Jacob Trouba being 'Sheltered'?

[Thai jet*]

Shutdown minutes

RHD 5v5 time spent with centers:

Trouba:
Lowry 34.5%
Scheifele 25.2%
Little 23.1%
Copp 15.5%

Byfuglien:
Scheifele 33.5%
Little 27.2%
Lowry 24.2%
Copp 15.7%

Myers:
Little 35.1%
Lowry 26.1%
Scheifele 25.5%
Copp 13.0%

Not so much fourth line, but he still gets the worst one.
Myers - Little
Byfuglien - Scheifele
Trouba - Lowry

His pairing plays with the shutdown line against the top competiton. When you are in that role it naturally looks like a fire drill at times. When your coach trusts you in that role it means something as does being a +player. He is on against the other teams best but his team scores more when he is on the ice, meaningless? It seems smart on the coach's part to play your shutdown D, who play the toughest minutes, a little less than those in a more offensive role, 33\57. Burmi gets the same unfair treatment in the same type role on here and in the media. I want my shutdown guys taking care of D 1st and foremost. The O is a bonus.

 

[ps241]

Trouba's getting very difficult zone starts, 3rd highest QOC of the d-men, and he's beating those minutes with a 52% CF rating. He's not being sheltered, and his play has been fine, in my opinion.

Both from an eye test, and from the stats, IMHO.

100% agree

I guess the new car smell seems to be wearing off or something?

 

[buggs]

Looked good to me tonight. Actually looks really strong too and he's still what? 21? Pushing guys around with just one arm. Wait until he's 26, he'll be as strong as Buff (well maybe not quite).

 

[Ducky10]

Trouba had a very strong game tonight, despite the penalties, one earned, one not. Funny, it's not hard for most people to notice a good game by Trouba when his partner plays a decent game.

 

[Jeti]

100% agree

I guess the new car smell seems to be wearing off or something?

We're definitely seeing less aggressive play from Trouba. He's not jumping up in the neutral zone to pick off passes anymore, probably because those are risky plays. It's possible some of that is being coached out of him. Hopefully not too much, and hopefully it comes back a bit more when he's in a position to put up offensive numbers.

He had tough minutes as a rookie, but Bogo got some of the tough minutes too. Now with Myers there, it seems Trouba gets all the tough minutes of the RHD.

If I had a tinfoil hat ready, I'd say the Jets are just driving down his next contract.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

He had tough minutes as a rookie, but Bogo got some of the tough minutes too. Now with Myers there, it seems Trouba gets all the tough minutes of the RHD.

If I had a tinfoil hat ready, I'd say the Jets are just driving down his next contract.

That thought occurred to me too. More that he is being paired with Stu, though.
Is it that crazy?

<-- closest thing I could find to a tinfoil hat.

 

[10Ducky10]

Okay, tell me seriously....does anyone REALLY believe the Jets would deliberately stall Trouba's game so they can sign him for less? Really?


He's been less than stellar a few games this year and if he doesn't pick it up he will only get a bridge contract next. Yes, I know he played well tonight.

 

[Koonta]

Okay, tell me seriously....does anyone REALLY believe the Jets would deliberately stall Trouba's game so they can sign him for less? Really?


He's been less than stellar a few games this year and if he doesn't pick it up he will only get a bridge contract next. Yes, I know he played well tonight.

If they really are doing this to Trouba (not that I think they are) then they should start doing this to Scheifele (have him play with Thorburn and Peluso or something) because the way it is going with the ESP line looking the way it is, maybe Scheifele might be the one skipping the bridge deal altogether and garner the bigger contract of the two.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Okay, tell me seriously....does anyone REALLY believe the Jets would deliberately stall Trouba's game so they can sign him for less? Really?

No. Not quite. At least that's not what I'm suggesting.

First off, somebody's gotta play with Stu. Whoever we place there will have slightly worse stats than the other RHD. If that person happens to be the guy on the cusp of a possibly very expensive long term contract, all the better. It also makes some sense that it be Trouba, being the most "junior" RHD, at least in terms of experience.

Secondly, if in fact we are playing him against tougher competition (I haven't actually checked this), that's sorta the opposite of stalling his development. He's ready, and good enough to do it. It'll just make him look like slightly less of a rock star as he finds his game.

Neither of these could really be called "deliberately stalling his game/development", I don't think.

Like I said earlier, I'm not saying I really believe this. Just that the thought occurred to me.

 

[10Ducky10]

If they really are doing this to Trouba (not that I think they are) then they should start doing this to Scheifele (have him play with Thorburn and Peluso or something) because the way it is going with the ESP line looking the way it is, maybe Scheifele might be the one skipping the bridge deal altogether and garner the bigger contract of the two.

There should be a Like button...

 

[Huffer]

Looked good to me tonight. Actually looks really strong too and he's still what? 21? Pushing guys around with just one arm. Wait until he's 26, he'll be as strong as Buff (well maybe not quite).

I liked his game overall too (except for the penalties and a play where he coughed it up in the corner).

Trouba to me has always been likely stronger than his peers, but I'm wondering (asking the question because I don't know the answer), is he putting in the effort in the offseason to get bigger and stronger? And by that I mean the effort like Scheifele does?

Truthfully, there have been spots this year watching him where I wonder about his fitness level, and I'm not sure if he's any stronger now than two years ago. Whereas I think we can see Scheifele getting stronger every year.

Just me?

 

[garret9]

If you like +/- Goals for and against while on the ice is a much better stat IMO. Using that instead, I'm ok with. But +/- alone sucks honestly.

Fact.

Example:

Mark Stuart was actually the worst last season in all three of:
EV GF - EV GA
PK GF - PK GA
PP GF - PP GA

He however was about middle in:
EV GF + PK GF - EV GA - PP GA
^ which is +/- when you add in empty net situations...

+/- is a bad stat 100% and it's a fact.
Even ****ing Brian Burke for crying out loud knows that +/- is just dumb and meaningless.

1) Goals poorly predict goals unless dealing with multi-multi seasons.
2) An aggregate stat has no TOI sensitivity, with -3/+7 being the same as -233/+237, which is just stupid
3) Plus/Minus is just stupid in it's stupid, stupid inclusion of PK GF, PP GA, and empty net goals... it's just simply dumb in inclusion... either do 5v5, Even Strength, or All Minutes... not this weird selection.

 

[garret9]

Well I will and I can. You get other folks on here throwing around stats like gospel so I will do the same to prove this point.

There's difference between a statistic that is predictive of future performance and success versus one that is not.

You point out someone does well in a stat because you want to say "A is doing well here, so I think A is good, and A will have success".

If you have a stat where you say "A is doing well here, so I think the chance of A having success in the future is equally likely if he was not doing here" then the number you are using is useless.



Number power ranking:

xGF
Corsi



Goal Differential





(few times around the Earth)



+/-

 

[Flair Hay]

So with all this plus minus spam aside we can all agree he's not really being sheltered in any way but perhaps a couple mins of ice time less per game?

 

[garret9]

That is not an article, it is a blog. They are not reporters, they are fans with an opinion. Can't tell someone, on one hand, to ignore relevant stat information but citing an irrelevant source on the other.

LOL

1) What's the number of reporters hired to NHL teams over the last two years? What's the number of bloggers?

Bloggers:
Barnes (WSH)
Metacalf (TOR)
Pettapiece (TOR)
Charron (TOR)
Tulsky (CAR)
Fillipovic (can't say although I know which team)
Sznajder (I don't know which team)
Dellow (EDM)
Ventura (PIT)
Thomas (MIN)
MacDonald (FLA)
Pfeffer (MTL, formerly SJS and Hockey Canada)
Mehta (NJD)

This does not include all the bloggers who formerly worked for teams in a consulting manner, like Desjardins, Tango, and Zona.

This does not include the list of "bloggers" that work for other levels in hockey, like NCAA, AHL, ECHL, CIS, or CHL (like myself).

This does not include the list of "bloggers" that became real reporters or vice versa.

2) They are not just fans. They are real data analysts, mathematicians, engineers, data analysts and statisticians. People who know more about whether numbers are relevant or not more so than random coach Joe, who thinks one way because of his "experience".

3) Article: An article is a written work published in a print or electronic medium.
Blog work still is an article.

 

[garret9]

So with all this plus minus spam aside we can all agree he's not really being sheltered in any way but perhaps a couple mins of ice time less per game?

If anything, his job is harder, because he's with Stu.

What's more tough?

80% of your mins with Stu vs 80% with Enstrom

or

33% of your mins against the other teams top line versus 31%

 

[Channelcat]

I liked his game overall too (except for the penalties and a play where he coughed it up in the corner).

Trouba to me has always been likely stronger than his peers, but I'm wondering (asking the question because I don't know the answer), is he putting in the effort in the offseason to get bigger and stronger? And by that I mean the effort like Scheifele does?

Truthfully, there have been spots this year watching him where I wonder about his fitness level, and I'm not sure if he's any stronger now than two years ago. Whereas I think we can see Scheifele getting stronger every year.

Just me?

This is the thing that concerns me. Gary Roberts essentially said that Trouba was lazy in the gym, which is a bit of red flag for me.

 

[buggs]

Secondly, if in fact we are playing him against tougher competition (I haven't actually checked this), that's sorta the opposite of stalling his development. He's ready, and good enough to do it. It'll just make him look like slightly less of a rock star as he finds his game.

Neither of these could really be called "deliberately stalling his game/development", I don't think.

But all of this will suppress the most obvious statistical tools that an agent could bring to the table during negotiations. Partnered with Mr. Anchor, Trouba is shouldering a heavy load. That's great for his responsibility and as a role as the best defender. But it's the Karlsson's of the world that get big money and get noticed. Does anyone think that Hamilton would have got that money if he'd put up another 25 point season last year? Trouba isn't getting power play time, he's not used with the offensive lines all that much comparatively speaking. That's all going to suppress his counting stats and that does matter in the end. While I'm not certain that Trouba is Buff offensively (I suspect not), given a shift to a different partner, playing on more O-zone starts and getting PP time and I think you have a 40 point defenseman in Trouba. That's a different pay grade. Is it intentional on the part of the Jets? Probably not, but the net outcome will probably end up being the same.

With respect to how Trouba, Scheifele and Lowry's contracts are handled prior to next season, the values/term will be a reflection of this season as much as anything else. The Jets would clearly want to retain all three but at the moment the trend of play early in the season suggests to me that Trouba and Lowry will get bridge deals, Scheifele not so much. That's not to suggest the Jets don't think highly of the other two, rather that it's sound money management on the part of the Jets. I still think Trouba will get a very good salary, but ballpark it to $3.5-4/year rather than Hamilton money.

As to Huffer's comment on fitness, I don't know. I do know enough about sports and have been around long enough to know that all things being equal, hard work outperforms talent when talent won't work hard. There are always exceptions that disprove the rule but if Scheifele is beasting it with Roberts and Trouba isn't, I'll put my money on Scheifele having a more productive career.

 

[SensibleGuy]

lol...when you say "it's my opinion and I don't need to defend it!"...you lose. Seriously.

There is almost nothing worse that I hear regularly on the net than "everyone is entitled to an opinion." It's a lie. Everyone is entitled to an INFORMED opinion. An un-informed opinion is a meaningless opinion.

 

[Flair Hay]

If anything, his job is harder, because he's with Stu.

What's more tough?

80% of your mins with Stu vs 80% with Enstrom

or

33% of your mins against the other teams top line versus 31%

Agreed.

 

[RustyCat]

lol...when you say "it's my opinion and I don't need to defend it!"...you lose. Seriously.

There is almost nothing worse that I hear regularly on the net than "everyone is entitled to an opinion." It's a lie. Everyone is entitled to an INFORMED opinion. An un-informed opinion is a meaningless opinion.

Well I am not trying to win anything really. I could just honestly care a less what some people on here have to say. Some are well informed and I like reading what they have to say, others are arrogant and argue for the sake of arguing regardless of what is presented to them. Don't mistake my unwillingness to enter into that sort of banter as uninformed. But if that equals into a meaningless opinion in your or anyone else perspective then that is more your problem than it is mine.

 

[Ducky10]

LOL

1) What's the number of reporters hired to NHL teams over the last two years? What's the number of bloggers?

Bloggers:
Barnes (WSH)
Metacalf (TOR)
Pettapiece (TOR)
Charron (TOR)
Tulsky (CAR)
Fillipovic (can't say although I know which team)
Sznajder (I don't know which team)
Dellow (EDM)
Ventura (PIT)
Thomas (MIN)
MacDonald (FLA)
Pfeffer (MTL, formerly SJS and Hockey Canada)
Mehta (NJD)

This does not include all the bloggers who formerly worked for teams in a consulting manner, like Desjardins, Tango, and Zona.

This does not include the list of "bloggers" that work for other levels in hockey, like NCAA, AHL, ECHL, CIS, or CHL (like myself).

This does not include the list of "bloggers" that became real reporters or vice versa.

2) They are not just fans. They are real data analysts, mathematicians, engineers, data analysts and statisticians. People who know more about whether numbers are relevant or not more so than random coach Joe, who thinks one way because of his "experience".

3) Article: An article is a written work published in a print or electronic medium.
Blog work still is an article.

That's a curious comment, mainly accurate, but curious.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

But all of this will suppress the most obvious statistical tools that an agent could bring to the table during negotiations. Partnered with Mr. Anchor, Trouba is shouldering a heavy load. That's great for his responsibility and as a role as the best defender. But it's the Karlsson's of the world that get big money and get noticed. Does anyone think that Hamilton would have got that money if he'd put up another 25 point season last year? Trouba isn't getting power play time, he's not used with the offensive lines all that much comparatively speaking. That's all going to suppress his counting stats and that does matter in the end. While I'm not certain that Trouba is Buff offensively (I suspect not), given a shift to a different partner, playing on more O-zone starts and getting PP time and I think you have a 40 point defenseman in Trouba. That's a different pay grade. Is it intentional on the part of the Jets? Probably not, but the net outcome will probably end up being the same.

With respect to how Trouba, Scheifele and Lowry's contracts are handled prior to next season, the values/term will be a reflection of this season as much as anything else. The Jets would clearly want to retain all three but at the moment the trend of play early in the season suggests to me that Trouba and Lowry will get bridge deals, Scheifele not so much. That's not to suggest the Jets don't think highly of the other two, rather that it's sound money management on the part of the Jets. I still think Trouba will get a very good salary, but ballpark it to $3.5-4/year rather than Hamilton money.

Agreed, yup, yes, affirmative, correctimundo.
I give this comment a +/- of 47.3π^log(n)

Re: the bolded stuff -
Yeah, I doubt there was a TNSE memo that went around that said "TOP PRIORITY! SABOTAGE TROUBA FOR A CHEAP CONTRACT!" But there absolutely has been many discussions on how to deal with Troubs and Sheifele's contracts, both in terms of cap management, and bridge/long term deals. And as such, they would have discussed the possibilities of their performance this year. These predictions quite likely would have involved their line mates and deployment.

We're talking big dollars and cap hit here. Things that could tip the scale one way or another on keeping or losing a player like Buff. It's not totally insane to me to think all factors (like Trouba's deployment and pairing) were considered.

 

[Jaffray15]

Trouba isn't getting power play time, he's not used with the offensive lines all that much comparatively speaking. That's all going to suppress his counting stats and that does matter in the end. While I'm not certain that Trouba is Buff offensively (I suspect not), given a shift to a different partner, playing on more O-zone starts and getting PP time and I think you have a 40 point defenseman in Trouba.

THIS is what I mean by Sheltered. His offensive capability(We've seen it first hand) is not being used and mainly in a defensive role, as the expanded stats would prove.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

THIS is what I mean by Sheltered. His offensive capability(We've seen it first hand) is not being used and mainly in a defensive role, as the expanded stats would prove.

Hmm. When I think about "sheltered", traditionally that's meant that players get favorable zone deployments, or play against weaker competition. Maybe this is my disconnect with this thread: neither of those things is true for Trouba.