News Article: Jason Botterill Has Buffalo on the Right Track

[valet]

The biggest reason I hate the ROR trade: before it was made because of having a guy who many feel will be a generational talent dropped into our lap there was hope. Dahlin and Casey gave us hope that if we just make a few shrewd moves we could have our first enjoyable season in close to a decade. We could actually play meaningfull games after the all star break, and even if we failed to make the playoffs (which would probably be the ultimate result but you never know) we could all hold our heads high and be proud of our team and how they were no longer the league punching bag. The ROR trade all but destroyed any chance of that happening. The 3 guys we got (and I'm including TT even though I suspect he is Rochester bound) don't come close to filling the huge hole getting rid of ROR left. Barring a total miracle we get another brutal waste of a season. I was at what was literally the last meaningful game this team played that they won, the game 5 OT win in 2011 (The last meaningful game this team has played period was the game 7). 7 years of complete meaningless and pointless hockey with no joy whatsoever is enough.

I respectfully disagree. I think it's a fools errand to believe that we're a playoff contending team with or without ror this upcoming season. Don't get me wrong, he could help us... but I don't think he puts us over the top on getting back to the post season. look at our defense and bottom six right now and compare those guys to guys on the top teams. They're all a level above. We have the core in place right now for the most part, and those players produced, but they're nothing without a supporting cast. We aren't a few shrewd moves away. We're not Pittsburgh retooling for another cup run or Nashville making deals to solidify their already deep lineup.

maybe an overview of my approach as a fan would help: the seven years no playoffs thing doesn't bother me much. I get how exciting playoff hockey can be. I've followed the team the majority of my life, and I believe in the general 'tides' of professional sports. Sometimes your team is good, sometimes it's bad, but every fanbase goes through it and it's not the end of the world. Things will get better again. And since it's completely out of our control there's no sense getting upset about it

 

[DJN21]

I respectfully disagree. I think it's a fools errand to believe that we're a playoff contending team with or without ror this upcoming season. Don't get me wrong, he could help us... but I don't think he puts us over the top on getting back to the post season. look at our defense and bottom six right now and compare those guys to guys on the top teams. They're all a level above. We have the core in place right now for the most part, and those players produced, but they're nothing without a supporting cast. We aren't a few shrewd moves away. We're not Pittsburgh retooling for another cup run or Nashville making deals to solidify their already deep lineup.

maybe an overview of my approach as a fan would help: the seven years no playoffs thing doesn't bother me much. I get how exciting playoff hockey can be. I've followed the team the majority of my life, and I believe in the general 'tides' of professional sports. Sometimes your team is good, sometimes it's bad, but every fanbase goes through it and it's not the end of the world. Things will get better again. And since it's completely out of our control there's no sense getting upset about it

You are absolutely right that we aren't a ror away from a cup or last place. We will finish mediocre or bottom barrel with or without him.

The problem most people have is his usage and the trickle down effects it has on this team. He sheltered every young forward by taking the hard minutes until we can ease them into it.
That's the obvious answer.

It also further depleted an already pathetic top 6. Unless you believe Bergland can replicate ror's defensive acumen and points it flat out hurts our top 6 six.

Now I think Bergland is actually gonna be a great add for us. Maybe his point totals are only 10 or 15 points off ror...on the stat sheet that seems like a win considering we got multiple other assets on top of berg.

Bergland won't set face off records, he won't get selke votes, he won't tread water or thrive in defensive match up games, he won't play half the game and still be serviceable like ror was. Furthermore we are trying to build momentum for eichel, reinhart, mitts and depelting the skill in our top 6 does them no favors there.

We upgraded in goal but subtracted one of the best 2way forwards in the league...who by the way eats major minutes. That in and of itself erases the value added from our upgrade in goal.

Yes thompson could add value to the club, we could finally nail a late 1st round pick, Dahlin could be so good that he swings the pendulum of defensively losing ror back to even...I'm a betting man but not that much. The trickle down effect of ror's abscence and lack of ability to wager higher end value while GAINING cap is a huge red flag for me. I hope I am wrong.

 

[sabremike]

The thing is that the league is almost rigged to produce parity to where almost any team can make the playoffs if things break right. Colorado was the worst team of the post lockout era, the Devils were terrible. Both made the playoffs last year. There is no excuse for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 7 years in a row. There is no excuse to make a move that makes your team significantly worse and the only thing you get are a few lottery tickets who have a less than 50% chance of ever amounting to anything, and even if they do it's 4 years away.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

what do you mean? I feel like there's a disconnect.

I like tage too, if he puts it all together he could be a 30 goal guy

Was replying specifically to this part:

this trade will matter a lot less than some folks are making it out to be in the long run

 

[Team Cozens]

Still can’t believe Botts was able to trade away a slow skating, over paid #2 C and get back 5 nice pieces in return. John Shannon thought we would only get a 2nd round pick. Lol​

 

[Icicle]

You are absolutely right that we aren't a ror away from a cup or last place. We will finish mediocre or bottom barrel with or without him.

The problem most people have is his usage and the trickle down effects it has on this team. He sheltered every young forward by taking the hard minutes until we can ease them into it.
That's the obvious answer.

It also further depleted an already pathetic top 6. Unless you believe Bergland can replicate ror's defensive acumen and points it flat out hurts our top 6 six.

Now I think Bergland is actually gonna be a great add for us. Maybe his point totals are only 10 or 15 points off ror...on the stat sheet that seems like a win considering we got multiple other assets on top of berg.

Bergland won't set face off records, he won't get selke votes, he won't tread water or thrive in defensive match up games, he won't play half the game and still be serviceable like ror was. Furthermore we are trying to build momentum for eichel, reinhart, mitts and depelting the skill in our top 6 does them no favors there.

We upgraded in goal but subtracted one of the best 2way forwards in the league...who by the way eats major minutes. That in and of itself erases the value added from our upgrade in goal.

Yes thompson could add value to the club, we could finally nail a late 1st round pick, Dahlin could be so good that he swings the pendulum of defensively losing ror back to even...I'm a betting man but not that much. The trickle down effect of ror's abscence and lack of ability to wager higher end value while GAINING cap is a huge red flag for me. I hope I am wrong.

ROR was an offensive black hole that only did things on Jack's PP that took up all the minutes in the game with his ultra conservative slow play that undermined any faith this team had in scoring goals to win a game. If Jack wasn't on his game, or the 3rd line chumps weren't scoring, this team had zero chance of winning. Sheltering? pfft Toronto gets scored on all the time and they're doing fine. Such overrated BS ROR and his role was. Can't wait for you all to be proven so incredibly wrong-- just for you to watch ROR only score 40 points next year and still come to some conclusion the Sabres would've been better off with him.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Still can’t believe Botts was able to trade away a slow skating, over paid #2 C and get back 5 nice pieces in return. John Shannon thought we would only get a 2nd round pick. Lol​

Still can't believe Shannon said that. Of course we have our own village idiot Paul Hamilton who said the same but he did concede maybe O'Reilly could get a low 1st round pick.

 

[Onry]

That last part is like Mike Francesca when he is forced to talk hockey and it's clear he has no idea what he is talking about and he's winging it.

And..depending on the personality (like Cowherd, for example) it gets worse. Too many observers confuse insightful commentary for a loud schtick for ratings without any depth of substance.

I don't mean to hijack the thread, but as a final related note: I am a fan of this team from its beginning but never played a moment of organized hockey, so I (and probably more lurkers) don't have the perspective and technical knowledge of the sport that others who post here do. That's the reason why I come here...to try to learn something.

If only all the NHL media outlets and their analysis personalities could make the transition that the NFL talking heads did...chalk board talk with a goal toward educating the average fan into the intricacies of professional hockey at the highest level...interest in the NHL would grow. Thus endeth the sermon.

 

[joshjull]

I listen to Sirius NHL all the time and, if I understand the original context leading to this post, it derived from the opinion of Jim "Boomer" Gordon and Alberga of their GM Report Card opinion of the Sabres.

Using them as the specific example, IMO it's less their ability to assess dispassionately and more reflects their lack of detailed knowledge of the specifics of the dynamics of each team. For example, in that GM report card analysis on goalies, they generalized the potential of Lehner and cited .920 +/-...but presumably don't know the finer detail of Robin's shoot-out performance and the points it cost this team, nor the reported refusal by him to practice.

Gordon had to ask, on the air in that segment, if Mittlestadt was out of school.

That certainly plays a role. The point I was trying to express initially to Montag who was wondering why nationally the view of the trade isn't as negative as it was on here. In simplest terms, they just don't care or are as engaged about this as we are. Part of that includes not fully knowing the situation here. I don't think that's an earth shattering comment or hard to imagine. Maybe I didn't express it as clearly as I could have.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

The thing is that the league is almost rigged to produce parity to where almost any team can make the playoffs if things break right. Colorado was the worst team of the post lockout era, the Devils were terrible. Both made the playoffs last year. There is no excuse for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 7 years in a row. There is no excuse to make a move that makes your team significantly worse and the only thing you get are a few lottery tickets who have a less than 50% chance of ever amounting to anything, and even if they do it's 4 years away.

If you believe the first bold statement you must acknowledge the probabilities of the second. People routinely underestimate the size of the tails.

 

[joshjull]

The post I quoted in its entirety is naive at best.

Naive? Nah. Certainly poorly expressed. But boy did you take that and run with it.

 

[truthbluth]

ROR was an offensive black hole that only did things on Jack's PP that took up all the minutes in the game with his ultra conservative slow play that undermined any faith this team had in scoring goals to win a game. If Jack wasn't on his game, or the 3rd line chumps weren't scoring, this team had zero chance of winning. Sheltering? pfft Toronto gets scored on all the time and they're doing fine. Such overrated BS ROR and his role was. Can't wait for you all to be proven so incredibly wrong-- just for you to watch ROR only score 40 points next year and still come to some conclusion the Sabres would've been better off with him.

While it is possible that RoR will not be missed to the extent that many of us think, I cannot understand your reasoning that he, 'was an offensive black hole.' There is no statistical support for this, besides his pedestrian (i.e. not at all terrible) 1.6 EV P/60, which could easily be countered by his 96.8 EV PDO and his 57.4% D zone starts.

Perhaps trying to paint the RoR trade as a huge win for the Sabres because O'Reilly, "only did things on Jack's PP," and that he, "took up all the minutes in the game with his ultra conservative slow play," which are both provably false, maybe a more convincing course of action would be to make the case that the Sabres could be be better because they've improved depth, and can shoulder the center load in other ways.

One of the primary reasons that this argument keeps dragging on is that both sides of the debate are exaggerating a great deal.

In the meantime, I don't know who on the Sabres is going to take defensive zone faceoffs in the waning minutes while protecting a one goal lead. There isn't a statistical argument that that player is on the Sabres roster right now, other than the general statistical argument that winning faceoffs doesn't ever matter, which is somewhat compelling. Even still, I don't see a player on the Sabres roster that has shown success in playing a defensive center role.

 

[Icicle]

While it is possible that RoR will not be missed to the extent that many of us think, I cannot understand your reasoning that he, 'was an offensive black hole.' There is no statistical support for this, besides his pedestrian (i.e. not at all terrible) 1.6 EV P/60, which could easily be countered by his 96.8 EV PDO and his 57.4% D zone starts.

Perhaps trying to paint the RoR trade as a huge win for the Sabres because O'Reilly, "only did things on Jack's PP," and that he, "took up all the minutes in the game with his ultra conservative slow play," which are both provably false, maybe a more convincing course of action would be to make the case that the Sabres could be be better because they've improved depth, and can shoulder the center load in other ways.

One of the primary reasons that this argument keeps dragging on is that both sides of the debate are exaggerating a great deal.

In the meantime, I don't know who on the Sabres is going to take defensive zone faceoffs in the waning minutes while protecting a one goal lead. There isn't a statistical argument that that player is on the Sabres roster right now, other than the general statistical argument that winning faceoffs doesn't ever matter, which is somewhat compelling. Even still, I don't see a player on the Sabres roster that has shown success in playing a defensive center role.

Berglund is almost as good at faceoffs, and you don't have to dog him with 30 minutes a night! A competent 3rd line and... you have a 2nd line that can focus on scoring goals. You know, what the center who has the team's best wingers should be doing. The center who had Reinhart all season. And they couldn't score ES goals. Or create opportunities. ROR never did anything unless he picked off a pass from a defender in those rare instances. Otherwise they played BORING, conservative play that sucked the soul out of the team seeing that get 50% of the ice-time.

No, it's not extremes. ROR had pitiful ES production for a 7.5 million dollar center getting 30 minutes a night. I don't care how much better than Nolan he was, he is an all-star 3rd line center getting 1st line minutes on this team-- and the results showed! Last place on a hopeless team that had no confidence in scoring!


57% d zone starts. That's still 43% in the o-zone. WHERES HIS SCORING? Gone. Notta. Ya'll make it out like having 5% more of a zone start, for a guy taking a record beating number of faceoffs, is somehow justification for him scoring ES goals at a bad 3rd liners pace? The perspective is he was played TONS of minutes and the team wallowed in conservative, oh my the corsi's at least good, but can't win game play when he's out there. For half the game.

ROR is the most overrated player I've ever seen. It's ridiculous. And I'm saying that despite the people trying to compare Reinhart to Eichel right now.


You keep harping on 'statistical proofs', but not acknowledging that the statistics, the way they're setup, love ROR because he takes faceoffs, was setup to take a lot of faceoffs, and doesn't take penalties. What you're leaving out is the correlation that those factors have on actually scoring goals-- ROR is the outlier in all of them! Outlier. I do statistics daily, and outliers can't just be ignored, or looked at in a vacuum. And when people keep posting ROR's stats-- it's just that. A vacuum. You then take his numbers and put it next to similar, 2nd line centers on other teams, LIKE YOU SHOULD BE, and tell me ROR not only fits, but is so much better he really should be compared to other team's 1Cs.

Even the Athletic stats guy, when looking at ROR comparables, couldn't get the statistics to show ROR as anything more than a top-tier 3rd liner. And people here trashed on him.

The confirmation bias here is with posters trying to defend ROR. Post the stats versus his actual comparable and tell me what you see. And when you tell me he's just as good as Bergeron-- I'll be asking for you to show his actual production, not his 'shot generation' correlation, and tell me that again with a straight face.

 

[Buf fan in Nash]

Did we get the best possible return in the ROR trade? No.

But the level of hot takes people are making is a bit overboard. I'm happy to have Berglund on the team and don't feel he is as big of a downgrade from ROR as people are making it seem. I don't expect much from Sobotka but hes better than most of the garage we had in our bottom 6 last year. The other pieces of the trade can hopefully help future cup runs.

 

[valet]

Was replying specifically to this part:

this trade will matter a lot less than some folks are making it out to be in the long run

Ohhhh, I see

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Berglund is almost as good at faceoffs, and you don't have to dog him with 30 minutes a night! A competent 3rd line and... you have a 2nd line that can focus on scoring goals. You know, what the center who has the team's best wingers should be doing. The center who had Reinhart all season. And they couldn't score ES goals. Or create opportunities. ROR never did anything unless he picked off a pass from a defender in those rare instances. Otherwise they played BORING, conservative play that sucked the soul out of the team seeing that get 50% of the ice-time.

No, it's not extremes. ROR had pitiful ES production for a 7.5 million dollar center getting 30 minutes a night. I don't care how much better than Nolan he was, he is an all-star 3rd line center getting 1st line minutes on this team-- and the results showed! Last place on a hopeless team that had no confidence in scoring!


57% d zone starts. That's still 43% in the o-zone. WHERES HIS SCORING? Gone. Notta. Ya'll make it out like having 5% more of a zone start, for a guy taking a record beating number of faceoffs, is somehow justification for him scoring ES goals at a bad 3rd liners pace? The perspective is he was played TONS of minutes and the team wallowed in conservative, oh my the corsi's at least good, but can't win game play when he's out there. For half the game.

ROR is the most overrated player I've ever seen. It's ridiculous. And I'm saying that despite the people trying to compare Reinhart to Eichel right now.


You keep harping on 'statistical proofs', but not acknowledging that the statistics, the way they're setup, love ROR because he takes faceoffs, was setup to take a lot of faceoffs, and doesn't take penalties. What you're leaving out is the correlation that those factors have on actually scoring goals-- ROR is the outlier in all of them! Outlier. I do statistics daily, and outliers can't just be ignored, or looked at in a vacuum. And when people keep posting ROR's stats-- it's just that. A vacuum. You then take his numbers and put it next to similar, 2nd line centers on other teams, LIKE YOU SHOULD BE, and tell me ROR not only fits, but is so much better he really should be compared to other team's 1Cs.

Even the Athletic stats guy, when looking at ROR comparables, couldn't get the statistics to show ROR as anything more than a top-tier 3rd liner. And people here trashed on him.

The confirmation bias here is with posters trying to defend ROR. Post the stats versus his actual comparable and tell me what you see. And when you tell me he's just as good as Bergeron-- I'll be asking for you to show his actual production, not his 'shot generation' correlation, and tell me that again with a straight face.

The athletic - in a review of like 300 ES minutes - said O’Reilly was the *primary contributor to shots* at the rate of a 2nd/3rd liner. This was entirely due to poor individual shot generation.

The same publication, also said O'Reilly's *overall contributions* were that of a top 30 player in the league.

You’re so far out of your depth right now.

 

[debaser66]

Berglund is almost as good at faceoffs, and you don't have to dog him with 30 minutes a night! A competent 3rd line and... you have a 2nd line that can focus on scoring goals. You know, what the center who has the team's best wingers should be doing. The center who had Reinhart all season. And they couldn't score ES goals. Or create opportunities. ROR never did anything unless he picked off a pass from a defender in those rare instances. Otherwise they played BORING, conservative play that sucked the soul out of the team seeing that get 50% of the ice-time.

No, it's not extremes. ROR had pitiful ES production for a 7.5 million dollar center getting 30 minutes a night. I don't care how much better than Nolan he was, he is an all-star 3rd line center getting 1st line minutes on this team-- and the results showed! Last place on a hopeless team that had no confidence in scoring!


57% d zone starts. That's still 43% in the o-zone. WHERES HIS SCORING? Gone. Notta. Ya'll make it out like having 5% more of a zone start, for a guy taking a record beating number of faceoffs, is somehow justification for him scoring ES goals at a bad 3rd liners pace? The perspective is he was played TONS of minutes and the team wallowed in conservative, oh my the corsi's at least good, but can't win game play when he's out there. For half the game.

ROR is the most overrated player I've ever seen. It's ridiculous. And I'm saying that despite the people trying to compare Reinhart to Eichel right now.


You keep harping on 'statistical proofs', but not acknowledging that the statistics, the way they're setup, love ROR because he takes faceoffs, was setup to take a lot of faceoffs, and doesn't take penalties. What you're leaving out is the correlation that those factors have on actually scoring goals-- ROR is the outlier in all of them! Outlier. I do statistics daily, and outliers can't just be ignored, or looked at in a vacuum. And when people keep posting ROR's stats-- it's just that. A vacuum. You then take his numbers and put it next to similar, 2nd line centers on other teams, LIKE YOU SHOULD BE, and tell me ROR not only fits, but is so much better he really should be compared to other team's 1Cs.

Even the Athletic stats guy, when looking at ROR comparables, couldn't get the statistics to show ROR as anything more than a top-tier 3rd liner. And people here trashed on him.

The confirmation bias here is with posters trying to defend ROR. Post the stats versus his actual comparable and tell me what you see. And when you tell me he's just as good as Bergeron-- I'll be asking for you to show his actual production, not his 'shot generation' correlation, and tell me that again with a straight face.

Or last and or current coach must be completely incompetent of leaning on this 3rd line center so much. And Housley is still here, so be careful were u spin this.
Also St. Louis must be thinking rebuild of trading so many pieces to make this bum their 2nd and probable 1st line center since they got now 2nd line centers in Schenn and ROR.
I hope the parts who came back in the trade work out but it was what it was a quantity for quality trade.

 

[Royal Thunder]

You are absolutely right that we aren't a ror away from a cup or last place. We will finish mediocre or bottom barrel with or without him.

The problem most people have is his usage and the trickle down effects it has on this team. He sheltered every young forward by taking the hard minutes until we can ease them into it.
That's the obvious answer.

It also further depleted an already pathetic top 6. Unless you believe Bergland can replicate ror's defensive acumen and points it flat out hurts our top 6 six.

Now I think Bergland is actually gonna be a great add for us. Maybe his point totals are only 10 or 15 points off ror...on the stat sheet that seems like a win considering we got multiple other assets on top of berg.

Bergland won't set face off records, he won't get selke votes, he won't tread water or thrive in defensive match up games, he won't play half the game and still be serviceable like ror was. Furthermore we are trying to build momentum for eichel, reinhart, mitts and depelting the skill in our top 6 does them no favors there.

We upgraded in goal but subtracted one of the best 2way forwards in the league...who by the way eats major minutes. That in and of itself erases the value added from our upgrade in goal.

Yes thompson could add value to the club, we could finally nail a late 1st round pick, Dahlin could be so good that he swings the pendulum of defensively losing ror back to even...I'm a betting man but not that much. The trickle down effect of ror's abscence and lack of ability to wager higher end value while GAINING cap is a huge red flag for me. I hope I am wrong.

If you go and look up the top forwards in average TOI last year, ROR's production is glaringly low compared to almost everyone else up there with him. He looks like an outlier who did not fully deserve those minutes. Yes he played a ton of minutes but it's not like he was thriving in these minutes. This team looked slow the last few years and a big part of that was this guy playing close to half of every game.

We absolutely bled goals against last season, can it really get much worse? Strengthening the bottom 6 should improve us more defensively and overall since we can actually leverage 2 scoring lines.

 

[truthbluth]

Berglund is almost as good at faceoffs,

Career 47% FO

and you don't have to dog him with 30 minutes a night!

20

A competent 3rd line and... you have a 2nd line that can focus on scoring goals. You know, what the center who has the team's best wingers should be doing. The center who had Reinhart all season.

He played 1/3 of the season with Reinhart. And 1/3 with Pouliot.

And they couldn't score ES goals.

Half true. Ryan's 34 ES pts was 2nd on the team, and his 1.6 EV P/60 is 2nd line equivalent for the league, let alone on the team with the worst even strength scoring in the league.

Or create opportunities.

False. His on ice SH% of 6 is incredibly low and disguises the 52% HDCF% that the Sabres enjoyed while O'Reilly was on the ice. The Sabres had the puck with O'Reilly on the ice, but they didn't bury chances.

ROR never did anything unless he picked off a pass from a defender in those rare instances. Otherwise they played BORING, conservative play that sucked the soul out of the team seeing that get 50% of the ice-time.

O'Reilly saw less EV time than Kane last season, barely more than Eichel, and his 20:49 all situations per night is hardly notable.

No, it's not extremes. ROR had pitiful ES production for a 7.5 million dollar center getting 30 minutes a night.

Again with the unnecessary exaggeration. 20:49 ATOI, and his 15:39 EVTOI was behind Evander Kane, and just barely ahead of Jack Eichel.

I don't care how much better than Nolan he was, he is an all-star 3rd line center getting 1st line minutes on this team-- and the results showed! Last place on a hopeless team that had no confidence in scoring!


57% d zone starts. That's still 43% in the o-zone. WHERES HIS SCORING? Gone. Notta.

We talked about Exaggeration. 1.6 P/60 rates him in the top half of regular NHL forwards. Similar numbers to TJ Oshie, Boone Jenner, Wayne Simmonds, Henrik Zetterberg, Conor Sheary, Brock Nelson, Joe Thornton and....Sam Reinhart. And his 34 EV points were 2nd on the Sabres.

Ya'll make it out like having 5% more of a zone start, for a guy taking a record beating number of faceoffs, is somehow justification for him scoring ES goals at a bad 3rd liners pace?

Again with the exaggeration, if you assume an even distribution among teams of even strength scoring, Ryan O'Reilly scored at a rate squarely in the 2nd quartile, which puts his production at 2nd line scoring. If you acknowledge that scoring is not even distributed, and that the Sabres were the worst even strength scoring team in the league, than O'Reilly's 1.6 is pretty good. Oh yeah, his 34 EV pts trailed only Jack Eichel on the team.

The perspective is he was played TONS of minutes and the team wallowed in conservative, oh my the corsi's at least good, but can't win game play when he's out there. For half the game.

Again with the exaggeration. He played high, not outrageous minutes last year.

ROR is the most overrated player I've ever seen. It's ridiculous. And I'm saying that despite the people trying to compare Reinhart to Eichel right now.

You keep harping on 'statistical proofs', but not acknowledging that the statistics, the way they're setup, love ROR because he takes faceoffs,

Also he's an expert at shot suppression

was setup to take a lot of faceoffs, and doesn't take penalties.

An INCREDIBLY important stat for someone who plays so much and so well in the D Zone.

What you're leaving out is the correlation that those factors have on actually scoring goals-- ROR is the outlier in all of them! Outlier.

There is a stat that approximates puck luck. It's called PDO. Ryan had atrocious puck luck last year. 96.8 is among the worst in the league.

I do statistics daily, and outliers can't just be ignored, or looked at in a vacuum. And when people keep posting ROR's stats-- it's just that. A vacuum. You then take his numbers and put it next to similar, 2nd line centers on other teams, LIKE YOU SHOULD BE, and tell me ROR not only fits, but is so much better he really should be compared to other team's 1Cs.

Even the Athletic stats guy, when looking at ROR comparables, couldn't get the statistics to show ROR as anything more than a top-tier 3rd liner.

Stimson? I promise you he never said anything of the sort. Real stats people universally love Ryan O'Reilly.

And people here trashed on him.

The confirmation bias here is with posters trying to defend ROR. Post the stats versus his actual comparable and tell me what you see. And when you tell me he's just as good as Bergeron-- I'll be asking for you to show his actual production, not his 'shot generation' correlation, and tell me that again with a straight face.

So your issue is just with Jame, who as far as I know, is the only one throwing around Bergeron's name. When O'Reilly played with the caliber of teammates that Bergeron does, in Colorado, his P/60 at EV was 2.0, Bergeron is about 2.3 for his career.

Overall, to paint a picture the O'Reilly is slightly overrated, and that he doesn't generate enough goals consistently over the years at even strength to justify the 1st line center talk would be reasonable and compelling, but you've swung way out on a branch of exaggeration, and nobody who disagrees with you is going to take a single word of yours seriously while you continue to do so.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

Again, the “second/third liner” conclusion referred exclusively to the rate at which O’Reilly created shots through individual shot attempts and passes that led to shots. This was based on hand tracked passing data that covered less than 400 minutes.

Unfortunately, it looks like we’re going to hear it parroted as a comprehensive analysis.

What’s even more fun is that the people citing that stat will keep ignoring the work of the same publication that uses a more complete sample size and additional offensive and defensive factors, because it concludes that O’Reilly has been a top 30 player in the league.

They will also ignore the part of the passing data project that has Eichel in the bottom 10% of defensive players for his career.

 

[Dingo44]

It's almost like there are two O'Reilly trade threads...

 

[Jim Bob]

It's almost like there are two O'Reilly trade threads...

It was the best of trades, it was the worst of trades...

 

[slip]

The thing is that the league is almost rigged to produce parity to where almost any team can make the playoffs if things break right. Colorado was the worst team of the post lockout era, the Devils were terrible. Both made the playoffs last year. There is no excuse for an NHL team to miss the playoffs 7 years in a row. There is no excuse to make a move that makes your team significantly worse and the only thing you get are a few lottery tickets who have a less than 50% chance of ever amounting to anything, and even if they do it's 4 years away.

The Sabres have missed the playoffs every single season the Pegulas have owned the franchise, excluding the first (team was purchased in Jan-Feb).

I'm sure it's just coincidence.

 

[Dingo44]

The Sabres have missed the playoffs every single season the Pegulas have owned the franchise, excluding the first (team was purchased in Jan-Feb).

I'm sure it's just coincidence.

Well they did the quick fix with the high priced free agents, then that failed miserably, so now we're into the rebuild years that keep going. But at least part of the time has been part of the "process".

 

[Lloydchristmas138]

I look at the ROR trade as trading in a 5$ bill for five 1$ bills and I think thats exactly what this team needed. Making a lateral move like ROR for Parayko to me doesn't improve the team. This team needs bodies. The forward depth was abysmal, still pretty much is. Berglund and Sobotka are legitimate NHL players that produce better than what we had, and even though they can be seen as cap dumps for the Blues, for us they're important pieces to get back.. It's not guaranteed we could have gotten similar players in free agency necessarily, FA is a two-way street. Failures of Girgensons, Larsson, Bailey, Fasching and really anyone to provide secondary scoring were gonna continue bring us down. Berglund, Thompson and Sobotka is like acquiring an entire 3rd line (with potential for Thompson top6)…. All while not even mentioning the 1st and 2nd rd picks, the speculated locker room issues and the lack of speed of our highest paid players.

On the topic of Botts and what is probably going on in that big head of his..

Out- O'Reilly, Pouliout, Gorges, Nolan, Josefson, Antipin, Lehner/Johnson

Expected in- Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Guhle, Berglund, Sheary, Sobotka, Thompson, Hunwick, Hutton/Ullmark, can I say Bogosian?

Having the 3 first round picks is obviously also an important part of his moves to rebuild the depth and quality around Eichel/Dahlin so I will say that yeah, I get what he's trying to do.. I think Jason Botterill has Buffalo on the right track.