Gotta disagree with you on the trade. Fleury's list will be full of contenders. Contenders don't wanna take on a massive contract like that to get a fragile goalie. So even if Fleury's NMC is modified I don't see why any team would want to take on Fleury with his contract...let alone one on his shortlist...if it even exists. There are so many goalies available. Calgary almost got Bishop before the draft.
If the Pens would be willing to retain salary or take another expensive goalie in return that might be a game changer...not sure the Pens would want to do that.
Paying Vegas not to take Murray is probably gonna cost too much for the Pens to be interested. However paying Vegas to take Halak should be a realistic scenario. Vegas won't be overly worried about the salary cap. Depending on who else is available, a 1st rounder may seal the deal. They're gonna get a lot of average players so high picks is definitely something they'll be looking for to get some real franchise players.
So your 2nd scenario would probably be the most likely one to happen. If Fleury doesn't waive his NMC (I don't see why he would other than out of loyalty), he's probably gonna get a massive paycheck.
Fleury's preference may be contenders, however, sometimes a guy just wants to play A LOT and that may be his goal. Doesn't look like Ryan Miller went after a contender w/Vancouver. He went for western location AND playing time.
PIT doesn't have to give up assets for someone to take Fleury. There's plenty of teams that will take him on as starter. His contract is digestible. You take Fleury @ 2yrs, Halak @ 1yr, or Bishop the UFA @ 4/5yrs, Mason the UFA @ 2/3 yrs, Elliot the UFA @ 2/3 yrs? Those are the comparables - Fleury is very attractive in that scenario to the existing teams, let alone adding in Vegas.
How many teams have been 'paid' to take players? Not many, so it's nice how fans think this, yet it has not been put into practice often. (and yes, I am familiar with the Kessel trade).