News Article: Jason Botterill Has Buffalo on the Right Track

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truthbluth

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I look at the ROR trade as trading in a 5$ bill for five 1$ bills and I think thats exactly what this team needed. Making a lateral move like ROR for Parayko to me doesn't improve the team. This team needs bodies. The forward depth was abysmal, still pretty much is. Berglund and Sobotka are legitimate NHL players that produce better than what we had, and even though they can be seen as cap dumps for the Blues, for us they're important pieces to get back.. It's not guaranteed we could have gotten similar players in free agency necessarily, FA is a two-way street. Failures of Girgensons, Larsson, Bailey, Fasching and really anyone to provide secondary scoring were gonna continue bring us down. Berglund, Thompson and Sobotka is like acquiring an entire 3rd line (with potential for Thompson top6)…. All while not even mentioning the 1st and 2nd rd picks, the speculated locker room issues and the lack of speed of our highest paid players.

On the topic of Botts and what is probably going on in that big head of his..

Out- O'Reilly, Pouliout, Gorges, Nolan, Josefson, Antipin, Lehner/Johnson

Expected in- Dahlin, Mittelstadt, Guhle, Berglund, Sheary, Sobotka, Thompson, Hunwick, Hutton/Ullmark, can I say Bogosian?

Having the 3 first round picks is obviously also an important part of his moves to rebuild the depth and quality around Eichel/Dahlin so I will say that yeah, I get what he's trying to do.. I think Jason Botterill has Buffalo on the right track.
Mark?
 

Icicle

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He played 1/3 of the season with Reinhart. And 1/3 with Pouliot.

Half true. Ryan's 34 ES pts was 2nd on the team, and his 1.6 EV P/60 is 2nd line equivalent for the league, let alone on the team with the worst even strength scoring in the league.

False. His on ice SH% of 6 is incredibly low and disguises the 52% HDCF% that the Sabres enjoyed while O'Reilly was on the ice. The Sabres had the puck with O'Reilly on the ice, but they didn't bury chances.


O'Reilly saw less EV time than Kane last season, barely more than Eichel, and his 20:49 all situations per night is hardly notable.


Again with the unnecessary exaggeration. 20:49 ATOI, and his 15:39 EVTOI was behind Evander Kane, and just barely ahead of Jack Eichel.

We talked about Exaggeration. 1.6 P/60 rates him in the top half of regular NHL forwards. Similar numbers to TJ Oshie, Boone Jenner, Wayne Simmonds, Henrik Zetterberg, Conor Sheary, Brock Nelson, Joe Thornton and....Sam Reinhart. And his 34 EV points were 2nd on the Sabres.

Again with the exaggeration, if you assume an even distribution among teams of even strength scoring, Ryan O'Reilly scored at a rate squarely in the 2nd quartile, which puts his production at 2nd line scoring. If you acknowledge that scoring is not even distributed, and that the Sabres were the worst even strength scoring team in the league, than O'Reilly's 1.6 is pretty good. Oh yeah, his 34 EV pts trailed only Jack Eichel on the team.

Again with the exaggeration. He played high, not outrageous minutes last year.

Also he's an expert at shot suppression

An INCREDIBLY important stat for someone who plays so much and so well in the D Zone.
There is a stat that approximates puck luck. It's called PDO. Ryan had atrocious puck luck last year. 96.8 is among the worst in the league.
Stimson? I promise you he never said anything of the sort. Real stats people universally love Ryan O'Reilly.

So your issue is just with Jame, who as far as I know, is the only one throwing around Bergeron's name. When O'Reilly played with the caliber of teammates that Bergeron does, in Colorado, his P/60 at EV was 2.0, Bergeron is about 2.3 for his career.

Overall, to paint a picture the O'Reilly is slightly overrated, and that he doesn't generate enough goals consistently over the years at even strength to justify the 1st line center talk would be reasonable and compelling, but you've swung way out on a branch of exaggeration, and nobody who disagrees with you is going to take a single word of yours seriously while you continue to do so.
Great analysis comparing ROR to other 2nd line centers..Oh wait, you never did.

You did show us how much greater he scored compared to our trash teammates though! I thought I covered that originally, but you kept going back to it.

I'm glad he had a slightly above average ES production compared to the entire league.. way to set the bar low. He's in good company with Reinhart there.

But you only get that when you factor in all the assists. Goals? Hah. single digit. Yeah his PDO is low- even with Lehner, and maybe that's because he's never in position to take decent shots. We know he's not.. because he plays so conservative cheating his way out of the offensive zone because he's so slow, he's never there in the slot when it's his turn on the cycle. Over and over again, he erred to the side of Bylsma's 'safe play' and took that to heart.

You say 1/3 Reinhart, but don't consider his extra shift minutes that's always going to inflate those stats. Really disingenuous.


Trust me, I don't harp on Kane's higher ES time because I am beyond thrilled that waste of air is gone. He was even worse of an offender than ROR. I'm looking past that.
 

Lloydchristmas138

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Except the O’Reilly trade did not result in a net-addition of NHL caliber bodies.
How so? Are you just insinuating that Sobotka and Thompson aren't NHL caliber? Sobotka's 31 points would have been 7th on the team. Thompson may start in the AHL, but does have 41 games of experience and looks the part of a future NHLer.. Then of course the 1st and 2nd rounders very well could become NHL caliber.
 

GellMann

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How so? Are you just insinuating that Sobotka and Thompson aren't NHL caliber? Sobotka's 31 points would have been 7th on the team. Thompson may start in the AHL, but does have 41 games of experience and looks the part of a future NHLer.. Then of course the 1st and 2nd rounders very well could become NHL caliber.
It is a universally held Blues fan opinion that he was rushed last year and shouldn't have been in the NHL. While development might change that fact for October, I'd be more comfortable boldly stating he's not ready than boldly stating he is.

And Sobotka had points...so did Pominville. That doesn't mean he has the depth effect that Berglund will. I'm in the midst of gathering tape of both of these guys, and Sobotka's doesn't make me particularly excited to see him wear our logo.
 

DJN21

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It is a universally held Blues fan opinion that he was rushed last year and shouldn't have been in the NHL. While development might change that fact for October, I'd be more comfortable boldly stating he's not ready than boldly stating he is.

And Sobotka had points...so did Pominville. That doesn't mean he has the depth effect that Berglund will. I'm in the midst of gathering tape of both of these guys, and Sobotka's doesn't make me particularly excited to see him wear our logo.

I'd gladly take old sobotka only netting 15 or 20 points over 30 point sobotka who looks like a shell of his former self. There's no way he touches 30 on this roster.
 

Lloydchristmas138

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It is a universally held Blues fan opinion that he was rushed last year and shouldn't have been in the NHL. While development might change that fact for October, I'd be more comfortable boldly stating he's not ready than boldly stating he is.

And Sobotka had points...so did Pominville. That doesn't mean he has the depth effect that Berglund will. I'm in the midst of gathering tape of both of these guys, and Sobotka's doesn't make me particularly excited to see him wear our logo.
Yeah fair enough on Sobotka, he was the least valuable piece of the trade.. I don't expect much but he should be better than Larsson, Josefson, Girgensons, Nolan and Wilson I would freakin hope. He did somehow average over 17 minutes a game with the Blues last year.. And I feel like all of Pominville's points were in the beginning of the year too, then he was just awful. Didn't catch much of the Blues last year but I have more hope for Sobotka bringing something to the lineup than Pominville. Be interested in hearing your take on him after watching him.
 

struckbyaparkedcar

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How so? Are you just insinuating that Sobotka and Thompson aren't NHL caliber? Sobotka's 31 points would have been 7th on the team. Thompson may start in the AHL, but does have 41 games of experience and looks the part of a future NHLer.. Then of course the 1st and 2nd rounders very well could become NHL caliber.
Better players than Sobotka will be available through PTO and waiver season, at better contracts. I expect Thompson to start the year in the AHL. Maybe the pick can play sheltered minutes in 2 years.

The idea that this trade improved NHL level depth just doesn’t hold water.
 
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CatsforReinhart

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Better players than Sobotka will be available through PTO and waiver season, at better contracts. I expect Thompson to start the year in the AHL. Maybe the pick can play sheltered minutes in 2 years.

The idea that this trade improved NHL level depth just doesn’t hold water.
So in your scenario do you throw Berglund in the garbage? The first round pick is also in the trash? Because there is no new shiny new toy it upsets you.
 
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Snippit

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How so? Are you just insinuating that Sobotka and Thompson aren't NHL caliber? Sobotka's 31 points would have been 7th on the team. Thompson may start in the AHL, but does have 41 games of experience and looks the part of a future NHLer.. Then of course the 1st and 2nd rounders very well could become NHL caliber.

Pominville had 34 points and I don't want him in our top 12
 

struckbyaparkedcar

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So in your scenario do you throw Berglund in the garbage? The first round pick is also in the trash? Because there is no new shiny new toy it upsets you.
The only two assets from the deal that will plug in for last season’s putrid depth are Berglund and Sobotka. Berglund replaces O’Reilly, and I don’t think Sobotka is an NHL player.

As a result, I don’t buy this deal as the massive upgrade on last season’s depth some have tried to sell it as.
 

valet

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The only two assets from the deal that will plug in for last season’s putrid depth are Berglund and Sobotka. Berglund replaces O’Reilly, and I don’t think Sobotka is an NHL player.

As a result, I don’t buy this deal as the massive upgrade on last season’s depth some have tried to sell it as.
what a relief, I'm glad we can now completely remove the 1st, 2nd, and tage Thompson from the deal......

who's arguing that it's a 'massive upgrade'? I don't recall anyone lobbying that idea with so much vigor

and what intensive studying have you done on sobotka to proclaim he's not an nhl player? I'd be interested in hearing out your justification for that
 
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GellMann

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what a relief, I'm glad we can now completely remove the 1st, 2nd, and tage Thompson from the deal......

who's arguing that it's a 'massive upgrade'? I don't recall anyone lobbying that idea with so much vigor

and what intensive studying have you done on sobotka to proclaim he's not an nhl player? I'd be interested in hearing out your justification for that
You've been selectively reading struck's point.
 

struckbyaparkedcar

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what a relief, I'm glad we can now completely remove the 1st, 2nd, and tage Thompson from the deal......

who's arguing that it's a 'massive upgrade'? I don't recall anyone lobbying that idea with so much vigor
The trade improving NHL depth in the immediate future is and has been frequently cited as an argument in its favor. Think about how often "more ES goals than O'Reilly" has been thrown around.

Unfortunately, I have such a dim view of Sobotka (Berglund too, but I can at least talk myself into a role where he would provide some value) that the deal's impact on next season's roster is basically turning O'Reilly into Berglund.

and what intensive studying have you done on sobotka to proclaim he's not an nhl player? I'd be interested in hearing out your justification for that
Funny you should ask!

You asked for a breakdown on why Sobotka is washed so let's go into the numbers.

Role

In 17-18, Sobotka was a utility forward who served as the energy guy while others drove the play. With Stastny, he was used in two-way roles that shifted slightly towards offense, and was a more generic third line type with Jaskin. While his defensive zone usage is on the heavy side, Sobotka wasn't carrying the weight of a specialist.

Usage
13:55 - 5v5 TOI/Game
1:38 PPTOI/G
1:08 SHTOI/G
46% - ZSR
18.92 - OZS/60
22.06 - DZS/60


Teammates
8th - TOI
1st - CF%
1st - xG%

Competition
7th - TOI
7th - CF%
9th - xG%

Lines
Sobotka-Stastny-Steen
Sobotka-Stastny-Tarasenko
Sobotka-Thompson/Barbashev-Jaskin

Production & Impact

While Sobotka's individual production is uninspiring, you probably aren't targeting him to rack up points. That being said, he was deployed with a suite of effective forwards, so you'd like to see a little more in this department.

The real question with a player like Vlad though, is whether the things that make him a fan favorite actually translate to the ice. Sadly, they do not. Sobotka is a drag in virtually every underlying metric, and things don't get better trying to isolate his impact in one zone or another. There is a consistent trend of the team and linemates generating less and surrendering more with Sobotka on the ice, in both quality and quantity.

While I'll spare you the individual O/D splits, but once you weight for how his linemates defend away from him, Sobotka's drag on xGA notably stands out among regular Blues forwards.

Individual
1.18 - P/60
0.92 - P1/60
0.48 - G/60

On Ice
46.16% - xGF%
49.75% - CF%
47.48% - SCF%
42.86 - GF%

Relative & RelT
-.7.89 - xGFRel
-2.67 - CFRel
-5.54 - SCFRel
-9.68 - GFRel

-7.05 xGRelT
-2.69 CFRelT
-9.26 GFRelT

Verdict

Although Sobotka is clinging to a low-end third line role in terms of individual production, his inability to drive play in any capacity really makes him more of a flexible 10th forward at this stage of the game. He can play up the lineup in various capacities, but it will typically be due to a lack of options or outdated coaching tendencies than ability or impact.

For the Sabres, he only makes sense as a fourth line identity piece to cap off an eventful overhaul of the forward group. Sobotka does nothing to make Eichel, O'Reilly, Mittelstadt, or hypotherical checking center acquisition's lives easier, and should not be viewed as an answer to any of the team's core problems. Hitting people is not a substitute for scoring or preventing goals, especially not for this team.
 

valet

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The trade improving NHL depth in the immediate future is and has been frequently cited as an argument in its favor. Think about how often "more ES goals than O'Reilly" has been thrown around.

Unfortunately, I have such a dim view of Sobotka (Berglund too, but I can at least talk myself into a role where he would provide some value) that the deal's impact on next season's roster is basically turning O'Reilly into Berglund.


Funny you should ask!
thanks for the breakdown, I appreciate it.

so what we have is sobotka is a 4th line role by these numbers. That's fine with me and I think it does add to our depth... unless our standards for 4th line players is that they actually be as good as 2nd or 3rd line players, which is kind of what I tend to see more often than not around here these days

all that aside, I still don't think that anyone is saying that this trade makes our depth formidible. The players brought in will help it in the short term. we also have to consider the possibility of mittelstadt replacing ror's offensive output. even if he disappoints with a 40 point year as our 2c he won't be very far off from ror. it's true that a lot of the plan revolves around Casey being good, let's say in the 50-60 point range. If he is, no problem... The loss of ror will be minimized. If he isn't, well, it won't

Either way we can't just assume that Berglund and sobotka we're brought here as anything else but depth pieces, so I think it's flawed logic to say that one of them is here to 'replace' ror when the reality is that they aren't. they are legitimately here for depth. Thus, yes,.our depth is better. Still not incredible, but more NHL and less ahl
 
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slip

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Slow AF vets like Pominville and Sobotka occupying the 4th line is exactly the scenario I wanted to avoid going into the season.
 

truthbluth

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Slow AF vets like Pominville and Sobotka occupying the 4th line is exactly the scenario I wanted to avoid going into the season.
Sobotka’s not good, but I don’t think he’s been particularly slow.
 

Dreakon13

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the deal's impact on next season's roster is basically turning O'Reilly into Berglund
I'll be honest, I truly believe folks on here completely forget about Thompson, the 1st and the 2nd (or downplay them)... and are valuing the trade primarily on Berglund and Sobotka because a. it fits the Botts is an idiot narrative and b. they may very well be the only players on our side of the move that are in the NHL next season (thankfully 2018-2019 isn't the last year the NHL or the Sabres exist).

The deal wasn't ROR for Berglund, Sobotka... and those other guys or picks or whatever.

The deal was ROR for Thompson, Berglund and a 1st... and a 2nd to take Sobotka off their hands.

Berglund can step in and try to fill ROR's void defensively, Thompson fits the age group with top 6 NHL upside and likely helps Rochester become a powerhouse next year (which is extremely valuable for all the new soon-to-be-Sabres down there including him), the 1st and 2nd are just valuable pieces for the future, and Sobotka serves as another seat filler to keep things stable in the farm (and is probably an improvement on the likes of Pominville, Pouliot, Josefson... even if marginal and still crappy in his own right).


EDIT: Pominville's points this season came from his stint playing with Jack, when he moved down the lineup his production went down with him. If Sobotka can even sorta match Pommers meager production mostly from his time in the top 6, from the bottom 6 (which I assume is where Sobotka spent his time in STL), he's an improvement.
 
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truthbluth

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Great analysis comparing ROR to other 2nd line centers..Oh wait, you never did.
#1 I did give you a list of players with comparable production, but I didn’t literally compare O’Reilly to 2nd line centers around the league.
#2 That isn’t at all Germaine to what we’re talking about here, so I’m not sure why you brought it up.
#3 This kind of snarky sarcastic remark is out of place and entirely unhelpful to the task of trying to convince anyone of anything.
You did show us how much greater he scored compared to our trash teammates though! I thought I covered that originally, but you kept going back to it.
You did not, and it’s certainly relevant in the context of your argument that the Sabres will be better off without O’Reilly.

I'm glad he had a slightly above average ES production compared to the entire league.. way to set the bar low. He's in good company with Reinhart there.
Again with the exaggeration. He’s ‘squarely in the 2nd quartile’, means his ES production, which was down for his career, and mitigated by poor puck luck (lowest of his career), was in the 65-70th percentile. More than ‘slightly above average.’ And I’m not setting the bar low, I’m countering your exaggeration, where you claimed that O’Reilly scored, “Nada.” Moving the goalposts on an argument may feel very satisfying, but you could also just simply concede the point.
But you only get that when you factor in all the assists. Goals? Hah. single digit.
O’reilly’s 9 ES goals were his lowest total since his rookie season, discounting the strike shortened season, which means, necessarily, that his single digit goals were an aberration. He’s a double digit ES goal scorer, on average.
Yeah his PDO is low- even with Lehner,
I’m unabale to parse this. Are you suggesting that Lehner should have helped his PDO? If so, I think it’s possible you might not accurately understand the stat.
and maybe that's because he's never in position to take decent shots. We know he's not.. because he plays so conservative cheating his way out of the offensive zone because he's so slow, he's never there in the slot when it's his turn on the cycle. Over and over again, he erred to the side of Bylsma's 'safe play' and took that to heart.
I don’t even know what to say. PDO regresses to the mean. That’s just a fact. One player’s tendency to play one way or the other doesn’t make the other 4 guys around take easier-to-save shots on every play. There is no statistical argument that PDO is stable across seasons.
You say 1/3 Reinhart, but don't consider his extra shift minutes that's always going to inflate those stats. Really disingenuous.
It’s not disengenuous. I promise I want to get at the truth and have no agenda, but my calculation was based on line combinations. He actually spent 43% of his ES time with Reinhart. Still much closer to 1/3 than the, “all season,” that you exaggerated.
Trust me, I don't harp on Kane's higher ES time because I am beyond thrilled that waste of air is gone. He was even worse of an offender than ROR. I'm looking past that.
You still are missing the point pretty badly. Maybe you could clarify the thesis of your argument.
Is O’Reilly:
A) Terrible
B) Nothing Special
C) Pretty good but still overrated

And will the Sabres:
A) Be much better simply because O’Reilly is off the team
B) Be no worse without O’Reilly since he wasn’t a difference maker
C) Be ok, because their additions should cover the gap left by O’Reilly, and the youth should add speed and skill that will ultimately make the team better

FYI, without digging up every single post you’ve made on the topic, and just based on what I know I’ve read, I would guess your answers are both A.

When you answer, you could try to make your point with facts and data, not exaggeration and insults. There may actually be a conversation to have.
 
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The Winter Soldier

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I like what Botterill has done this summer. He took a year to evaluate the situation. Now he is executing a plan. Whether it was a tank or not last season, he got Dahlin who Sabres fans have every right to be excited for. I think Eichel will benefit from moving out ROR. The page has clearly turned, the culture change is in full effect. I think the Sabres will be better this year. Eichel if he can stay healthy will have a career best year. I would not even be surprised if Alex Nylander surprises this season. I am going to keep an eye on the Sabres. Got some positive things going on here. Which is great for Sabres fans who are a great hockey city. You guys deserve it.
 
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Icicle

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#1 I did give you a list of players with comparable production, but I didn’t literally compare O’Reilly to 2nd line centers around the league.
#2 That isn’t at all Germaine to what we’re talking about here, so I’m not sure why you brought it up.
#3 This kind of snarky sarcastic remark is out of place and entirely unhelpful to the task of trying to convince anyone of anything.

You did not, and it’s certainly relevant in the context of your argument that the Sabres will be better off without O’Reilly.


Again with the exaggeration. He’s ‘squarely in the 2nd quartile’, means his ES production, which was down for his career, and mitigated by poor puck luck (lowest of his career), was in the 65-70th percentile. More than ‘slightly above average.’ And I’m not setting the bar low, I’m countering your exaggeration, where you claimed that O’Reilly scored, “Nada.” Moving the goalposts on an argument may feel very satisfying, but you could also just simply concede the point.

O’reilly’s 9 ES goals were his lowest total since his rookie season, discounting the strike shortened season, which means, necessarily, that his single digit goals were an aberration. He’s a double digit ES goal scorer, on average.
I’m unabale to parse this. Are you suggesting that Lehner should have helped his PDO? If so, I think it’s possible you might not accurately understand the stat.

I don’t even know what to say. PDO regresses to the mean. That’s just a fact. One player’s tendency to play one way or the other doesn’t make the other 4 guys around take easier-to-save shots on every play. There is no statistical argument that PDO is stable across seasons.

It’s not disengenuous. I promise I want to get at the truth and have no agenda, but my calculation was based on line combinations. He actually spent 43% of his ES time with Reinhart. Still much closer to 1/3 than the, “all season,” that you exaggerated.

You still are missing the point pretty badly. Maybe you could clarify the thesis of your argument.
Is O’Reilly:
A) Terrible
B) Nothing Special
C) Pretty good but still overrated

And will the Sabres:
A) Be much better simply because O’Reilly is off the team
B) Be no worse without O’Reilly since he wasn’t a difference maker
C) Be ok, because their additions should cover the gap left by O’Reilly, and the youth should add speed and skill that will ultimately make the team better

FYI, without digging up every single post you’ve made on the topic, and just based on what I know I’ve read, I would guess your answers are both A.

When you answer, you could try to make your point with facts and data, not exaggeration and insults. There may actually be a conversation to have.
Shoptalk the smug, end with a smug. I like the approach.

If you aren't going to compare ROR to other 2nd line centers, there's no reason to debate further. If you could read first paragraphs where thesis' usually reside..my claim was he's an outlier to his comparables. Go back to the GWAR data Aladynn posted and see how hilariously different he looks from all others in the top-30. Any cherry picking of singular points like his Shot% being low (despite the 'great' corsi) falls apart when you look at this. You can't just explain away all his mediocrity by low % chance. That's not how it works. Yes, shot% regresses to the mean year after year, but these analyses rarely normalize for the number of shots/TOI, and they persist throughout a year for a reason. You actually imply a 28yo has nowhere to go but up with his goal totals? Geez, I thought we were basing our-self in statistics here.

When I'm obviously talking about goals, you keep reverting back to points-- assists. You're not getting it. My reason why ROR is getting the bad 'luck' he showed, is because he always gave up his slot offensive duties to conservatively get back on defense, which undermined his chances greatly throughout the season. Less chances than he should have had- and he obviously has less goals. He still got assists because his shoot-first crappy linemates could at least remember how hockey games are won. But he was lifeless out there and way in over his head. This conservative, headcase play caused way too much unnecessary loss of puck possession, which yes, he was good at regaining it in the neutral zone, but it's a laborious, low chance way to play that sucks the soul out of a lot of players trying to deal with. It's as uncreative as it gets and that takes a toll.

But yeah, talk smack to me about how Lehner's league average save percentage somehow is to blame for ROR's low PDO.
 
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