Player Discussion Jack Eichel Part 1

[haseoke39]

What is the average salary on a second contract for a player that had multiple 0.9 PPG seasons on their ELC for second contracts signed over the past 3 or 4 years?

I don't know, but maybe you could go figure out who those players are.

Although, for the sake of argument, if you're gonna do that analysis based on "at the time of signing" for other players, you have to consider that Jack did not have multiple 0.9 PPG seasons at the time of signing either.

 

[Icicle]

$10M isn't the going rate for a 0.95 PPG player. Thirty-five guys in the NHL scored 0.95 PPG last year (filtering for 50 games or more). Take the ten guys closest to Jack in terms of PPG last year, and their average salary next year is $6.02M.

0.95 PPG and the Selke? Sure. 0.95 PPG and three cups? Okay. And even so, just because Chicago paid that to Kane and Toews doesn't mean they were smart to do it. They were paying for the legacy of three cups, not really future production, and you can argue whether that fan service was worth it based on the trajectory of that team now. Their championship squads were actually very, very well-balanced financially.

You have to filter out players who signed within the last 3 years. Inflation in the league is huge.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't know, but maybe you could go figure out who those players are.

I think that list may have only two players on it:

Eichel and McDavid

None of Tarasenko, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Monahan, Barkov, Forsberg, Landeskog, and Kucherov was able to do it.

Laine and Marner have no shot and Matthews would have to hit that level this season to have two 0.9+ PPG seasons on his ELC. Barzal hit that level in his rookie year, so he can hit it doing that this year or next. And if he does, he will get PAID.

 

[haseoke39]

You have to filter out players who signed within the last 3 years. Inflation in the league is huge.

Okay, did it, and that didn't help. Counting only players whose deals started since 16-17 (two years, as the numbers just happened to work), I ended up taking out Tyler Seguin and Patrice Bergeron, added Josh Bailey and Mark Scheifele.

Now the ten closest players to Jack in PPG (over 50 GP) last season whose contracts started since 2016-17 average $5.87M.

I'm not trying to oversimplify the analysis. I'm just saying, claiming 0.95 PPG is worth $10M isn't true. You're gonna have to argue something else in favor of Jack. His two-way game, his leadership, his team impact, his team's success.

 

[haseoke39]

I think that list may have only two players on it:

Eichel and McDavid

None of Tarasenko, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Monahan, Barkov, Forsberg, Landeskog, and Kucherov was able to do it.

Laine and Marner have no shot and Matthews would have to hit that level this season to have two 0.9+ PPG seasons on his ELC. Barzal hit that level in his rookie year, so he can hit it doing that this year or next. And if he does, he will get PAID.

I think you missed my edit. Eichel also hadn't done it at the time of signing. So if you're knocking all those other players out based on that criteria, you should knock out Eichel, too.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think that list may have only two players on it:

Eichel and McDavid

None of Tarasenko, Draisaitl, Gaudreau, MacKinnon, Monahan, Barkov, Forsberg, Landeskog, and Kucherov was able to do it.

Laine and Marner have no shot and Matthews would have to hit that level this season to have two 0.9+ PPG seasons on his ELC. Barzal hit that level in his rookie year, so he can hit it doing that this year or next. And if he does, he will get PAID.

Of that list, not counting haseoke’s point regarding only 1 year at near ppg, does Eichel feel like he belongs in the McDavid category or everyone else listed?

I hope he comes in like a beast this year and earns that cap hit for the team.

But I have tried looking at it from the most reasonable positive angle and the best I can say is that Eichel got the absolute max end of what a deal should look like for him.

It should be perfectly fine a few years from now if he can be a 90 point guy with average defense. But that is a tough bar to maintain, especially considering he has never done that. And typically you don’t sign a deal early just to pay top market rate.

Maybe Layne is right and he was threatening to holdout for several years to force a trade to Boston.... to be honest if that’s true, shouldn’t people be super nervous about his character?

I can’t imagine that’s true, the Boston part, but that would make more sense for Botts going big this early.

 

[1972]

If Jack is healthy and the team improves I’m sensing a 35 goal 60 assist season. He’s basically averaged a PPG for 2 years now on a terrible team while missing significant time with serious injuries. A healthy Jack is a top 5 scorer next year.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think you missed my edit. Eichel also hadn't done it at the time of signing. So if you're knocking all those other players out based on that criteria, you should knock out Eichel, too.

I'm not talking about Eichel at the time he signed because we are talking about the value of his contract.

If you go with one 0.9+ PPG season in his first two seasons and then he signed his second contract, that list is still McDavid & Eichel (with Barzal there but not able to sign his extension yet and Matthew there and negotiating his contract).

 

[BananaSquad]

If Jack is healthy and the team improves I’m sensing a 35 goal 60 assist season. He’s basically averaged a PPG for 2 years now on a terrible team while missing significant time with serious injuries. A healthy Jack is a top 5 scorer next year.

And yet some on here won’t like that he’s producing like that because we’ll Jack just isn’t blue collar enough for their liking. #onlyinbuffalo

 

[haseoke39]

And yet some on here won’t like that he’s producing like that because we’ll Jack just isn’t blue collar enough for their liking. #onlyinbuffalo

I'm already shaking my fist at the sky, just thinking about it.

 

[1972]

And yet some on here won’t like that he’s producing like that because we’ll Jack just isn’t blue collar enough for their liking. #onlyinbuffalo

I can only imaging if Jack breaks out for 90 points and Sam is on his wing.

 

[BananaSquad]

I can only imaging if Jack breaks out for 90 points and Sam is on his wing.

Basically Sam would be the reason why duh.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

$10M isn't the going rate for a 0.95 PPG player. Thirty-five guys in the NHL scored 0.95 PPG last year (filtering for 50 games or more). Take the ten guys closest to Jack in terms of PPG last year, and their average salary next year is $6.02M.

0.95 PPG and the Selke? Sure. 0.95 PPG and three cups? Okay. And even so, just because Chicago paid that to Kane and Toews doesn't mean they were smart to do it. They were paying for the legacy of three cups, not really future production, and you can argue whether that fan service was worth it based on the trajectory of that team now. Their championship squads were actually very, very well-balanced financially.

You don't want the contract, 30 teams would gladly take it off your hands...

 

[sabrebuild]

Basically Sam would be the reason why duh.

So sad.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

You don't want the contract, 30 teams would gladly take it off your hands...

Bingo. There would be a very long lineup. Franchise 1C's are rare gems. They usually come at the expense of suffering through a season where your team struggles to win 20 games and now you also need some luck with lottery balls.

 

[tsujimoto74]

You don't want the contract, 30 teams would gladly take it off your hands...

Amen. Is it a sweetheart contract? Obviously no. But franchise centers are rare commodities, and it's pretty much impossible to win without at least one. Players like Eichel are exactly the ones you pay to keep around; it's the secondary pieces you need to hit on below-value deals.

 

[1972]

So sad.

I love both players and wish the best for both, it is sad others are incapable of doing the same.

 

[Dingo44]

This complaining about Jack's contract is seriously one of the dumbest constants on a board full of them. He signed it almost a year ago. Seriously - move on.

 

[Duddy]

True, move on from something that starts this season. Sounds pretty reasonable.

Ignore everything and just be a blind homer that loves everything about the franchise. Why bother with critical thinking?

 

[WeDislikeEich]

Of that list, not counting haseoke’s point regarding only 1 year at near ppg, does Eichel feel like he belongs in the McDavid category or everyone else listed?

I hope he comes in like a beast this year and earns that cap hit for the team.

But I have tried looking at it from the most reasonable positive angle and the best I can say is that Eichel got the absolute max end of what a deal should look like for him.

It should be perfectly fine a few years from now if he can be a 90 point guy with average defense. But that is a tough bar to maintain, especially considering he has never done that. And typically you don’t sign a deal early just to pay top market rate.

Maybe Layne is right and he was threatening to holdout for several years to force a trade to Boston.... to be honest if that’s true, shouldn’t people be super nervous about his character?

I can’t imagine that’s true, the Boston part, but that would make more sense for Botts going big this early.

Who is Layne? And what did he say?

I hadn’t heard this and am curious what you are talking about now.

Thanks.

 

[Dingo44]

True, move on from something that starts this season. Sounds pretty reasonable.

Ignore everything and just be a blind homer that loves everything about the franchise. Why bother with critical thinking?

What's left to say about it? What will change? Seriously - do you always keep worrying about things that are what they are? And seriously - it's market rate anyway.

By the way - he signed that contact LAST SEPTEMBER!

 

[Dingo44]

Maybe Layne is right and he was threatening to holdout for several years to force a trade to Boston.... to be honest if that’s true, shouldn’t people be super nervous about his character?

I can’t imagine that’s true, the Boston part, but that would make more sense for Botts going big this early.

Maybe Eichel likes puppy snuff videos. What would that say about his character? We have zero idea that it's true, but let's speculate about things that we have no proof ever happened and then judge the guy anyway.

 

[ZZamboni]

Maybe Eichel likes puppy snuff videos. What would that say about his character? We have zero idea that it's true, but let's speculate about things that we have no proof ever happened and then judge the guy anyway.

That happens allll to often on this forum. Like a crazy high rate. Some posters are really really good at it too.

 

[Aladyyn]

What's left to say about it? What will change? Seriously - do you always keep worrying about things that are what they are? And seriously - it's market rate anyway.

By the way - he signed that contact LAST SEPTEMBER!

It's not. And the contract comes into effect THIS SEASON!

 

[sabrebuild]

Maybe Eichel likes puppy snuff videos. What would that say about his character? We have zero idea that it's true, but let's speculate about things that we have no proof ever happened and then judge the guy anyway.

Agreed. That’s why I’m sarcastically making fun of la coda Nostradamus post regarding Boston being a cause of his salary negotiations. It’s absurd.