Prospect Info: Jesperi Kotkaniemi

[moses malone 12]

A fair take. My point isn't that he's good. My point is that they think he will play the hell out of the Rod style. I think he will. That may or may not actually result in success.

young cost-controlled center who was a top three pick. Lacks consistency but seems to buy into Rod's system and appears to be a good teammate. I expect he will earn more minutes next year.

 

[MinJaBen]

young cost-controlled center who was a top three pick. Lacks consistency but seems to buy into Rod's system and appears to be a good teammate. I expect he will earn more minutes next year.

Maybe. But each year we had Fleury I thought the same, then the front office went out and got another vet that kept him buried. We’ll see if he’s given the opportunity, or if someone else is brought in over the summer.

 

[CandyCanes]

Maybe. But each year we had Fleury I thought the same, then the front office went out and got another vet that kept him buried. We’ll see if he’s given the opportunity, or if someone else is brought in over the summer.

I hope he’s given the opportunity. Cause we’re committed to the guy for 8 years. Fleury never had longer than a 2 year contract.

 

[WreckingCrew]

Maybe. But each year we had Fleury I thought the same, then the front office went out and got another vet that kept him buried. We’ll see if he’s given the opportunity, or if someone else is brought in over the summer.

In all fairness, Fleury also never really brought much to the table, he rarely stood out in any way. KK at least has shown many flashes of what he's capable of doing despite having 4th line wingers to play with

 

[MinJaBen]

In all fairness, Fleury also never really brought much to the table, he rarely stood out in any way. KK at least has shown many flashes of what he's capable of doing despite having 4th line wingers to play with

Sure, the comparison isn't perfect in that sense. But what we have already seen is both Rod and Don say they'd like him back (I know, doesn't mean much in terms of the effort to actually sign him), and with at least Rod, may mean he doesn't see enough in JK to feel he will be able to assume the role.

 

[bleedgreen]

Maybe. But each year we had Fleury I thought the same, then the front office went out and got another vet that kept him buried. We’ll see if he’s given the opportunity, or if someone else is brought in over the summer.

I’ve been wondering the same thing myself. On one hand they signed him for 8 years so you’d think he’s got a spot next year, on the other hand you’d have to be barking mad to give the second line to him based on what he’s done so far. I could easily see them getting another center who could handle the second line.

Just don’t let the number two be Staal…

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Staal already was the number 2 center. He played as much 5 v 5 time as Aho. Giving Kotkaniemi an extra 90 seconds a game in 5v5 play isn’t a big ask.

The question becomes who replaces Trocheck’s PK time. Im guessing Fast.

 

[Svechhammer]

It amuses me to this day that there are some people who genuinely think we gave up multiple draft picks and paid a guy $6m, and then gave him a 8 year extension out of spite.

 

[Chrispy]

Staal already was the number 2 center. He played as much 5 v 5 time as Aho. Giving Kotkaniemi an extra 90 seconds a game in 5v5 play isn’t a big ask.

The question becomes who replaces Trocheck’s PK time. Im guessing Fast.

Aho, Staal taking draws. I could see Necas taking some RH draws if he can improve there. Stepan could be brought back as a 4C/PK player. Drury could make the team and get some PK time as well.

But the hole as a RH center who can PK is one reason I can see Stepan being brought back to play 4C.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Aho, Staal taking draws. I could see Necas taking some RH draws if he can improve there. Stepan could be brought back as a 4C/PK player. Drury could make the team and get some PK time as well.

But the hole as a RH center who can PK is one reason I can see Stepan being brought back to play 4C.

Acciari is my guess. Wil be cheaper that Stepan and is a better skater. Good depth scoring option too.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

It amuses me to this day that there are some people who genuinely think we gave up multiple draft picks and paid a guy $6m, and then gave him a 8 year extension out of spite.

It'll be glorious delayed gratification when JK is a core solid all around middle 6 glue C on a cheap deal (considering salary cap increases over the next 8 years).

 

[Svechhammer]

It'll be glorious delayed gratification when JK is a core solid all around middle 6 glue C on a cheap deal (considering salary cap increases over the next 8 years).

I keep saying, even if he only projects to 3C, that's still a 15% cheaper 3C than we have right now, and the salary cap is the lowest it'll be under his 8 year contract.

 

[Tryamw]

The deal may still not work out but our overall risk is low.. and far WORSE contracts have been traded..

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

To me the issue isn’t how low risk the contract is, it’s what ramifications that contract has on filling out the roster and getting the team over the hump the next two sessions. Like it or not, Aho, TT, Pesce, and Skjei are under contract for two more seasons. The teams prime window is the next two years. The way this management group has handled expiring contracts, it’s not a certainty that they’ll retain these guys.

If KK doesn’t become a much bigger contributor in the next two seasons and his contract limits us from acquiring enough talent to get to the cup, I see it as a wasted opportunity. It’s why I wasn’t a fan of the offer sheet in the first place.

If he does become a much bigger contributor in the next two seasons, then the Borg will look like a genius. Only time will tell.

 

[Lempo]

To me the issue isn’t how low risk the contract is, it’s what ramifications that contract has on filling out the roster and getting the team over the hump the next two sessions. Like it or not, Aho, TT, Pesce, and Skjei are under contract for two more seasons. The teams prime window is the next two years. The way this management group has handled expiring contracts, it’s not a certainty that they’ll retain these guys.

If KK doesn’t become a much bigger contributor in the next two seasons and his contract limits us from acquiring enough talent to get to the cup, I see it as a wasted opportunity. It’s why I wasn’t a fan of the offer sheet in the first place.

If he does become a much bigger contributor in the next two seasons, then the Borg will look like a genius. Only time will tell.

I on my behalf kind of like how it is a moderate risk/high reward move, with built-in protection (or the very least acknowledgement) for against falling into sunken cost fallacy: if it in next 2-3 years looks like it's not contributing, the contract is very buyoutable. It's almost like a feature in the setup.

It's a non-risk-averse businesslike ballsy move made on projections.

 

[spockBokk]

Projected over a full season , Kotkaniemi’s 29pts in 66gms would end up at 36pts in 82gms, matching his rookie total. I don’t think it’s too fantastical to expect him to at least reach 40pts when given better, more consistent line mates and more time playing “up” in the lineup.

Guys who consistently put up 40pts get paid $4M+. At worst, Kotkaniemi stagnates as a 40pt 3C in my view. So the worst outcome is kinda…meh. The best outcome is that he rounds into a 50pt 2C. It’s debatable if he can get there, but I don’t really have that much of a problem with the deal even if he only hits as a 3C.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

Projected over a full season , Kotkaniemi’s 29pts in 66gms would end up at 36pts in 82gms, matching his rookie total. I don’t think it’s too fantastical to expect him to at least reach 40pts when given better, more consistent line mates and more time playing “up” in the lineup.

Guys who consistently put up 40pts get paid $4M+. At worst, Kotkaniemi stagnates as a 40pt 3C in my view. So the worst outcome is kinda…meh. The best outcome is that he rounds into a 50pt 2C. It’s debatable if he can get there, but I don’t really have that much of a problem with the deal even if he only hits as a 3C.

The problem is that on a winning team that 40pt 3C needs to be a shutdown matchup center

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I on my behalf kind of like how it is a moderate risk/high reward move, with built-in protection (or the very least acknowledgement) for against falling into sunken cost fallacy: if it in next 2-3 years looks like it's not contributing, the contract is very buyoutable. It's almost like a feature in the setup.

It's a non-risk-averse businesslike ballsy move made on projections.

Yes, I do understand that aspect of it. My concern wasn't the long term moderate risk/high reward aspect of it. My concern is simply the next two seasons where we still have many key players under contract and IMO, is our best window for a cup.

 

[Chrispy]

Yes, I do understand that aspect of it. My concern wasn't the long term moderate risk/high reward aspect of it. My concern is simply the next two seasons where we still have many key players under contract and IMO, is our best window for a cup.

As much as we think that, maximizing the short term window does not appear to be the Borg's priority. Extending the window does, and this gamble definitely does that if successful.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

As much as we think that, maximizing the short term window does not appear to be the Borg's priority. Extending the window does, and this gamble definitely does that if successful.

Yep, I get that and understand why the Borg made the move, and as I said, if it works out, they'll look like a genius. I'm just stating MY concerns about the move and stating how I feel about the window the next few years. I don't think the window will close by any means, just that some of these players are not going to be easy to replace.

It's not a big deal to me, just stating why I wasn't a big fan of the offersheet in the first place. I've not agreed with everything the Borg has done, but have agreed with most of it but have been of the mindset, that as long as they keep winning, I won't be too upset with any given move, and thus I don't feel very strongly about this one either.

 

[Chrispy]

Given the way Florida and Tampa went all in this year, I think holding off this year worked out in their favor. Mostly luck, but it still worked in their favor.

Tampa has no 1sts, one 2nd and 2 3rds in 2023 and 2024 combined. Florida has no 1sts, one 2nd and one 3rd in 23 and 24 combined.

The Rangers are currently in better shape for picks, but players should be less competitive to acquire this offseason and next year.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Given the way Florida and Tampa went all in this year, I think holding off this year worked out in their favor. Mostly luck, but it still worked in their favor.

Tampa has no 1sts, one 2nd and 2 3rds in 2023 and 2024 combined. Florida has no 1sts, one 2nd and one 3rd in 23 and 24 combined.

The Rangers are currently in better shape for picks, but players should be less competitive to acquire this offseason and next year.

Not sure if this was in reference to my comment, but if so, I wasn't saying "go all in" though. My comment was specifically in this past season and the next two, could the money the team spent on Kotkaniemi have been put to better use to help put the team over the top. Sure, there are always guys teams spend on that don't pan out, but this being an offer sheet is a more unique situation.

Again, not a big deal though, just my views on it.

 

[Chrispy]

They did make attempts at other players in the offseason who would have been more immediate improvements (Saad, Tarasenko for example) and nothing panned out. That was why Dundon described it as a $6M hole in the cap they wouldn’t be using at that point.

And with Gardiner on LTIR they wouldn’t be able to bank space to use later, or at least couldn’t bank on more than $2M of that $6M if Gardiner was not on LTIR. A very unusual circumstance to be that late in the offseason with that much cap, likely losing about $4M of it, and having an unsigned RFA available.

 

[Lempo]

They did make attempts at other players in the offseason who would have been more immediate improvements (Saad, Tarasenko for example) and nothing panned out. That was why Dundon described it as a $6M hole in the cap they wouldn’t be using at that point.

And with Gardiner on LTIR they wouldn’t be able to bank space to use later, or at least couldn’t bank on more than $2M of that $6M if Gardiner was not on LTIR. A very unusual circumstance to be that late in the offseason with that much cap, likely losing about $4M of it, and having an unsigned RFA available.

Signed August 28 with the Free Agency having started a month earlier... the market was probably pretty drained of unrestricted free agents at that point.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Given the way Florida and Tampa went all in this year, I think holding off this year worked out in their favor. Mostly luck, but it still worked in their favor.

Tampa has no 1sts, one 2nd and 2 3rds in 2023 and 2024 combined. Florida has no 1sts, one 2nd and one 3rd in 23 and 24 combined.

The Rangers are currently in better shape for picks, but players should be less competitive to acquire this offseason and next year.

Tampa and Florida’s lack of picks won’t hurt them in the next three years. Then we have contracts up for renewal that if not renewed would cause us to decline.

I believe the Borg needed to be more aggressive at the deadline/this year since the opportunity to win was there.