huge blimp.
Two, that there is a difference between the two is the whole point to what stat people do with Corsi and sh%.
By it's very nature SH% tend to be hugely affected by natural variance due to sample sizes (20 goals versus over 1000 corsi events). The difference between the two is the whole reason and point to people using Corsi instead of +/-.
They aren't comparable stylistically and aren't likely to evolve into similar players, I agree with that.
But, if you ignore the inflation in Wheeler's 2008 year (both personal sh% and inflated 12%!!! On-Ice Sh% which only 3 players in the entire NHL had above in 2011-12), it shows that it can take a while for players to gain their offensive game.
In fact, when it comes to progression, players
usually peak goalscoring at 23-25, followed by 2-4 years of plateau goalscoring with assists increasing (looking at per min or per game).
Now there is a chance that Burmistrov may end up in the worst-case-scenario and end up being stagnant... you don't assume the low percentage chance floor.
As they say: prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and expect something in the middle.
