Prospect Info: Jacob Bryson (2017, 99th) signed 3 year ELC, ATO with Rochester

[Fezzy126]

Then it's hard for me to understand how this is considered, in recent months he looks great, and then what does this graph mean?
View attachment 527605

GAR is basically a statistical analysis related to WAR, which in it's simplest terms attempts to take every game situation into account (ES, PK, PP, penalties taken/drawn, etc) to come up with a single value to quantify a players impact for a team.

The xGF number that you posted only considers even strength, team-based shot metrics. They take those metrics and combine them with passing and rebound events, shot location, and shot type, and a few other stats to derive and "expected value".

The expected goals statistics are basically a small component of the overall GAR calculation.

 

[Fjordy]

GAR is basically a statistical analysis related to WAR, which in it's simplest terms attempts to take every game situation into account (ES, PK, PP, penalties taken/drawn, etc) to come up with a single value to quantify a players impact for a team.

The xGF number that you posted only considers even strength, team-based shot metrics. They take those metrics and combine them with passing and rebound events, shot location, and shot type, and a few other stats to derive and "expected value".

The expected goals statistics are basically a small component of the overall GAR calculation.

Then it is very strange that our best player has such charts, it is in no way comparable to what I see in the games.

 

[Jim Bob]

Then it is very strange that our best player has such charts, it is in no way comparable to what I see in the games.

You have suffering from recency bias. Those charts are for the entire season and take into account all the ugly minutes that Dahlin played earlier in the season, especially defensively.

I think you have wiped those awful visions from your memory.

 

[Fjordy]

You have suffering from recency bias. Those charts are for the entire season and take into account all the ugly minutes that Dahlin played earlier in the season, especially defensively.

I think you have wiped those awful visions from your memory.

That is, the last 2-3 months of his games are not taken into account? He had good games both at the beginning of the season and in the middle of the season, there were a lot of them, but after 2-3 months he plays very well almost every game.

 

[Jim Bob]

That is, the last 2-3 months of his games are not taken into account? He had good games both at the beginning of the season and in the middle of the season, there were a lot of them, but after 2-3 months he plays very well almost every game.

They are. It's just that there were so many bad minutes with rough defensive play for the recent stretch of really good play to overcome when it comes to these metrics.

He never missed major time when the roster was decimated with injuries and COVID. And that was a huge stretch of the season where he played a ton of minutes.

 

[Fezzy126]

That is, the last 2-3 months of his games are not taken into account? He had good games both at the beginning of the season and in the middle of the season, there were a lot of them, but after 2-3 months he plays very well almost every game.

I think what your eyes are seeing is a lot of puck possession, which is obviously good. But many of their goals are based on the shooting talent of guys like Tage and Olofsson, not sustained pressure with lots of high danger scoring chances.

The kids are only now just starting to figure out how to translate possession into scoring chances. So as a result their analytics still aren't always very good, even during this good streak of games. Also, GAR takes into account historical values, so it may take a little while for Dahlin's numbers to unf*** themselves...

 

[EichHart]

Bryson passes the eye test unlike most dman I've watched. The kid has an explosive first few steps, faster than anyone on the team. I want him part of this core.

 

[Jim Bob]

Bryson passes the eye test unlike most dman I've watched. The kid has an explosive first few steps, faster than anyone on the team. I want him part of this core.

When he shut down McDavid on that one rush using his skating...

Add in how good he has looked on his off side and I definitely see him sticking around for a while.

 

[Fjordy]

They are. It's just that there were so many bad minutes with rough defensive play for the recent stretch of really good play to overcome when it comes to these metrics.

He never missed major time when the roster was decimated with injuries and COVID. And that was a huge stretch of the season where he played a ton of minutes.

I think what your eyes are seeing is a lot of puck possession, which is obviously good. But many of their goals are based on the shooting talent of guys like Tage and Olofsson, not sustained pressure with lots of high danger scoring chances.

The kids are only now just starting to figure out how to translate possession into scoring chances. So as a result their analytics still aren't always very good, even during this good streak of games. Also, GAR takes into account historical values, so it may take a little while for Dahlin's numbers to unf*** themselves...

That's the problem with these metrics, they look biased, whether they take into account how many chances Dahlin created for teammates, how many good passes he gave, how he improved defensively in the second half of the season, breakouts and much more. Therefore, I like to look at all sorts of analytical tables of the guys from Twitter.

 

[elchud]

I like Bryson as a trade chip but one who has value. As in top-half-2ndround value.

I also like him as a long term 7D, as he can play both sides.

The smartest thing the Sabres could do this offseason is trade for Gudas and resign Pysyk. Bryson is RFA so 3 year deal (3 x 1.5 per would be ideal, but will probably be 2x1.5 or 3x2)

Sammy Dahlin
Bryson Joker
Power Gudas
Pysyk

Assuming Johnson is signed and spends the whole season in Rochester, you would bring him up the following season. Id resign Gudas for 2 additional seasons subsequent to the trade.

Then in 23/24

Sammy Dahlin
Power Gudas
Johnson Joker
Bryson
(hopefully Chesley in AHL)

After 23/24 you have a trade chip in one of Gudas/Johnson/Joker/Bryson.

 

[Jacob582]

Would a three year contract walk Bryson to UFA?

 

[Jim Bob]

Would a three year contract walk Bryson to UFA?

He would be 27yo and eligible for UFA when a 3 year deal expired as he is already 24yo and turns 25 in November.

 

[Chainshot]

Would a three year contract walk Bryson to UFA?

Yes.

 

[jc17]

When he shut down McDavid on that one rush using his skating...

Add in how good he has looked on his off side and I definitely see him sticking around for a while.

That was like the pinnacle, but the way he handles 1 on 1s vs big and fast players is so impressive.


I get that Johnson was a higher echelon pick, but I hope we don't move on from Bryson just because there's someone else in the pipeline. Bryson seems like such an efficient piece to have in the cap era.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Would a three year contract walk Bryson to UFA?

Yep. You're almost certainly looking at 2 years at around $2.5M AAV this offseason.

 

[elchud]

Yep. You're almost certainly looking at 2 years at around $2.5M AAV this offseason.

That's better than what Joker got (3 years 2.5). How is Bryson getting a better contract than Joker?

 

[Chainshot]

I can't see him getting over $2M AAV on this next deal.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

That's better than what Joker got (3 years 2.5). How is Bryson getting a better contract than Joker?

I think the agent can plausibly present evidence that Bryson was much better than Joker this year.

 

[Sabreality]

I can't see him getting over $2M AAV on this next deal.

yeah I think he'd sprint to sign 2y/$3m

 

[elchud]

I think the agent can plausibly present evidence that Bryson was much better than Joker this year.

Joker is at 22 minutes a game this season and Bryson is at 19. Next season, Joker 22 and Bryson 18.

Joker got paid like a top 4 defenseman and the Sabres do not view Bryson as a top 4 defenseman right now.

They got a steal deal with 2nd round pick Asplund. Joker had 1st round pick pedigree and 150 NHL games played.

Brysons agent will argue whatever he wants. My prediction is 2 years 1.175

 

[skipjack]

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Is the +/- fairly reflecting his defence? Worst in the team.

 

[Ralonzo]

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Is the +/- fairly reflecting his defence? Worst in the team.

Very much so. It still took a couple of bogeys from Olofson to allow Bryson to wear the green jacket this year, but it’s well-earned. His most effective defensive play is to run himself into the boards with the puck to delay the fore checker taking it away for maybe the half-second it takes to get through him and puts him a few steps farther from the net.

 

[Chainshot]

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Is the +/- fairly reflecting his defence? Worst in the team.

His +/- is reflective of his complete brainlock in the offensive zone. Lowest GF% on the team among all their defensemen, lowest PDO of any "regular". He'd pinch and it was going the other way. He gets the puck, there is almost never a shot that gets anywhere near the net. He never met a pass he didn't muff. He plays afraid of the puck passing it - dainty instead of passing with pace. He again provided absolutely no offensive play and with plus-minus, contributing few goals for means few pluses.

He's an adequate player in a depth role if only looking at the defensive side of the shop but the puck dies with him. If a player's one trick is just getting the puck over the blueline, they spend a lot of time having to do just that.

 

[Dingo44]

 

[WiHockeyGuy]

Keep Bryson up, send Power down.