Signing(s): Jays sign J.A. Happ - 3 years/36 M

[robert terwilliger]

if the jays, or anyone, scores 1,000 runs in the 2016 season i will send you ten american dollars.

the indians scored 1,009 runs in 99 with peak manny, thome and alomar in the middle of an offensive era. to put that in perspective, in 1999, the league average in runs scored was 838. that would have been second in mlb in 2015.

 

[le_sean]

if the jays, or anyone, scores 1,000 runs in the 2016 season i will send you ten american dollars.

the indians scored 1,009 runs in 99 with peak manny, thome and alomar in the middle of an offensive era. to put that in perspective, in 1999, the league average in runs scored was 838. that would have been second in mlb in 2015.

No, they probably won't do it, but the potential to improve on 891 runs is there. I would say any team that averages 5.5+ runs a game is a strong contender.

 

[darko]

Jays can score all the runs they want they'll still have odds stacked against them. Come October ball will beat the bat more often than not. I mean just look at the Royals series.

 

[darko]

No, they probably won't do it, but the potential to improve on 891 runs is there. I would say any team that averages 5.5+ runs a game is a strong contender.

There is a potential to be better but they could also regress. Bautista is 35. Can Travis stay healthy? Can Tulo stay healthy?

 

[robert terwilliger]

they're not going to be the same team that scored all those runs though. they're going to be a year older.

it doesn't always work out where a team that plays well just picks up where it left off the year before.

 

[Discoverer]

Jays can score all the runs they want they'll still have odds stacked against them. Come October ball will beat the bat more often than not. I mean just look at the Royals series.

This is a perfect example of why the Jays can compete with their current rotation. It stacks up well against the Royals' rotation from 2015 (seriously... that rotation was decent, but far from anything special) and they're a vastly superior offensive team.

 

[theaub]

they're not going to be the same team that scored all those runs though. they're going to be a year older.

it doesn't always work out where a team that plays well just picks up where it left off the year before.

It is weird to see people who watched the Jays get absolutely devastated by injuries for every year since like 2011 think that a season where Donaldson/Bautista/Edwin all played 145+ games and all had over 600 PA is sustainable.

On the plus side, even if they score a full run per game less than last year they're still like the...5th best offense in the league? There's a lot of regression room to play with.

 

[le_sean]

they're not going to be the same team that scored all those runs though. they're going to be a year older.

it doesn't always work out where a team that plays well just picks up where it left off the year before.

To be fair, this wasn't a case of the Jays just being the #1 offensive team last year, they completely trounced other teams in offence.

 

[le_sean]

It is weird to see people who watched the Jays get absolutely devastated by injuries for every year since like 2011 think that a season where Donaldson/Bautista/Edwin all played 145+ games and all had over 600 PA is sustainable.

On the plus side, even if they score a full run per game less than last year they're still like the...5th best offense in the league? There's a lot of regression room to play with.

Maybe it's not sustainable to be that healthy, but I would think Pillar is only going to get better with the bat and Goins is not even comparable to Travis offensively. There are ways to make up for potential injuries.

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

Guessing these quotes won't go over well with some Jays fans:

http://nypost.com/2015/11/30/blue-jays-soft-spot-could-go-bust-or-send-yankees-to-oblivion/

“With our offense, we feel consistent starting pitching was going to be key,†Blue Jays interim general manager Tony LaCava said by phone.

“We felt that if we did not act quickly, we could end up with a lot of guys who were not even replacement-level starters and, for us, that would have been a catastrophe,†LaCava said.

“These were not the sexiest moves of the offseason,†LaCava said. “We are not going to win the offseason, but that was not the focus. The focus was on adding capable starters with potential upside.â€

 

[td_ice]

Guessing these quotes won't go over well with some Jays fans:

http://nypost.com/2015/11/30/blue-jays-soft-spot-could-go-bust-or-send-yankees-to-oblivion/

"when the music stops we didn't want to be left without a chair.....it may not be a great chair, but hey, at least we got a seat."

 

[theaub]

I mean that's a 100% logical statement.

For all the times this team has thrown out crap starter after crap starter in the bottom half of the rotation you now have Stroman/Estrada/Dickey/Happ/Hutch/Sanchez/Chavez who all could hypothetically start and not be awful.

 

[le_sean]

It'll be fine if they add good bullpen arms. These guys cannot be expected to consistently go 7+ and you don't want to burn out Cecil/Sanchez/Osuna.

 

[Eyedea]

They piled runs on all year yet they were a .500 team until the deadline.

Even if the amount of runs they scored happens to be unsustainable, their 15-28 record in 1 run games has to prove that they were rather unlucky in several cases as well.

Jays can score all the runs they want they'll still have odds stacked against them. Come October ball will beat the bat more often than not. I mean just look at the Royals series.

But the Royals series also proves the factor of complete randomness. Kansas City is a rare team in today's league that manages to put a substantial amount of balls into play. Can we really expect them to bat some absurd .500 or whatever average with runners on base and scoring position again? Possibly, but it shows the variance of effectiveness in postseason play. I mean just the series prior they were winning because of their ability to hit the long ball and were striking out way more frequently than when they played the Jays and Mets.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

they're not going to be the same team that scored all those runs though. they're going to be a year older.

it doesn't always work out where a team that plays well just picks up where it left off the year before.

Absolutely. I think the real reason AA bailed on the team was because he knew last year was their one shot. He went all in, now they have a maxed out payroll, with no prospects, an aging core, and a substandard starting rotation.

 

[JS19]

Absolutely. I think the real reason AA bailed on the team was because he knew last year was their one shot. He went all in, now they have a maxed out payroll, with no prospects, an aging core, and a substandard starting rotation.

Doesn't make sense to just up and leave and leave behind a question mark. This is the same guy who picked up Ricciardi's hot mess.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Doesn't make sense to just up and leave and leave behind a question mark. This is the same guy who picked up Ricciardi's hot mess.

He went all in this year, and while he had some success, ultimately fell short. The team was not put into a position to contend because he emptied the cupboard of prospects and he knew ownership would never authorize him or anyone to make a serious run for a legit ace such as David Price.

That basically meant he would have two choices.

1) Start selling off pieces like Bautista/Encarnation to rebuild the prospect base and free up payroll

or

2) Do what Lacava and Shapiro are doing now which is adding depth to the pitching staff while praying that Bautista has another elite year in him at 35, Encarnation doesn't regress, and that Donaldson can replicate his career year.

Its not too hard to see why he would walk away from that.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

He went all in this year, and while he had some success, ultimately fell short. The team was not put into a position to contend because he emptied the cupboard of prospects and he knew ownership would never authorize him or anyone to make a serious run for a legit ace such as David Price.

That basically meant he would have two choices.

1) Start selling off pieces like Bautista/Encarnation to rebuild the prospect base and free up payroll

or

2) Do what Lacava and Shapiro are doing now which is adding depth to the pitching staff while praying that Bautista has another elite year in him at 35, Encarnation doesn't regress, and that Donaldson can replicate his career year.

Its not too hard to see why he would walk away from that.

Quite the narrative. He actually left because the Jays management and Rogers insulted him by not making a realistic offer early in the season when Shapiro came on...something like 2 years. Then when it became apparent that Alex's team was going to make the playoffs did the Shapiro offer him a long-term contract. Shapiro would also have been the de facto GM as well not allowing Alex the control of the team he had earned. Those are the reasons he left; an insulting initial offer and a loss of control that would have relegated him to being a GM in title only.

I'm afraid this team will be heading into the wilderness with Shapiro in charge unless he lucks out with guys like Happ and Chavez. JP era all over again...but Rogers will happy. It will give them an excuse to keep the payroll low in the future.

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Quite the narrative. He actually left because the Jays management and Rogers insulted him by not making a realistic offer early in the season when Shapiro came on...something like 2 years. Then when it became apparent that Alex's team was going to make the playoffs did the Shapiro offer him a long-term contract. Shapiro would also have been the de facto GM as well not allowing Alex the control of the team he had earned. Those are the reasons he left; an insulting initial offer and a loss of control that would have relegated him to being a GM in title only.

I'm afraid this team will be heading into the wilderness with Shapiro in charge unless he lucks out with guys like Happ and Chavez. JP era all over again...but Rogers will happy. It will give them an excuse to keep the payroll low in the future.

While he may not have received a fair offer, its painfully clear he left the team in a bad spot after going for it all. The team is aging with a maxed out payroll and nothing coming up in the pipeline. You can blame that on Shapiro all you want, but that was AA that did that.

 

[DougieSmash]

Just wait for Chen and Shark contracts. Happ gonna look like steal.

 

[TF97]

While he may not have received a fair offer, its painfully clear he left the team in a bad spot after going for it all. The team is aging with a maxed out payroll and nothing coming up in the pipeline. You can blame that on Shapiro all you want, but that was AA that did that.

Nothing in the pipeline? Take another look at the Blue Jays farm system...

 

[Fish on The Sand]

Nothing in the pipeline? Take another look at the Blue Jays farm system...

The Blue Jays traded away most of their top prospects already. They do have some young guys on the roster such as Sanchez and Osuna but they project to be bullpen guys right now. They went all in and traded their top prospects so now the cupboard is bare.

 

[Mofletz]

Happ the 12M long reliever man

 

[TF97]

The Blue Jays traded away most of their top prospects already. They do have some young guys on the roster such as Sanchez and Osuna but they project to be bullpen guys right now. They went all in and traded their top prospects so now the cupboard is bare.

The cupboards are hardly bare. As far as I'm concerned, both Sanchez and Osuna are starters until they prove that they aren't. They also have guys like Pompey, who technically graduated. Then in the minors they have Sean Reid-Foley, Max Pentecost, Anthony Alford, Connor Greene, Richard Urena, Vlad Jr, Rowdy Tellez, and Jonathan Harris. Like I said, the cupboards are far from bare. Even if they dealt guys like Norris, Hoffman, etc.

 

[darko]

I think Jays farm system is impressive considering how many they've traded away lately. Also graduations.