Jack Hughes on pace to have worst rookie season by a 1st overall forward since Patrik Stefan in 1999

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Pitaya

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I 100% agree Jack has elite skills; that’s not in question. But he’s still physically a boy. He should be developing (both physically and his game) in a lesser (professional) league.
But why though?

Hes getting better workouts, nutrition, and training than he ever could imagine. And he only got really rocked a few times because his skating is that elite. Hell, this covid break is doing wonders for him and his brother Quinn said it himself

I get your point and agree with it for 99% of players coming out of the draft. Jack simply isnt one of them
 
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Rabid Ranger

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I dont think Jack's physical immaturity was as big a hinderence as some are making it out to be. He was one of the very best in the league this year lugging the puck and making things happen.
 
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Northern Avs Fan

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But why though?

Hes getting better workouts, nutrition, and training than he ever could imagine. And he only got really rocked a few times because his skating is that elite. Hell, this covid break is doing wonders for him and his brother Quinn said it himself

I get your point and agree with it for 99% of players coming out of the draft. Jack simply isnt one of them

I don’t think where Hughes spent this season will matter in the end. He’s so talented that I don’t expect his confidence to be shaken by a worse than expected rookie season. He’ll be fine.
 

Stephen

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Interesting that Quinn Hughes physical immaturity isn't even a factor but Jack is on pace to have a historically poor season for a first overall pick.

Still, early days in his career. If anything it means he'll bridge the gap naturally as he gains strength. Question is how much.
 

Fatass

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Interesting that Quinn Hughes physical immaturity isn't even a factor but Jack is on pace to have a historically poor season for a first overall pick.

Still, early days in his career. If anything it means he'll bridge the gap naturally as he gains strength. Question is how much.
Quinn is more than year and a half older than Jack, and played in the NCAA in his draft plus one year. Jack Hughes (even given his elite skills) was just physically too immature to compete against the men in the NHL.
 

Passchendaele

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Was Hughes any weaker than Patrick Kane in 2007?

I remember Kane being listed at 5'10" and 162 lbs in his rookie season.
 

Fatass

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Was Hughes any weaker than Patrick Kane in 2007?

I remember Kane being listed at 5'10" and 162 lbs in his rookie season.
Much different league now though. Much faster. Lots of big heavy men who can all skate great.
 

ijuka

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Jack’s skating is world class, his vision is world class, and his confidence and tenacity to grow and be better is world class.

Him in the NHL allowed him to get a head start on learning the defensive game, the speed and pace, the training regiments and other factors, etc etc...

The idea of going to the AHL/college/Euro pro leagues is more centered for guys who dont already possess multiple skills at an NHL level. Jack’s size isnt reason enough to hols him back from learning things at an NHL level that you cant possibly learn elsewhere. That is why nowadays 1st-3rd overall picks almost always make the big league by the end of the first season. Because they possess NHL talents and usually only differ in size, pace, and physicality.

Jack would have absolutely tore up and been the best player on any team he played for outside the NHL. What does that do for him in finding holes in his game and improving on what he doesnt excel at?
This attitude's so strange to me. Hughes had only played USNTDP hockey, where the toughest challenge would be some exhibition games against NCAA teams. He had zero pro experience and it's ridiculous to just assume he'd completely dominate any other league and that it wouldn't be useful for learning at all, this attitude was thrown around even before the draft and I just don't get where that's coming from. Somehow, players can go to even OHL for their third season and learn a ton of things, but a player playing in a pro league for the first time would "have nothing to learn". Yeah, right.

For an 18-year-old, it's not exactly important to "find holes in his game", it'd actually be important to first enhance these strengths. For example, if Jack Hughes's great at making things happen with the puck on his stick, it'd make perfect sense to have him play in an environment where he gets to have the puck on his stick a ton and to constantly make plays with it, while playing 20 minutes. That'd be far more helpful to him than having to endure a battle for survival every shift, where he frequently doesn't even get to the puck and doesn't get to even learn what kind of plays he could possibly be making because the pace's just way too high for him. He also won't be able to get away with a ton of plays, leading into mistakes that get punished extremely hard, which then leads to him losing confidence and perhaps misunderstanding why those plays didn't work in the first place. I'll also reiterate that it's ridiculous to assume that he's already mastered all the plays he could make with the puck, it's honestly some absurd logic.

In the worst case scenario, due to playing in NHL too early, Hughes will never have the repertoire with the puck that he could have had, and will be much more afraid of making impactful plays due to them getting punished so heavily. In the best case scenario... do we really think he'll actually end up being better than he'd have been if he'd played 20+ minutes a night with freedom to express himself last season, while getting used to the pro game? I can hardly agree with that.
 

FrolikFan67

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Not terribly surprising. I still expect him to be a fantastic player, but he was undersized and wasn’t the best finisher from what I could tell? I wasn’t expecting much right now at 18. itll take some time, im expecting he'll start coming into his own in year 4, give or take. add a little more weight, improve his shot a little, combined with his skating ability, he'll get there for sure, it'll just take longer for him than most 1st overall picks
 

Voight

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Was Hughes any weaker than Patrick Kane in 2007?

I remember Kane being listed at 5'10" and 162 lbs in his rookie season.

Much different league now though. Much faster. Lots of big heavy men who can all skate great.

Kane also has a late birthday, meaning he had 3 seasons of junior hockey before he was drafted. He played 2 years with the UNTDP then one with London.
 

Fatass

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6 goals 14 assists and minus 26 at the 61 game mark
Was this the worst (rookie) season for a First Overall?
Patrick Stefan was 5 and 20 and a minus 20 in 71 games.
Looks like Stefan had the worse rookie season.
 

yeaher

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But why though?

Hes getting better workouts, nutrition, and training than he ever could imagine. And he only got really rocked a few times because his skating is that elite. Hell, this covid break is doing wonders for him and his brother Quinn said it himself

I get your point and agree with it for 99% of players coming out of the draft. Jack simply isnt one of them

Injury risk is one big reason I could think of, but I feel it is negligible enough that he should have been in NHL this year.
 
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ninetyeight

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I'm personally not a believer that players develop better in the minor leagues, and there's no evidence to back it up, since it's impossible for the same player to go through both routes. I think the only reason to go to AHL or NCAA is that the player either wouldn't get enough ice time in the NHL or his skill level isn't high enough to play there (= better options in the lineup), which in this case is obviously not the case considering the weak Devils roster. NHL is a whole different ball game than any of the other leagues, so regardless where you play there would eventually be a learning curve / adjustment period (for the speed, rink size etc).

It might not look good in the stats sheets to see prospects struggle in the big league, but if you need to adjust to NHL the best way is to play in the NHL. People completely ignore the fact that prospects who play a year or two in the AHL first, are also year or two older when they finally enter NHL. Nobody can proof that they wouldn't have been as good or better had they went straight to NHL.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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For me, when people say the only reason he struggled was that he was weak, it's such a cop-out. There have been a long history of rookies who had significant questions about their size, including players like Marner, Pettersson, Keller, his brother Quinn, that put up big point totals in their rookie seasons.

The difference was that all these guys had the offensive tools to score points regardless. I think most expected that between his skating and his offensive skills that he would put up points, despite being very physically weak and struggling in other parts of the game.

I myself overestimated Hughes ability to score right away. I thought he'd win the Calder because I thought he was a lock for 50+ points. I thought his offensive ability was too good not to put up 50+ points, even if he struggled in other areas of the game. I think we all have to admit that he was worse than expected offensively in his rookie season. The team didn't help, but it's not all about the team. The team doesn't negate 20+ points from his point total. He wasn't good enough offensively.
 
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Pitaya

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For me, when people say the only reason he struggled was that he was weak, it's such a cop-out. There have been a long history of rookies who had significant questions about their size, including players like Marner, Pettersson, Keller, his brother Quinn, that put up big point totals in their rookie seasons.

The difference was that all these guys had the offensive tools to score points regardless. I think most expected that between his skating and his offensive skills that he would put up points, despite being very physically weak and struggling in other parts of the game.

I myself overestimated Hughes ability to score right away. I thought he'd win the Calder because I thought he was a lock for 50+ points. I thought his offensive ability was too good not to put up 50+ points, even if he struggled in other areas of the game. I think we all have to admit that he was worse than expected offensively in his rookie season. The team didn't help, but it's not all about the team. The team doesn't negate 20+ points from his point total. He wasn't good enough offensively.
He played on lines with guys like Wayne Simmonds and Miles Wood. He most certainly missed on a minimum of 10-12 points if not more

EbtVu7rUMAI3JlA


Jack will be just fine once the team around him gets better and he gets a real coach and system
 
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CantLoseWithMatthews

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He played on lines with guys like Wayne Simmonds and Miles Wood. He most certainly missed on a minimum of 10-12 points if not more

EbtVu7rUMAI3JlA


Jack will be just fine once the team around him gets better and he gets a real coach and system
hopefully McDavid can work hard and become a top 15 puck carrier one day, like Dryden Hunt
 

Pitaya

Prince of the Alps, Nico Hischier
Dec 14, 2019
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hopefully McDavid can work hard and become a top 15 puck carrier one day, like Dryden Hunt
Here we go - one big name isnt on the list and its no longer credible right?

Convenient you didnt list any of the other massive star names on there though

McDavid’s exits brought him down to the 87th percentile, its exits/entries per 60
 

Hattrickkane88

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He played on lines with guys like Wayne Simmonds and Miles Wood. He most certainly missed on a minimum of 10-12 points if not more

EbtVu7rUMAI3JlA


Jack will be just fine once the team around him gets better and he gets a real coach and system
As a Devils fan that watched every game Jack also gave Hall 5 breakaways in the first 3 games of the season and Hall missed Every single one of them so even when Jack did have a good teammate he was very unlucky, though i do believe Hall probably has a very low breakaway percentage for his skill level.

You have cool stats, are you able to find breakaway percentages?
 
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Pitaya

Prince of the Alps, Nico Hischier
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As a Devils fan that watched every game Jack also gave Hall 5 breakaways in the first 3 games of the season and Hall missed Every single one of them so even when Jack did have a good teammate he was very unlucky, though i do believe Hall probably has a very low breakaway percentage for his skill level.

You have cool stats, are you able to find breakaway percentages?
Its not me with the stats i had just seen them posted on the Devils subforum

Though Im sure a quick google search or maybe even making a thread on HF about it could find something pretty quickly (if it exists)

And I remember almost each and every one of those breakaways, felt for Jack on every one lol
 
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