Jagr vs Crosby, who "was" more talented?
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K Fleur
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But conversely wouldn't you expect that same player to display such dominance on the powerplay? Powerplay points being easier to accumulate than even strength points is rather irrelevant since they all count the same(whether or not that is the way it should be is an entirely different matter).
Sorry I just find it hard to fault a player for "beating up on teams when they're shorthanded" when that's exactly what star players are supposed to do.
For the umpteenth time, regardless of how much Jagr scored on the PP, which BTW, was more than his rivals (see post #512), he would score less PP points today. The top forwards from 98-04 averaged more PP time than the top forwards from 07-14.
You are just throwing crap against the wall now to see what will stick.
Btw, guess who is the most productive ES scorer over the last three years at a 65% to 35% ratio?
Too bad Crosby doesn't get played in an exclusively offensive role like Jagr was. I guess that's what you get when you try to be a good all around player.
Rhiessan71
Just a Fool
Bingo!
It was most definitely this conclusion by Daver that started this whole donnybrook.
At the end of the day, here's the reality...
Jagr averaged just a hair under an ES point per game in his prime and was among the league leaders in PP points.
A prime Jagr by 2014/2015 ice-times and PP opportunities is looking at about 75 ES points and 35-45 PP points.
By 2006/2007 standards, he's looking at 80 ES points and 50-60 PP points.
There are two very good examples to show this.
1) No one is going to confuse a 05/06 Jagr with a 98/99 Jagr and that non-prime 05/06 Jagr garners 123 points in a high PP opp year.
2) One is going to confuse A 42 year old Jagr with the 98/99 Jagr even less so and that 42 year old Jagr just last year garnered 50 ES points. That's just below what Sid has averaged over his full seasons (62) and is about what Sid will end up with this season.
3) Not really proof but just something I firmly believe...a Prime Jagr playing a full season does NOT lose the Art Ross to either of Sedin or OV.
Oh and for the love of god I wish people would stop exaggerating Crosby's defensive game. He's a solid2-way player most of the time but that's where it ends. He still plays on the offensive side of the puck more often than not and when comparing him to a prime Jagr, Jagr's ridiculous possession games makes up a ton of ground.
TheDevilMadeMe
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There may or may not be merit to this. I know that circa 2009-10, Crosby saw a lot of defensive zone starts, while Malkin got the lion's share of the offensive zone starts. (It was the main argument for Crosby for the 2009-10 Hart over Sedin and Ovechkin, which is why that year in particular sticks in mind).
It would be interesting to look at Crosby's offensive zone starts season-by-season and compare them to his even strength scoring numbers each year.
In Jagr's four year Art Ross run:
Forsberg averaged 68 games
Sakic 70
Selanne 72
Jagr 76
Jagr played the most games in 3 of 4 of those seasons and all three ofhis rivals had one PPGish season.
Jagr raw point leads certainly benefited from this and you cannot say his rivals were "on" the whole time.
When did a prime, full season Crosby lose to OV?
A prime 23 year old Jagr barely wins an Art Ross despite a lower PPG, a prime 23 year old Crosby barely loses an Art Ross but does win the Rocket.
Big deal.
It does not appear that a current full season Crosby is losing anytime soon does it?
Czech Your Math
I am lizard king
He was outscored by Ovi in '09, and was tied by Ovi in '10 (Ovi played fewer games).
'06- Ovi
'07- Crosby
'08- (Crosby injured)
'09- Ovi
'10- tied (Ovi better PPG)
then Ovi drops off a cliff scoring-wise
Going into the last two weeks of the season, it's uncertain whether he will outscore Jakub Voracek. Do you think that would be the case for a full season peak Jagr?
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Why not throw out the ridiculous would he get outscored by H Sedin in 11 as well argument?
All of that speculation would depend on conditions, both team and coaches and the NHL, ie does Jagr get groomed by Mario and Francis in this speculative scenario?
We know how both did in same age rookie seasons with Mario right?
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Killion
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You messed up on the quote function to CYM but none the less... are you seriously implying that Ovechkin is a better player "all round" than Jagr or even purely as a Sniper?. Or did I misread that because I sure hope I did Hv.
TheDevilMadeMe
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livewell68
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Since PPG (you keep bring up the per game basis) is so important to you, lets look at their numbers during Jagr's 4 consecutive Art Ross wins:
Jagr played 302 games, had 173 goals (average of 47 goals a season over 82 games), had 273 assists (74 assists a season over 82 games) and a total of 446 Pts for a PPG of 1.48 or an average of 121 Pts over 82 games.
Selanne played 288 games, had 158 goals (average of 45 goals over 82 games) had 179 assists (51 assists over 82 games) for a PPG of 1.17 or an average of 96 Pts over 82 games.
Peter Forsberg played 272 games, had 96 goals (average of 29 goals over 82 games), had 232 assists (70 assists a season over 82 games) and a total of 328 Pts for a PPG of 1.21 or an average of 99 Pts over 82 games.
Paul Karyia played 244 games, had 131 goals (average of 44 goals over 82 games), had 154 assists (average of 52 assists over 82 games) and a total of 285 Pts for a PPG of 1.17 or 96 Pts over 82 games.
Pavel Bure played 249 games, had 181 goals (average of 57 goals over 82 games) had 111 assists (average of 37 assists over 82 games) and a total of 292 Pts for a PPG of 1.17 or 96 Pts over 82 games.
Joe Sakic played 279 games, had 150 goals (average of 44 goals over 82 games) had 208 assists (average of 61 assists over 82 games) and a total of 358 Pts for a PPG of 1.28 or 105 Pts over 82 games.
Eric Lindros played 189 games, had 97 goals (average of 42 goals over 82 games), had 126 assists (average of 55 assists over 82 games) and a total of 223 Pts for a PPG of 1.18 or 97 Pts over 82 games.
Based on these numbers, Jagr had 0.20 PPG better than Sakic (gap of 16 points over 82 games), 0.26 PPG better than Forsberg (gap of 21 Pts over 82 games), had 0.30 PPG better than Selanne, Kariya and Bure (gap of 25 Pts over 82 games) and a 0.29 PPG better than Lindros (gap of 24 Pts over 82 games).
The raw numbers aren't close, the PPG isn't close and Jagr was not only the most consistent but also the healthiest.
daver, are you going to address these numbers?
Jagr basically averaged double digit wins in his Art Ross seasons (his smallest gap of 16 Pts over Sakic with Crosby winning his best Art Ross by 17 Pts).
Also another thing daver likes to throw around is the PP minutes a game Jagr got....
Jagr's PP minutes a game during his Art Ross seasons are:
1997-98: 5:22; 1998-99: 6:14; 1999-00: 5:50 and 2000-01: 5:43
His average PP minutes/ per game in those 4 seasons was 5:57
Sidney Crosby's PP minutes / per game in his 4 best seasons (2006-07, 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2013-14) were:
2006-07: 5.50, 2008-09: 5.22, 2009-10: 5.00 and 2013-14: 4.17
His average in those 4 seasons was 4.58 PP minutes/ per game. Tell me how Jagr only averaging 1 PP minute/ per game was going to make up that gap of scoring Jagr has over Crosby, rules of the game, obstruction, red line, trapping not withstanding?
Crosby BTW averaged 5.40 in 2005-06 while Jagr averaged 6.12 in 2005-06.
In 2007-08 Crosby averaged 5.12
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Killion
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TheDevilMadeMe
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I honestly can't conceive of how anyone could think that Jagr was in Ovechkin's class as a goal scorer or sniper. (Not taking overall player or overall offensive player)
livewell68
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Jagr gets vastly underrated as a sniper and people fail to realize what his numbers were as a sniper during his prime.
He averaged 52 goals a season (82 games) between 1994-95 and 2000-01, 7 seasons), that to me says that his sniping abilities (compared to Ovechkin) was / is pretty close. Ovechkin so far has averaged 51 goals over 82 games.
Jagr between 1994-95 and 1996-97 (3 year peak) had 141 goals in 193 games (he averaged 60 goals a season) so I think the numbers are a lot closer than some want to admit.
Ovechkin had a string of 3 consecutive seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) in which he had 171 goals in 233 games (he averaged 60 goals a season as well).
What's also being forgotten is that Jagr wasn't a volume shooter like Ovechkin was/ is and he didn't solely focus on goalscoring either as he was usually top 2-3 in both goals and assists in the same season on numerous occasions. In the 3 aforementioned seasons for Jagr (goals peak), he had 141 goals on 829 shots or a shooting % of 17. Ovechkin in his top 3 seasons had 171 goals on 1342 shots or a shooting % of 13. I say the numbers are very close.
It's funny how some are trying to argue that Crosby is close to Jagr's level when Jagr based on these per game numbers (per game being what daver wants to focus on) Jagr was a slightly better playmaker than Crosby (peak play) while he was a far superior goalscorer. Jagr was also up against peak Lemieux, Selanne, Bure and Bondra for the goalscoring lead. Ovechkin's closest competitors were Stamkos (who actually beat him) and Kovalchuk.
Jagr also averaged 76 games a season during his Art Ross wins (daver tried to move away from 1994-95 to 1996-97) and didn't miss more than 50% of his team's games during his peak. (Crosby anyone?
)
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livewell68
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Funny you mentioned this since Crosby is the only one that actually lived with Lemieux.
If you want to play what if scenarios, what if Jagr was not born in Europe during Communism and started his rookie season in 2005-06 on the Penguins and actually spoke proper English and had first line minutes?.....
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
Jagr gets vastly underrated as a sniper and people fail to realize what his numbers were as a sniper during his prime.
He averaged 52 goals a season (82 games) between 1994-95 and 2000-01 7 seasons), that to me says that his sniping abilities (compared to Ovechkin) was / is pretty close. Ovechkin so far has averaged 51 goals over 82 games.
Jagr between 1994-95 and 1996-97 (3 year peak) had 141 goals in 193 games (he averaged 60 goals a season) so I think the numbers are a lot closer than some want to admit.
Ovechkin had a string of 3 consecutive seasons (2007-08 to 2009-10) in which he had 171 goals in 233 games (he averaged 60 goals a season as well).
What's also being forgotten is that Jagr wasn't a volume shooter like Ovechkin was/ is and he didn't solely focus on goalscoring eithr as he was usually top 2-3 in both goals and assists in the same season on numerous occasions. In the 3 aforementioned seasons for Jagr (goals peak), he had 141 goals on 829 shots or a shooting % of 17. Ovechkin in his top 3 seasons had 171 goals on 1342 shots or a shooting % of 13. I say the numbers are very close.
It's funny how some are trying to argue that Crosby is close to Jagr's level when Jagr based on these per game numbers (per game being what daver wants to focus on) Jagr was a slightly better playmaker than Crosby (peak play) while he was a far superior goalscorer. Jagr was also up against peak Lemieux, Selanne, Bure and Bondra for the goalscoring lead. Ovechkin's closest competitors were Stamkos (who actually beat him) and Kovalchuk.
Jagr also averaged 76 games a season during his Art Ross wins (daver tried to move away from 1994-95 to 1996-97) and didn't miss more than 50% of his team's games during his peak. (Crosby anyone?
Are you even going to address the drop in leaguewide scoring during the course of the 1990s?
livewell68
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Also posters want to claim that Sedin beats Jagr in two of his Art Ross wins, lets look at adjusted points shall we?
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/j/jagrja01.html
First for Jagr:
1997-98: 117 Pts adjusted
1998-99: 145 Pts adjusted
1999-00: 105 Pts adjusted (without even adjusting to 82 games, just based on 63 games) and over 82 games that's adjusted to 137 Pts
2000-01: 131 Pts adjusted
Next for Crosby
2006-07: 122 Pts adjusted
2009-10: 117 Pts adjusted
2012-13: 106 Pts adjusted
2013-14: 116 Pts adjusted
Henrik Sedin
2009-10: 119 Pts
Ovechkin
2007-08: 122 Pts adjusted
2008-09: 114 Pts adjusted
2009-10: 117 Pts adjusted
Malkin
2007-08: 115 Pts adjusted
2008-09: 117 Pts adjusted
2011-12: 122 Pts adjusted
The only season in which it's even close is 1997-98 and that's assuming that the current star players don't get affected negatively by the red lines and the excessive obstruction.
A prime Jagr would not lose any Art Ross trophies to Henrik Sedin, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Daniel Sedin or St. Louis.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/j/jagrja01.html
First for Jagr:
1997-98: 117 Pts adjusted
1998-99: 145 Pts adjusted
1999-00: 105 Pts adjusted (without even adjusting to 82 games, just based on 63 games) and over 82 games that's adjusted to 137 Pts
2000-01: 131 Pts adjusted
Next for Crosby
2006-07: 122 Pts adjusted
2009-10: 117 Pts adjusted
2012-13: 106 Pts adjusted
2013-14: 116 Pts adjusted
Henrik Sedin
2009-10: 119 Pts
Ovechkin
2007-08: 122 Pts adjusted
2008-09: 114 Pts adjusted
2009-10: 117 Pts adjusted
Malkin
2007-08: 115 Pts adjusted
2008-09: 117 Pts adjusted
2011-12: 122 Pts adjusted
The only season in which it's even close is 1997-98 and that's assuming that the current star players don't get affected negatively by the red lines and the excessive obstruction.
A prime Jagr would not lose any Art Ross trophies to Henrik Sedin, Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Daniel Sedin or St. Louis.
livewell68
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I have in my PPG post when I compared the top 5 competitors to Jagr for Jagr's 4 Art Ross winning seasons(1997-98 to 2000-01) The numbers are evidence of Jagr's sustained goalscoring greatness; while scoring dropped considerably from 1998 onward, Jagr also remained a 47 (based on an 82 games schedule) goalscorer.
I also don't think that Ovechkin wins any Rocket Richard trophies over a prime Bure. He might have 2-3 tops playing during the 90's.
BTW, we've gone over the GPG (goals per game) numbers in other threads.
The 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97 seasons are not so different than 2005-06, 2006-07 or 2008-09.
Are you going to address the actual term of "sniper"? Based on the fact that Jagr shot less frequently than Ovechkin did (Ovechkin averaged well over 400 shots a game in his prime) while Jagr topped off at 403, I would say Jagr was actually a better sniper in the traditional term.
Hockey Outsider
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I haven't read through the whole thread, but has anybody calculated ES points per ES minute and PP points per PP minute for Jagr and Crosby (over best X years)?
If Jagr scores more per minute in both situations, that suggests that he'd be ahead of Crosby even if we assume that #87 receives more ice time.
If Crosby score more per minute in either or both situations, then the debate becomes more interesting.
It's true that nowadays forwards receive less ice time, particularly on the powerplay, compared to during Jagr's prime. (As of today, Ovechkin leads all forward with 3:56 in PP TOI per game- that would have ranked him 52nd in the NHL in 1998-98, Jagr's best year). If one were to "re-cast" Crosby's scoring totals (using his actual per-game scoring rates, but using ES and PP ice time figures that other top forwards would have received during Jagr's prime) it would show if he moves ahead of Jagr, pulls close, or is still solidly behind.
Has this analysis been done (we have complete ice time data back to 1997-98) or is the ice time discussion purely a hypothetical debate?
If Jagr scores more per minute in both situations, that suggests that he'd be ahead of Crosby even if we assume that #87 receives more ice time.
If Crosby score more per minute in either or both situations, then the debate becomes more interesting.
It's true that nowadays forwards receive less ice time, particularly on the powerplay, compared to during Jagr's prime. (As of today, Ovechkin leads all forward with 3:56 in PP TOI per game- that would have ranked him 52nd in the NHL in 1998-98, Jagr's best year). If one were to "re-cast" Crosby's scoring totals (using his actual per-game scoring rates, but using ES and PP ice time figures that other top forwards would have received during Jagr's prime) it would show if he moves ahead of Jagr, pulls close, or is still solidly behind.
Has this analysis been done (we have complete ice time data back to 1997-98) or is the ice time discussion purely a hypothetical debate?
TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
So even by adjusted points (which probably favor stars who played prior to the 2005 lockout over more recent stars by a little bit), Sedin's Art Ross season ranks higher than Jagr's 97-98 or 99-00? Thanks for doing the work, but I think you proved the opposite of the point you were trying to make. Sometimes a player just has an outlier amazing season and falls back to Earth. It happens.
Czech Your Math
I am lizard king
Ovechkin is one of the best goal scorers in history.
What I think is often overlooked about Jagr, whether talking about goal-scoring or passing/play-making, is that he was world class in both aspects. If he concentrated on one or the other, his numbers would likely have been substantially better in that category (Goals or Assists).
People like to claim that Player X (Thornton, Forsberg, Crosby, etc.) was a better passer or that Player Y (Bure, Selanne, Ovechkin, etc.) was a better goal-scorer, based on the numbers for that category. I think using purely numbers as the basis when comparing to dual threats like Howe, Gretzky, Lemieux, and Jagr is a bit misleading.
What I think is often overlooked about Jagr, whether talking about goal-scoring or passing/play-making, is that he was world class in both aspects. If he concentrated on one or the other, his numbers would likely have been substantially better in that category (Goals or Assists).
People like to claim that Player X (Thornton, Forsberg, Crosby, etc.) was a better passer or that Player Y (Bure, Selanne, Ovechkin, etc.) was a better goal-scorer, based on the numbers for that category. I think using purely numbers as the basis when comparing to dual threats like Howe, Gretzky, Lemieux, and Jagr is a bit misleading.
livewell68
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I do think Ovechkin is a great sniper but Jagr (all things considered) was/ is not so far behind Ovechkin as some would like to think.
In fact I would go as far as saying that based on goalscoring, Jagr was better than Selanne and Selanne had 3 Rockets to his name.
Jagr only has 62, 54 and 52 as career highs but also has 32 in 48 (pace of 55 goals), 47 in 63 (pace of 61 goals) and 42 in 63 games (pace of 55 goals).
Since it's come down to per game basis, on a per game basis, peak for peak, Jagr and Ovechkin are very close in terms of goalscoring.
Also based on your description of Ovechkin having the harder more accurate shot, wouldn't a player with a similar goals per game average who shoots far less make him a more accurate shooter by definition?
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