Confirmed with Link: Jensen + 5th to WAS for Madison Bowey + 2020 2nd

[rbartnik]

It is more to do with the extended history of our NA scouts. Outside of Stevie, who was the last NA guy that killed it? How many NA guys have came in and exceeded at their role? Been quite awhile since you could say something better than the norm which is basically finding Brendan Smith's more or less.

Bunch of Brendan Smiths right there, eh?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Bunch of Brendan Smiths right there, eh?

Bertuzzi exceeded expectations of being a good 3rd liner.
Larkin previously met expectations of being a top 6 center. He's performing far below these expectations this season and last.
Mantha is well underperforming expectations.

 

[Tetsuo]

It is more to do with the extended history of our NA scouts. Outside of Stevie, who was the last NA guy that killed it? How many NA guys have came in and exceeded at their role? Been quite awhile since you could say something better than the norm which is basically finding Brendan Smith's more or less.

This is such a weird argument to me. There have been plenty of really good NA guys that we've drafted since Yzerman. None have been stars to that level but Stevie was a borderline generational talent, and is one of the three best leaders in the history of the sport. Those types of players do not grow on trees. You can fault the team for not drafting well at all after the lockout (Hronek was the first top 4 D we drafted in almost a generation, Larkin is the only top 6 we've drafted since Filppula, etc) but people getting bent out of shape over failing to find the next Yzerman is silly.

 

[Tetsuo]

Bertuzzi exceeded expectations of being a good 3rd liner.
Larkin previously met expectations of being a top 6 center. He's performing far below these expectations this season and last.
Mantha is well underperforming expectations.

Don't you think you're kinda being a prisoner of the moment, eh? All three have exceeded their value relative to their draft position and all three aren't franchise level players. This is not a zero sum game, where the only players that exceed their draft stock are franchise level players. People seem to forget that we haven't found any franchise-level Europeans since Franzen when they make this "our NA drafting is bad" argument. In truth, our drafting has been pretty underwhelming since the lockout.

 

[odin1981]

This is such a weird argument to me. There have been plenty of really good NA guys that we've drafted since Yzerman. None have been stars to that level but Stevie was a borderline generational talent, and is one of the three best leaders in the history of the sport. Those types of players do not grow on trees. You can fault the team for not drafting well at all after the lockout (Hronek was the first top 4 D we drafted in almost a generation, Larkin is the only top 6 we've drafted since Filppula, etc) but people getting bent out of shape over failing to find the next Yzerman is silly.

I'm not saying the level of Stevie, I'm saying who name one NA skater that has exceeded what their expectations was. Bertuzzi? That's it. But at the best situation he is a 2nd line guy in a contender line up. Mantha hasn't lived up to expectations, Larkin performed to his. Glendy bottom 6 guy hard to miss on those. Helm, Abby when not slobbered on by Babs and put over their heads bottom 6 guys. Draper was a trade. It's been awhile on the NA end that's all I'm saying.

On the euro side compare for instance to only Stevie on the NA side: Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Z, Konstantinov, Federov, a definate gap......., Franzen, Kronwall, Samuellsson, Holmstrom. Notice the difference in quantity?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Don't you think you're kinda being a prisoner of the moment, eh? All three have exceeded their value relative to their draft position and all three aren't franchise level players. This is not a zero sum game, where the only players that exceed their draft stock are franchise level players. People seem to forget that we haven't found any franchise-level Europeans since Franzen when they make this "our NA drafting is bad" argument. In truth, our drafting has been pretty underwhelming since the lockout.

I don't think it's being so much a prisoner of the moment but a realization that our star players are not as good as we had hoped they would be. If they were better, we would be a better team. Our bottom 6 have basically performed to expectations this season, but our top 6 has not.

 

[rbartnik]

I'm not saying the level of Stevie, I'm saying who name one NA skater that has exceeded what their expectations was. Bertuzzi? That's it. But at the best situation he is a 2nd line guy in a contender line up. Mantha hasn't lived up to expectations, Larkin performed to his. Glendy bottom 6 guy hard to miss on those. Helm, Abby when not slobbered on by Babs and put over their heads bottom 6 guys. Draper was a trade. It's been awhile on the NA end that's all I'm saying.

On the euro side compare for instance to only Stevie on the NA side: Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Z, Konstantinov, Federov, a definate gap......., Franzen, Kronwall, Samuellsson, Holmstrom. Notice the difference in quantity?

There are 3 or 4 guys per draft that fit your criteria. Scouting in general has gotten better league-wide since 2000.

Larkin's fifth in scoring in his draft class. Mantha is 13th. What on earth are your expectations?

 

[Run the Jewels]

Larkin's fifth in scoring in his draft class. Mantha is 13th. What on earth are your expectations?

To find more than 2 guys in 30 years? Is that too big of an ask? The last guy we drafted out of North America who put up 600+ points was Keith Primeau in 1990. That sucks.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

There are 3 or 4 guys per draft that fit your criteria. Scouting in general has gotten better league-wide since 2000.

Larkin's fifth in scoring in his draft class. Mantha is 13th. What on earth are your expectations?

The Wings need to be better though. Is it hard? Absolutely.

The next 2-3 drafts will determine if the Wings rebuild finishes by 2025 or 2030.

 

[rbartnik]

To find more than 2 guys in 30 years? Is that too big of an ask? The last guy we drafted out of North America who put up 600+ points was Keith Primeau in 1990. That sucks.

Again.. there are 2 or 3 of these per draft (closer to 4-5 around in the early 90s), and we were not in a position to draft most of them.

 

[lomekian]

I'm not saying the level of Stevie, I'm saying who name one NA skater that has exceeded what their expectations was. Bertuzzi? That's it. But at the best situation he is a 2nd line guy in a contender line up. Mantha hasn't lived up to expectations, Larkin performed to his. Glendy bottom 6 guy hard to miss on those. Helm, Abby when not slobbered on by Babs and put over their heads bottom 6 guys. Draper was a trade. It's been awhile on the NA end that's all I'm saying.

On the euro side compare for instance to only Stevie on the NA side: Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Z, Konstantinov, Federov, a definate gap......., Franzen, Kronwall, Samuellsson, Holmstrom. Notice the difference in quantity?

Talk about selective veiwing.

Bertuzzi has already smashed expectations
Mantha has over-achieved compared to his draft position as has Larkin
Glendenning was a walk on - him having a job is a massive overachievement.
Helm was a huge overachievemnet
AA was a huge overachievemnet
Jensen was a big overachievement.
Jimmy Howard was an overachivement.
Mrazek (at that stage NA) was an overachivement

None are elite players, but are still overachievements
as for the Euros - Lids, Dats, Z, Konstantinov, Federov, Homer - all along time ago now, and representative of a time when the wings had a MASSIVE competitive advantage. None of those players fall to the Wings in a North American context or even in more recent draft years.
Franzen was a big win. Kronwall likewise, and both when Sweden was starting to get real attention.
Samuelsson already had 3 NHL season under his belt before he joined the Wings, so not really down to Euro scouting.

For all the whinging on here, the wings haven't got elite players because they've only started getting the high picks that the bread and butter of the NHL in recent years. We've probably marginally underachieved in the 2nd & 3rd rounds in the last 20 years, and haven't pulled a Josi or Kucherov out of those rounds, but we have done better than most in rounds 4-7.

2017 looks like a damp squib, but its only really Zablocki and maybe Kotkinsalo who you can say are BAD picks. Rasmussen has much to prove, but so have a number of others picked near him.

2015 looks to be weak too, but that's mostly on Svech's injury, as the other picks were late 3rd or lower.

Jury is out on 2016 to 2020, but there is lots of promise there, and some possible elite or close to it talent on the way, from both NA & Europe.

 

[lomekian]

I don't think it's being so much a prisoner of the moment but a realization that our star players are not as good as we had hoped they would be. If they were better, we would be a better team. Our bottom 6 have basically performed to expectations this season, but our top 6 has not.

Indeed - but 1/3 of a season doesn't reflect a career....after all after this many games last season the MLB line was one of the top 15 in the NHL by most metrics....

 

[lomekian]

To find more than 2 guys in 30 years? Is that too big of an ask? The last guy we drafted out of North America who put up 600+ points was Keith Primeau in 1990. That sucks.

Given that Mantha was the wings 4th forward from NA (or anywhere) picked in the first round since Primeau, and 2nd since 1992, is it really that surprising? Lapointe had a good career before injuries hit. Sheahan was about par for his draft position (or slightly above). And I'm not going to lose sleep about Curtis Bowen 29 years ago.

Also our 2nd round NA forward picks in that time have been Darren Mccarty, Audet in '95, Barnes in '98, Abby in '05, Corey Emmerton and Shawn Matthias in 06, Landon Ferraro in '09, Jurco in 2011, Frk in 2012, and Nstasiak in 2013 & Smith in 2016, (and Mastirsomone in 2019, but I'm not sure we can conclude a lot there), its not as if we;ve been wasting year after year of picks on NA players with nothing. Its also true that for all the brilliance of a handful of 90s draft picks, most of our drafts in the 90s were far more wasteful than those in the last decade.

 

[lomekian]

The Wings need to be better though. Is it hard? Absolutely.

The next 2-3 drafts will determine if the Wings rebuild finishes by 2025 or 2030.

For sure. And though its horrible to say, a large part of that is the lottery balls. Power, Wright & Bedard and then we are almost ready to compete.

Had the balls rolled more kindly the 4 years we've been a lottery team, and from what we know about who the wings were targetting, we could have had Elias Pettersson, A Svechnikov, Byram & Stuzle....and that's without winning the lottery.

The good thing is, we will be in lottery contention the next couple of years, so there's still a good chance of picking up a couple of cornerstone pieces. The work done so far means our current prospects and younger roster players should have the rest of the roster sorted, but we need a couple of bona fide stars

 

[odin1981]

There are 3 or 4 guys per draft that fit your criteria. Scouting in general has gotten better league-wide since 2000.

Larkin's fifth in scoring in his draft class. Mantha is 13th. What on earth are your expectations?

To have people that exceed expectations, because for the rebound to turnaround you need 2-3 cornerstone guys, and players quite a few that exceed expectations. Right now only Bert has exceeded his, Larkin has performed to his expectations. Mantha I can't wait for him to be gone because outside of his contract year he hasn't performed to any level that has made anyone happy, he always leaves you wanting more. I just hope someone is dumb enough to give us a defensive or center prospect with top 4 or 6 upside and a pick and I would already trade him but this year his value isn't high so I'm not expecting a move this year.

So in like 30 years you have 2 people who exceed expectations? Stevie and Bertuzzi. And people wonder why we are where we are? This isn't something unrealistic like hitting on 50% of our picks. It's just asking more than twice in a generation we have over performer's in respect to what they were seen as. Like I said I'm not expecting generational performance like Stevie did, I'm just asking for exceeding expectations. We need probably like 5 more over performers to improve out of this.

 

[rbartnik]

So in like 30 years you have 2 people who exceed expectations? Stevie and Bertuzzi. And people wonder why we are where we are? This isn't something unrealistic like hitting on 50% of our picks. It's just asking more than twice in a generation we have over performer's in respect to what they were seen as. Like I said I'm not expecting generational performance like Stevie did, I'm just asking for exceeding expectations. We need probably like 5 more over performers to improve out of this.

No, Detroit has had a bunch, but you discount them because they're European.

EDIT: And, in case you've forgotten, we were really, really good for 25 of those years and had to do so with late picks.

 

[lomekian]

To have people that exceed expectations, because for the rebound to turnaround you need 2-3 cornerstone guys, and players quite a few that exceed expectations. Right now only Bert has exceeded his, Larkin has performed to his expectations. Mantha I can't wait for him to be gone because outside of his contract year he hasn't performed to any level that has made anyone happy, he always leaves you wanting more. I just hope someone is dumb enough to give us a defensive or center prospect with top 4 or 6 upside and a pick and I would already trade him but this year his value isn't high so I'm not expecting a move this year.

So in like 30 years you have 2 people who exceed expectations? Stevie and Bertuzzi. And people wonder why we are where we are? This isn't something unrealistic like hitting on 50% of our picks. It's just asking more than twice in a generation we have over performer's in respect to what they were seen as. Like I said I'm not expecting generational performance like Stevie did, I'm just asking for exceeding expectations. We need probably like 5 more over performers to improve out of this.

Nice totally ignoring my post that gives loads of examples of overperforming vs draft position. The problem you have here is you are using subjective expectations of individual rather than vs draft position

 

[odin1981]

Talk about selective veiwing.

Bertuzzi has already smashed expectations
Mantha has over-achieved compared to his draft position as has Larkin
Glendenning was a walk on - him having a job is a massive overachievement.
Helm was a huge overachievemnet
AA was a huge overachievemnet
Jensen was a big overachievement.
Jimmy Howard was an overachivement.
Mrazek (at that stage NA) was an overachivement

None are elite players, but are still overachievements
as for the Euros - Lids, Dats, Z, Konstantinov, Federov, Homer - all along time ago now, and representative of a time when the wings had a MASSIVE competitive advantage. None of those players fall to the Wings in a North American context or even in more recent draft years.
Franzen was a big win. Kronwall likewise, and both when Sweden was starting to get real attention.
Samuelsson already had 3 NHL season under his belt before he joined the Wings, so not really down to Euro scouting.

For all the whinging on here, the wings haven't got elite players because they've only started getting the high picks that the bread and butter of the NHL in recent years. We've probably marginally underachieved in the 2nd & 3rd rounds in the last 20 years, and haven't pulled a Josi or Kucherov out of those rounds, but we have done better than most in rounds 4-7.

2017 looks like a damp squib, but its only really Zablocki and maybe Kotkinsalo who you can say are BAD picks. Rasmussen has much to prove, but so have a number of others picked near him.

2015 looks to be weak too, but that's mostly on Svech's injury, as the other picks were late 3rd or lower.

Jury is out on 2016 to 2020, but there is lots of promise there, and some possible elite or close to it talent on the way, from both NA & Europe.

Glendy not drafted and bottom 6, Helm bottom 6, AA is no longer on the team traded for picks, Jensen 3rd pairing d, at best Jimmy Howard a average #1g, Mrazek European and average 1g.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Glendy not drafted and bottom 6, Helm bottom 6, AA is no longer on the team traded for picks, Jensen 3rd pairing d, at best Jimmy Howard a average #1g, Mrazek European and average 1g.

Used a #110 overall draft pick, traded it for 2 2nd round picks. How is that not the definition of "huge overachievement"?

 

[lomekian]

Glendy not drafted and bottom 6, Helm bottom 6, AA is no longer on the team traded for picks, Jensen 3rd pairing d, at best Jimmy Howard a average #1g, Mrazek European and average 1g.

That's a different argument though. You said "name one NA skater that has exceeded what their expectations was. Bertuzzi? That's it." - I named you 8, and missed others.

If the argument is about the wings not drafting Elite level N/A based talent, that's a different argument - and one I've answered above - hard to get elite N/A talent when you have later picks than most other teams for 28 years, trade 1/4 of your top picks away, and draft quite a few non NA players with your early picks.

Sure we've missed a few gems and made a few bad picks, but ultimately the Wings fell behind drafting until the full rebuild started because had less picks, and considerably less high picks than almost every other team.

Frankly I'm a lot more concerned about our talent development than our drafting