Jake Virtanen Part IX: Cheerful...WANTS TO MURDER YOU

[Huggy]

Virtanen also only played 5 min a night.

He definitely needs 20 games to see if he can keep up and have 5 or 6 points

 

[LeftCoast]

I'm going out for Halloween as Jake Virtanen

I'm going out as Sven Baertschi the invisible man.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Hasn't Jake's ice time been bumped up to around 11 min the past three games or so? If I'm right on that it's not terribly unreasonable ice time..

 

[LeftCoast]

Hasn't Jake's ice time been bumped up to around 11 min the past three games or so? If I'm right on that it's not terribly unreasonable ice time..

He got 15min in the MTL game, 14 vs DAL and 10:30 vs Az after 7 and 5 in the previous games. Surprise, surprise, he also got both of his points in the last 3 games.

 

[Shareefruck]

Craig Button or not, I still think he looks like he has lower hockey IQ (especially compared to McCann and Gaunce).

The physicality is useful on its own, but personally, I would send him down.

Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Higgins - Sutter - Burrows
Gaunce/Kenins - Horvat - Hansen
Prust - McCann - Dorsett

At some point, Kenins has to make his way back onto the team, IMO-- I'd rather he be the one playing the Virtanen role, provided that he can get back to where he was last year.

And don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic about Virtanen-- his physical abilities/offensive tools/intensity alone IS enough that he can become something-- but the whole idea that his lack of hockey IQ is fabricated is wrong, IMO-- that it's currently at this stage in his development his biggest limitation is apparent (that said, if it wasn't, he would flat out be a stud prospect).

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Kenins? He's got a lot of work to do in the AHL right now to get back to the NHL imo. Guy isn't close right now, imo.

 

[Shareefruck]

Kenins? He's got a lot of work to do in the AHL right now to get back to the NHL imo. Guy isn't close right now, imo.

That's why I said eventually.

 

[Ainec]

not ready

send him down pls

 

[hockeywoot]

Keep McCann, send Jake down. It shouldn't be seen as a disappointment, I didn't expect him to make the team other than Benning telegraphing it earlier last year.

He hasn't been bad, but hasn't been great either. I wish WD didn't just wait til the last few games to give him some minutes.

He's physically ready, and is able to contribute but in a limited capacity. He doesn't think the game at nhl level. That's not a knock, most 19 year olds don't either. He doesn't have the refined, mature game that McCann or Gaunce have. Kenins if he returns to form, would essentially provide the same contribution Jake is right now.

 

[Disappointed EP40]

I like that he hits. I really do. But when regarding the 6th overall pick, there isn't a thing in existence I care less about than whether or not that pick hits and plays "heavy".

The guy has very low IQ, and no natural offensive instincts to speak of. The only reason he did good in juniors was because of his physical abilities. His size, speed, and strength. Those can get you by in junior, hell, even get you to the top of the 1st round (*cough* Torres *cough*), but it doesn't suffice in the NHL. You need a head on your shoulders or you'll never succeed in the big leagues.

But yeah. He hits. Whatever. At least we got McCann, so that draft wasn't a complete waste.

This. Basic scouting, advanced stats... basically everything pointed to Ehlers.

 

[brokenhole]

Kenins? He's got a lot of work to do in the AHL right now to get back to the NHL imo. Guy isn't close right now, imo.

Well he is injured right now so you are correct.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

Virtanen is physically ready to go and looks pretty good in limited minutes. I say keep him up and look to trade one of the aging vets.

Loving the youth on This team.

 

[CanaFan]

This. Basic scouting, advanced stats... basically everything pointed to Ehlers.

I'm always curious when people say "advanced stats" wrt junior players. The only site I know for CHL adv stats is CHLstats.com (there used to be a similar site around the 2014 draft that used the same stats) and all the data shown is either 'basic' stats or uses ice time estimates (etoi, p/60) which generally have been more favourable to Virtanen than the basic stats.

So I'm curious which 'advanced' stats pointed so strongly to Ehlers, because I've looked (a lot) and not come across any such thing for CHL (i.e. no Corsi, Qualcomp, etc). Feel free to pass along the link if you have one.

 

[Huggy]

If we send virtanen back we'll draft. Chychurn so idc

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Craig Button or not, I still think he looks like he has lower hockey IQ (especially compared to McCann and Gaunce).

The physicality is useful on its own, but personally, I would send him down.

Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata
Higgins - Sutter - Burrows
Gaunce/Kenins - Horvat - Hansen
Prust - McCann - Dorsett

At some point, Kenins has to make his way back onto the team, IMO-- I'd rather he be the one playing the Virtanen role, provided that he can get back to where he was last year.

And don't get me wrong, I'm optimistic about Virtanen-- his physical abilities/offensive tools/intensity alone IS enough that he can become something-- but the whole idea that his lack of hockey IQ is fabricated is wrong, IMO-- that it's currently at this stage in his development his biggest limitation is apparent (that said, if it wasn't, he would flat out be a stud prospect).

i feel like virtanen's most likely upside, if he doesn't turn out to be a role player a la raffi torres, or a bust, is an evander kane-type guy who doesn't make anybody better but piles up ES points on a 2b line.

the beauty of that kind of player is you can play him with anybody and it's not going to change his production. so you don't have to waste vrbata or mccann or the sedins on him; you let them score on their own lines. you can give him gaunce and dorsett and he's good.

the drawback is because he doesn't make anybody better, his ceiling is his ceiling. 25-35 goals depending on what he does on the PP. the difference between evander kane and max pac, for instance. or pre-mike richards david booth, to name another guy.

but how to get virtanen to that realistic ceiling? i really don't think sending him back down to the W is going to help him. i think he needs to gain confidence at this level, feel his way through what he can do/what he can't yet, learn the rhythm of the league. i think a more creative, hockey-sense-type prospect you send back down to help him rediscover his ability to slow down the game and incubate his take-over ability. again, both the beauty of virtanen and his greatest drawback that this isn't necessary for him.

 

[damack]

I'd like to see Virtanen stay up and further develop his game against men. To take his physical game further he needs to play against the big boys, mowing kids down in junior will do nothing for him. Some time with Prust and Dorsett will do him some good too, the way he plays he's going to have to answer the bell now and again. I'd rather see him be an honest tough player than another Matt Cooke/Darcy Turner that runs around and lets others fight his battles.

Lately he seems to "freelance" too much in the defensive zone, chasing the play instead of keeping his positioning. Then having to chase back when the point man gets the pass. That will drive any coach nuts.

 

[Hodgy]

This low hockey IQ thing came from Craig Button, whose opinions are designed to stir the pot in order to sell a product.

It doesn't come from Craig Button, it comes from Virtanen's play. Anyone who watched him with any regularity in junior could have told you that his biggest weakness is his "hockey IQ" and the way he reads the ice. This continues to be clear in the NHL (although to his credit, he is playing with such reservation that he has cut down drastically the amount of errant passes).

Whenever I read posters outright rejecting that there is any issue with respect to his hockey IQ I can't help but think of this....

 

[Tiranis]

I'm always curious when people say "advanced stats" wrt junior players. The only site I know for CHL adv stats is CHLstats.com (there used to be a similar site around the 2014 draft that used the same stats) and all the data shown is either 'basic' stats or uses ice time estimates (etoi, p/60) which generally have been more favourable to Virtanen than the basic stats.

So I'm curious which 'advanced' stats pointed so strongly to Ehlers, because I've looked (a lot) and not come across any such thing for CHL (i.e. no Corsi, Qualcomp, etc). Feel free to pass along the link if you have one.

People are usually talking about statistical projections for those players based on regular stats and shot rates where available. There's a lot of work you can do with that alone that NHL teams seem to foolishly ignore.

 

[Shareefruck]

i feel like virtanen's most likely upside, if he doesn't turn out to be a role player a la raffi torres, or a bust, is an evander kane-type guy who doesn't make anybody better but piles up ES points on a 2b line.

the beauty of that kind of player is you can play him with anybody and it's not going to change his production. so you don't have to waste vrbata or mccann or the sedins on him; you let them score on their own lines. you can give him gaunce and dorsett and he's good.

the drawback is because he doesn't make anybody better, his ceiling is his ceiling. 25-35 goals depending on what he does on the PP. the difference between evander kane and max pac, for instance. or pre-mike richards david booth, to name another guy.

but how to get virtanen to that realistic ceiling? i really don't think sending him back down to the W is going to help him. i think he needs to gain confidence at this level, feel his way through what he can do/what he can't yet, learn the rhythm of the league. i think a more creative, hockey-sense-type prospect you send back down to help him rediscover his ability to slow down the game and incubate his take-over ability. again, both the beauty of virtanen and his greatest drawback that this isn't necessary for him.

Yeah, I can see this being true-- but on merit I don't think he deserves to stay on the team or make the team over others, based on what he's shown so far.

It doesn't come from Craig Button, it comes from Virtanen's play. Anyone who watched him with any regularity in junior could have told you that his biggest weakness is his "hockey IQ" and the way he reads the ice. This continues to be clear in the NHL (although to his credit, he is playing with such reservation that he has cut down drastically the amount of errant passes).

Whenever I read posters outright rejecting that there is any issue with respect to his hockey IQ I can't help but think of this....

100% this.

 

[Tiranis]

i feel like virtanen's most likely upside, if he doesn't turn out to be a role player a la raffi torres, or a bust, is an evander kane-type guy who doesn't make anybody better but piles up ES points on a 2b line.

Probably fair as a maximum upside but currently that's still a stretch. Kane was so much better in junior.

They really need to let Virtanen go back and develop his offensive game. Hell, I would even keep him in the AHL for a year or two. I don't care how it looks. He needs to work on his offensive game a ton.

 

[CanaFan]

People are usually talking about statistical projections for those players based on regular stats and shot rates where available. There's a lot of work you can do with that alone that NHL teams seem to foolishly ignore.

I've looked for player shot rates in the past but not every WHL building tracks it. For example the Hitmen do but only 2-3 other WHL teams do (I did a search through all Jake's game sheets last season). This leaves a big hole in establishing norms and relative performance. Now I think the Q does a better job of this so you could probably do a limited comparison between Jake (at home) and Ehlers, but it's got a ways to go. Not to mention the time and effort involved to compile the data from game sheets (for the W at least).

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Probably fair as a maximum upside but currently that's still a stretch. Kane was so much better in junior.

They really need to let Virtanen go back and develop his offensive game. Hell, I would even keep him in the AHL for a year or two. I don't care how it looks. He needs to work on his offensive game a ton.

yeah, i was talking about ceiling/maximum upside. i guess: realistic ceiling, so not accounting for the off chance he magically develops elite hockey sense, which has happened for a few guys but obviously is extremely rare.

and agreed on the AHL. but i think we all would send him to the AHL to play against men if that were possible. sadly, it isn't. given the choice between WHL and NHL, i'd keep him in the NHL, even if he doesn't necessarily deserve that roster spot over a healthy kenins or even gaunce. you have to put top prospects in a position to develop, even at the expense of icing the best possible pro roster.

 

[banme*]

People are usually talking about statistical projections for those players based on regular stats and shot rates where available. There's a lot of work you can do with that alone that NHL teams seem to foolishly ignore.

[citation needed]

 

[EpochLink]

Virtanen made the team

 

[thepuckmonster]

Congrats Virty!