Speculation: Jesperi Kotkaniemi - What is he worth this summer?

[Kudo Shinichi]

KK gets a 2 year bridge deal x 2.3 M
Suzuki gets a 8 year contract extension x 7 M (similar contract to hischier)

 

[Captain97]

2 @ ~2.5 is what it likely will be

 

[le_sean]

Bridge. You need to know if he’s actually anything more than a future Lars Eller before committing long term.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Bridge. You need to know if he’s actually anything more than a future Lars Eller before committing long term.

Even if he's an Eller (#3C), if you sign him at 4m/6 years, it's fine. It's a good gamble to take, we can endup with a #2C/#1C at bargain price.

 

[le_sean]

Even if he's an Eller (#3C), if you sign him at 4m/6 years, it's fine. It's a good gamble to take, we can endup with a #2C/#1C at bargain price.

I don’t agree since Evans and Poehling could just do the same thing for a fraction of the price if all he’s going to amount to is a 35-40 point player.

 

[Habs Halifax]

1 or 2 year bridge. Something around $3M I'm thinking.

Lehkonen got 2 years at $2.4M

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

I don’t agree since Evans and Poehling could just do the same thing for a fraction of the price if all he’s going to amount to is a 35-40 point player.

But that's worst case scenario, he will most likely be a #2C, but even in that scenario, a relatively young #3C is tradable at that price.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

I actually wouldn't mind a long term contract. Something like $4.5m. It's ridiculously easy to buy out a contract for someone under 25.

6 years, $27m.

1. $2.5m (comparable to Lehkonen/Armia)
2. $3.3m (comparable to Byron, Laughton)
3. $4.1m (comparable to Anisimov, Rask)
4. $4.9m (comparable to PLD, Cirelli)
5. $5.7m (UFA year)
6. $6.5m (UFA year)

If after year 3 or 4, it doesn't look good, you can buy out the last 2 or 3 years at 1/3 of the cost because he'll be under 25.

On the other hand, we could great value for a young player if he blossoms into something. Something that we had with Price, Pacioretty & Gallagher, but we couldn't do anything with those great contracts.

If we sign KK short term, we could end up at a much higher cap rate for him.

It also means we'd have no issues signing Suzuki at $5.5m or higher if needed in 2022.

There's also Caufield to worry about the year after that. And something tells me he's getting $5m - ish too when his ELC is done.

2021 KK: $4.5m
2022 Suzuki: $5.5m
2023 Caufield: $5m

Basically, you give Tatar's cap to KK.

Historically, it's always been the better move to sign young players to long term contracts so you can manage your cap better on an annual basis.

 

[Canadienna]

Long term deals for JK and Suzuki would help plan for the post Weber/Price era.

Problem is I think a lot of RFAs are going to avoid long term deals hoping the cap goes back up by the time their next contract is due.

Still if possible I'd go long.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

I don’t agree since Evans and Poehling could just do the same thing for a fraction of the price if all he’s going to amount to is a 35-40 point player.

Centers, especially young ones, are tradeable assets. It's low risk to give KK a long term contract at $4m or $4.5m. Teams will like what he brings, size down the middle, competitiveness and physicality. Already has playoff experience.

On top of that, buyouts for players under 25 is 1/3 of the cost.

There's minimal risk here.

There's a much higher risk financially to do a bridge.

 

[Rockomax]

3x3. If you go long term 7x6

6M per season?

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

2 years 2.4m-2.75m

at best

He has no leverage.

 

[yianik]

I think there is a good chance that after next year we will have a good idea of what Suzuki is and committing long term to him. As in 6-8 years. KK , no, bridge deal of 2 years makes sense.

 

[malton]

6M per season?

If you're going long term you're taking the risk that the value is there.

I assume they'll bridge.

 

[Rockomax]

If you're going long term you're taking the risk that the value is there.

I assume they'll bridge.

If you're going long term, you're taking a risk, which should mitigate the cap hit. A bit like they did with Pacioretty and his 4.5 M AAV contract (and he was more proven). Risk goes both ways; the player committing to a lengthy contract acquires security as well and this has value.

I don't see anyone investing 42M in KK just yet.

 

[malton]

If you're going long term, you're taking a risk, which should mitigate the cap hit. A bit like they did with Pacioretty and his 4.5 M AAV contract (and he was more proven). Risk goes both ways; the player committing to a lengthy contract acquires security as well and this has value.

I don't see anyone investing 42M in KK just yet.

4.5 at that cap and 6m at this aren't really different. 7% vs 7.4% of the cap.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

4.5 at that cap and 6m at this aren't really different. 7% vs 7.4% of the cap.

6M is crazy.

 

[M.C.G. 31]

2 years, less than 3m per. Still need to keep him under RFA status for the next contract, but also need to see what he becomes. The next two years will be pretty crucial for his development with filling out and asserting himself more consistently.

 

[The Great Weal]

I actually wouldn't mind a long term contract. Something like $4.5m. It's ridiculously easy to buy out a contract for someone under 25.

6 years, $27m.

1. $2.5m (comparable to Lehkonen/Armia)
2. $3.3m (comparable to Byron, Laughton)
3. $4.1m (comparable to Anisimov, Rask)
4. $4.9m (comparable to PLD, Cirelli)
5. $5.7m (UFA year)
6. $6.5m (UFA year)

If after year 3 or 4, it doesn't look good, you can buy out the last 2 or 3 years at 1/3 of the cost because he'll be under 25.

On the other hand, we could great value for a young player if he blossoms into something. Something that we had with Price, Pacioretty & Gallagher, but we couldn't do anything with those great contracts.

If we sign KK short term, we could end up at a much higher cap rate for him.

It also means we'd have no issues signing Suzuki at $5.5m or higher if needed in 2022.

There's also Caufield to worry about the year after that. And something tells me he's getting $5m - ish too when his ELC is done.

2021 KK: $4.5m
2022 Suzuki: $5.5m
2023 Caufield: $5m

Basically, you give Tatar's cap to KK.

Historically, it's always been the better move to sign young players to long term contracts so you can manage your cap better on an annual basis.

I don't see why KK would accept 4.5x6. You'd have to think that he'll want 6x6 if we are doing something that long.

 

[aresknights]

KK gets a 2 year bridge deal x 2.3 M
Suzuki gets a 8 year contract extension x 7 M (similar contract to hischier)

That seems like a sure fire way to upset the apple cart.

 

[malton]

6M is crazy.

He's not signing long term for less than that. Which is why I assume he's signing a bridge.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

He's not signing long term for less than that. Which is why I assume he's signing a bridge.

If so, bridge his ass, he may never worth 6M.

 

[le_sean]

Centers, especially young ones, are tradeable assets. It's low risk to give KK a long term contract at $4m or $4.5m. Teams will like what he brings, size down the middle, competitiveness and physicality. Already has playoff experience.

On top of that, buyouts for players under 25 is 1/3 of the cost.

There's minimal risk here.

There's a much higher risk financially to do a bridge.

We have other areas that are pressing now and don’t have a lot of cap flexibility. The saved $2m could go a long way. There were moments this season where we couldn’t call up players because of the cap. You can’t just throw money around.

Suzuki is the one you sign long-term hoping he keeps trending upwards. KK has more to prove. If you give KK $4m+ then Suzuki has every right to ask for $7m

 

[Rockomax]

4.5 at that cap and 6m at this aren't really different. 7% vs 7.4% of the cap.

Point being that Pacioretty was considerably at the time

 

[MarkovsKnee]

We have other areas that are pressing now and don’t have a lot of cap flexibility. The saved $2m could go a long way. There were moments this season where we couldn’t call up players because of the cap. You can’t just throw money around.

Suzuki is the one you sign long-term hoping he keeps trending upwards. KK has more to prove. If you give KK $4m+ then Suzuki has every right to ask for $7m

That's because MB f***ed up the cap/roster situation at the deadline.

Right now we have $12.1m in cap space. The summer we have to sign Suzuki, we'll have almost $23m. Really don't see an issue with our cap. Suzuki might earn himself a $7m contract regardless of what KK does.

Already signed for next year:

Toffoli -- Suzuki -- Caufield
Drouin -- xxxxx -- Anderson
Lehkonen -- Evans --- Gallagher
Byron -- xxxx -- xxxx

Edmundson -- Petry
Chiarot -- Weber
Kulak -- Romanov

Price
Allen

We lose Chiarot in expansion draft so that gives us another $3.5m for $15.6m.

KK signs for $4.5m. Poehling signs one way at $800k, Perry at $850k. Armia $3m. That's $9.15m and gives us 13 forwards.

Fleury signs for $750k (minimum) and we sign another depth defenseman for $750k.

That leaves us $4.85m. We need bonus cushion for rookie contracts, so we probably have about $2.85m for a #4 D to replace Chiarot. If we only go with 7D then $3.6m is left to replace Chiarot.

It's tight, but doable. We definitely need Drouin to come back or trade him. We have no LW depth.

But, it's better for us to sign KK long term. He's UFA in 4 years, so if we don't want to pay the last 2 years of his 6 year contract we can buy him out cheap, or trade him, as there are always teams looking for centers.