Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

It's not really about #1, #2, but I am not convinced Worthy can consistently win on the outside enough to be an every down X. Hill wins ever where on the field. He's so good on the line against press because the big corners just can't get their hand on him. Worthy is not like that at all. I just dislike any comp between these two. KC doesn't need a one, but they do need an X.

FWIW, lots of insider-type mock drafters have Worthy going very high. Would not be a surprise to see him as the 4th or 5th WR off the board and ahead of the Bills. We'll see.

I could see a team like KC liking Worthy because of the speed and the fact that Texas moved him around a lot last season (he had a 60%/40% split of wide to slot snaps on passing plays) and there are plenty of teams that are looking for that kind of versatility from WRs.

The Bills are a team that could lean into that "moveable chess piece" WRs, as well. Shakir and Samuel can move around along with Kincaid and Cook. That could mean that instead of a traditional X WR like many think they need, they go with a guy that they can move around like McConkey or Worthy, for instance.

Time will tell who both teams like in a couple of weeks.

 

[Selanne00008]

Field Yates 2 Rnd Mock

2024 NFL draft: ESPN's Field Yates sends Bills two playmakers in mock

With the 2024 NFL draft inching closer, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates teamed up and completed an alternating mock. The two went back-and-forth making selections though the first three …

billswire.usatoday.com

Skurski has Bills Trading up to 9

Mock Draft II: Bills make a bold move up the board

Here is The Buffalo News’ second mock draft of the season – highlighted by a bold move up the board by Bills General Manager Brandon Beane.

buffalonews.com

If this is 'all it took' to move to #9 with Chicago. I'm down for it.

"Knowing that, here’s my offer: No. 28 in the first round, No. 128 overall in the fourth round, No. 200 in the sixth round and my first-round pick in 2025"

The late first rounder is the only one that really stings there, and it's nearly replenished by an early 2nd from Minnesota.

I've softened on wanting to move up. The supply is so high on WR talent, the demand for paying for a true #1 should go down in future years. I don't mind throwing two darts at the board and possibly trading back.

But, that seems like a decent trade if the Bears were to agree.

 

[Jim Bob]

If this is 'all it took' to move to #9 with Chicago. I'm down for it.

"Knowing that, here’s my offer: No. 28 in the first round, No. 128 overall in the fourth round, No. 200 in the sixth round and my first-round pick in 2025"

The late first rounder is the only one that really stings there, and it's nearly replenished by an early 2nd from Minnesota.

I've softened on wanting to move up. The supply is so high on WR talent, the demand for paying for a true #1 should go down in future years. I don't mind throwing two darts at the board and possibly trading back.

But, that seems like a decent trade if the Bears were to agree.

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

I believe that offer to Chicago for the 9th pick is really light.

According to the Rich Hill chart, the 9th pick is worth 387 pts. 28 (209), 128 (19), and 200 (5) add up to 233 pts. I would be surprised if Chicago valued the Bills '25 1st as the same as the 38th (157) or 39th (153) pick in this draft. Waiting the whole year impacts the value way more than that. My guess is that the Bills would have to add the 60th pick (88) to the offer to get Chicago to bite.

 

[Husko]

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

Decisive win for Fautanu, who comes off the board with 60% of the vote. Going to start adding most folks who get votes, since we're approaching the end game. Guyotn, Morgan, and Kneeland all added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

 

[SundherDome]

2024 NFL Trade Value Chart

I believe that offer to Chicago for the 9th pick is really light.

According to the Rich Hill chart, the 9th pick is worth 387 pts. 28 (209), 128 (19), and 200 (5) add up to 233 pts. I would be surprised if Chicago valued the Bills '25 1st as the same as the 38th (157) or 39th (153) pick in this draft. Waiting the whole year impacts the value way more than that. My guess is that the Bills would have to add the 60th pick (88) to the offer to get Chicago to bite.

Lowest value that 2025 first would have is 184.

So 209+184+19+5 = 417

9th pick is 387, so if should be fairly close. Most teams have a large overpay to move into the top 10.

Chicago just has to figure out if two (potentially late) 1st round picks are worth it to move back 19 spots. If I'm Chicago, there is too much high quality talent and they have a lot of holes.

 

[Selanne00008]

Lowest value that 2025 first would have is 184.

So 209+184+19+5 = 417

9th pick is 387, so if should be fairly close. Most teams have a large overpay to move into the top 10.

Chicago just has to figure out if two (potentially late) 1st round picks are worth it to move back 19 spots. If I'm Chicago, there is too much high quality talent and they have a lot of holes.

But if you drop it down one whole grade. What's the value of a mid 2nd round pick? And that's the value you might want to put on a 2025 1st rounder is what he is saying..

I did think it was a little light. Which is why I was like oh that's all? Lets do it.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

There's more to it than that.

Von Miller is an aspiring front office executive. He's been shadowing Beane. There's no way he gives out that information..... unless there's a reason. And the reason isn't to drum up trade partners.

All the "draft gurus" out there miss the point that they have one board. There are 32 boards. Who would've ever imagined Beane walks out of last year's draft with Dalton Kincaid? But we don't know Beane's board, or the board of the other 31 teams.

There's so much behind the scenes works that none of us will ever know. We see game play and combine numbers, and then watch the draft off the ESPN or NFL Network boards, and think we can properly analyze the picks.

We have no access to interviews, what coaches think, any of the team visits, etc.

Imagine Brian Thomas or Ladd McConkey come into visit and have a terrible interviews, seem unprepared, and say dumb things like "I don't want to play in the cold." We'll never know that. We'll just see Beane pass on those players and think he's a moron. But we are making judgments with maybe 50% of the available information a team has.

And then, even after that, there's no guarantee that teams will trade with Beane. He can call the Giants all he wants and try to get pick 6 to get a receiver. But if they are set and making their pick, that's not Beane's fault.

I got to see the inside of this process from a team perspective. What we talk about on this board is really talking about players with 50% of the information we need to make informed decisions. None of us have any clue what the available possibilities are and what teams are thinking.

Here's an example. What if Beane and the team are absolutely sold on Xavier Legette at receiver. They've done probably about 10K AI supported mock drafts at this point. They know what his range is pretty well. Beane has Legette ranked a lot higher than most teams based on the Bills board. So he passes on a trade up and makes a small trade down to get the 3rd round pick back he doesn't have. He then takes Legette.

Some people on this board are going to lose their minds. But what if Beane had him rated as a 1- but knew from AI mocks that he wasn't universally rated that way? So he trades down and still gets a 1- talent. And we'll never know that type of information.

Things that Beane has that no one here has:
- An entire scouting department who watches games and knows a lot more about football than we do
- A coaching staff who also review games
- Interviews with college coaches, college friends, family, etc. to gain an understanding of a player's character
- Interview results from the combine
- Results from 30 player visits
- Around 10K AI supported mock drafts

We should be patient and see what happens. Beane and McDermott took this team from a 17 year drought to perrenial contender. They didn't luck into that. They know what they are doing.

It doesn't even have to be something that's so completely behind closed doors. The most annoyed I've ever been watching an NFL draft was when JOK slid a few years ago. Seemed like the perfect pick. But Beane also passed on him. Turned out that there was a pretty serious health concern with him that nobody had reported / no media were aware of. Seems that it didn't stop him from becoming a very good player - but most things tend to happen for a good reason.

He should specifically be scared of KC jumping up for AD Mitchell.

I don't know why many of you guys are so paranoid about KC. On the whole they have been great at drafting - but they have certainly not been great at evaluating WRs since drafting Hill.

Yet at the same time, that hasn't stopped them winning...

I dunno. I could see KC falling in love with Worthy, seeing him as the "next Tyreek Hill".

Somebody will - but not necessarily KC.

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

Decisive win for Fautanu, who comes off the board with 60% of the vote. Going to start adding most folks who get votes, since we're approaching the end game. Guyotn, Morgan, and Kneeland all added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)
6. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State (40%)
6. Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA (40%)
8. Brian Thomas Junior, WR, LSU (40%)
9. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon (40%)
9. Jared Verse, DE, Florida State (40%)
11. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (50%)
12. Cooper Dejean, DB, Iowa (50%)
13. Byron Murphy, DT, Texas (40%)
14. Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon (25%)
14. JC Latham, OT, Alabama (25%)
14. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama (25%)
14. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo (25%)
18. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (75%)
19. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois (40%)
20. Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia (50%)
21. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington (60%)

2024 HF Bills Big Board 22

Vote for who you would want the Bills to select.

forms.gle

Vote Barton.

The add is really tough once again. I hate the idea of taking a corner so early - but McKinstry is high floor R1 talent & a good scheme fit. Nobody else left is close to that.

 

[Jim Bob]

Lowest value that 2025 first would have is 184.

So 209+184+19+5 = 417

9th pick is 387, so if should be fairly close. Most teams have a large overpay to move into the top 10.

Chicago just has to figure out if two (potentially late) 1st round picks are worth it to move back 19 spots. If I'm Chicago, there is too much high quality talent and they have a lot of holes.

Going by historical data, future picks tend to get downgraded a whole round in value.

That is why most trade ideas I see tend to favor the team giving up future picks by a lot.

Personally, I would not be thrilled if they gave up 3 of their 5 1st & 2nd round picks in the '24 & '25 drafts that they have today in a move up for one guy.

Team building is about way more than just one WR.

I would much rather hold onto their '25 1st and both 2nds, take one WR on Day 1 or 2 of the draft, take a 2nd one on day 3, and then roll with that for 2024.

Trading up in 2025 with 3 picks in the first two rounds will be more intriguing to me.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Boyd profiles as Jordan Phillips.

Trade value according to the old chart:
28 overall: 660
60: 300
128: 44
133: 39.5

2025 1st: mid 1st value of 1000 (16th overall pick in any draft)
2025 2nd' mid 2nd value of 420 (48th overall pick in any draft)

6th overall (NY Giants): 1600. Would require 28th overall and next year's 1st. Giants will ask for more since the Bills are the ones asking for the trade.

8th overall (Atlanta): 1400. Would require 28th overall, 60 overall, 2025 2nd, and more.

9th overall (Chicago): 1350. About the same as pick 8.

 

[Selanne00008]

Boyd profiles as Jordan Phillips.

Trade value according to the old chart:
28 overall: 660
60: 300
128: 44
133: 39.5

2025 1st: mid 1st value of 1000 (16th overall pick in any draft)
2025 2nd' mid 2nd value of 420 (48th overall pick in any draft)

6th overall (NY Giants): 1600. Would require 28th overall and next year's 1st. Giants will ask for more since the Bills are the ones asking for the trade.

8th overall (Atlanta): 1400. Would require 28th overall, 60 overall, 2025 2nd, and more.

9th overall (Chicago): 1350. About the same as pick 8.

Wouldn't the Giants ask for more form an NFC team, especially NFC East? Why the Bills? If anything I would think they would play nice in the sand box with us..

 

[Jim Bob]

Trade value according to the old chart:
28 overall: 660
60: 300
128: 44
133: 39.5

2025 1st: mid 1st value of 1000 (16th overall pick in any draft)
2025 2nd' mid 2nd value of 420 (48th overall pick in any draft)

6th overall (NY Giants): 1600. Would require 28th overall and next year's 1st. Giants will ask for more since the Bills are the ones asking for the trade.

8th overall (Atlanta): 1400. Would require 28th overall, 60 overall, 2025 2nd, and more.

9th overall (Chicago): 1350. About the same as pick 8.

That does not match historic data using future picks.

2023 NFL Draft Pick Transactions

Last year, it cost Houston 12, 33, '24 1st and '24 3rd for 3 & 105.

2011 NFL Draft Pick Transactions

And there is the Julio Jones trade that cost Atlanta 26, 59, 124, future 1st, & future 4th for 6.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Wouldn't the Giants ask for more form an NFC team, especially NFC East? Why the Bills? If anything I would think they would play nice in the sand box with us..

On draft day, that does matter, but it still won't deter a team from asking for more.

If Beane calls, the team at that pick will try to get Beane to overpay. See below on the price Houston overpaid.

That does not match historic data using future picks.

2023 NFL Draft Pick Transactions

Last year, it cost Houston 12, 33, '24 1st and '24 3rd for 3 & 105.

2011 NFL Draft Pick Transactions

And there is the Julio Jones trade that cost Atlanta 26, 59, 124, future 1st, & future 4th for 6.

Houston traded 2,970 to get that package, which cost 2,284. Houston also initiated the trade, so that's going to drive the price up. Houston overpaid by a late 1st to get Will Anderson.

Is that now the going rate, or is that what the Cardinals said they'd accept, or take Anderson themselves?

I expect that if Beane really wants to get that high he's going to have to overpay. I'm not really of fan of that.

 

[Selanne00008]

On draft day, that does matter, but it still won't deter a team from asking for more.

If Beane calls, the team at that pick will try to get Beane to overpay. See below on the price Houston overpaid.

Houston traded 2,970 to get that package, which cost 2,284. Houston also initiated the trade, so that's going to drive the price up. Houston overpaid by a late 1st to get Will Anderson.

Is that now the going rate, or is that what the Cardinals said they'd accept, or take Anderson themselves?

I expect that if Beane really wants to get that high he's going to have to overpay. I'm not really of fan of that.

Ahh ok. Sorry I thought you meant the Giants wouldn't want to deal with the Bills specifically. Carry on..

 

[SundherDome]

Going by historical data, future picks tend to get downgraded a whole round in value.

That is why most trade ideas I see tend to favor the team giving up future picks by a lot.

Personally, I would not be thrilled if they gave up 3 of their 5 1st & 2nd round picks in the '24 & '25 drafts that they have today in a move up for one guy.

Team building is about way more than just one WR.

I would much rather hold onto their '25 1st and both 2nds, take one WR on Day 1 or 2 of the draft, take a 2nd one on day 3, and then roll with that for 2024.

Trading up in 2025 with 3 picks in the first two rounds will be more intriguing to me.

I don't personally buy into the pick next year devaluation, especially in the first round or two. 5th round pick, sure. A first is a first no matter the year, now gambling to see where the puck ends up is the real gamble. If I am Chicago, you have two top ten picks, zero reason to trade down 19 spots to gain another one in a year. I'd honestly take Williams and then try to make a deal to hop in front of Tennessee for Alt.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Schrager Mock

Peter Schrager 2024 NFL mock draft 1.0: Giants leap up for J.J. McCarthy; Vikings stick and pick CB, QB

In his first mock of the 2024 NFL Draft, Peter Schrager has the Giants trading up for QB J.J. McCarthy. Meanwhile, the Vikings come away with a cornerback, as well as a quarterback of their own. Check out the full first-round forecast, 1-32.

www.nfl.com

If those 3 WR are at the bottom of the first, I wonder who the Bill's rate higher ? My guess is Ladd.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't personally buy into the pick next year devaluation, especially in the first round or two. 5th round pick, sure. A first is a first no matter the year, now gambling to see where the puck ends up is the real gamble. If I am Chicago, you have two top ten picks, zero reason to trade down 19 spots to gain another one in a year. I'd honestly take Williams and then try to make a deal to hop in front of Tennessee for Alt.

I follow the historical data and the reporting that GMs do devalue future picks.

 

[Jim Bob]

Houston traded 2,970 to get that package, which cost 2,284. Houston also initiated the trade, so that's going to drive the price up. Houston overpaid by a late 1st to get Will Anderson.

Is that now the going rate, or is that what the Cardinals said they'd accept, or take Anderson themselves?

I expect that if Beane really wants to get that high he's going to have to overpay. I'm not really of fan of that.

It is an overpay only if you don't devalue the future picks by one round. If you do that, Houston gave up only slightly more than the value of the pick.

 

[Jim Bob]

Dane Brugler's 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Predicting all 257 picks

How will this year's NFL Draft play out? Here's one guess at every pick, across all seven rounds.

theathletic.com

17. Buffalo Bills (from JAX)*: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU​

(Projected trade: Bills trade picks Nos. 28, 133, 144 and a 2025 second-rounder to the Jaguars for No. 17.)

The Bills need their draft picks to remodel the roster with young, low-priced depth, but general manager Brandon Beane is an aggressive drafter and has never shied away from moving up in the first round to get his guy. Thomas is an outstanding size/speed athlete with better route-running skill than given he’s credit for, and he’d give Josh Allen a new WR1 on offense.

I would hate giving up that much to go up 11 picks to get BTJ.

Buffalo Bills​

1 (17). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
2 (60). Cole Bishop, S, Utah
4 (128). Javon Baker, WR, UCF
5 (160). Beaux Limmer, G/C, Arkansas
5 (163). Nelson Ceaser III, Edge, Houston
6 (200). Tyler Davis, DT, Clemson
6 (204). Ethan Driskell, OT, Marshall
7 (248). Kimani Vidal, RB, Troy

I like the class in general, especially Bishop, Baker, and Vidal.

 

[Jim Bob]

NFL teams know the best way to draft, so why aren't they doing it?

Only a few teams are curious enough to think differently, and even fewer are disciplined enough to act differently.

theathletic.com

And what were the findings after examining every draft pick and trade from 1988 to 2004?

Teams massively overestimate their abilities to delineate between stars and flops, and because of that they heavily overvalue the “right to choose” in the draft.

Meers combed through the paper and uncovered some highlights:

• The treasured No. 1 pick in the draft is actually the least valuable in the first round, according to the surplus value a team can create with each pick.
• Across all rounds, the probability that a player starts more games than the next player chosen at his position is just 53 percent.
• Teams generated a 174 percent return on trades by forgoing a pick this year for picks next year.

Thaler and Massey suggested that teams should accumulate picks by trading back and into the future more often. The more darts you have, the better your chance of eventually hitting the bull’s-eye.

Trading back and especially trading back and adding future draft picks is the better way to go than trading up and especially using future picks to trade up.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I follow the historical data and the reporting that GMs do devalue future picks.

It makes sense, too. They have to wait another year before getting a young player to develop. That should impact value. Also, the uncertainty of where a team will draft plays a role, too.

 

[Husko]

NFL teams know the best way to draft, so why aren't they doing it?

Only a few teams are curious enough to think differently, and even fewer are disciplined enough to act differently.

theathletic.com

Trading back and especially trading back and adding future draft picks is the better way to go than trading up and especially using future picks to trade up.

I agree in general. The big thing I think conclusions like the author reaches miss is that for teams with well-stocked rosters you just don't have the roster space to make that many picks. I totally agree with the sentiment that making more picks boosts your chance of hitting on one. But it's not like this is madden where you find out their overall rating by cut down date. You need to actually have space on your roster to keep all those picks around.

 

[Jim Bob]

I agree in general. The big thing I think conclusions like the author reaches miss is that for teams with well-stocked rosters you just don't have the roster space to make that many picks. I totally agree with the sentiment that making more picks boosts your chance of hitting on one. But it's not like this is madden where you find out their overall rating by cut down date. You need to actually have space on your roster to keep all those picks around.

True.

I think the other big thing is knowing where talent cliffs occur.

This draft is a good example. A lot of people feel like this will be a rougher than usual day 3 of the draft due to a variety of reasons. I think the Bills would be well served by getting 1 or 2 more top 100 picks by both moving back from 28 and seeing if they can package some day three picks for a 3rd rounder.

If they have only 1 or 2 top 100 picks this year and make 6+ on Day 3, that will be less than ideal.

 

[Husko]

True.

I think the other big thing is knowing where talent cliffs occur.

This draft is a good example. A lot of people feel like this will be a rougher than usual day 3 of the draft due to a variety of reasons. I think the Bills would be well served by getting 1 or 2 more top 100 picks by both moving back from 28 and seeing if they can package some day three picks for a 3rd rounder.

If they have only 1 or 2 top 100 picks this year and make 6+ on Day 3, that will be less than ideal.

I agree. I'd love to see some of our surplus day 3 picks used to acquire more top 120ish picks.

 

[Fezzy126]

Dane Brugler's 7-round 2024 NFL mock draft: Predicting all 257 picks

How will this year's NFL Draft play out? Here's one guess at every pick, across all seven rounds.

theathletic.com

I would hate giving up that much to go up 11 picks to get BTJ.



I like the class in general, especially Bishop, Baker, and Vidal.

I'd be very happy if the draft fell this way. It actually matches a lot of my own mocks; the WRs, Bishop, Limmer, and Vidal are all guys I frequently target.

The only minor difference is I usually grab one of Johnson, Kamara, or Solomon instead of Ceasar, but he has 2 of the 3 getting drafted earlier.