Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[Fezzy126]

 

[Husko]

The Mitchell slander coming out simultaneous to Vegas having him with the same over/under as BTJ is... interesting to say the least.

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Decisive win for Fautanu, who comes off the board with 60% of the vote. Going to start adding most folks who get votes, since we're approaching the end game. Guyotn, Morgan, and Kneeland all added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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Reminder to vote! I'm going Barton here. It was a close call between him and Chop for me, but I think Barton is the much safer player, even if he is probably at a less valuable position. Add Frazier, I'd like all of the big 3 Cs to make our board.

Here's an updated list of possible adds:

• Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
• Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
• Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
• Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)
• Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
• Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
• Jaden Hicks (S, Washington State)
• Kingsley Saumataia (OT, BYU)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

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New poll will be up later today.

 

[Jim Bob]

A two sport athlete at SUNY Cortland (Football & baseball) might be an interesting UDFA camp body...

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Willgamesh]

Hopefully Bill joins the Bills as a consultant to get back at Kraft ?

 

[Der Jaeger]

It is an overpay only if you don't devalue the future picks by one round. If you do that, Houston gave up only slightly more than the value of the pick.

It's an older way to look at the value, by devaluing a future pick by a round. I haven't seen a better way yet but also haven't looked hard.

The Mitchell slander coming out simultaneous to Vegas having him with the same over/under as BTJ is... interesting to say the least.

Slander is part of lying season.

 

[Zman5778]

Dane Brugler's 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Predicting all 257 picks

How will this year's NFL Draft play out? Here's one guess at every pick, across all seven rounds.

theathletic.com

I would hate giving up that much to go up 11 picks to get BTJ.



I like the class in general, especially Bishop, Baker, and Vidal.

I get it. But, giving up a couple of picks this year is fine....there's no way we can keep all of our current picks on our roster......and we've got a spare 2nd next year to use.

If the Bills like BTJ more than a guy like Mitchell or whoever......I trust Beane.

But that's an awesome mock for us. I love the double-dip at WR (especially who we got).....love the future C in Limmer too. I'd love it if that's the way it went.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Projected trade: Bills trade picks Nos. 28, 133, 144 and a 2025 second-rounder to the Jaguars for No. 17

Value evaluation

Pick 17: 950

Bills trade package is worth:
28: 660
133: 39.5
144: 34
2025 2nd, with a mid-third round value: 190. With a mid 2nd round value: 420

My way: 923.5
@Jim Bob way: 1,154.5

Personally, if Beane is going to do this, I'd just trade 28 and 60 (960 value), allow yourself trade up room from the 4th round, and keep the 2025 picks. Or see if they would take the Athletic trade with a 2025 3rd instead of the 2nd.

 

[Zman5778]

Projected trade: Bills trade picks Nos. 28, 133, 144 and a 2025 second-rounder to the Jaguars for No. 17

Value evaluation

Pick 17: 950

Bills trade package is worth:
28: 660
133: 39.5
144: 34
2025 2nd, with a mid-third round value: 190. With a mid 2nd round value: 420

My way: 923.5
@Jim Bob way: 1,154.5

Personally, if Beane is going to do this, I'd just trade 28 and 60 (960 value), allow yourself trade up room from the 4th round, and keep the 2025 picks. Or see if they would take the Athletic trade with a 2025 3rd instead of the 2nd.

I'd much much much much rather keep 60 this year and deal one of the 2025 2nd rounders. We can get a legit starter at 60.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I'd much much much much rather keep 60 this year and deal one of the 2025 2nd rounders. We can get a legit starter at 60.

Sure, that's true.

I'd rather see Beane get 2 first rounders next season. Minnesota is going to suck, so Beane could make an easy trade up and grab two 1st next season.

I know it's a crazy early projection, but imagine Beane uses the 1st and their own 2nd to get Mason Graham, DT from Michigan, and then the Vikings 2nd and 3rd to get Jack Sawyer, DE from Ohio State. Literally rebuilds the DL with two high end talents. I easy take that type of draft over what I could draft at 60.

 

[Husko]

Slander is part of lying season.

Exactly. Less we forget that the Bills themselves were behind the narrative that Cordy Glenn couldn't play tackle.

 

[Husko]

Friends, if you'd be so inclined, and can forgive the self-promotion, I'd love if you would consider following me on my new medium page. I plan on writing about a lot, including tv and books, but notably for y'all, the Bills (and maybe if I'm in a bad mood the Sabres). I don't have any sports content up yet, but hope to do one or two on the magic of the draft in the next month. Maybe I'll even do a post on our big board project when it's done. Here's the link to my intro post. Appreciate any follows, likes, or comments I can get. Thanks!

 

[Rowley Birkin]

If we're talking about a potential move up scenario... I'm much more interested in moving up from #60 than i am from #28.

Imagine that a can't miss player falls to #28 (most realistically for me this would be DeJean). If I'm Beane I'd run up to make that pick & then figure out how i could get up from #60 to grab my choice of that B tier of WRs.

Coming away from this draft with an impact player on D like DeJean AND the WR i wanted (who might be a reach at #28) would be just about as big of a win as possible.

 

[Der Jaeger]

If Worthy isn't going to fit into the 1st, I'd make a small trade down and take him. I'd rather have Worthy than trade up for Thomas or Mitchell. I think his speed is an elite trait which could do what Brady and Allen need.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

If Worthy isn't going to fit into the 1st, I'd make a small trade down and take him. I'd rather have Worthy than trade up for Thomas or Mitchell. I think his speed is an elite trait which could do what Brady and Allen need.

There are so many cases where guys whose only major trait is speed, they end up busting. He's going to be over drafted IMO. Hope it isn't us...

But going back to the scenario i posted immediately above - if Worthy was one of the guys slated to go early / mid R2 AND there was a can't miss player available at #28 - would it not make sense to take your guy at #28 then move up from #60 to #40ish to take your WR?

I'm going to study the value chart & play with the draft simulator...

 

[Husko]

There are so many cases where guys whose only major trait is speed, they end up busting. He's going to be over drafted IMO. Hope it isn't us...

But going back to the scenario i posted immediately above - if Worthy was one of the guys slated to go early / mid R2 AND there was a can't miss player available at #28 - would it not make sense to take your guy at #28 then move up from #60 to #40ish to take your WR?

I'm going to study the value chart & play with the draft simulator...

I actually wonder if he doesn't. I feel like a lot of those guys fall further than folks expect, like Hyatt.

 

[Husko]

2024 HF Bills Big Board 23

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With 100% of the vote, Barton gets the win. Kool-Aid and Frazier added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 23

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)
22. Graham Barton, OL, Duke (100%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 23

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[truthbluth]

I actually wonder if he doesn't. I feel like a lot of those guys fall further than folks expect, like Hyatt.

From a profile perspective, BJT (obvs he's better) is a better comp to Hyatt than Worthy. Worthy worked in breaking and out breaking routes a bunch in college, unlike Hyatt, who ran like 40% 9 routes or something. I'll have to dig up the RP profile on Hyatt but it was bleak. Worthy is going in the 1st. Only knock on him at this point is weight. But he plays way tougher than you'd expect at his size.

BTW, I'm officially off the AD Mitchell train. He's now on my do not draft list.

New WR rankings (for the Bills)

1st rounders

1. MHJ
2. RO
3. Malik Nabers
4. BJT
5. Worthy
6. McConkey
7. Legette
8. Pearsall
9. Franklin
-----------------------
2nd rounders
10. Polk
11. Walker
12. Baker
13. Washington
14. Wilson
-----------------------

 

[Der Jaeger]

There are so many cases where guys whose only major trait is speed, they end up busting. He's going to be over drafted IMO. Hope it isn't us...

But going back to the scenario i posted immediately above - if Worthy was one of the guys slated to go early / mid R2 AND there was a can't miss player available at #28 - would it not make sense to take your guy at #28 then move up from #60 to #40ish to take your WR?

I'm going to study the value chart & play with the draft simulator...

I'm working mocks now to try to get a feel for his range.

I actually wonder if he doesn't. I feel like a lot of those guys fall further than folks expect, like Hyatt.

That's who I was thinking about.

 

[Husko]

From a profile perspective, BJT (obvs he's better) is a better comp to Hyatt than Worthy. Worthy worked in breaking and out breaking routes a bunch in college, unlike Hyatt, who ran like 40% 9 routes or something. I'll have to dig up the RP profile on Hyatt but it was bleak. Worthy is going in the 1st. Only knock on him at this point is weight. But he plays way tougher than you'd expect at his size.

BTW, I'm officially off the AD Mitchell train. He's now on my do not draft list.

New WR rankings (for the Bills)

1st rounders

1. MHJ
2. RO
3. Malik Nabers
4. BJT
5. Worthy
6. McConkey
7. Legette
8. Pearsall
9. Franklin
-----------------------
2nd rounders
10. Polk
11. Walker
12. Baker
13. Washington
14. Wilson
-----------------------

I'd be eager to compare their various reception perceptions if you do find them. Out on Mitchell ebcause of the angry Diabetes stuff?

 

[SundherDome]

It

I follow the historical data and the reporting that GMs do devalue future picks.

Just doesn't make sense why a GM would allow their high end pick to be devalued when trading with another GM.

 

[misterchainsaw]

It

Just doesn't make sense why a GM would allow their high end pick to be devalued when trading with another GM.

Less chance of the GM (on either side) being there when it comes time to make that pick.

 

[truthbluth]

I'd be eager to compare their various reception perceptions if you do find them. Out on Mitchell ebcause of the angry Diabetes stuff?

Yeah. A diabetic that's lazy with meds isn't long for the league. Diabetes in the fam. Only people totally on top of that shit fare well.

 

[Husko]

Yeah. A diabetic that's lazy with meds isn't long for the league. Diabetes in the fam. Only people totally on top of that shit fare well.

I'm always skeptical of negatives like this that come out so late in the process, though. Don't know the extent it's true and not being used to make him fall.

 

[truthbluth]

I'm always skeptical of negatives like this that come out so late in the process, though. Don't know the extent it's true and not being used to make him fall.

I hope so. We'll find out Thursday