Signing(s): Jason Heyward signs with the Cubs (8 years/184 M)

[AtlantaWhaler]

Regardless, the point is, he's outstanding defensively along with just okay offensively. He's getting paid the way he is in large part because of his defense.

IMO, this is true.

 

[robert terwilliger]

first opt out is after 4/78 then again after 5.

this is an absolute steal for the cubs. especially as the 2019 is pa based. if he doesn't opt out after 2018, all he has to do is not get hurt and log 550 pa to be able to opt out.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

first opt out is after 4/78 then again after 5.

this is an absolute steal for the cubs. especially as the 2019 is pa based. if he doesn't opt out after 2018, all he has to do is not get hurt and log 550 pa to be able to opt out.

Of the reported $184 million that Heyward signed for, $20 million comes in the form of a signing bonus that’s considered deferred money, Heyman reported. Here’s the year-by-year breakdown of Heyward’s salary for the rest of the way, per Heyman.

2016: $15 million
2017: $21.5 million
2018: $21.5 million
2019: $20 million
2020: $21 million
2021: $21 million
2022: $22 million
2023: $22 million

With a 20 mil signing bonus isn't it really more like 4/98? But regardless I thought this was going to be ridiculously front loaded, and while I still think his AAV is a bit high I agree that this ends up being a really good deal for the Cubs. Don't see any way that Heyward doesn't opt out after 4 years unless he's absolutely atrocious for the Cubs, in which case I will be happy.

 

[bluesfan94]

Can't see how/why the Cardinals didn't do more to beat this.

 

[JS19]

Can't see how/why the Cardinals didn't do more to beat this.

How much more could they do? Heyward was rumoured to have been offered 200mil from them. IIRC, Heyward simply preferred the Cubs.

 

[bluesfan94]

How much more could they do? Heyward was rumoured to have been offered 200mil from them. IIRC, Heyward simply preferred the Cubs.

I thought the Cardinals didn't offer an opt out?

 

[Marc the Habs Fan]

So they were open to it.

With a 20 mil signing bonus isn't it really more like 4/98?

Pretty sure he meant 3 years/78 M

So he is guaranteed:

Signing bonus of 20 M
2016: $15 million
2017: $21.5 million
2018: $21.5 million

That equals 78 M.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

So much hype for an overrated player. Terrific defensively. Ordinary offensively.

I would tend to agree. I know he's a sabremetrician's wet dream, but the guy's overrated IMO. His walk rate has been declining, his "power" has seemed to level off at like 13 homers a year (which for a guy 6'5" 245 is pathetic), he has a terrible postseason batting average, and he plays a position where it's pretty easy to hide a mediocre fielder. Not to mention the sky is the limit with Soler, who they have control over until 2020 I believe. They better get A LOT back if they plan on dealing him, otherwise this signing could prove to be a colossal mistake.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

The Cubs don't need him to be a big offensive threat though. You could argue he's the third worst bat in that lineup.

Rizzo/Schwarber/Bryant/Soler/Zobrist are all certainly better bats.

What he will help with is their defense which was atrocious in the NLCS. He should help cover some of the gaffes coming from Schwarber in left. I doubt the Cubs regret this signing too much. The money is likely too high but they've got enough where it shouldn't hurt them too much.

 

[Big Poppa Puck]

I would tend to agree. I know he's a sabremetrician's wet dream, but the guy's overrated IMO. His walk rate has been declining, his "power" has seemed to level off at like 13 homers a year (which for a guy 6'5" 245 is pathetic), he has a terrible postseason batting average, and he plays a position where it's pretty easy to hide a mediocre fielder. Not to mention the sky is the limit with Soler, who they have control over until 2020 I believe. They better get A LOT back if they plan on dealing him, otherwise this signing could prove to be a colossal mistake.

It's easier to hide a mediocre fielder in LF than RF and even if it wasn't he's still the best RF in the game.

Also he was probably one of the only Cardinals who even showed up in the playoffs this year.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I would tend to agree. I know he's a sabremetrician's wet dream, but the guy's overrated IMO. His walk rate has been declining, his "power" has seemed to level off at like 13 homers a year (which for a guy 6'5" 245 is pathetic), he has a terrible postseason batting average, and he plays a position where it's pretty easy to hide a mediocre fielder. Not to mention the sky is the limit with Soler, who they have control over until 2020 I believe. They better get A LOT back if they plan on dealing him, otherwise this signing could prove to be a colossal mistake.

I agree with all this. I do think he'll help the Cubs, but $22 mil is insane.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'd rather have the similar production, but more power and speed but more mental lapses, and team friendly contract of Starling Marte, personally.

 

[le_sean]

I'd rather have the similar production, but more power and speed but more mental lapses, and team friendly contract of Starling Marte, personally.

When was Marte ever an option for the Cubs?

Heyward is 7th in WAR since 2012.

As stated by Dolph, the Cubs don't need his offence, though he is good at getting on base. When has he ever been surrounded by this type of offensive talent? Cards had Carpenter, great. Before that, the Braves were a poor hitting team.

This allows the Cubbies to trade Soler for a pitcher like Carrasco or Ross. Then they can laugh their way to the division.

 

[Winger for Hire]

When was Marte ever an option for the Cubs?

I never said he was. I'm just highlighting that scouting and developing and identifying talent early usually leads to the same type of players not running the risk of being giant albatrosses in terms of contracts.

It's nice to go out and "win the offseason" by signing a Heyward, Price, whoever, but I think it's better (and more gratifying, not to mention cost efficient) to have the Martes, McCutchens, Rizzos, Goldschmidts, Sales.

 

[le_sean]

I never said he was. I'm just highlighting that scouting and developing and identifying talent early usually leads to the same type of players not running the risk of being giant albatrosses in terms of contracts.

It's nice to go out and "win the offseason" by signing a Heyward, Price, whoever, but I think it's better (and more gratifying, not to mention cost efficient) to have the Martes, McCutchens, Rizzos, Goldschmidts, Sales.

Okay...literally the entire Cubs lineup is made up of these players which allowed them to add pieces like Zobrist and Heyward to push them further. You're highlighting a Cubs strength more than downgrading their addition.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Okay...literally the entire Cubs lineup is made up of these players which allowed them to add pieces like Zobrist and Heyward to push them further. You're highlighting a Cubs strength more than downgrading their addition.

And as a Pirate fan, as much as I'd love to bash the Cubs, they have a pretty solid lineup now.

I'm in no way trying to downgrade Heyward (Zobrist, not crazy about him and the contract, but I can see the allure and how he fits), the man is a mighty fine ballplayer. I just don't see the huge upside of paying a player upwards of $20mil, long term who only excels at defense. His bat is pretty average.

He has some pop, but when he hits for power (2012), his average and OBP suffer. He fits into the Cubs as a place-setter and defensive anchor and that's fine. I just don't see the value of that kind of player making $20mil+ a season.

I'm probably jaded by my years of being a "small market fan". Weighing a player's production against their salary and factoring that against a team's budget. All that goes out the window when your budget boarders on unlimited.

And for the record, the Cubs aren't built on those cheap contracts for superstar players. They have Rizzo that falls into that category, the rest fall into pre-arb deals that are going to balloon real quick.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

The Cubs obviously need more guys who strike out a ton, like Marte. It also helps that he doesn't take any walks.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I didn't want to turn this into Heyward vs Marte. I just wanted point out how much value there is in developing your own players. Probably the wrong thread to do it in, in hindsight.

And for the record, Heyward does strike out less and walk more than Marte, but it's not a wide gap, when you add in HBPs.

Last 3 seasons-
Marte- 392 Ks, 140 BB/HBP
Heyward- 261 Ks, 187 BB/HBP

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

I didn't want to turn this into Heyward vs Marte. I just wanted point out how much value there is in developing your own players. Probably the wrong thread to do it in, in hindsight.

And for the record, Heyward does strike out less and walk more than Marte, but it's not a wide gap, when you add in HBPs.

Last 3 seasons-
Marte- 392 Ks, 140 BB/HBP
Heyward- 261 Ks, 187 BB/HBP

Not that K's are a be all tell stat but the gap there is like the grand canyon.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

I didn't want to turn this into Heyward vs Marte. I just wanted point out how much value there is in developing your own players. Probably the wrong thread to do it in, in hindsight.

And for the record, Heyward does strike out less and walk more than Marte, but it's not a wide gap, when you add in HBPs.

Last 3 seasons-
Marte- 392 Ks, 140 BB/HBP
Heyward- 261 Ks, 187 BB/HBP

HBP has nothing to do with walk rates. It gets counted into wOBA, but it doesn't measure someone's plate discipline.

Over their careeers

Marte - 4.8% BB% (real ****in ******) and 22.9% K%
Heyward - 10.8% BB% and 18.5% K%

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Not that K's are a be all tell stat but the gap there is like the grand canyon.

47 walks is a ****ton, too.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

47 walks is a ****ton, too.

No doubt it's substantial but over 3 years it's not quite as glaring as 131 K's. That's basically an extra seasons worth for someone who strikes out a lot.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

No doubt it's substantial but over 3 years it's not quite as glaring as 131 K's. That's basically an extra seasons worth for someone who strikes out a lot.

Over 600 PA's, this player would have a 7.8% BB rate and a 21.8% K rate. Tulo, Headley, Semien, and Brandon Crawford are similar.

 

[BGDDYKWL]

What he will help with is their defense which was atrocious in the NLCS. He should help cover some of the gaffes coming from Schwarber in left. I doubt the Cubs regret this signing too much. The money is likely too high but they've got enough where it shouldn't hurt them too much.

If they put him in CF and that allows Schwarber to play everyday I like this deal A LOT more. But him over Soler in RF (overall) isn't even an upgrade IMO.

Also he was probably one of the only Cardinals who even showed up in the playoffs this year.

Yeah I meant his career postseason stats. He was definitely good this year in the playoffs.

This allows the Cubbies to trade Soler for a pitcher like Carrasco or Ross. Then they can laugh their way to the division.

This is the level of pitcher I'd have to get to even think about trading Soler.

 

[ChiGuySez]

Besides assisting the Cards in their demise with this signing.