Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[brian_griffin]

I don't really see it as "jumping" them. We were a play away from beating them with half our defense injured. Not an excuse, just an observation that they were right there with them this year. Any given year they can break through with Allen going on a heater. Just need to hope it actually happens.

That said, I agree. It's unlikely this coming year is the one where we see marked improvement to the roster. Hopefully we just get a lot younger, and then 2025 they can have some stars emerging year 2.


They're going to be forced to finally play some kids. And honestly I think they'll be better for it. My new theory is one of the reasons we've struggled to find impact players is we have too many average vets in the way of seeing what we've really got with our youth. Won't be a problem this year.

Wholly agree. KC is not head and shoulders above BUF (or SF, and even add CIN & PHI, DET & BAL to that list). Any given matchup among those teams on any given week, regular season and playoffs, will largely be determined by a small number of individual player matchups, absolutely affected by pre-game and in-game injuries, preceding week's schedule / days of rest, home field, coaching/clock management, and the officials. There just aren't that massive talent gaps at the top anymore in the current cap era with the rules favoring the offense and hindering the defense.

This Mahomes / Chiefs dynasty talk is the same Brady / Belichik / Pats talk. None of the Patriot SB wins can be considered dominating, IMO. Wins by 3, 3, 3, 4, 6*, 10** points and losses by 3, 4, and a delicious 8 when the Eagles stomped them.

(* in OT after the Falcons inexplicably stopped running the ball up 25 points with <24 min remaining in the game, and up 19 points entering the 4th quarter)

(** the Stupor Bowl snooze-fest between the Pats and Rams)

 

[Husko]

I don't really see that being the case.

They have had plenty of young impact players, especially this year with Kincaid and Torrence being day 1 starters and Bernard and Cook being impact players in year 2.

The biggest issue they have had with impact is that their draft misses or underinvestment have been consolidated in positions that are becoming huge needs. Epenesa and Basham did not become impact players because of average vets in front of them, for instance.

I think maybe where we're disagreeing on is impact. A general issue with the Bills the last few years is lack of true high-end difference makers. All-pro or near that level talents. Of the players you listed, Bernard is the only one that has played at that level thus far, in my opinion. We've for years had a lot of good and not enough great. There's a lot of reasons for that, but I think one reason could be we're just not throwing as many kids into playing time, and therefore have less chances at genuine hits. I think as we're forced to play more kids, we'll have more big hits, just by virtue of numbers.

Even in his best year, he was down the depth chart at DE and it wasn't because mediocre vets were in the way. It was because AJ did not outplay guys and created the need to sign vet FAs like Lawson and Miller.

I think AJ has been better than a lot recognize. He's had a very good pressure rate for a couple years and his sack to snap rate is very good. If he played more snaps he'd probably hit double digit sacks. The biggest issue with him is that his run defense has never recovered from the Bills making him lose all that weight and turning into a speed rusher.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think maybe where we're disagreeing on is impact. A general issue with the Bills the last few years is lack of true high-end difference makers. All-pro or near that level talents. Of the players you listed, Bernard is the only one that has played at that level thus far, in my opinion. We've for years had a lot of good and not enough great. There's a lot of reasons for that, but I think one reason could be we're just not throwing as many kids into playing time, and therefore have less chances at genuine hits. I think as we're forced to play more kids, we'll have more big hits, just by virtue of numbers.


I think AJ has been better than a lot recognize. He's had a very good pressure rate for a couple years and his sack to snap rate is very good. If he played more snaps he'd probably hit double digit sacks. The biggest issue with him is that his run defense has never recovered from the Bills making him lose all that weight and turning into a speed rusher.

I don't buy this logic. The key is do they draft the right guys or not. Drafting the wrong guys and having to play them will not make them into All-Pros.

And playing more does not guarantee the efficiency they have in depth roles projects out with added playing time. Gabe Davis was a good example of that. He was more efficient as a 3rd boundary WR that played a role. When he was given a high volume WR2 role, he wasn't as efficient and the offense was non-optimal because of it.

I think we will likely see the same thing from Epenesa when he moves to another team. I bet he lands somewhere that makes him a starter and he gets more snaps. And his efficiency dips because he is a good rotational depth guy. But, he's not a 10+ sack starting DE.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think SF had a very good defensive strategy against the Chiefs. Losing Greenlaw hurt but I think they did well most of the game. 19 points in regulation is doing pretty well.

Steve Wilks used a Spagnuolo strategy where he moved a DE into DT on passing downs. Gregory was there a bit and Armstead, who is sort of a DE-DT tweener, was in that position as well. It helps having a A-grade rusher like Bosa to tear things up, but overall moving Mahomes off the spot and speeding up his decision making using a 4 man front had some good effects.

SF could not score enough to get up on the Chiefs, but I think it was a good strategy. Rousseau can already slide inside to DT, and if Miller is healthy, getting another rusher in the equation could be a way to replicate.

 

[Jim Bob]

The former UB OC who has previous ties to Joe Brady and was hired as an offensive assistant after Brady was named interim OC mid-season is staying around.

 

[Selanne00008]

What does an OC QC coach do on a day to day? Making sure shifts and presnap lineup is all set properly?

 

[Der Jaeger]

What does an OC QC coach do on a day to day? Making sure shifts and presnap lineup is all set properly?

Advanced scouting of opponents, looking at internal trends

 

[Ace]

Aggression is the problem. On and off the field. KC doesn’t go into soft coverage late. McDermott does. KC doesn’t limit Mahomes’s instincts. Buffalo does it to Allen in everything from roster composition to McDermott taking the ball out of his hands. KC moves ahead of us for a CB making plays in the SuperBowl…it takes multiple injuries for the guy we had to settle for as we drafted for perceived need to even see the field. And, of course, McDermott wasn’t ready to draft QB so he trades away a guy who has three championships in seven years, and has never missed a conference championship to punt for a year.

The last one they could get away with because they drafted the second best QB in the game. But the other things neutralize him just enough that Mahomes skates by him year after year. One team that constantly presses. One that constantly turtles.

They need a complete philosophical change to stop being KC’s bitch on and off the field. Stop trying to control everything…especially what you can not control like stopping Mahomes. It’s an arms race and you keep pinning one of them behind your back.

 

[Dingo44]

Aggression is the problem. On and off the field. KC doesn’t go into soft coverage late. McDermott does. KC doesn’t limit Mahomes’s instincts. Buffalo does it to Allen in everything from roster composition to McDermott taking the ball out of his hands. KC moves ahead of us for a CB making plays in the SuperBowl…it takes multiple injuries for the guy we had to settle for as we drafted for perceived need to even see the field. And, of course, McDermott wasn’t ready to draft QB so he trades away a guy who has three championships in seven years, and has never missed a conference championship to punt for a year.

The last one they could get away with because they drafted the second best QB in the game. But the other things neutralize him just enough that Mahomes skates by him year after year. One team that constantly presses. One that constantly turtles.

They need a complete philosophical change to stop being KC’s bitch on and off the field. Stop trying to control everything…especially what you can not control like stopping Mahomes. It’s an arms race and you keep pinning one of them behind your back.

Dorsey was tying Allen up - Brady set him free. I'm sure with an entire off-season and training camp to develop an Allen friendly playbook Allen will even have more success.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

From the last thread:

Posted by @misterchainsaw
The problem is the team that gets the ball first has a HUGE advantage if both teams score a td in their first possession.

The team going second is GUARANTEED an information advantage in their possession, since they know what they need.

The team going the first has a POTENTIAL advantage, depending on if the teams trade the same score on their first possessions. Even if they both score TDs, the team going 2nd could very well go for 2 (the team going first could as well, but knowing NFL coaches, they'll put the burden of going for it on the 2nd team) avoiding the third possession.

For me, the guaranteed edge is more useful than a potential edge that very well may never come to be, just like how SF never got the ball again.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Aggression is the problem. On and off the field. KC doesn’t go into soft coverage late. McDermott does. KC doesn’t limit Mahomes’s instincts. Buffalo does it to Allen in everything from roster composition to McDermott taking the ball out of his hands. KC moves ahead of us for a CB making plays in the SuperBowl…it takes multiple injuries for the guy we had to settle for as we drafted for perceived need to even see the field. And, of course, McDermott wasn’t ready to draft QB so he trades away a guy who has three championships in seven years, and has never missed a conference championship to punt for a year.

The last one they could get away with because they drafted the second best QB in the game. But the other things neutralize him just enough that Mahomes skates by him year after year. One team that constantly presses. One that constantly turtles.

They need a complete philosophical change to stop being KC’s bitch on and off the field. Stop trying to control everything…especially what you can not control like stopping Mahomes. It’s an arms race and you keep pinning one of them behind your back.

LOL.

Kansas City literally went into soft coverage on both 2nd and 3rd down against us after the two minute warning.

Tell me again how Mahomes can't be stopped in the playoffs when KC scored 19 points on 13 offensive possessions in regulation on Sunday, with the TD coming on a drive starting inside the red zone and two of the FG's were made from over 50 yards.

I'm not even touching the rest of this moronic rant.

 

[Husko]

What does an OC QC coach do on a day to day? Making sure shifts and presnap lineup is all set properly?

QC tends to be a lot of self scouting, looking at trends etc.

"Hey Joe, looks like on third and medium you call play action on 65% of plays out of jumbo packages. Weeks 1-4 that had a 75% success rate but weeks 5-8 we've dipped below 50%. Teams might be catching on."

The numbers will obviously be a lot more nuanced and wide breadth than that.

 

[Jim Bob]

QC tends to be a lot of self scouting, looking at trends etc.

"Hey Joe, looks like on third and medium you call play action on 65% of plays out of jumbo packages. Weeks 1-4 that had a 75% success rate but weeks 5-8 we've dipped below 50%. Teams might be catching on."

The numbers will obviously be a lot more nuanced and wide breadth than that.

They also do a lot of the video clip prep for meetings.

 

[Jim Bob]

Someone else's WR is starting the offseason with social media driven drama.

 

[Jim Bob]

In the playoffs, the KC defense gave up:

7 pts to Miami
24 pts to Buffalo
10 pts to Baltimore
22 pts to SF

Tua, Lamar, & Purdy combined for 3 total TDs.

Josh Allen had 3 total TDs.

One of these things is not like the other.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Players I like by round:

1st round, players that would have to drop:
- Jackson Power-Johnson, C Oregon. Powerful and athletic. He's big enough to anchor against big DTs.
- Jared Verse, DE FSU. Athletic and powerful off the edge.
- Laiatu Latu, DE UCLA. Significant medical issues which need to be checked out, but his hand use is the best of any prospect I've watched in a long time.
- Cooper DeJean, DB Iowa. CB athleticism and S size.

1st round, players who are feasibly there at 28:
- Darius Robinson, DE Missouri. Reminds me of Justin Tuck with his size and mobility. Super violent.
- Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona. Athletic LT.
- T'Vondre Sweat, DT Texas. He'd have a Ted Washington, Vince Wilfork effect on the defense.
- Graham Barton, OL Duke. Old school attitude with athleticism. Future center.
- Kamren Kinchens, S Miami, Fla. His best attribute is his mind.

2nd round, players who would have to fall to 60 or Bills trade up:
- Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota. Good in zone coverage and hits like a young Steve Atwater.

2nd round, should be there around 60:
- Marshawn Kneeland, DE Western Michigan. Power rusher with length and violence. Intense.
- Patrick Paul, OT Houston. His LT size and feet, but needs a lot of refinement.

3rd round, players who would need to fall to 99 or Bills trade up:
- Roman Wilson, WR Michigan. Shorter but a fast outside receiver who moves his body well.
- Kiran Amegadjie, OT Yale. I just started watching him about a week ago. Very light feet for someone so big.
- Brendan Rice, WR USC. My favorite prospect in the draft, emerging vertical threat as an X receiver.

3rd round, should be there around 99:
- Cole Bishop, S Utah. Smart and can play both positions.
- Audric Estime, RB Notre Dame. Power runner with size, runs through contact.
- McKinnley Jackson, DT Texas A&M. Fire hydrant NT with athleticism.
- James Williams, S Miami, Fla. Tall safety who can move.

 

[Jim Bob]

Players I like by round:

1st round, players that would have to drop:
- Jackson Power-Johnson, C Oregon. Powerful and athletic. He's big enough to anchor against big DTs.
- Jared Verse, DE FSU. Athletic and powerful off the edge.
- Laiatu Latu, DE UCLA. Significant medical issues which need to be checked out, but his hand use is the best of any prospect I've watched in a long time.
- Cooper DeJean, DB Iowa. CB athleticism and S size.

1st round, players who are feasibly there at 28:
- Darius Robinson, DE Missouri. Reminds me of Justin Tuck with his size and mobility. Super violent.
- Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona. Athletic LT.
- T'Vondre Sweat, DT Texas. He'd have a Ted Washington, Vince Wilfork effect on the defense.
- Graham Barton, OL Duke. Old school attitude with athleticism. Future center.
- Kamren Kinchens, S Miami, Fla. His best attribute is his mind.

2nd round, players who would have to fall to 60 or Bills trade up:
- Tyler Nubin, S Minnesota. Good in zone coverage and hits like a young Steve Atwater.

2nd round, should be there around 60:
- Marshawn Kneeland, DE Western Michigan. Power rusher with length and violence. Intense.
- Patrick Paul, OT Houston. His LT size and feet, but needs a lot of refinement.

3rd round, players who would need to fall to 99 or Bills trade up:
- Roman Wilson, WR Michigan. Shorter but a fast outside receiver who moves his body well.
- Kiran Amegadjie, OT Yale. I just started watching him about a week ago. Very light feet for someone so big.
- Brendan Rice, WR USC. My favorite prospect in the draft, emerging vertical threat as an X receiver.

3rd round, should be there around 99:
- Cole Bishop, S Utah. Smart and can play both positions.
- Audric Estime, RB Notre Dame. Power runner with size, runs through contact.
- McKinnley Jackson, DT Texas A&M. Fire hydrant NT with athleticism.
- James Williams, S Miami, Fla. Tall safety who can move.

Roman Wilson saw a lot more action in the slot this year at Michigan than out wide.

I wonder if Beane would take a guy that had more slot usage than boundary usage with his first WR pick...

 

[Husko]

Roman Wilson saw a lot more action in the slot this year at Michigan than out wide.

View attachment 818808

I wonder if Beane would take a guy that had more slot usage than boundary usage with his first WR pick...

Yeah, most profile him as a slot guy in the NFL. It's possible he can play outside, but I think Beane will target a WR with more flexibility than Wilson.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Roman Wilson saw a lot more action in the slot this year at Michigan than out wide.

View attachment 818808

I wonder if Beane would take a guy that had more slot usage than boundary usage with his first WR pick...

Yeah, most profile him as a slot guy in the NFL. It's possible he can play outside, but I think Beane will target a WR with more flexibility than Wilson.

I'm not concerned about Wilson's college usage - or really any receiver's usage. Part of that has to do with a team's personnel at the time.

Shakir was supposed to be a slot guy and has proven to be more. Some teams want to go big slot, and go with a non-traditional slot player, more like a Z, in the slot.

A kid like Wilson uses his hand really well, and does a good job coordinating his hand and lower body movement. I'm not super concerned about usage or his ability to play outside.

 

[buffa dud]

I'm not concerned about Wilson's college usage - or really any receiver's usage. Part of that has to do with a team's personnel at the time.

Shakir was supposed to be a slot guy and has proven to be more. Some teams want to go big slot, and go with a non-traditional slot player, more like a Z, in the slot.

A kid like Wilson uses his hand really well, and does a good job coordinating his hand and lower body movement. I'm not super concerned about usage or his ability to play outside.

I'm hoping Beane prioritizes hands above all else once he and the staff start ranking these receivers. Gabe Davis was great while he was here - a consummate pro who helped win a lot of games. But in these games against the Chiefs, where the outcome is literally being determined by one or two plays, we can't afford fifty-fifty. We need automatic.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Wonder what the cost/price is on Reddick ?

Eagles' Reddick says he never requested trade

Haason Reddick said Tuesday that he never requested to be traded by the Eagles and hopes to work out an extension with the team.

www.espn.com

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm hoping Beane prioritizes hands above all else once he and the staff start ranking these receivers. Gabe Davis was great while he was here - a consummate pro who helped win a lot of games. But in these games against the Chiefs, where the outcome is literally being determined by one or two plays, we can't afford fifty-fifty. We need automatic.

Separation ability is #1 for me with hands being a close 2nd.

They need someone that can get separation down the field and make the other team's safeties respect the deep ball.

Wonder what the cost/price is on Reddick ?

Eagles' Reddick says he never requested trade

Haason Reddick said Tuesday that he never requested to be traded by the Eagles and hopes to work out an extension with the team.

www.espn.com

Haason Reddick

Haason Reddick contract and salary cap details, full contract breakdowns, salaries, signing bonus, roster bonus, dead money, and valuations.

www.spotrac.com

Likely way out of Beane's thrift shopping budget.

 

[Husko]

I'm not concerned about Wilson's college usage - or really any receiver's usage. Part of that has to do with a team's personnel at the time.

Shakir was supposed to be a slot guy and has proven to be more. Some teams want to go big slot, and go with a non-traditional slot player, more like a Z, in the slot.

A kid like Wilson uses his hand really well, and does a good job coordinating his hand and lower body movement. I'm not super concerned about usage or his ability to play outside.

He's exceeded expectations, but he's still playing most of his snaps (69%) out of the slot.

Wilson isn't super tall or physical, doesn't have deep burn speed, and is more of a quick precise route runner / zone beater. I think his ability to get open from the outside is a real concern. I definitely wouldn't be drafting him with an outside receiver profile in mind.

Separation ability is #1 for me with hands being a close 2nd.

They need someone that can get separation down the field and make the other team's safeties respect the deep ball.

Agreed. Separation, especially against man coverage, is the number one thing our WR group needs.

 

[Der Jaeger]

He's exceeded expectations, but he's still playing most of his snaps (69%) out of the slot.

Wilson isn't super tall or physical, doesn't have deep burn speed, and is more of a quick precise route runner / zone beater. I think his ability to get open from the outside is a real concern. I definitely wouldn't be drafting him with an outside receiver profile in mind.


Agreed. Separation, especially against man coverage, is the number one thing our WR group needs.

I don't disagree with you. But the precise route runner, zone beater, separation guy you're looking for is the description of Diggs. It's also the description of Shakir.

I'm less concerned with height and 40 timed speed as I am with separation and route precision. That's why I don't think Shakir is a slot guy.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Super Bowl was the highest rated television program since the Moon Landing

https://www.reuters.com/sports/nfl/super-bowl-drew-record-audience-1234-mln-viewers-across-tv-digital-cbs-says-2024-02-13/