Player Discussion JESPERI KOTKANIEMI

[AhosDatsyukian]

So how are we feeling about him this year? Gonna take that next step building off of last year's 2nd half of the season success and get 50-60 points this year and going forward? Amazingly the kid is still just 23 years old. Doing all the little things right and such an overall solid player, man what a steal it was to get him from le habs for that cheap OS. I for one am thrilled that we have him long term and view him as a great 2nd tier core player joining 1st tier guys like Aho, Svech and hopefully soon Slavin

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[Nikishin Go Boom]

Doesn’t need to be on the PP

 

[MinJaBen]

Did someone send up the “Habs Signal”?

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

My prediction is that KK could very well get somewhere between 40-55 points. It'll depend on his usage, but I'm quite positive about this guy. His trajectory has been quite strong over the last couple of seasons.

 

[HisIceness]

Don't know but I'd like a breakout season since he's under contract for a while.

 

[Stickpucker]

Did someone send up the “Habs Signal”?

This would make a cool ai drawing.

 

[raynman]

Ppg player so far this season get wrecked Habs

 

[Joe McGrath]

Ppg player so far this season get wrecked Habs

Don’t sell the kid short, he’s on pace for a record breaking 82 shorthanded assists.!!!

 

[bleedgreen]

It’s a big year imo. We may say as a team we don’t care what role he ends up playing but with Staal around and now re signed it’s pretty clear the most obvious role we signed him for is the one he’s in. 2C. He’s on the cheap side if he fills that role well (that’s so us), and he would be still be good value as the 3C - which up to now is the actual role his play points at.

I’m not a fan at all of saying “his linemates will make up for it, all he needs to do is be Staal Jr.” This feels like an apologist sentiment, and I just don’t agree. I think a team with our aspirations needs someone dangerous in that role, and he should be not only be complimenting but raising the level of his linemates.

I used to set the bar in my head for Staal at 50 pts. If he could hit that then all the other things he brings as a player would make it worth the contract as well as the role (2C) he played. Koko doesn’t have close to that level of versatility so I have a hard time setting the bar that low for him, especially with the greatly improved quality of linemates he’s blessed with. He should be at a minimum of 60 pts, good on draws while being physical and defensively responsible. Any less than that it becomes less about whether or not Koko was worth it as much as it’s about simply needing someone better sitting in that role. Maybe Staal declines and becomes 4C and we get a better 2C.

Right now I’m still pretty 50/50 on whether or not he was worth the fuss (due to the role issue) and by signing him long term in Staal’s presence we may have shot ourselves in the foot by limiting how good our team can be because his role is an important one. I am happy with the overall improvement I’ve seen through last season, so I’m still hopeful.

 

[Joe McGrath]

It’s a big year imo. We may say as a team we don’t care what role he ends up playing but with Staal around and now re signed it’s pretty clear the most obvious role we signed him for is the one he’s in. 2C. He’s on the cheap side if he fills that role well (that’s so us), and he would be still be good value as the 3C - which up to now is the actual role his play points at.

I’m not a fan at all of saying “his linemates will make up for it, all he needs to do is be Staal Jr.” This feels like an apologist sentiment, and I just don’t agree. I think a team with our aspirations needs someone dangerous in that role, and he should be not only be complimenting but raising the level of his linemates.

I used to set the bar in my head for Staal at 50 pts. If he could hit that then all the other things he brings as a player would make it worth the contract as well as the role (2C) he played. Koko doesn’t have close to that level of versatility so I have a hard time setting the bar that low for him, especially with the greatly improved quality of linemates he’s blessed with. He should be at a minimum of 60 pts, good on draws while being physical and defensively responsible. Any less than that it becomes less about whether or not Koko was worth it as much as it’s about simply needing someone better sitting in that role. Maybe Staal declines and becomes 4C and we get a better 2C.

Right now I’m still pretty 50/50 on whether or not he was worth the fuss (due to the role issue) and by signing him long term in Staal’s presence we may have shot ourselves in the foot by limiting how good our team can be because his role is an important one. I am happy with the overall improvement I’ve seen through last season, so I’m still hopeful.

Vegas had William Karlsson as their 2C last year, making $5.9 million and he had 53 points. That seems like what the ask should be for Koko (or thereabouts) this season IMO.

The unique thing about the way they use him with Svech and Necas is that both wings are puck dominant play driver types. You don’t see that very often. He’s the Bunting/Tlusty/Hornqvist/ General shit disturber, but he’s also a center. It’s odd. I like the player, I like the role, I just need to see the production keep increasing.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

It’s a big year imo. We may say as a team we don’t care what role he ends up playing but with Staal around and now re signed it’s pretty clear the most obvious role we signed him for is the one he’s in. 2C. He’s on the cheap side if he fills that role well (that’s so us), and he would be still be good value as the 3C - which up to now is the actual role his play points at.

I’m not a fan at all of saying “his linemates will make up for it, all he needs to do is be Staal Jr.” This feels like an apologist sentiment, and I just don’t agree. I think a team with our aspirations needs someone dangerous in that role, and he should be not only be complimenting but raising the level of his linemates.

I used to set the bar in my head for Staal at 50 pts. If he could hit that then all the other things he brings as a player would make it worth the contract as well as the role (2C) he played. Koko doesn’t have close to that level of versatility so I have a hard time setting the bar that low for him, especially with the greatly improved quality of linemates he’s blessed with. He should be at a minimum of 60 pts, good on draws while being physical and defensively responsible. Any less than that it becomes less about whether or not Koko was worth it as much as it’s about simply needing someone better sitting in that role. Maybe Staal declines and becomes 4C and we get a better 2C.

Right now I’m still pretty 50/50 on whether or not he was worth the fuss (due to the role issue) and by signing him long term in Staal’s presence we may have shot ourselves in the foot by limiting how good our team can be because his role is an important one. I am happy with the overall improvement I’ve seen through last season, so I’m still hopeful.

I get everything you’re saying and agree to some extent for this season.

A couple of key facts to keep in mind though as the discussion regarding “role” plays itself out.

Kotkaniemi is 23 years old signed at $4.8m for the next 7 seasons.

Staal is 35 years old signed at $2.9m for the next 4 seasons.

I agree for this year it’s a little wonky - KK isn’t the gamebreaking 2C you’d want a contender to have, and while he’s a very good and reasonably priced 3C that role is blocked by Staal. But you mentioned, Staal may go to 4C. Or KK may get better. Or any number of things could happen. What we do have is a young promising player locked into an exceptionally reasonable deal. So with respect to “was it worth the fuss,” I think it absolutely was. Is anyone all that mad if Martinook-Staal-Fast is actually our “4th” line, as soon as possibly even next season? I’m not. Or, KK scores 60 this year and we don’t even have the role issue because he’s firmly a 2C.

 

[Svechhammer]

Did someone send up the “Habs Signal”?

ai went with a combo Habs and Leafs signal and it's the most HFB thing I've ever seen

 

[bleedgreen]

I get everything you’re saying and agree to some extent for this season.

A couple of key facts to keep in mind though as the discussion regarding “role” plays itself out.

Kotkaniemi is 23 years old signed at $4.8m for the next 7 seasons.

Staal is 35 years old signed at $2.9m for the next 4 seasons.

I agree for this year it’s a little wonky - KK isn’t the gamebreaking 2C you’d want a contender to have, and while he’s a very good and reasonably priced 3C that role is blocked by Staal. But you mentioned, Staal may go to 4C. Or KK may get better. Or any number of things could happen. What we do have is a young promising player locked into an exceptionally reasonable deal. So with respect to “was it worth the fuss,” I think it absolutely was. Is anyone all that mad if Martinook-Staal-Fast is actually our “4th” line, as soon as possibly even next season? I’m not. Or, KK scores 60 this year and we don’t even have the role issue because he’s firmly a 2C.

Well the coach is a factor in all of this. Even if Staal’s line becomes the “fourth” it’s still going to be featured as much as he can justify getting it out there. They’ll have to retire to play less.

Overall I agree with you.

 

[bleedgreen]

Vegas had William Karlsson as their 2C last year, making $5.9 million and he had 53 points. That seems like what the ask should be for Koko (or thereabouts) this season IMO.

The unique thing about the way they use him with Svech and Necas is that both wings are puck dominant play driver types. You don’t see that very often. He’s the Bunting/Tlusty/Hornqvist/ General shit disturber, but he’s also a center. It’s odd. I like the player, I like the role, I just need to see the production keep increasing.

I agree, I’ll just counter that Vegas has room for growth and more dangerous offense in the 3C role. They can use that 3C to create more offense (which they do) if they feel Karlsson’s offensive impact isn’t high enough, they don’t have a Staal locking up that spot. They have Chandler Stephenson who’s a 65 pt guy which makes me question who is the actual 2C is over there. They also have Roy chipping in more offense (30-40 pts) than we get out of Drury to this point.

I’m with you overall, I don’t dislike Koko or what he brings I just really want more production. I don’t think Vegas is a good comparable though.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Well the coach is a factor in all of this. Even if Staal’s line becomes the “fourth” it’s still going to be featured as much as he can justify getting it out there. They’ll have to retire to play less.

Overall I agree with you.

Yeah, that's definitely part of it. To me it puts back on the table the notion of the wingers making up for the production, since Rod uses his lineup so weirdly. I think the whole "we don't number our lines" nonsense is 90% because Rod more or less actually thinks of Staal as his 2C but knows he can't reasonably call that line his 2nd line. In Rod's head, that makes KK a highly above average 3C. But since the 3C in Rod's head actually plays with the second line wingers, that's where "his linemates will make up for it he just needs to be Staal Jr." comes in. So is KK the poster child for Stanley Cup winning 2C? No, at least not yet. But is Svech-KK-Necas a pretty darn good representation of a Stanley Cup winning 2nd line? I think so.

I don't see him ever being an offensive play driver, so your comparison to Staal is apt. I think he more or less settles into that role as Staal declines, and holds down the fort overall-play-wise while getting carried a bit points-wise at the "2C" spot until then.

 

[Svechhammer]

Put it this way. I don't see a pressing need to improve 2C. We can win a cup with Svech-KK-Necas. I would welcome a trade that brings in a luxury add that pushes his usage to 3rd or 4th line mins, because that would give us a filthy deep set of forward lines, but I don't think that's a need anymore.

Should he continue to be our 2C going forward, his offensive production is going to at least match his contract going forward, as I suspect he'll settle into a 40 ppy player, with potential to bring that up to 60, depending on how effectively his wingers start finding the back of the net. And on top of all that, he seems to have grown a lot stronger on his skates and is beginning to contribute well defensively. Not much to dislike about his game anymore.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah, that's definitely part of it. To me it puts back on the table the notion of the wingers making up for the production, since Rod uses his lineup so weirdly. I think the whole "we don't number our lines" nonsense is 90% because Rod more or less actually thinks of Staal as his 2C but knows he can't reasonably call that line his 2nd line. In Rod's head, that makes KK a highly above average 3C. But since the 3C in Rod's head actually plays with the second line wingers, that's where "his linemates will make up for it he just needs to be Staal Jr." comes in. So is KK the poster child for Stanley Cup winning 2C? No, at least not yet. But is Svech-KK-Necas a pretty darn good representation of a Stanley Cup winning 2nd line? I think so.

I don't see him ever being an offensive play driver, so your comparison to Staal is apt. I think he more or less settles into that role as Staal declines, and holds down the fort overall-play-wise while getting carried a bit points-wise at the "2C" spot until then.

I get your mindset but yes it’s one that I’m debating against here. All we need is for Necas to struggle out of the gates to produce solo offense (unfair), and for it to compound with Svech needing time to get back into game shape and the great potential second line becomes more of an issue. We as a group REALLY want Koko to work out to the point of being very forgiving of him, and I can’t help feeling many will just turn on Necas at that point because for some reason we have no qualms about doing that. At that point I’ll be looking squarely at the guy to the middle who’s supposed to be controlling the flow in both directions. It’s unlikely that Necas will have fumbled many easy opportunities that Koko set up for him. Which would be the benefit of having a better offensive center there of course.

So I’m hoping like everyone else Koko becomes that guy.

 

[Svechhammer]

I get your mindset but yes it’s one that I’m debating against here. All we need is for Necas to struggle out of the gates to produce solo offense (unfair), and for it to compound with Svech needing time to get back into game shape and the great potential second line becomes more of an issue. We as a group REALLY want Koko to work out to the point of being very forgiving of him, and I can’t help feeling many will just turn on Necas at that point because for some reason we have no qualms about doing that. At that point I’ll be looking squarely at the guy to the middle who’s supposed to be controlling the flow in both directions. It’s unlikely that Necas will have fumbled many easy opportunities that Koko set up for him. Which would be the benefit of having a better offensive center there of course.

So I’m hoping like everyone else Koko becomes that guy.

If Necas struggles, that's on Necas, not KK.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If Necas struggles, that's on Necas, not KK.

I don't think that's his point. I think his point is that we can get away with a 40 point 2C because of the productivity of Necas and Svech. If Necas or Svech struggles, as all players go through slumps, then having a 40 point 2C may not be something we can get away with.

It's not just about each players individual production. The whole point of having depth is that when one player struggles, another one is there to puck up the slack.

 

[Stickpucker]

I will say that pass he made was pretty slick.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

worth noting that Koko started out last year so incredibly poorly with like 1 point in his first 15 or something (someone confirm how bad my memory is). The last 1/2 to 2/3 of the season though he was a clear stud 2C and scoring at like a 60+ point pace. Also I thought there was a pretty noticeable improvement in his skating and confidence later in the year which seems to have translated to this year as well.

Will have to let it play out but I think JK at 2C is among the least of our concerns. I like the Vegas center group comparison, and also there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Our D group is so insanely stacked and our wingers and forward group as a whole are very deep, both of those better than many Cup winners who had the more traditional skilled play-driving top 6 center group.

 

[Daeavorn]

If KK can hit 50 points while being a responsible 200ft player I'm A-OK with that.

End of last season he finished at a 53ish point pace. Would anyone be upset with that? I don't think so.

 

[Svechhammer]

I don't think that's his point. I think his point is that we can get away with a 40 point 2C because of the productivity of Necas and Svech. If Necas or Svech struggles, as all players go through slumps, then having a 40 point 2C may not be something we can get away with.

It's not just about each players individual production. The whole point of having depth is that when one player struggles, another one is there to puck up the slack.

Oh fair point. I didn't consider that, but I'm also working on 4 hours of sleep last night, so I will own misreading/misunderstanding what he said

 

[bleedgreen]

Put it this way. I don't see a pressing need to improve 2C. We can win a cup with Svech-KK-Necas. I would welcome a trade that brings in a luxury add that pushes his usage to 3rd or 4th line mins, because that would give us a filthy deep set of forward lines, but I don't think that's a need anymore.

Should he continue to be our 2C going forward, his offensive production is going to at least match his contract going forward, as I suspect he'll settle into a 40 ppy player, with potential to bring that up to 60, depending on how effectively his wingers start finding the back of the net. And on top of all that, he seems to have grown a lot stronger on his skates and is beginning to contribute well defensively. Not much to dislike about his game anymore.

If Necas struggles, that's on Necas, not KK.

BS 5v5. This is that hypocrisy I struggle with. We’re fine with Koko struggling offensively all day, but expect Necas to produce regardless of who he’s playing with and when he’s the one driving the play all day.

If you’re going after him for pp inefficiencies, if he’s playing with good players so be it.

Necas takes abuse we are reluctant to give others. It’s always been perplexing. He’s a hell of a player even with his flaws.

I don't think that's his point. I think his point is that we can get away with a 40 point 2C because of the productivity of Necas and Svech. If Necas or Svech struggles, as all players go through slumps, then having a 40 point 2C may not be something we can get away with.

It's not just about each players individual production. The whole point of having depth is that when one player struggles, another one is there to puck up the slack.

Yup. This. Thank you.

 

[bleedgreen]

worth noting that Koko started out last year so incredibly poorly with like 1 point in his first 15 or something (someone confirm how bad my memory is). The last 1/2 to 2/3 of the season though he was a clear stud 2C and scoring at like a 60+ point pace. Also I thought there was a pretty noticeable improvement in his skating and confidence later in the year which seems to have translated to this year as well.

Will have to let it play out but I think JK at 2C is among the least of our concerns. I like the Vegas center group comparison, and also there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Our D group is so insanely stacked and our wingers and forward group as a whole are very deep, both of those better than many Cup winners who had the more traditional skilled play-driving top 6 center group.

And I’m fine with giving him space to start this season and see which version of the guy we really have. I can believe he’s good enough and growing into the role, but we’re in our window and we really need someone in the spot who picks up the slack when the other two are off. Or just makes the other two better. That’s why I say I think it’s pretty 50/50 with him. If we didn’t have Staal he’d be an awesome 3C and I wouldn’t have a single nit to pick with his acquisition and play to date.